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« Where Will Atlanta Find A Bat? | Main | Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins »
Predicting the Tigers Offseason
Tim has already broken down the Tigers situation, noting that they already have $115 million tied up in players for 2009, not counting arbitration raises. With speculation that the team could reduce their payroll by $40MM from the team's $137.7MM Opening Day 2008 figure, that could mean some big changes. This is no good for a team that finished in the cellar.
Jon Paul Morosi of the Detroit Free Press takes a look at the Tigers situation and makes five predictions for what could happen. Let's take a look at what he's come up with:
- First, he doesn't think J.J. Hardy will be manning the six-hole for the Tigers. His name has been bandied about, since Milwaukee has Alcides Escobar in the pipeline. The Brewers would likely require starting pitching in return, which the Tigers don't have. Morosi finds fault in each of the free agent shortstop options as well.
- Morosi thinks that Jim Leyland wants an experienced catcher for 2009, rather than going with internal option Dusty Ryan from the get-go. He mentions Arizona's Miguel Montero, and then, of course, moves to Texas and their surplus. Gerald Laird could be a good fit, though it's not known what the Rangers would want in return.
- The Tigers could also look to the Rangers for a shortstop. They have Elvis Andrus and Joaquin Arias in the pipeline, as well as Michael Young, whose five-year, $80MM extension just begins kicking in for 2009. To get a catcher and a shortstop from Texas, I would imagine, wouldn't happen without the inclusion of Rick Porcello.
- Following in the White Sox footsteps, the Tigers could pick up some free agent parts to fill out their bullpen. Wil Ohman will be a free agent, as will Brandon Lyon. The Yankees could decline Damaso Marte's option as well. Since the Tigers finished in the bottom 15, they wouldn't lose a first rounder for signing the probable Type-A.
- Finally, Morosi thinks that the Tigers will shop Magglio Ordonez, but not find the right price. It would, however, server the purpose of reducing payroll and plugging other holes. Leyland says the team would have to be blown away by an offer, though.
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The right price is whatever they can get..
Posted by: Meoveryouok | October 06, 2008 at 11:47 AM
I'm pretty sure the Brewers wouldn't mind getting Rick Porcello for JJ Hardy. I'm betting that Porcello ends up with another team. It's just too likely, with the Tigers being in more of a win-now mode.
The Rangers REALLY wouldn't mind Porcello for a catcher + SS prospect. Perfect fit for the Angels.
That being said, if I was the GM, I wouldn't trade Porcello. Period. Cost-controlled pitching, even 4-5 starters, are extremely valuable in this league. Just ask...the Tigers. They're really missing Jair Jurrjens right now.
Posted by: melonis rex | October 06, 2008 at 11:51 AM
Why did I say "Angels"?
***Perfect fit for the RANGERS. Not for the Angels.
Posted by: melonis rex | October 06, 2008 at 11:52 AM
He's a perfect fit for the Rangers, but a good fit for the Angels as well. Then again, Porcello would fit right in with any team.
Posted by: Meoveryouok | October 06, 2008 at 11:57 AM
Joaquin Arias is not the answer to anyone's starting shortstop questions.
Posted by: aap212 | October 06, 2008 at 11:58 AM
I would be shocked if Porcello was involved in any deal. Absolutely shocked. It's never freakin happening. The only way the Tigers would be interested is if it's a Miguel Cabrera level player. And I don't see any other teams willing to do that.
The Tigers have a few low-level pitching prospects that I would suspect they will try to deal for a backup catcher or a defensive minded SS.
Posted by: thedrizzle79 | October 06, 2008 at 12:18 PM
arias is questionable for 2b, let alone SS
tigrs ethuston streetand bobby croby..for what i'm not sure
i'd say magglio but A's cant picku that much salary
Posted by: arly2380 | October 06, 2008 at 12:28 PM
"I would be shocked if Porcello was involved in any deal. Absolutely shocked. It's never freakin happening. The only way the Tigers would be interested is if it's a Miguel Cabrera level player. And I don't see any other teams willing to do that."
Agreed. The above was just to say what Texas would want. Clearly, you don't give up Porcello for Laird and Andrus.
Posted by: Joe Pawlikowski | October 06, 2008 at 01:14 PM
Any chance we could see a Dontrell for Lugo trade. Both are coming off of horrible injury plagued years and neither team would have to eat any extra contract. On paper it looks like a win-win trade.
Posted by: AdamEich | October 06, 2008 at 02:08 PM
Little of what is referenced here makes a whole lot of sense.
1. The Tigers have not indicated that they are drastically cutting payroll, least not by this arbitrary $40m mark.
2. The team will not deal what few pieces they have left for players who will most likely amount to stop-gaps. Despite Leyland's apparent discomfort with trusting younger players Dombrowski has basically told him to deal with it.
