Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

Bring Manny back so I can see him in LA and pity myself a little more.

Decline Penny's option so the Red Sox can flirt with signing him only to bring Paul Byrd back.

Finally, sign CC so I don't see 6'7" and 280 lbs in pinstripes

I think they already non tendered Angel Berroa, no? This week.

Also, I can actually see them finding a trade partner for Pierre. Jones, not so much... but Pierre, yes. Depending on what happens with Manny of course. Pierre doesn't exactly = Manny but they don't want to be left short in the OF unless Jones seems like he's ready willing and able to contribute.

Their next top (really good) OF candidate in the minors is Andy Lambo and he's more likely a 2010 contributor.

I would expect them to sign a FA pitcher, and if they don't get Manny that pitcher might be CC, who wants to go to southern Cal if he can.

if the dodgers were smart they would go over the payroll for what they had this year get manny and cc. with those bad contracts coming off books they will be able to pay the back end of the contracts. the big part of this equation is getting cc to anchor this good young staff that they have.

Bring back Furcal please. But yea pitching and Manny should be our main goals during the offseason

Sorry for how poorly written that last post was. But the main question is why aren't they interested in re-signing Lowe?

"Sorry for how poorly written that last post was. But the main question is why aren't they interested in re-signing Lowe?"

Its not that they don't want to resign Lowe, it is that he doesn't seem to want to resign.

"I heard Lowe was reportedly unhappy with the way he was treated in LA, I think that may have been posted here."

I think he came to L.A. looking to finally be an ace and had to compete for that job with Penny. Also, I don't know how much a fan of the laid back atmosphere he is. The way he was embraced this year, however, has to say something to him about how much he is appreciated.

He also cheated on his wife with some FOX reporter and he doesn't seem to like the LA weather. The guy seems to sweat just walking to the mound.

no jones will be a dodger next year. he basically has no value and since hes contract is done after this year it would highly unlikely to see him moved anywhere

"Jones's contract is back loaded. 22.1 million next year."

No. You are incorrect. Read his contract details on Cot's. Jones' deal included a massive $12.2 million signing bonus. While that bonus was broken up over 3 years, it was pre-funded. Further, $2.1 million plus $15 million is not $22.1 million.

"Unfortunately the way I see it, Dodgers have two open spots in the rotation, Schmidt does not count. I think McDonald will pitch his way into that 5 spot, but he is a rooke with an innings limit."

Actually, I wouldn't be surprised to see McDonald let loose for at least 180 innings this year. Remember that, unlike Kershaw, he has been in the Dodgers' system for 5 years now and has already pitched seasons over 140 innings. Including the playoffs this year, McDonald pitched over 150 innings at all levels. That easily translates to 180 innings next year. His stuff probably translates to #3 quality in the #4 slot in 2009.

Dodgers are in great shape due to drafting/development in recent years. To think that CC, Manny and Furcal could all fit into the budget is sick; I'd pick them to win that division easily next yr (though the NL west is garbage)...

"If the Dodgers don't get Sabathia, could someone like Prior be a target? Maybe even Garland?"

Why Prior? The Dodgers don't need a 5th starter rehab job when they bring back Park and/or slot McDonald into the rotation. As for Garland, he is a known commodity and innings eater, but the Dodgers need either an ace or a guy to serve as number 2 to Billingsley, not a 4.50 ERA innings eater when they have a better version of that in Kuroda.

"Id probably bring Penny back for 7mm"

Penny won't come back for $7 million. If the Dodgers decline his option, he will get more than $7 million on the open market. That said, the Dodgers are not happy with his behavior this season.

If the Dodgers were actually to persue Beltre, what would the Mariners persue in return?

For one year of Beltre at market rate, the Mariners would probably want at least one good one player as well as another lesser player.

The Mariners would probably try and pry Andrew Lambo from LA, but I would expect him to be offlimits.

Would the Dodgers be willing to do a deal of Beltre for Elbert and Hu/DeJesus?

They'd have to give up a good young lefty, but considering that Hu and DeJesus are quite similar, I'm sure they would be willing to move one of those guys.

"The thing with Peavy, is recent talks have the Padres asking price starting with Kemp and/or Kershaw, plus another prospect. If they could somehow place only Kershaw in there, and throw in 5 AA, and AAA prospects, I'd pull the trigger ASAP. It would be like the Dan Haren trade for the D-Backs."

