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Latest On Peavy

9:53pm: More from Olney.  The Padres are aggressively shopping Peavy, with the Braves and Dodgers two possible suitors.  Olney's sources believe Peavy will be dealt "in the weeks ahead."  The Padres want two young pitchers and a near MLB-ready center fielder in return.  The Braves and Dodgers could both meet that demand.

7:07pm: O'Brien has a new article up; he says the Braves and Padres have discussed Peavy.  Not much is known beyond that.  Paul DePodesta offers his thoughts on the situation, basically explaining that any player should be available for a compelling return.  Thus far, the Padres haven't received a compelling offer for Peavy.

10:04am: It's early in the process, but Jake Peavy's availability has baseball fans all worked up.  As a reminder, Peavy prefers the NL.  He specifically likes Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, and St. Louis.  He considers L.A. a particularly good fit and therefore is open to the Angels.  Peavy controls his fate, as he has a full no-trade clause.  On to today's links:


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o no.... why would you even put chicago up there . even if peavy put chicago on his short list or whatever they dont have the players to get him . now we have to listen to pie trade proposals all day

Cubs:

I'd take Peavy and Greene for Theriot, Marshall and either Pie or Guzman, perhaps both. At least that's a good starting point.

"I'd take Peavy and Greene for Theriot, Marshall and either Pie or Guzman, perhaps both. At least that's a good starting point."

thats not even close to a good starting point, we are talking about a legit ace that is signed for 5 years cheaply.

i guess cubs fans dont realize that pie has no value right now he has proved that he is a average at best MLB player

MM,
That's a horrible starting point.

To be honest if I'm Kevin Towers I don't move Peavy unless I'm getting packages that start with everyone's top prospects. Atlanta that means Heyward, LA that means Kershaw, St. Louis that means Rasmus. Now I know that may not be something you want to do but KT has no reason to move Peavy unless he's getting the best possible players back and if he can't he should just keep him.

I know it's totally taboo but I would love to hear what the Dodgers proposals. If they were willing to do something like Kershaw and Kemp or Kershaw + Elbert and others it would be interesting if the Padres would listen. It would almost certainly cost more to move Peavy in the division but LA has the prospects and Peavy would be huge for them!

One can dream, haha.

San Diego's outfield is a mess, I imagine they will like to see Eithier in the trade. Do you think Eithier and Kershaw is too much?

krs1,

I don't think there's ANY way kershaw is traded after his performance as a 20-year old this season... I could see them including Kemp in a package deal that would include their top AAA prospect or perhaps McDonald.....

I think Ethier is less likely to be traded than Kemp. And yes, SD's outfield is a mess...

maybe they unload Jones, (with SD hoping last year was a fluke) pay the majority of his salary, and send McDonald or something...

Don't get me wrong, I love to jump all over Cubs fans as much as the next guy, but MM's starting point isn't all that far off; although of course it would take more.

As was mentioned, if Peavy was had 1 or 2 years left on his contract, that deal might be close, but not with 5 solid, under-value years left.

If the Cubs were looking to get this deal done, it would likely have to involve a 3rd team and Derek Lee:

Cubs get Peavy

3rd team gets Derek Lee

Padres get Theriot, Marshall and Guzman as well as a top prospect or two from the 3rd team.

Far-fetched, I know but it would take something like that to get Peavy in Cubbie Blue.

You have to give up talent in order to get talent. I just don't think the Cubs have the pieces to make it work.

My top 5 teams with the best chance to get Peavy:

1) Braves

2) Dodgers

3) Angels

4) Rays

5) Cardnals

These teams fit Peavy's criteria, have the prospects to make the deal, and the payroll flexibility. The Cards may be a stretch on the last two points, though.

Peavy to the Red Sox for Buchholz (potential #1/2 starter in the NL West), Josh Reddick (can play all 3 OF positions, best fit in RF, #3 Sox prospect)and a couple high end, low level prospects (one SP, one bat)

Beckett, Peavy, Lester, DiceK, Wake/Masterson for '09

am i the only one the has a hard time seeing the pads trade peavy to the dodgers, within the division? i think if anyone else had a comparable offer on the table, the pads would choose another team over the dodgers. with that said, i don't see the dodgers making an offer significantly better than another team. so to me, we can scratch the dodgers off the list. i think the braves are the favorite to land him. they're desperate for top-of-the-rotation pitching, they have room for the salary, and they have the prospects. also, wren has already shown that he is willing to overpay in his young gm career. to me, the teixiera and kotsay trades were mistakes immediately when they were made. they got fleeced more with texiera, but i still think, at the time, the kotsay-devine trade was much worse. a future closer for a CF with a bad back for 1 year. hated it. and the teixeira trade i speak of is the one that brought him to the braves.

if the cubs couldn't get sabathia during the regular season, and i'm pretty sure they tried, then they don't have the pieces do get peavy now. not when you'd have him for multiple years at favorable dollars.
oh, and don't paint the whole fan-base with one brush. makes you look dumb.

bigdaddyp16 - I agree with you on the Dodgers. The will need an ace, have the prospects, may have the payroll flexibility, and Peavy likes Cali. But, KT would not approve it if he can get comparable value somewhere else.

As for the trade to get Tex, that was JS, not FW.

For the Cubs, whom are in the midst of selling the franchise, this wouldn't make sense. They would probably have to choose between Peavy and Dempster...and honestly, when you look at Dempster's numbers last year and Peavy's road numbers, is that a big enough difference in order to sell the farm?

Peavy to Chicago doesn't make sense.

yeah, you're right. my mistake. still, the kotsay-devine trade is enough to show me that he isn't afraid to overpay. which isn't always a bad thing, but after the teixiera trade, i just think it's too soon to overpay again.

ok, Devine was a mess as a Brave and needed a new team before he was going to turn it around. You also leave out the fact FW pulled off Renteria for Jurrjens and Hernandez

adunc-FWIW, it doesn't look like the team's gonna get sold anytime soon, at least not before the end of this year, but it seems they're about to re-up with hendry for 3 more years (levine on espn 1000). looks like it will be business as usual this off-season (i.e. locking up wood/dempster). you think they'll take a flier on griffey to play right? not at all my ideal, but there's not much else out there and you know lou loves him...