The starting SS next year might be Renteria, it might be Danny Worth or it might also be a cheap fielding guy like Adam Everett. Dombrowski apparently likes Cale Iorg a lot and sees little point in dealing for a long-term solution at that position.
Same goes for C. While its been noted that the team may go after a LH or switch-hitting catcher like Valentin, Varitek or Estrada to platoon with Ryan, the chances of dealing for a longer term solution like Laird are slim. I also think it's possible that a Thames for Schneider deal is possible.
3. The reliever scenario seems more on point. It's probable that Lyon, Juan Cruz or Rafael Soriano could be brought in to compete for (or be given) the closer's spot.
4. Porcello isn't going anywhere. Even if Dombrowski wanted to trade him he'd probably wait till the kid had some innings at levels higher than A+.
5. I think The Tigers might push pretty hard for an Ordonez trade, even if it means eating some salary. If the guy makes 125 starts next season he's guaranteed for '10 and '11 at $33m. That's a lot of commitment to a 35 year old outfielder. He might stay healthy but would you take that chance if you didn't have to?
Posted by: MacRae | October 06, 2008 at 02:15 PM
Ball is kind of in the Sox court on a Lugo trade. They'd be adding $4m in payroll for a guy who hasn't had a good season since 2006. There's gotta be a lower-risk candidate to get back for a SS.
Posted by: MacRae | October 06, 2008 at 02:20 PM
These predictions are laughable to anyone who knows Tigers' baseball.
Posted by: ToThePoint | October 06, 2008 at 02:24 PM
"There's gotta be a lower-risk candidate to get back for a SS."
I agree. Plus, I think Dontrelle has a little more upside to him.
Posted by: allenri2 | October 06, 2008 at 02:24 PM
"Clearly, you don't give up Porcello for Laird and Andrus."
Don't worry about this trade happening. The Rangers would want more than Porcello for Andrus and Laird. Laird can be had, but any package of one of their catchers and Andrus (and maybe a pitching prospect) will only happen for a ML ready young pitcher...Greinke, Cain...etc
Young catchers, as currency, are almost as valuable as pitching, and Andrus is coming on in a hurry. Maybe if Porcello was dominating in AAA.
Posted by: snakebite | October 06, 2008 at 04:07 PM
Maggs on the trade block? Could the Cubs make a run? Maybe by offering Jason Marquis, Felix Pie, and another player. Kosuke Fukudome would just have to learn to play CF. They could bring Reed Johnson back as the 4th OF. The Cubs proved in their 2nd straight downer in the playoffs, they lack a clutch, big game hitter. I know Aramis Ramirez was Mr. Clutch during the regular season, but he was a no show, again, in the playoffs. Put Magglio Behind him, and all will be good. Or, move Lee to 5th, Ramirez to 3rd, and Maggs 4th.
Soriano, Theriot, Lee, Ramirez, Ordonez, Soto, DeRosa, Fukudome
OR
Soriano, Theriot, Ramirez, Ordonez, Lee, Soto, DeRosa, Fukudome
.....I like that.
Posted by: jlb1980 | October 06, 2008 at 04:15 PM
Why would the Rangers be interested in a Laird and Andrus trade? So the Rangers give up one of their top prospects for another unproven prospect?
WOW, the Tigers must really value Porcello!
If something for Young and Laird could be done with Porcello and another.... that would be worth entertaining.
If Texas was giving up Laird and Andrus, I bet they would expect a Cain, Peavy, or Greinke in return.
Posted by: rangersvoice | October 06, 2008 at 04:23 PM
The reducing payroll notion is bs. And being in "Win now" mode is what got the Tigers in this predicament in the first place. I would like to see Ohman in a Tigers uniform to get Seay out of the way, but we need more help in the bullpen than him. Unfortunately, there just isn't much help available. Not for cheap. As far as shortstop goes, I say give Santiago a chance.
Posted by: Calriver | October 06, 2008 at 05:11 PM
Porcello is very good, but the issue is more that The Tigers believe they have SS and C prospects who can play average to above average baseball in the majors. So exchanging a pitcher who projects as an ace for anything less than a super-star isn't really worth it at this point. Of course if Iorg (SS) or Ryan (C) do not pan out they may change their minds.
