Latest Peavy Chatter

You're right on, Tim. Shortly there will be 80 comments from Braves fans here saying why the Padres won't sniff Heyward or Hanson, and why they need a package starting with a busted SS prospect (Lillibridge), a 4th OF (Diaz) etc etc. But Towers and the Padres are in the driver's seat. They have Jake under control for the next five years at far below market rate. He's healthy, young, and neutral metrics show without dispute he's one of the top SP in baseball. If KT and the Padres don't like the deal, they won't do it, because they don't need to pull the trigger, unlike the Twins with Santana last year. If teams are going to want to play, they are going to have pay, and that means top 25 prospects and young ML ready players.

wow, totally off base there Friar. don't pretend that braves fans are the only ones trying to pawn off trash to other teams. and certainly don't pretend that we're all that way.

however, i will agree with Tim's comment about starting with heyward or hanson, and your comment about top 25 prospects. objectively speaking, it would have to happen this way. the santana/haren/sabathia deals set the market for premium pitchers. personally, i'd rather start with hanson, and keep heyward in house. beyond that, i don't know what towers would look for.

Among Hanson, Heyward, and Freeman, the one I'd be most willing to trade is Freeman. Although, with Adrian Gonzalez around, I don't see why Towers would accept a package with Freeman as the centerpiece. Although...Freeman would probably be ready in Gonzalez's walk year...hmm.

I'm doing Freeman, Flowers, and then some stuff.

Between Heyward and Hanson, I hold on to Heyward. I just think that guy is going to be something great, and guys like him are more of a rare crop than guys like Hanson are.

Friar, hold off a little on the "far below market rates" bit.

Peavy has a no trade clause which he could use for leverage. The option year on his contract is for top dollars. He could demand that be picked up, he could demand extra money tacked onto the other years, or he could even demand an extra year or two added onto his deal.

Yeah, if he approves the deal without requiring any compensation, it's a great contract. But it sounds like he's going to be really fussy about allowing a trade.

Someone clue me in - I have heard these Peavy rumors for awhile now, but why in world are the Padre's even considering trading this bonafide ace? Have they given any indication as to what they want in return? Do they want top prospects or major league ready hitters?

Guys, get real. If you think your team has a chance of landing him stop thinking in terms of who you prefer to keep. Peavey will cost half of a healthy farm system and all of a mediocore one, but he will be well worth it. Established healthy, (relatively) cheap young aces become available once in a blue moon.

*Prays for a Peavy for Marshall-Pie-Cedeno trade*

VAFriar: It's not up to 80, yet, but it's getting there! Again, get real.

melonis rex - I don’t think the Padres will be interested in Freeman for 2 reasons:

1. Adrian Gonzalez is a native San Diegan who the fans love, he is really active in the community and with Peavy gone he will become the only face of this franchise. I think the Pads will do every thing they can to keep him here around and have him be this generations Tony Gwynn.
2. The Padres have Kyle Blanks in AA right now and they just drafted Andrew Dykstra with their first pick in this years draft so there is plenty of depth there if A-gon leaves.

i think there is a chance that Brian Giles will get traded to the Cubs. I have heard this for about two years now.

First of all, not all Braves fans are morons. No more so than Red Sox fans, Cubs fans, Yankees fans, etc. So please don't classify a teams' fans based on a few loose screws.

Secondly, it will cost the Braves one of their top prospects to get Peavy. If I'm not mistaken (and I certainly could be) Peavy was not "available" when Wren made his comment about not trading top prospects. The fact that Peavy is signed for several years, not just one or two, completely changes the dynamic.

Thirdly, from the reports I've seen, Towers wants players with little to no ML service time. This being the case, it will cost prospects.

Fourthly, because Peavy has a no-trade clause, it doesn't give the Padres as strong a position as some have indicated. While it is true that the Pads don't HAVE to trade him now, the longer this plays out - into the season or even next winter - the package the Pads can expect in return will go down. It doesn't matter if Team A will give you their top 10 prospects for him if Peavy will veto the trade. Now I'm not saying he will get traded for peanuts, but Pads fans need a bit of reality check if they think they are going to net 5 or 6 top prospects. With Peavy basically indicating he would veto trades to half the teams, many of the remaining teams don't have the prospects to get him, then even fewer actually have the room in the budget for his salary (albeit very team friendly). I say there will only be a couple of teams that will match up (prospects, payroll flexibility, and Peavy will agree to the trade) so it won't be the seller's market some are indicating.