The Cubs are not going to be able to land Greene and Peavy for junk. What do you think this is MLB 2K8? C'mon guys! Seriously! Theorit is your only good player your offering. Marshall was terrible this year until he moved to the bullpen. But he is not a great RP either. He is good but not worth of Peavy. And Felix Pie? Are you joking? This guy doesn't have much of a future in the league. At best he is a 4 OF.

"The Cubs are not going to be able to land Greene and Peavy for junk. What do you think this is MLB 2K8?"

We don't really want Greene. He has a sub .300 OBP and we have a SS with a near .400 one. Why?

"Marshall was terrible this year until he moved to the bullpen."

Marshall had a 4.15 ERA as a starter this year. Hardly Terrible from your 5th starter...I'd like to know your team's 5th starter's ERA.

"But he is not a great RP either."

Not great, but had a 3.42 ERA as a reliever.

Do research.

"And Felix Pie? Are you joking? This guy doesn't have much of a future in the league. At best he is a 4 OF. "

Maybe, you could definitely be right. He still has value though, because he minor league numbers are very good, and the Pads would be very well served to have someone that covers a TON of ground, like Pie does, in CF.

All that being said...like I said before...it doesn't make sense from the Cubs standpoint anyway.

Dempsters ERA was 2.96 and Peavy's road ERA was 4.28. Not saying Dempster is the better pitcher, but it makes no sense for the Cubs to even attempt this move.

100,
I know the team's sale isn't immenent, but I just don't see them pursuing something like this without it resolved, unless it was a major need of the team. It obviously isn't, so I don't think they even put in a call about it honestly.

"looks like it will be business as usual this off-season (i.e. locking up wood/dempster)."

Totally agree. Apparently they are set on adding some left handed power...but how is Griffey any different than Cliff Floyd was last year, and they let him go...

If they are going to add a lefty bat...I sure hope its more of an impact one than that. However, if he signs for a 1 year, 5 mil contract...maybe it would be fine.

I think the resigning of Hendry is a very good move. The only move he has made that I hated then and now is the Pierre trade that cost us Nolasco and then some. Obviously Pierre wasn't our problem in 06' anyway...but Nolasco would look amazing as our 5th starter right now.

I actually hope they pick Mitre back up and see if he can make the squad. I've always like him.

crown, i wasn't trying to come across as a wren-hater. just saying that i can easily see him overpaying for peavy. i even said i don't think overpaying is always a bad thing, but i just don't think it's a good idea for the braves right now after unloading the farm in the teixiera deal.

yes, the renteria deal looks extremely lopsided now, but i don't think it's really as bad as it seems. appartently renteria is a head-case who can't play in the american league. i think if the trade involved an NL team, it wouldn't look as lopsided. regardless of how renteria played, it was the right move for the braves, with escobar ready to take over at short.

Aduncaroo Mike Hampton was kind of the Braves 5th starter and he posted a 4.85 ERA. But then again the Braves kept flip-flopping there rotation so there wasn't really a true "5th" starter.

On the other hand, the Padres are not looking to acquire a 5th starter or decent RP. Thats what I am saying. They want a SP would could be a 2 or 3. Marshall is a solid player just not good enough in the deal to get Peavy.

Let me start this post off by saying that I am a Cubs fan.

Now that I have gotten that out of the way, some of the asanine Cubs fan offers out there makes me wonder if people have some serious mental issues.

In what world would an offer of Theriot, Marshall and Guzman be a good starting point. Theriot is a borderline starter, Marshall can't consistently crack the Cubs rotation, and Guzman (I am assuming you're talking about Angel Guzman), is close to 27, has never had major league success and has already had Tommy John and shoulder surgeries.

Get a grip on reality here.

As already mentioned many times above, this deal will cost at the least a few top prospects. Think of the Migual Cabrera deal as a decent proxy, but not quite the same b/c pitchers obviously carry more risk and play only every 5 days.

Unless the Cubs parted with major league talent (Soto, Marmol) or top minor leaguers (they only have one in Vitters), I don't see the Cubs having much of a chance.

Agree on Dodgers. If I'm Towers, no way in hell he stays in the division. There are plenty of other teams on his potential suitors list that have good enough talent to trade with.

Also, TypeKey is the worst, and consistently errors out when I try to post my message.

mmontice,
obviously that trade offer was bad...but I don't even think it was from a Cubs fan. Lighten up dude, its gonna be alright.

"Unless the Cubs parted with major league talent (Soto, Marmol) or top minor leaguers (they only have one in Vitters), I don't see the Cubs having much of a chance."

Exactly...which is exactly why it make ZERO sense.

"If I'm Towers, no way in hell he stays in the division. "

Agree on this...Atlanta, and even St. Louis and the Brewers so much more sense to me.

And what I agree with you the most on...

"Also, TypeKey is the worst"

Its truly awful.

Damn this TypeKey!!!

Peavy & Greene to Atlanta for Escobar, Schafer, B Jones, and J Reyes? Does this sound reasonable? Braves fans; you gotta give up good to get some good in return!