Are you a Padres fan?

You do realize that Kershaw could be equally as good as Peavy by the end of this season? Clayton Kershaw is a simply unbelievable talent, and I don't think there is a veteran pitcher out there I would trade him for.

And from what I've read/heard, the Dodgers haven't ever asked for Kershaw or Kemp. Presumably they know better. I would expect that the Padres asked about guys like McDonald, Elbert, Hu, DeJesus and Lambo.

Sorry for the double post. Scribbletone added some good stuff I wanted to get to.

"Would the Dodgers be willing to do a deal of Beltre for Elbert and Hu/DeJesus?"

Now that wouldn't be a bad deal to swing, but I still think Beltre's contract price is too high. Also, as a Dodger fan, I would favor Hu being the one moved because, while Hu projects to have more power, DeJesus is the better overall hitter.

"Clayton Kershaw is a simply unbelievable talent, and I don't think there is a veteran pitcher out there I would trade him for."

Well, perhaps a Cole Hamels or a Tim Lincecum. That does make a point about what kind of a talent he is. A lefty who throws 95 and has a freak curve does not come along all that often.

"I would expect that the Padres asked about guys like McDonald, Elbert, Hu, DeJesus and Lambo."

McDonald/Elbert/Hu sounds pretty fair, though I fear McDonald is poised to become a lot better than even the projections because of his combination of a great fastball and 3 well controlled secondary pitches. Even replacing Hu with Lambo wouldn't be bad, so long as the Dodgers committed to holding on to Kemp and Ethier.

Actually, I think the Dodgers really need to look at taking a page out of the book of smaller market clubs and start handing out longer term contracts to their young players. Ethier is ripe for one, as is Billingsley. Doing that would probably get Martin to sit down and talk about one as well.

"Well, perhaps a Cole Hamels or a Tim Lincecum. That does make a point about what kind of a talent he is. A lefty who throws 95 and has a freak curve does not come along all that often."

Yeah, yeah. When I meant veteran pitchers I guess I should've added that I meant guys that're like 27 and older. Obviously I would move Kershaw for a guy like Lincecum, who is an equal in terms of talent and has already nearly reached his ceiling, while still being young and affordable. But in terms of guys that're nearing free agency or have already gone through it, I wouldn't move Kershaw for a single one of them.

And I agree that the Dodgers should probably persue long term deals with a lot of these guys. I mean look at Evan Longoria's contract. That's going to be a massive steal. Same with David Wright and Jose Reyes. I think sitting down guys like Ethier, Billingsley and Martin, and just figuring out what they would want in a long term deal, would be a very good move.

Scribbletone - You and I have a habit of posting at the same time.

"And I agree that the Dodgers should probably persue long term deals with a lot of these guys. I mean look at Evan Longoria's contract. That's going to be a massive steal. Same with David Wright and Jose Reyes. I think sitting down guys like Ethier, Billingsley and Martin, and just figuring out what they would want in a long term deal, would be a very good move."

Well, one issue is that the Dodgers would be looking at different numbers given where their guys are in the 6 year cycle. Longoria had barely started his MLB career, so they had 3 years of near minimum to play with. Ethier and Martin are going to Arbitration this year, with Bills, Kemp and Loney next year. That means they have to value the first 3-4 years of the Ethier and Martin contracts differently. To sign Martin, they would have to look to go over and above the max value of Braun's contract, with Ethier hitting somewhere around $10-15 million less than Martin. Perhaps something like 5/40 for Ethier and 5/55 for Martin. John Lackey's contract could serve as a model for Billingsley, with the deal going perhaps for 4/25 with a $11 million option for the 5th.

"Far as I can tell, Ardoin has less than three years service time."

I don't think it is just about his service time, which is close. He has been around so long that I believe he is a free agent based on his overall time in professional baseball.

"Sorry for how poorly written that last post was. But the main question is why aren't they interested in re-signing Lowe?"

It was also written that Lowe wanted to move closer to his birthplace and family

Actually AA and Scrible I am a Dodgers fan, and that's what I heard circulating on some rumors. But if the Dodgers were to package the players you listed (starting with Elbert, Hu, and DeJesus) I'd pull the trigger IMMEDIATELY on that trade.