With all that being said, I believe Towers will pull the trigger this winter to maximize his return. Something along the lines of Hanson & Schafer OR Heyward & Morton/Reyes/Parra as a starting point with 2 - 3 other prospects included should get it done. My preference would be the Hanson/Schafer package as we have several other SP & CF options now. Heyward and Hernandez are our LF and CF of the future. The Pads would get a SP prospect & a CF prospect who should both debut in 2009. They would then get some prospects for the farm system.

TPW,

Heard you guys have interest in Kelly Johnson?

How about Johnson, Medlen, BJones, Flowers, and Rohrbough/Locke?

Also, to Nickk11...Jake Peavy will not waive his NTC to go to the Mets...he wants to be closer to his Bama home.

Lastly, I totally agree w/ you Thundersticks...the ball is in Peavy's court and I think the NTC he has is going to sweeten the deal for the team getting him, not necessarily the Pads...should it be that way, no probably not as I am one who is against NTC, but then again, I am a Braves fan and if it helps us then so be it.

I just really don't expect any of Heyward/Schafer/Hanson to go but if they did it would be Hanson, Schafer, Heyward in that order...

If we include 1 of those it will be one and one only though...

"I just really don't expect any of Heyward/Schafer/Hanson to go but if they did it would be Hanson, Schafer, Heyward in that order..."

Braves22 - I agree with the order of preference, but I believe it will cost two top players. Maybe Schafer & Morton? Morton & Johnson? Hanson, Lillibridge & Blanco/Anderson? Something along those lines.

The Braves are really loaded at the lower levels, so that is why I think it will be two top prospects and/or MLB-ready-types plus 2 - 3 lower level guys.

I think Thundersticks is pretty close. I'd rather keep Heyward to be honest, he might be the top prospect in all of baseball after next season (assuming all of the current top prospects lose eligibility by that time). I'd start with Hanson/Schafer and see where we are at. I'm fine with waiting for Freeman with Kotchman as a stopgap so don't see a need to throw a boatload towards the Padres hoping to land both Peavy/Gonzo. I know Lillibridge's stock is really low but I still think he could be a useful player and if he rebounded, could make Greene somewhat expendable. It would probably take another player in addition to Hanson/Schafer/Lillibridge but I don't think it's that far off to think it couldn't happen.

I implore Frank Wren to leave Kelly Johnson out of this - I truly believe he's on the verge of elite status. Offensively, at least, and his defense (while not horrible) will improve.

Except that is the point...he really ISN'T considering those teams...they are northern east coast teams and he wants to be in the deep south closer to his family and Bama home...this has already been stated as fact...so no, not BS at all...

Plus he has said on numerous occasions that he loves the NL because of the style of game they play and the fact that he gets to hit because Jake loves hitting as well.

Um..yeah...we've let KJ play...I'm not sure whether he'll get better or not...

He has lots of inconsistency and now because of the emergence of Prado and the fact that he himself has a really high trade value, he's expendable at this point in time...

Besides, I'm not sure I can take another year of him and Francoeur in the same lineup.

"Um..yeah...we've let KJ play...I'm not sure whether he'll get better or not...

He has lots of inconsistency and now because of the emergence of Prado and the fact that he himself has a really high trade value, he's expendable at this point in time...

Besides, I'm not sure I can take another year of him and Francoeur in the same lineup."

2 years straight now BC has dicked around with KJ's playing time. If you really think Prado is an every day, MLB caliber player then I can't help ya. I just think trading KJ in a deal when his current value is below what he probably truly is is a big mistake. Factoring in injuries and BC's tinkering around with the lineup (one day he is 1st, then 7th, then 2nd, then 3rd, then on the bench for Prado for 3 days, etc) and I don't see how you can say we have thrown KJ out there in a consistent way to see how he can do.