adunc-i was more referring to the article in today's trib about the sale being further complicated by the economy (don't know if you saw it or not), thereby drawing the process out, it would seem, even further. that's all i was implying. that said, i agree our priorities lie elsewhere. i'm saying hendry puts in a call to KT, hears what it's gonna cost and it ends there. when hendry hears that peavy likes chicago, he's got to at least investigate doesn't he? hendry won't waste his time like he did with roberts last year, but he'll check on it, is all i'm saying.
as far as griffey goes, i'm with you on that as well. if you can get him cheap for a year, give it a shot. hey, worked with edmonds. i forgot about the cliff floyd situation, and floyd's probably a more productive player right now. those two situations are a little different, though, since it was always clear the cubs would pursue fukudome hardest should he decide to come here. this time, they need a proven run producer in right field that bats left-handed, and there aren't many out there.
i wasn't very familiar with the kids we gave up to get pierre at the time, so i didn't hate it then. obviously it turned out awful. i like hendry too, but i was just thinking about the guys he's signed long term: d-lee, ramirez, z, soriano, fukudome, lilly. that's a ton of money paid to guys that so far haven't really produced in the post-season. as great as the past season was to watch, post-season success merits those contracts. at least 2 of those deals look questionable right now (soriano, fukudome), and i would say an argument can be made for all of them. d-lee had his monster '05, they re-signed him, he hasn't been the same since. ramirez is exactly what we paid for, but has done nothing in 2 post-seasons. z's arm/head scares me and probably always will. i hate to judge lilly on one playoff start because he's been so good in the regular season both years, but if i'm not mistaken his post-season record isn't the greatest. soriano? i'm convinced he only beats up on bad pitching. i hope i'm wrong. i'm not ready to totally write off fukudome just yet, but right now it doesn't look good. on the other hand, the derosa signing was a stroke of genius, and i can't think of a trade he got fleeced on, other than the pierre trade. thoughts?

I am a Cubs fan and I'm the one that blew around the Pie-Marshall-Guzman-Theriot idea.

Disagreeing with me is one thing, but let's remember we're just throwing ideas around for fun when the full offseason hasn't even started yet. I don't think I created blasphemy in throwing a weak starting point for a Peavy deal, nor did it warrant being called someone with mental issues. Seriously, take it easy guys.

How about Samardzija and Marshall for Peavy? Something around that? Maybe include Fontenot as well. Fontenot would rake in San Diego as a doubles hitter.

"On the other hand, the Padres are not looking to acquire a 5th starter or decent RP. Thats what I am saying. They want a SP would could be a 2 or 3. Marshall is a solid player just not good enough in the deal to get Peavy"

You are right Chief. He is a pretty decent player, and definitely useful to have...but he is no centerpeice to a deal for Peavy, thats for sure.

Michael,

Samardzija would have value to them...but Marshall would be a throw in. If you are looking for a realistic deal that included Marshall...it would probably be:

Vitters, Samardzija, Pie, and Fontenot maybe?

Sorry, I meant to say

Vitters, Samardzija, Pie, and Fontenot/Marshall maybe?

Meaning they could pick between Marshall and Fontenot as the 4th player.

"How about Samardzija and Marshall for Peavy? Something around that? Maybe include Fontenot as well."

Hey Mike just do yourself a favor and quit while you are ahead. Im being as tactful as possible when I say this; you dont know what you are talking about, please just stop.

Peavy & Greene to Atlanta for Escobar, Schafer, B Jones, and J Reyes? Does this sound reasonable? Braves fans; you gotta give up good to get some good in return!
--------------
Not really because Atlanta should see Escobar as one of the few guys they want to build around so to trade him and only get Greene back who will be a free agent at the end of the year make little since

Peavey

for

Schafer/Hernandez
Rohrbough/Reyes
Lillibridge/B. Jones
Morton/Locke
and maybe add on a guy like Pardo who could fill your hole a 2B

Most of these trade proposals are kind of ridiculous. For Towers to trade Peavy, he's going to want something like the return that Dan Haren and Eric Bedard -- realistically even more since Peavy has more value than either of them. That means that the Braves have to include both Heyward and Hanson and that the Cubs probably don't have enough. The Red Sox could put together a package but it sounds like Peavy doesn't want to pitch in the AL. I think the only team that he gets traded to is possibly the Braves.

Let me start by saying I am a Braves fan. That said, I dont believe this deal gets done without Schafer/Heyward and Hanson at the start of the deal. Probably have to include JoJo or Morton plus one major league ready position player as well.

Stop trying to throw in Jones or Lillibridge. They have shown very little in their MLB stints and aren't worthy in a Peavy discussion. It would more likely have to be KJ or Esco. It may sound like a lot to give up, but that's what it takes for proven ace.

i don't see the braves giving up schafer. i think they're pretty set on him being their franchise CF in the very-near future. i could be wrong, though. maybe they're comfortable with blanco or anderson. same goes for escobar. unless there's something wrong personally behind the scenes, i can't see them letting him go, especially if they have to go with greene at short. i can easily see them giving up on reyes. i could also see prado or johnson being involved. the rest would probably involve other prospects previously mentioned in some sort of combination, including: hanson, heyward, lillibridge, b. jones, etc.

mmontice thanks for agreeing with me. I was afraid I was wrong.

Mike c'mon dude! Samardzija and Marshall and maybe Fontenot? Are you joking? It would def. have to be Fontenot and the Pads still wouldn't do it IMHO. The thing about this trade thats so different than other trades is that the Pads are willing to trade Peavy. However, they will only do it if they get a reasonable and intriguing offer. They are not going to short sell Peavy who is young and under-contract at below market value.

If Hanson and Heyward is the starting point for any deal, then I seriously doubt that anyone is going to get a deal done. That is one of the best 2 prospect combo's in all of baseball and something that every team would struggle to match. It's not the sort of ridiculous first offer that will get you hung up on, but other teams aren't going to stay on the other line very long if you refuse to listen to any deals that don't include a combo like that.

Weird to see so many Cubs fans in on the Peavy discussion, your rotation looks pretty solid to me.

I think ATL could get it done with Escobar/KJ, Schafer, Rohrbough, Flowers, maybe Morton or another SP.

I am all for the Peavy trade more so than most Braves fans. However, I do not think it ould be the wise move to trade Heyward AND Hanson. I think its one or the other.

Take a look at the Haren trade again. You could argue that maybe Haren had slightly more value since he was a year younger at the time of the trade, but then again, he was only signed through 2009 while Peavy is signed through 2013.

For Haren, the D-backs gave up Carlos Gonzalez (BA 22nd overall, 1st D-back prospect), Brett Anderson (16th overall, 3rd D-back), Aaron Cunningham (#7 Dback), Craig Carter (#8 D-Back) and Dana Eveland and Greg Smith (left-handed 23 year old starters).