And if it appears Manny isn't returning, trade for Peavy and sign Sabathia. Load up on pitching. If we could land both of those guys we'd have easily the best 1-2 punch in the majors.

Yeah, I don't see them trading Kershaw at all, but I could see them perhaps using Kemp to get a Peavy.

And I'd have to believe there is a good chance Penny will be back. Considering how it would be relatively cheap for a guy who can be an all-star pitcher when healthy, and with Torre stressing the need for pitching, it just makes sense to me. I guess it really depends on how healthy he looks.

the ManRam thing is dangerous
Sabathia less so
mccourt has to look at peripheral value in the short term, like merch sales
plunking down for both all but guarantees a return to the playoffs. as the young guys showed against the phils, they need to work through playoff jitttterzzz
the theory being that by the time you get to these guys being the bulk of your payroll they know how to win and you can surround them with an FA or two as opposed to the recent years of buying FAs to build something
not my money, of course, but i'd pay manny huge now to get a shorter term

and mcc just has to look at andruw and schmidt as tax writeoffs!

mccourt screwed himself over. he is the one who signed jones, not colleti. im willing to bet he did the schmidt contract also, but wont admit to it so he doesnt look stupid.

as for the offseason. smeone said it earlier. the fact that we could sign furcal, cc, and manny w/o raising payroll. thats pretty amazing.

now for peavy. could they accept an offer of elbert, hu, maza? if they want another pitcher, then elbert, pitcher not named bills, kershaw, or mcdonald(he could easily start, and could be around a bills or kershaw in a few yrs.), and hu or maza.could you imagine a 1-2-3 punch of cc, peavy, bills, along with kershaw and kuroda? you dont even need mcdonald to start. I guess if NECCESARY only, a deal of elbert/mcdonald/hu. then you have an offense including manny, martin(wont get traded), furcal, kemp, ethier, etc. then the only question is 2b/3b. dewitt will start in one. i think move dewitt back to third, and sign hudson. if they "cant afford it", keep dewitt at 2b, and sign crede or blake. that means cc, manny, furcal, peavy, and hudson for about 18m. that includes 9 for hudson and peavy(i believe his contract is 9m).

no matter wat team, thats pretty impresive.

How much is an Orlando Hudson going for in the very thin 2b market?

Yeah, didn't we claim Maza from the Twins? He has a decent bat, but isn't anything special by any stretch. He's a good guy to have on the bench or for backup infield depth though.

I would assume the Padres would be asking for at least one high-level pitching prospect (probably Elbert or McDonald) along with a SS (to replace Greene) and a couple outfielders to help their exceptionally depleted outfield depth. We have even enough depth at SS in the minors to let Hu or DeJesus go (I'd rather hold onto Mattingley just to see what he can turn into), and we could package a couple outfielders including Delwyn Young (who deserves full-time play but probably won't get it with the Dodgers).

Get pitching!! This is the main reason i like torre. He understands that pitching is priority #1. My first choices are CC and Dempster. Burnett and or Garland could be intersting too. Imagine CC as your ace, Dempster, Billingsley, Kuroda then Kershaw, McDonald, or Schmidt. Find a way to get Beltre, Furcal at short Dewitt at second Loney at first. Pierre will get dealt, and if they dont sign Manny.. Kemp in left, Ethier in Right, and hopefully the real Andruw Jones in center. Wouldnt mind seeing them sign Juan Rivera, or possibly a 2nd round of Milton Bradley. They lose Schmidts and Joneses contract after 09 Meaning they could possibly backload a deal or two. It also seems as if they would have a team that could sustain itself and stay together a while. The coninuity of the team hasnt been too great the lasat couple years. They have a ton of depth in the orginization to fill up the bullpen and throughout. Good time to be a Dodger fan!

i wasnt expecting a trade with maza, just putting it out there. if they trade for peavy, the pads prob get hu, elbert, paul?? i would put delyon young, but he just had elbow surgery, but will be ready for ST. also, if abreu is healthy, cause i know they expect great things from him, could a deal be:

dodgers get
peavy

pads get
hu
elbert
abreu
outfield prospect( not sure who)

if not abreu maybe dejesus or dewitt

Yeah, McDonald, Hu, Lambo, and Elbert seems like a much more realistic package, but I still don't know if that would be enough to land him.