I, personally, would prefer to keep KJ, bat him 7th or 8th, and let him play everyday. He does much better lower in the order than leadoff or second.

If Frenchy wasn't struggling sooooooo bad, MAYBE they could afford to move Heyward but I just don't think it's possible right now.

padres are in the drivers seat yes they want to cut payroll, but with all the money coming off the books from losing maddux, bard, prior, edmonds, barret, iguchi, clark, and possibly giles/hoffman. that puts them around the low 30 million mark and they talked about decreasing to the 50-60 range. so a peavy trade is not imminent. they would have to get their sox knocked off.

braves fans say goodbye to heyward or your not going to get peavy. you dont get a guy like peavy without giving up your best prospect and probably a couple other top prospects. Hanson/schafer and others is possible but unlikley. every team in baseball is going to be in on this and the padres are going to get monster offers.

i could see cinci getting in on this with the boat load of prospects they have. the padres would probably ask for bruce and talks would end right there. i could see a deal involving some of bailey, cueto, stubbs and others?

boston has the players but will they give them up? they did for beckett

There is a good chance we don't win next year anyhow. Why mortgage the future (Heyward plus 2 other prospects) when it isn't like this move makes us a lock for the playoffs? If Huddy wasn't hurt and I had confidence in Smoltz, maybe I'd consider it but our situation makes it extremely difficult to move a player with Heyward's potential. Heyward could definitely help in 2010 as far as I'm concerned, I just don't think I'd pull the trigger if Heyward is a deal breaker.

If the Frenchy we see now is the real Frenchy then moving Heyward means our OF will be among the lowest in production soon if not already next season. Moving Heyward would mean it will stay that way for a while and we already have low production from 1B in Kotchman. I realize how much of a bargain Peavy is but do you realize how valuable MLB ready and top prospects are? Saying you need 3-4 top prospects (at least top 100 one of which being top 5 in baseball) is a bit much. Braves already pulled one of those recently and it failed to amount to much of anything in the end, why do it again?

"nickk11 - nope. I don't think the Mets can do with prospects alone. Not that it's best for the Padres, but what would Mets fans think about Reyes for Peavy? Just curious..."

I disagree. If the Mets went mad and decided to move their farm system for Peavy, they could do it. Fernando Martinez, Wilmer Flores, Jonathan Niese and one of Ruben Tejeda and Francisco Pena would surely be interesting to San Diego.

As for the Bruce for Peavy/Hairston idea, honestly I think that'd be a bad trade for the Padres. They could move Peavy alone for a young player with a pedigree almost as impressive as Bruce's, and probably land 3-4 other quality prospects on top of it. If I were the Padres, I would much rather land a Tommy Hanson, Gorkys Hernandez, Brent Lillibridge and Brandon Jones package or something, than just a single young player. The Padres need to play the odds. They can't simply deal Peavy for one player, because then if Bruce never becomes a star then that deal looks awful for San Diego.

Jay Bruce is one of the most untouchable players in baseball anyways.

Brian Giles already nixed a trade to Boston. Why would he want to come to my Cubbies? I know Jim Henry has a hard-on for him, like Kenny Williams does for Griffey, but c'mon. I do, however, like the idea of Peavy in a Cubs' uniform. I also sent Tim an email asking about a Pie, Marshall, and Cedeno for Peavy trade. I also wonder if the Cubs could expand the offer to get Khalil Greene, and make Theriot a utility player. THE-RIOT, once again, struggled down the stretch. Or, you could make Theriot a platoon partner with his old buddy Fontenot, and play DeRosa in RF full time, and move Kosuke to CF.

I will bring up the deal I mentioned in the previous post. Peavy to the Reds for Homer Bailey, Micah Owings, Chris Valaika, Drew Stubbs, plus maybe one or two lower level guys. The Reds have a lot of talent in their lower levels, both pitcing and hitting, and are trying to win now without dismantling the young core they have developed on the MLB level.

Honestly, I don't see this deal getting done at all if the deal involves Heyward or Hanson. I think Frank Wren has made it clear that both are untouchable.