That's the kind of package it's going to take. They aren't going to take Fontenot, or Guzman, or Marshall, or players of that type unless they are the 5th or 6th ranked player in the deal.

"For Haren, the D-backs gave up Carlos Gonzalez (BA 22nd overall, 1st D-back prospect), Brett Anderson (16th overall, 3rd D-back), "

I'm confused. Gonzalez was the 22nd overall best prospect in America, and the DBacks best prospect, but Anderson was the 16th best prospect in America and the DBacks 3rd best? Does that make sense?

Haren didn't have a NTC that he might only waive for 4 or 5 teams, whether those teams actually have interest or not. So the bidding might be between 3 teams, where Haren's bidding might have been 20 for all we know. Thats a big factor here that you are ignoring.

Tim, if I knew my thoughts would be attacked this badly, I never would comment on your website. I'm done.

I think it's funny how everyone seems to think it's going to take BOTH Heyward and Hanson to even begin negotiating a deal. If that isn't robbery than I don't know what is. And all this talk about how Peavy should hold more value than Haren did at the time of his trade because he's signed under contract longer, LMAO. Any other team besides the Padres could be viewing a Peavy trade as a salary dump by SD. So don't give me this hogwash that because he's signed for the next 4+ years that his value should be even higher. That's a joke and no way will that net the Padres both Heyward and Hanson. Hell, imo I wouldn't give either one (let alone both) for a pitcher while capable of being a legit ace that has injury concerns.

So if you want realistic offers, you also have to be realistic in what you demand in return.

Bravesfan89 I agree. Hanson or Heyward as a centerpiece could get it done with a few other players such as KJ, JoJo, Lillibridge, Jones, Anderson...Not all of those guys 2-3

Michael,

People here want to seriously discuss trade ideas and they tend to get quite annoyed when a fan of some team decides to throw out asinine trade proposals that would only work in video games (and many times they wouldn't even work there). Cubs fans on this blog (not all of the obviously) are infamously bad for throwing out trade ideas in which they trade their spare parts for extremely valuable players. I guess you at least included Samardzija, who is quite valuable, but the rest of your proposed deal isn't even on the same level as these other deals that have been bandied about. If you want to post on a sports rumor site like this you probably need to either grow thicker skin or put a little more thought into your trade proposals.

this is the cubs fans. Do you really want to sell off your future to bring in Peavy when starting pitching is not really what you need. I think before the cubs get into the starting pitching thing they will look for a closer if wood isn't back maybe look for some outfield help and bullpen help. You have one prospect that would be in the deal and that is Vitters. You don't have the upper level pitching that they will want. If you really think about it i'm sure you don't want to give up Soto or Marmol and nobody wants Marshall right now.

Aduncaroo -- I don't understand that either, my guess is that since one single person does the team rankings while the overall is the consensus view so the individuals might jump around a little.

I understand that everyone wants to overrate their own team's prospects, that's only natural. But Heyward was in Low A this season and Hanson made 18 great starts in Double A -- they are far from sure things. Towers has already said that he's only trading Peavy if he gets blown away with an offer -- I don't think this is going to be a salary dump trade. We could also argue about whether it's better to have a longer deal or shorter deal -- I'm not sure there is a right answer for that. They each have their pros and cons.

Finally, why would the Padres trade for Lillibridge, Reyes, Brandon Jones or players like that? They already have players like that in their own system.

Heyward has the untouchable badge on him. He is truly untouchable, Pads fans don't even bother. I am not sure about Hanson...

Did any of you read the article on Peavy. It pretty much confirms what I suspected...Peavy is not the "legit ace" that he seems to be. I say no deal. Period.

"Peavy to the Red Sox for Buchholz (potential #1/2 starter in the NL West)"

People really need to learn something about the NL West. One of the biggest reasons the division has trouble hitting outside Colorado is because of how good the pitching is. Also, people really seem on a short memory about the 2007 season, when the division had 4 of 5 teams above .500 and had a 1 game playoff for the Wild Card.

Buchholz would be no better in the NL West than he has been in the AL East.

"Peavy is not the "legit ace" that he seems to be."

Of course he is. To state otherwise is to say Johan Santana is not a legit ace.

Wow, one subpar year of sub 9 k/game and he's not an ace.

All that article proves is that at 27 years of age Peavy had an off year. It still says from 2004-2007 he was one of the best pitchers in the league.

There's little, to no reason to believe that last year is what could be expected of Peavy over what he produced from 2004-2007.

I sure am glad you're not the GM of the Braves, as that kind of view, one year at a time, would get you no where.

Schlom,

I don't think anyone is overrating Heyward and Hanson here. I believe Heyward was already in BA's top 10-12 prospects by midseason, while Hanson earned a ton of midseason accolades. Considering both finished strong, their stock has at worst remained consistent.

Heyward was not technically at Low-A last season (at least in my mind that's short-season A ball). He was not in High-A, but he was a step above the NYPL and NWL in the full-season SAL. He was also completely dominate at the level despite being just 18 years old. He finished with a line of .323/.388/.483, which put him 3rd, 4th, and 10th respectively among the league leaders along with the 6th best OPS. He did this all as one of the youngest guys in the league and while living up to expectations with his glove and his arm. While he may not be a sure thing, his advanced approach at the plate (74 K to 49 BB) I think he is as safe of a bet as any 18 or 19 year old to live up to expectations.

As for Hanson, of course he isn't a sure thing, no pitching prospect is, but he is still an incredibly impressive young pitching prospect. Other that his HR/9, which was worrisome, his other numbers were just dominating at AA (10.5 K/9, 6.4 H/9, 2.8 K/BB). In fact, they are quite similar to Peavy's when he was in AA at the same age, just as a point of reference not as evidence that Hanson will likely reach that level. He will only be 22 next season, his stuff projects well to the big league level, and if he keeps up his development there is a strong possibility of him making his MLB debut sometime next season.