Im starting to think that we should not trade for Peavy (or anyone else that that would take Kemp, Kershaw, Martin, Mcdonald), and see how Mcdonald can do as a starter for us in 08.

I do, however, think we should make a trade for Beltre, along the lines of Elbert, Hu, and another low level prospect.

Also, if we dont resign manny, it would suck, but i think if jones is healthy, he could be a 20 homerun hitter (no one can seriously go from at least a 25 homerun a year hitter to 3), and i would be fine with a jones/pierre platoon.

Another good option, i think, would be pat burrell, or maybe even juan rivera, who would be a cheap option compared to many other FA outfielders.

We have got to make our number 1 priority to resign Furcal, which i would do another 3 year deal, maybe 4.

Since we would not be going after Manny, going after CC (while retaining furcal) would be a must. If we do lose the CC sweepstakes, we go after Ben Sheets (injury risk, i know, but he is a very good pitcher, lets try it for 2 or 3 years around 12-16 mill a year). If not sheets or CC, then i actually think Oliver Perez could turn out to be a good option, he just might be a bit expensive.

After that we have Dewitt play 2b.

I think our team could end up looking something like this:

C. Martin
1B. Loney
2b. Dewitt
3b. Beltre
SS. Furcal
LF. Burrell/Juan Rivera/Kemp/Pierre
CF.Kemp/Pierre/Jones
RF. Ethier

If CC or sheets is signed:

1.CC/Sheets
2. Billingsley
3. Kuroda
4. Kershaw
5. Mcdonald

If CC or sheets is not signed, and lesser sp is:

1. Billingsley
2. O. Perez
3. Kuroda
4. Kershaw
5. Mcdonald

I believe the bullpen will stay relatively the same, maybe minus Park (not sure he wants to be here).

If we go for CC or Sheets, i would go for the cheaper outfield option, or just use Jones or Pierre.

Anyone want to put a guess on what players like furcal, oliver perez, CC, sheets will cost? I have a general idea, but, besides CC, i havent heard any realistic figures on these guys.

If Colletti sticks to his short contract strategy, I don't see Sabathia ending up as a Dodger. The Dodgers offer short length, high cash. Sabathia will get his cash, plus a long term deal. However, any team that acquires him will be dealing with the most abused pitcher the past few seasons. The chance he is injured over the next 6 years is almost certain.
If the Dodgers go after any FA pitchers, it should be Sheets for 2 years. With Bills, Kuroda, Kershaw, McDonald, Stults and possibly Elbert and Schmidt, the Dodgers won't need Sheets to remain healthy the entire season. Plus, if the are able to re-sign Manny and Furcal and trade Pierre, they could be leading the division by the time Schilling decides to pick a team for the 2nd half of the season. Just get Sheets healthy for the playoffs and the Dodgers are better off than adding Sabathia.
Also, while people talk about trading for Beltre, one name who might not require as many prospects might be Hank Blalock. I'd love to see him in LA.

"I totally forgot about Abreu. He's an attractive prospect (despite his hernia last year), and is expendable."

The only thing attractive about Tony Abreu is his ability to play 3 positions on the infield. His contact numbers in the minors look ok, but the guy's marginal speed likely took a huge hit from the injury and he has little power.

"Park (not sure he wants to be here)."

Seems you pay little attention to Park. A big part of his resurgence is Park's comfort living in Los Angeles around the massive Korean community and with his family. He owns businesses here and has roots here. The reason he came to ST this year with the Dodgers is because of the location.

"C: Martin ($800K)"
"Ethier ($500K)"

Dude. Martin is going to make something between $3m and $5m next year and Ethier somewhere around $2-$3m. They are both arbitration eligible.

Oh and what is this Kemp or Ethier garbage? Kemp is a better CF in every way than Jones at this point. Platooning them in favor of him is insane.

There is no platooning of Kemp or Ethier. If you have to include one of them to acquire Peavy, you have Jones in CF. If you can acquire Peavy without trading one of them, then both start. But Peavy is more valuable than either Kemp or Ethier, IMO.