I know Pads fans are probably pissed at me for saying this, but I'll throw a wet blanket on the fire again by mentioning that Peavy is an injury risk. The Braves had 4 starters DL this year because of injuries, 2 of them because of elbow problems. The front office will be acting with Caution.

I think the Pads would have to consider a deal involving KJ, Rohrbough, JoJo Reyes/Morton, and Gorkys Hernandez. For those Pads fans that are value Peavy highly and aren't familiar with the Braves system, that is 1 major league top 10 2b, 1 ML ready lefty with a #2/#3 ceiling in Reyes or 1 ML ready righty with #2 starter potential in Morton, 1 highly projectable lefty starter in Rohrbough, and one high end CF prospect (Schafer may be substituted here).

Other Pads fans in the last post agreed that this type of package would be a pretty good haul, and it includes 2 of the Braves top 10 prospects at least.

The fact is, Pads fans have to realize that Peavy is not at his top value right now. His contract is about to get expensive and his elbow is in question. I'm not saying he isn't one of the best pitchers in baseball, he is, but he won't necessarily net everything that you are dreaming of.

my 2 cents...

as a cubs fan, i don't think the cubs have the pieces do get it done. their young prospects just aren't good enough, except maybe vitters (btw, is he the one that had the real long hitting streak in the minors this year?) hendry will be reluctant to make a lot of major changes to the major league roster coming off a 97 win season, regardless of the playoff flop. a d-lee trade scenario (obviously not involving peavy) is the most likely, everyone else is staying put. i'll bet they kick the tires on peavy, but in the end they decide that paying dempster, who they can probably get at a discount, is much more worthwhile. but jesus would i love to have him in front of z...
i can't speak intelligently about other team's farms, but it seems like the braves are the logical choice: close to peavy's home, prospects and perhaps a willingness to trade them, cash to spend. i don't see the astros parting with pence, for what it's worth, and apart from him, what do the astros have to offer?
the arm issues would worry me, but you have to take the chance.

Cardinals are an interesting team....

If they started an offer with Colby Rasmus (OF prospect rated higher than Heyward by many) and Bryan Andreson (one of the best catching prospects in the mionrs).....the Padres would have to listen. Throw in some pitching prospects and you could get something worked out.....

I would love to see the Phillies make this deal.
I would rather have Peavy at 5/70 than a 6/150 for Sabathia or 5/85 for Burnett. However, if the Braves get Peavy, and with the Mets having Santana, I think the Phillies would be forced to make a big free agent pitcher signing. Don't get me wrong the Phillies are pretty darn good right now, but you always gotta think about staying good in the future. What about this deal:

Phillies get: Jake Peavy

Padres get: JA Happ, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Jason Jaramillo, and 1 A or AA player.

I don't know if that would get it done, but it would be a good start.

1. Is Heyward MLB ready?

2. Good point about not being able to win next year.

3. Prospects are valuable, but not THAT valuable. If someone would pay the Braves $70M for Heyward, they'd just on it in a second. Trading him for Peavy is the equivalent.

No matter how good a prospect looks, you have to look at the possible outcomes. And "MLB average" is the most likely. Heyward is very valuable - just not worth $70M. A best guess? Maybe $30M.

As and Astros fan, I would love to add Peavy. He and Oswalt are good friends and were the best man at each others wedding. He would be a perfect fit here.

Would I give up Hunter Pence in a package for Peavy? Absolutely. My problem though, is that I know it will take more than just Hunter Pence. I'm not sure what the Padres needs are, but our AAA team is terrible, so terrible that I'm willing to bet our AA or A team could beat them if they were to play. So, with no upper level prospects ready for the big leagues, I do not see an Astros trade for Peavy happening anytime soon unless it were for Pence straight up, which will not get the deal done.

When its all said and done, I think the likliest place for Peavy to land is Atlanta. They have a terrific farm system and the resources from which to choose from to match up with a trade.

Who is rating Colby Rasmus ahead of Jason Heyward?? Maybe if we're talking pre-2008 but otherwise I don't think it would be comparable nor do I think the Cards have the wealth of prospects to offer a legit package.