Finally, the Pads would want guys like Lillibridge, Reyes, and Brandon Jones because they are as good or better at this point then what the Pads might have (Jones and Lillibridge were both top 100 prospects pre 2008), they are cheap, controlled for 5 years and the Pads want to cut some payroll. They aren't the centerpiece to a deal, but they hopefully give the Padres some cheap, ML ready players to fill holes until the their younger prospects are ready. If the Pads can get 2-3 of those type players along with 2-3 real legit prospects, I think they will have done well.

"To state otherwise is to say Johan Santana is not a legit ace."

No, its not. Peavy's road ERA was 4.28, and he pitches in one of the best pitcher's parks in the game. Its not unheard of for people to be a little weary of bringing him into a normal ballpark or even a hitter park.

I'm sorry, but I consider Santana to be in a higher tier that Peavy.

Ok, I'm sick of the home and away stats with Peavy. In 2007 his home and away stats were almost identical. He actually pitched better on the road if you really look at the stats.

He had a better BAA, a better WHIP and less hits and WAY less runs.

This year the stats aren't the same, but again one year does not make him declining. He's 27 years old, and he's just coming into his prime.

All this crap about him declining is just that, it's crap.

You can justify it all you want with this last years stats, but Peavy was playing on a terrible team, was injured for part of the year, and most of the bad outings came at the end of the season when the team had basically given up.

You try to pitch on a team that's going to get close to losing 100 games, and see how you fair.

I believe Milwaukee is the dark horse in the race for Peavy.

A deal that would send Hardy, Parra/Braddock, Lucroy/Salome, Cain and Gwynn Jr for Peavy and Greene.

If it was just a trade for Peavy it would be Hardy/Escobar, Parra/Braddock, Cain and Gwynn Jr.

I believe the Brewers would be more inclined to trade Hardy than Escobar though.

Chicago won't get Peavy but if their was a deal probably be a 5 for 1 deal and starting with Marshall, Colvin/ Pie, Veal, McGehee, Cedeno/ Tony Thomas

"Buchholz would be no better in the NL West than he has been in the AL East."

I'm sorry, that's just not true. The AL East this year was arguably the most difficult division in the history of baseball. You could make a strong case that four of the five best regular season teams in baseball were in this division (TB, BOS, NYA, TOR).

The AL West has been pretty mediocre for the most part (as has the NL as a whole). Yes they had four teams over .500 in 2007, but one of those teams was also had a negative run differential (ARZ) and you have to go all the way back to 2004 to find the last time any team in the division won over 90 games.

The NL West was easily the worst division in baseball in 2008 as well. Yes, it is a pitching heavy division, and Coors and Chase somewhat compensate for PETCO, AT&T, and Dodger Stadium, but its still a MUCH easier division to pitch in than the AL East.

Jake Peavy has ALWAYS had durability questions. He's a max effort pitcher whose mechanics put a ton of strain on his forearm. Its difficult to project his future. Its about as easy to see him settling back in and being a dominant ace for the next 3-5 years as it is to see him going through significant periods of injury that either hamper his production or keep him off the field more frequently than a team would like.

I can understand that a team might not want to trade for Peavy because of his injury questions -- he's been on the DL a few times in his career and except for 2007 he's always missed some time.

However, the idea that Towers is going to accept B level prospects/players is ridiculous. The Padres aren't going to trade Peavy for non-impact players, whether they be prospects or guys in the majors. They already have pitchers like Marshall and outfielders like Colvin or Brandon Jones.

Again, I'm just giving my opinion on what Towers would want. If you go back through his trade history, he doesn't make bad deals. The Padres 4 year run before this season was built by him ripping off other teams in trades. He doesn't need to trade Peavy, even with him the payroll will be around $50m in 2009.

Remember, he's not stupid like the Twins GM. If he doesn't get a Haren-like return, he's not going to trade him.

Schlom

"That means that the Braves have to include both Heyward and Hanson"

Actually you're wrong. Braves could probably get the deal done without BOTH. I think between the two, Hanson would be the one to be traded. Face it Heyward isn't going anywhere. Braves have plenty of options that could net Peavy without giving up Heyward.

I don't think the Braves will trade Hanson OR Heyward. Or Schafer.

A deal would have to revolve around 1 starting major leaguer (KJ or Escobar); and then G. Hernandez, maybe BOTH of Rohrbough and Jeffrey Locke (a pretty nice haul); and then maybe a piece or 2 like Lillibridge, Brandon Jones, etc. Possibly a "major league" pitcher like Reyes or Morton.

Not really saying SD should do that, but I think it's the most the Braves will offer.

Nobody mention Francoeur yet? Yeah, it's selling low, but he should be interesting to a rebuilding team.

A few bits from XX sports radio interview with Barry Axlerod (Peavy's agent):

1. The Padres are making it known that they would be interested in making a deal if the terms are right. They are not just sitting around doing nothing. It is more active than just fielding phone calls.

2.Peavy and Axelrod talked about the teams where he would be willing to go in generalities. They won't go much beyond that until specifics arise. It would take something pretty enticing to get Peavy to switch to the American League.

3.It's only a possibility until it really happens. It would appear this trade will entail more than one guy. It becomes more probable as teams become more aggressive to get it done.

There you have it, the Padres are aggressively shopping him, and it looks like it will be to a national league team.

Jake's response to Kevin Towers seeking response on trade possibilities:
"If that's what you think is going to make the team better, if that's the direction you are going, if you think you will be in a 3-5 year rebuilding plan, then I will consider anything that you think will help the club."

So there is the time line for the rebuild. I think that should mean are not looking for ML players, but prospects close to playing or within 2-3 years off.

I guess according to everyone one year makes a pitcher... i will use 2007 as my year to say his value.

Home Era: 2.51
Away Era: 2.57

Yup, I guess its Petco Park.