Posted by: MacRae | October 06, 2008 at 05:13 PM
I would expect that Andrus is on the "untouchable" list, considering how crappy Mike Young's defense has gotten. Saw him play in Frisco this year - that kid (Andrus) is pretty special. Other names that are being bandied about by people who know nothing of the Rangers and WILL NOT be traded: Chris Davis, Justin Smoak, Neftali Feliz, Derrick Holland, Michael Main, Blake Beavan, Kasey Kiker, Julio Borbon, Angel Beltre
Posted by: J the Dizzolla | October 06, 2008 at 05:26 PM
"Don't worry about this trade happening. The Rangers would want more than Porcello for Andrus and Laird. Laird can be had, but any package of one of their catchers and Andrus (and maybe a pitching prospect) will only happen for a ML ready young pitcher...Greinke, Cain...etc
Young catchers, as currency, are almost as valuable as pitching, and Andrus is coming on in a hurry. Maybe if Porcello was dominating in AAA."
Ok so it's clear that you alone understand how the Rangers front office is thinking. Because if you say that deal isn't happening, we should just accept that.
"If something for Young and Laird could be done with Porcello and another.... that would be worth entertaining.
If Texas was giving up Laird and Andrus, I bet they would expect a Cain, Peavy, or Greinke in return."
I'm not sure which statement is funnier, let's just ignore all the reported Detroit payroll slashing, and try to dump 5yr/80 mil Michael Young on them. Or the fact you think Laird and Andrus would even be the centerpiece for pitchers of that caliber.
Posted by: Meoveryouok | October 06, 2008 at 07:00 PM
Here is just an idea I was thinking for a trade. Cubs could trade Zambrano to the Tigers for Mags and Granderson. Cubs could add Pie or Fukudome and another prospect. Any thoughts. Just an idea?!?!
Posted by: uww1 | October 06, 2008 at 07:30 PM
I am still not for sure why everyone thinks the Tigers or going to slash payroll. I think all of one reporter said this might be a possibility and it has turned into the Tigers are slashing payroll.
Now I don't think they are going to sign any huge free agents and they might look at moving Magglio but they are not going to just give him away for crap like Jason Marquis and Felix Pie.
Posted by: RCFOM | October 06, 2008 at 07:54 PM
If they trade Maggalio do they seriously expect themself to be in contention though?
sure a ton went wrong this year. but some of the gaping holes isn't simply luck induced. if they trade magglio they go into 09 with essentially 2 really good hitter, a decent one, and the rest ranging from mediocare to bad.
Posted by: Yu Hsing Chen | October 06, 2008 at 09:02 PM
But without better pitching it won't matter either way. One would hope that if Verlander and Bonderman pitch to their talent and the bullpen gets better the team wouldn't miss Maggs quite as much.
And even so a lineup of:
Granderson
Polanco
Guillen
Cabrera
Sheffield
Joyce/Thames
SS
C
Inge
Isn't exactly the worst thing that's ever been put on a baseball diamond.
Posted by: MacRae | October 06, 2008 at 09:22 PM
I am curious about what kind of match Ramon Hernandez would be for the Tigers starting catcher next year. Do the Orioles just t would they want besides pitching? Also the Tigers have another catching prospect, besides Dusty Ryan, that they think could be their eventual starter in James Skelton.
Posted by: greenspan3000 | October 06, 2008 at 09:39 PM
uww1, Granderson is one of few untouchables. Never going to happen.
Posted by: catswithbats | October 10, 2008 at 04:04 PM
#1) The tigers ALREADY HAVE significantly reduced their payroll. Do you think that Pudge Rodriguez, Edgar Renteria, Kenny Rogers and Todd Jones were playing for peanuts. That's over 20 million slashed already.
#2) The tigers ARE NOT going to be going after a long-term short-stop prospect. Dave Dombrowski has described Cale Iorg as a "superstar, sooner rather than later." We're not going to give up big value for a young guy like JJ Hardy, or an exciting prospect. Odds are that we sign or trade for a guy like Ceasar Izturis who plays defense, steals bases and can lead off.
#3) We will shop Magglio, but actually trading him is about 50/50. He's our best offensive player, and really, our offense wasn't THAT spectacular last year. Furthermore, this is Sheffield's last year, and Maggs could be a productive DH for years to come. He's one of the BEST hitter in the game, no doubt, so we'll be asking for at least two stellar prospects...preferably a proven starter and a really exciting position player.
#4) Catcher. DD has said that he wants to get some young guys in there...meaning Dusty Ryan and/or James Skelton. I'm guessing we go with Dusty and an experienced veteran like Michigan native Jason Varitek. Really though, we should've just freaking kept pudge.
Posted by: bige5305 | October 26, 2008 at 01:04 AM
#5) Rick Porcello isn't going ANYWHERE!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: bige5305 | October 26, 2008 at 01:05 AM
I think the Tigers should jettison Sheffield and sign Bonds, if he still wants to play. I know Bonds is a cancer, but really, Sheffield wasn't Mr. Clubhouse neither. Plus, with Bonds, we could easily afford to shop Maggs for pitching and our offense wouldn't skip a beat.
Posted by: rdccdr801 | October 30, 2008 at 07:42 PM