What about the Brewers? With Sheets and CC probably leaving...they could give up a few of their many prospects to make this happen, couldn't they?

My three guesses in order of likliness, are Braves, Cards, and Brewers.

"I think the Cards have the wealth of prospects to offer a legit package"

Wealth of propsects? No. However, the right prospects? Yes.

I think an offer of Rasmus, Anderson, and random B level prospect gets this done...and I think it would be a good move by both teams.

Aduncaroo: No not to the cubs because, accoring to THEPadreWay, they dont have the peices. He must know everything and everybody in the Cubs orginzation!

the idea of the astros including hunter pence is intriuging. if they padres would have any interest in bourn or towels then the astros might be able to put together a better package than some people might think. but as much as i'd like to see that happen, it's still a longshot at best

i have a quick question: what's tim hudson's status right now? did he ever have tommy john surgery? is he going to miss next season for sure?

No, but thanks for trying to tell me what to do. People in here think they are always right. It pretty funny!Why dont you keep thinking the Astros will win! thanks

HAHA thast funny..Keep talking shi* on the computer haha. that how they do it on the West coast? Thanks for looking up the Cubs farm system.

cubs land:

It's how they do it everywhere, moron. When you act stupid in an internet discussion, you lose the right to tell people to get off the internet. At the same time, everyone else earns the right to tell you just how stupid you are. It's not even that easy to do, because you're so very stupid that we quickly run out of adjectives and adverbs.

haha thanks! you guys are the same ones who say cubs wouldnt go out and get Harden, well WRONG. The same ones who say the Brewers will beat the cubs for frist, WRONG. So why cant the cubs go get this average guy?

that was aganist the cubs!

that Peavy is an average pitcher?

"I think the Pads would have to consider a deal involving KJ, Rohrbough, JoJo Reyes/Morton, and Gorkys Hernandez"

Andy, I think you're pretty much on target.

Personally, I'd try to sweeten the deal by substituting Yunel Escobar for KJ, and taking K. Greene back in the deal.

We could live with (and afford) Greene at SS for a year - I'm not as big on Esco as many Braves fans.

So, SD, how does Escobar (established, cheap starting SS), G. Hernandez (probably the best defensive CF in the minors, great speed and a projectable bat), Rohrbough (top-tier pitching prospect) and Reyes/Morton (ML-ready #4/5 starter with upside) play? And you get rid of Greene's $6 mil+ contract.

"ThePadreWay: STOP saying silly. its stupid you sounds stupid.

Thundersticks: Thanks for a the morons list. Now can you give us a list of fans who aren't morons? thanks, nice name HAHA NOT"

coxkid, I could see the Angels getting involved in the Peavy sweepstakes. Especially if they cannot land Tex or CC.

dude you're being a hypocrite. you're acting like you're the only one who's right as much as anyone else on here. and the cubs won as much playoff games as the astros did this year...all those wins and adding harden sure paid off for you

and point taken on the fact that there are better offers out there than what the astros can give. i'm still curious about whether or not tim hudson has to miss this season or not tho

BadVlad, people just don't appreciate how difficult it is to finish FRIST.

The Angels have always been reluctant to trade their prospects, so they seem like a long-shot to me.

I think the front-runners, at least right now, would be the Braves, Cards, Brewers, and Rays. The Dodgers might try to get involved but I don't know that Towers would want to trade within the division. Unless, of course, he was blown away.

I know ThePadreWay, it's like being better than first.
From now on it should be
frist, first, second, and then third. haha

jtd and Thundersticks, that was before with Bill Stoneman. I believe Tony Reagins is different because he already traded away Kotchman.

AtlantaMike - I'm just curious, what makes you not high on Escobar? I'd much rather have him than Greene, but I'm not trying to debate or defend Yesco. I'm really just curious.

Thundersticks - didn't even consider the Rays. If Peavy is willing to go to the AL east they would be instant frontrunners to land him.

i wasn't counting Kotchman as a prospect still but that is a good about the new GM i forgot about that.