(Please note i do not believe that one year makes a great pitcher)

Following up on the Home/Road split conversation which has people saying Jake Peavy sound like a number 3 started. The following are the career numbers for Roy Halladay and Greg Maddux:

Roy Halladay
Home: 3.28
Road: 3.75

Greg Maddux
Home: 2.96
Away: 3.36

The three best seasons of Peavy's career:

Peavy 2007
Home: 2.51
Away: 2.57

Peavy 2005
Home: 2.81
Away: 2.98

Peavy 2004
Home: 2.21
Away: 2.33

The basic point is that Towers doesn't have to trade Peavy, he only will if the trade makes the team better. Therefore, he won't trade him for a collection of 4th and 5th starters and fringe starting outfielders. It's going to take a Haren-like package and that means at least two players of the caliber of Heyward and Hanson (maybe not those exact two but similar players). Remember, this isn't a situation like the Twins or Indians were in with Santana or Sabathia. To get a top 5 starting pitcher (also signed through 2013) a team is going to have to give up a lot in return.

The concern over Peavy has nothing to do with his ability or his ceiling, its the arm troubles he's had sprinkled throughout his young career combined with his potential attrition rate. These kinds of things are difficult to predict, there was some concern about Johan Santana and C.C. Sabathia in this regard, but the reasons for all three vary.

Santana is smallish in stature and has seen a dip in velocity without much apparent mechanical adjustment. He has a more typical "drop-and-drive" mechanical style which makes his changeup all the more deceptive. He uses his lower half to generate most of his power, and transfers it through his upper body fairly cleanly, but he also takes a very long stride, which is what leads to his difficulty commanding a breaking pitch (in this case his slider).

Sabathia's concerns are on the opposite side of the spectrum: He's very big, and although it hasn't become one yet, conditioning could be a problem as he gets older, plus the mileage on his arm for his age is about as high as it gets for pitchers these days. Another thing that I consider a point of concern with Sabathia mechanically is the "hesitation" in his arm-load. If you watch him deliver, when he brings his arm back, he stops it for a moment before bringing it forward to deliver the pitch. This is typically viewed as a mechanical flaw, although its significance is somewhat debatable. The idea is that stopping the arm during delivery forces the body to contain and then restart momentum, which can create added stress on the arm without transferring additional momentum to the ball on release. For a good contrast to this, see Tim Lincecum's deliver; very fluid, all one motion, no part of his body stops then starts again. The thing is, with a pitcher as established as Sabathia, toying with his mechanics at this point would likely do more harm than good anyway, but this will be viewed as a culprit if he does experience arm troubles down the road.

This brings us to Peavy. The concerns health-wise about Peavy aren't related to his build/stature. He's a big, strong, muscular guy. However, his mechanical philosophy is what we refer to as "max effort". You'll see some pitchers who have "effortless" looking deliveries, very fluid, consistent motions. Peavy is not one of these pitchers. Mechanically, he's explosive and creates and transfers as much energy as possible through his arm as possible on every delivery. The worry is the amount of strain this puts on his arm with every delivery. Its impossible to quantify just how much more arm-stress a "max effort" pitcher like Peavy generates than other pitchers, but the fact that he's already had forearm issues is a significant concern. Its a high risk/high reward mechanical style, and its something any potential suitor will certainly evaluate.

of course he doesn't HAVE TO trade him. the twins didn't HAVE TO trade johan. i am getting the feeling that the padres are "desperate" to unload peavy. not in a "take whatever u can get" way, but i think there's no question that he gets traded. the padres are terrible and it doesn't appear that will all of a sudden change in the near future. the pads have cut their payroll. keeping peavy and his contract is pretty much a waste. obviously they're much better off trading him for pieces that will help them in the future. another bad thing for towers is that it appears peavy will only allow a trade to an NL team that can contend AND has contended recently. i don't think that would include all that many teams. then take out teams that don't have the prospects, room for payroll, and that don't actually want/need him, and that's probably a pretty short list. of course, they're trying to deny this to keep peavy's value as high as possible. so, again, my prediction is atlanta, and they don't give up anything too huge, certainly not heyward AND hanson. probably neither.

Schlom,

What Braves fan has proposed a deal that didn't include some elite talent to go along with multiple B level prospects? For the most part, everyone is at least including Schafer (at worst a top 50 prospect) and many agree Hanson (possibly top 20-25 prospect) is probably needed depending on the Padres player preferences. I think the Braves have quite a few guys that will rank in the 51-150 range among prospects that may interest the Padres in addition to one of the above elite talents.

As for Brandon Jones in particular, I think its quite likely that he would post a 100+ OPS next season as a platoon player against RHP next season if given the opportunity. Outside of his average, his numbers were good in AAA this year and he showed he has the eye to draw walks at that level. At the major league level, he struggled to take BB, but he posted a respectable avg for his first MLB action and showed his power potential hitting 10 2B in just 116 AB. Its pretty likely he will be an average to above average corner OF in his prime and he's controlled cheaply for the next 5 years (ages 25-29). There is certainly solid value there.

If the Padres are willing to inclue Greene, is there anyway the Tigers get in on this? I'm sure that the Padres wouldn't mind getting Rick Porcello...

I still say Peavy goes to Atlanta for a deal including an ML-ready position player, an ML-ready (or close) SP, possibly another ML-ready player depending on the first two, then 2 - 3 lower level prospects.

I don't think Heyward would be involved as he is too far away. I think Hanson could be the ML-ready (or close) SP. If the ML-ready position player is Escobar (as has been rumored) then I think its Hanson, Escobar and 3 lower level prospects. Maybe a little more if Greene is also included. If its not Escobar, then something like Hanson, Lillibridge, B Jones and 2 - 3 prospects. Or Morton, Lillibridge, Schafer and 2 - 3 prospects. Again, some of it depends on if Escobar is included.

Rob M - I could see Atlanta getting Greene, then flipping him to Detroit as part of a deal for Magglio. (Before everyone blasts me for saying Greene would get Maggs, I'm only meaning as part of a package. I realize it would cost a lot more.)

"However, the idea that Towers is going to accept B level prospects/players is ridiculous. The Padres aren't going to trade Peavy for non-impact players, whether they be prospects or guys in the majors. They already have pitchers like Marshall and outfielders like Colvin or Brandon Jones."

Impact players in majors will be under the teams control for several years at bargain basement salary also, NO BAD contracts.

Kevin Towers is one of the shrewdest GM's in the game, he does not make many mistakes in trades and some of the ideas have seen popping up with these fringe level prospects and over paid players are not going to happen.

Braves, open up the farm system and prepare for both Heyward and Hansen, or 1 and several more BLUE CHIP prospects.

The Angels.. Towers could have gotten more from, but it seems like Peavy is not enthused about the AL, can't blame him, Boston also, Tampa does not have a need really for another top line starter for what it would cost and they have the most both minor league talent + payroll wise talent available that Towers would probably be after.

"Tim, if I knew my thoughts would be attacked this badly, I never would comment on your website. I'm done."

This is a sad, sad day. I am sorry Tim, but I see no way your site can stay up and running at a high level now that we have lost Michael M. It was a good ride, fellas.

"The basic point is that Towers doesn't have to trade Peavy, he only will if the trade makes the team better. Therefore, he won't trade him for a collection of 4th and 5th starters and fringe starting outfielders. It's going to take a Haren-like package and that means at least two players of the caliber of Heyward and Hanson (maybe not those exact two but similar players). Remember, this isn't a situation like the Twins or Indians were in with Santana or Sabathia. To get a top 5 starting pitcher (also signed through 2013) a team is going to have to give up a lot in return."

I said almost literally said the same thing last night on the Jake Peavy post there. Peavy is a stud pitcher with multiple years under contract, like Haren and Bedard. Both of them landed their teams massive hauls of prospects. For that reason, I would expect the same for Peavy, regardless of if he has a NTC. The Braves will still have to pay a premium for Peavy, and I would expect that to mean 2-3 top 5 prospects from the organization as well as 2-3 other young players. I still say that something like Tommy Hanson, Jordan Schafer, Cole Rohrbrough and Josh Anderson for Peavy could work, with maybe a little more or little less going to San Diego.

"Chicago won't get Peavy but if their was a deal probably be a 5 for 1 deal and starting with Marshall, Colvin/ Pie, Veal, McGehee, Cedeno/ Tony Thomas"

Are you really serious? Come on you're a Cubs fan you should know that McGehee, Veal, Cedeno and Pie have little to no value now. The Padres would start discussions with two of Josh Vitters, Jose Ceda, Jeff Samardzija and Tyler Colvin, and then on top of that they'd have to throw in probably two more guys from a group of like Pie, Marshall, Thomas, Cedeno, Guzman and Veal. And that's the very least I would expect the Padres to consider in a deal for Peavy.

"If the Padres are willing to inclue Greene, is there anyway the Tigers get in on this? I'm sure that the Padres wouldn't mind getting Rick Porcello..."

But what else could/would they offer? I mean I guess they could offer something like Porcello, Cale Iorg, Matt Joyce and a fourth prospect, but really I just don't think the Tigers have the bullets to make a move.


Thundersticks I think you have a basic sense of what the Braves will have to give up to get Peavy. But is trading Yunel a little to much? I think it is. I would only go as high as KJ, because we have depth at 2B with Prado.

However if we do trade Yunel we def. need to get Greene. I like the idea of dealing him to DET in some package to get Maggs.

I think a lot of people are forgetting that our good ole' buddy Edgar Renteria is a free agent.

im a cubs fan, but this deal after i ponder of it, we dont need him unless we dont sign dempster. The cubs arent going to sell the franchise this offseason b/c of the economy, sam zell are owner will not do it cause he so cheap he'll wait until to gets somewhat better.


but if i had to make a deal for him it would be this, and this is the highest im willing to let go.

this is a 3-way

cubs get: peavy

pads get: Marshall, ceda, vitters, colvin, theriot, guzman, pie, dubin, and maybe 1 player to be named later after this season so they can have 1 of are best minor leaguers

angels get: derek lee

angels give padres: Jordan Walden, Hank Conger,and another low level prospect.

wow thats a lot for the cubs to give up especially when there giving up Lee to. You should get Green to.

If your trade proposal includes 10-12 players going to the Padres to equal the value of Peavy, then I think you already realize none of your prospects are valuable enough to actually land him.

Chief - Thank you. I've been saying on here for days that you have to give up talent to get talent.

All of this talk about comparing the Haren and Bedard deals doesn't make sense. Peavy is better than both of them and is signed to a longer, team-friendly contract. I understand that. But that contract also has a no-trade clause, which limits the potential buyers and thusly the package. I think the deal will be comparable, though. KT is not going to give him away. But KT is also under pressure from ownership to cut payroll. Peavy's value will never be higher, so now is the time to do it.

I don't think Escobar would be included. I think KT will try to get him. Sending Escobar would lessen the quality and/or quantity of some of the other pieces. I'd rather give up Hanson and keep Escobar.

your sending 8 maybe 9 players to the padres plus a very good first baseman. The Angels aren't giving up hardly anything.

Braves get
Peavy

Pads get
Schafer
Prado
Rohrbough/Locke
Lillibridge/BJones
Morton/JoJo

Schafer is a top center field prospect, They get a starter in Prado, Two solid pitching prospects in Morton and Rohrbough, and a guy that still has some upside at a premium position in Lillibridge. Whichathink?

"cubs get: peavy

pads get: Marshall, ceda, vitters, colvin, theriot, guzman, pie, dubin, and maybe 1 player to be named later after this season so they can have 1 of are best minor leaguers

angels get: derek lee

angels give padres: Jordan Walden, Hank Conger,and another low level prospect. "

Honestly.. As a Cubs fan I would really NOT want to do that deal. We're going to give up our three best minor leaguers (Vitters, Ceda, Colvin), Derrek Lee who is a very good player, our starting SS who posted a .387 OBP this year (Theriot), two solid young pitchers (Marshall, Guzman) and our one top best prospect who's still got some talent even if he hasn't panned out (Pie) all for a single player?

That is one of the most ludicrous trade proposals I've ever seen. I'm a Cubs fan and personally if they made this deal I would probably cry. It's simply ludicrous to think a team would give up 10 players (12 if you consider the prospects from LA) for a single player. Especially a single player who didn't play all that well last year and is just ONE player. I just don't get how as a Cubs fan you would want to do that deal. It would be so awful for the Cubs I can't even imagine.

And by the way, the Angels would never give up Walden and Conger for Lee, let alone one of them.

If all that we have read is true, the Braves are really in the drivers seat. I wouldn't offer Heyward at all. I don't even make that deal straight up for Peavy. I probably tell them that all of Hanson, Heyward, and Esco are off the table. Between Schafer, Rohrbough, Gorkys, Locke, Morton, you could get a deal done. Especially if it is true that Peavy has only a few places he will pitch. If that is the case now, there is no reason to expect it to change over the next few years. Chicago and Houston cannot get it done, and the Dodgers are not going to trade Kershaw. Besides, he isn't moving in division. If he really wants to pitch in the NL, that leaves Atlanta and Milwaukee. I see these as the 2 most likely places Peavy lands. I think if Wren is smart, he can get his man without surrendering any of Hanson, Heyward or Escobar. You can use Johnson/ Prado in the deal if need be, and play the other one at second base.

If all that we have read is true, the Braves are really in the drivers seat. I wouldn't offer Heyward at all. I don't even make that deal straight up for Peavy. I probably tell them that all of Hanson, Heyward, and Esco are off the table. Between Schafer, Rohrbough, Gorkys, Locke, Morton, you could get a deal done. Especially if it is true that Peavy has only a few places he will pitch. If that is the case now, there is no reason to expect it to change over the next few years. Chicago and Houston cannot get it done, and the Dodgers are not going to trade Kershaw. Besides, he isn't moving in division. If he really wants to pitch in the NL, that leaves Atlanta and Milwaukee. I see these as the 2 most likely places Peavy lands. I think if Wren is smart, he can get his man without surrendering any of Hanson, Heyward or Escobar. You can use Johnson/ Prado in the deal if need be, and play the other one at second base.

Way to go type key

"No, its not. Peavy's road ERA was 4.28, and he pitches in one of the best pitcher's parks in the game. Its not unheard of for people to be a little weary of bringing him into a normal ballpark or even a hitter park."

Look at the splits posted above. He had an off year this year on the road, but a lot of that was also command related (take a look at his K/BB ratios) which has little to do with the ballpark. He walked more batters and batters made better contact against him. Perhaps that is why he is insistent on going somewhere where he feels comfortable?

"I'm sorry, but I consider Santana to be in a higher tier that Peavy."

Santana's being left handed helps, but the numbers don't really lie.

nrmax88 I agree with everything you said. Heyward is untouchable, I wouldnt trade him straight up for anyone other than Hamels, Braun, Longoria and maybe a few others. Hes gonna be so sick.

cubs dont need him.

Showtime35 I like your offer but from a Padres fan perspective I wouldn't be too happy with that. Its very questionable. you get two guys who can be solid of the rotation pitchers and Schaffer whose stock has diminished.

Heyward should be a great player. I think it would be silly to trade him also. I think if we trade a prospect its gotta be Hanson. Pitcher-Pitcher makes sense to me.

"cubs dont need him."

What happened to that gaurunteed WS victory that you wouldn't shut the **** up about a couple months ago?

"nrmax88 I agree with everything you said. Heyward is untouchable, I wouldnt trade him straight up for anyone other than Hamels, Braun, Longoria and maybe a few others. Hes gonna be so sick."

Be careful not to get too excited. May we bring back memories of Corey Patterson and Sean Burroughs..

Although I completely agree that Heyward is one of the most untouchable players in the game. He's one of those guys who you would only trade for guys whose team already considers them untouchable too. Very few players have a ceiling of 40+ HR power with good contact and plate discipline, as well as top defense in right field, and Heyward seems very capable of reaching that ceiling. He's a cornerstone of the Braves of the future, and considering Chipper is winding down and Francoeur fell flat on his face in 2008, the Braves sort of need Heyward.

"What happened to that gaurunteed WS victory that you wouldn't shut the **** up about a couple months ago?"

Who was guarenteeing a World Series victory for the Cubs?

Peavy to LA for Ethier and Kershaw
or Mil for Gamel, Gwynn Jr and Jeffers

Kouzmanoff to Minn for Delmon Young

Greene to Portland Beavers for a bag of chips and a goat

ChiefTomahawk,

Do you really buy that Schafer's stock has diminished just because of circumstantial evidence he used HGH? It certainly wouldn't be because of his performance this season. After being forced to sit out ~40% of the season, he came back to post a .269/.378/.471 including 18 2B, 6 3B, and 10 HR in under 300 AB's. That's very encouraging plate discipline and tremendous power potential for a CF, especially one playing in AA at the age of 21.

"Peavy to LA for Ethier and Kershaw"

On behalf of the Dodgers, I'll say no.. I doubt that the Dodgers would even be willing to give up Kershaw, especially within their own division. To think that they would include Ethier too after the season he had is simply silly.

Peavy for Gamel, Jeffress and Gwynn is far more plausible, although I would expect the Padres to prefer to go after Alcides Escobar, considering that the Padres already have Adrian Gonzalez and Kyle Blanks at first and Kevin Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley at third. There is simply nowhere for Mat Gamel to go unless you try to shove in into left like Headley this year.

"Kouzmanoff to Minn for Delmon Young"

And Kouzmanoff can't land you Delmon Young. Young is way, well, younger, and his ceiling is far higher. Kouzmanoff is too poor defensively and doesn't get on base enough to warrant the Twins giving up Delmon for him.

nixa37 I do think his stock has diminished because of the HGH. How could it not?

Chief, I don't think the HGH diminishes Schafer at all, except that he'll get some boos on the road for a while. (I'm not saying it's okay... just that except for costing him 50 games and some embarrassment, it doesn't seem to have affected his performance).

Maybe his stock hasn't diminished much because as a baseball player he showed steady development over the past two years and appears on track to be a very good center fielder and fairly soon.

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