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« Padres Rumors: Moores, Giles, Hoffman | Main | Adam Kennedy Wants A Trade »
The Tigers are next in our Offseason Outlook series. Here's what they have for 2009:
C - Brandon Inge - $6.3MM
C - Dusty Ryan - $400K
1B - Miguel Cabrera - $15MM
2B - Placido Polanco - $4.6MM
SS - Ramon Santiago - $575K+
3B - Carlos Guillen - $10MM
IF - Michael Hollimon - $400K
IF/OF - Ryan Raburn - $400K
LF - Matt Joyce - $400K
CF - Curtis Granderson - $3.5MM
RF - Magglio Ordonez - $18MM
OF - Marcus Thames - $1.275MM+
DH - Gary Sheffield - $14MM
SP - Justin Verlander - $500K+
SP - Jeremy Bonderman - $12.5MM
SP - Armando Galarraga - $400K
SP - Zach Miner - $410K
SP - Nate Robertson - $7MM
RP - Fernando Rodney - $1.7MM+
RP - Gary Glover - $1.075MM+
RP - Bobby Seay - $780K+
RP - Joel Zumaya - $420K+
RP - Aquilino Lopez - $400K
RP - Clay Rapada - $400K
RP - Freddy Dolsi - $400K
Other commitments: Edgar Renteria - $3MM buyout, Rick Porcello - $1.2MM, Dontrelle Willis - $10MM
The Tigers have about $115MM committed for 2009, not including arbitration raises to Santiago, Thames, Rodney, Glover, Seay, Zumaya, and Verlander. So, they should be over $120MM with the current group. The Tigers had an opening day payroll of $137.7MM in 2008. Lynn Henning says to expect a drastic payroll reduction - "perhaps by $40 million or more."
As Henning notes, the Tigers may need to trade Ordonez to slice payroll down to the $100MM range. Maggs is the team's highest-paid player, and he has a fine .892 OPS. Ordonez essentially comes with a three-year, $48MM contract. Certain teams might find that contract acceptable, but not if the price also includes quality young players. The Braves might be a good match if the Tigers are mainly looking for salary relief.
No team would assume the contracts of Sheffield, Robertson, or Willis, so there's no point in trading them. Polanco, Bonderman, and Thames probably have trade value, but the Tigers don't necessarily have ready replacements.
Even if the Tigers move Ordonez's contract, they won't have much left over for free agents. It's hard to picture marquee free agents like Francisco Rodriguez, C.C. Sabathia, or Rafael Furcal being considered if Henning's report is accurate. They might be able to dig around the bargain bin, re-upping Freddy Garcia and adding a nondescript veteran reliever.
The Tigers can contend in 2009, but it'll probably require comebacks from current players such as Bonderman, Willis, Verlander, Robertson, Sheffield, Rodney, and Zumaya. The Tigers have one blue-chip prospect in Rick Porcello, who might be able to contribute in the second half.
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The Tigers need 3 main things:
1.) Starting Pitching
2.) A legitimate everyday SS
3.) MLB ready Bullpen help
Teams that have excess in at least two of those categories can include:
Rays, Dodgers, Angels, Giants, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Twins (maybe), Phillies (maybe).
Do any Tiger fans out there have any thoughts on what it may take to land Magglio for any of the aforementioned teams?
Posted by: The Juice | September 18, 2008 at 03:20 PM
Tigers are pretty much screwed. Robertson, Inge, Bonderman, Sheffield, Willis are some horrible contracts. If they want to contend in 2009, they should trade Magglio for full salary relief, get some bullpen/utility players and sign FAs with the spare money. There is no chance they are contending and reducing payroll at the same time
Posted by: viktor06 | September 18, 2008 at 03:27 PM
The Juice:
Phillies- Carrasco is as good as gone in a Maggs deal. Donald or Marson is probably gone as well. Pat Gillick would do that deal.
Posted by: melonis rex | September 18, 2008 at 03:31 PM
I wonder if Detroit will take the risk of offering Edgar Renteria arbitration. They would love the two draft picks but I don't know if they can take the risk of him accepting.
I also I am not sure who would pay the $3 mil buyout. I have heard different things. Either Red Sox or Tigers will be paying it.
Posted by: FlimtotheFlam | September 18, 2008 at 03:33 PM
I doubt the Red Sox and Tigers could get together on a Lugo trade... they'd want salary relief or a B+ prospect to keep the whole salary. Can we get Porcello if we take on his salary? (Yes, that's a joke)
I still think trading the Blue Jays for McDonald is a good idea, solves the defense issues if you don't mind the weak bat. Or they could always just put their faith in Santiago. For a reliever, again, buy low on Gregg... still better than Todd Jones.
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | September 18, 2008 at 03:37 PM
This team is in bad shape. They have needs and no resources to fill them. Inge, Sheffield, Bonderman, Robertson and Willis are all looking like terrible contracts and hampering their ability to improve. I hope Detroit fans are looking forward to more years of baseball misery.
Posted by: drchstrpunk | September 18, 2008 at 03:38 PM
"This team is in bad shape."
QFT
Posted by: Meoveryouok | September 18, 2008 at 04:02 PM
So I guess the Cabrera-Willis trade didn't put them in a better position to contend with the White Sox after all.
Posted by: cabiness42 | September 18, 2008 at 04:06 PM
I don't think the Tigers would sell that low on Magglio as proposed with the "Downs and McDonald trade".
I do like the idea of McDonald as an addition to the Tigers because they shouldn't be seeking huge offensive upgrades because they still have a solid core.
I would really like to see them make a splash for some starting pitching. They don't have to break the bank, but it may be interesting to see if they can work a deal with another team with a bad salary or a team that would eat salary and still pay a good price.
For exmample: Jonathan Sanchez, Brad Hennessey, and Henry Sosa for Magglio. Sanchez and Hennessey can be used as starters or swingmen providing valuable innings, and Sosa has some upside. It doesn't give the Tigers a SS, but it adds some much needed pitching help.
If successful they should go after McDonald in an alternative trade scenario.
Posted by: The Juice | September 18, 2008 at 04:13 PM
I would say it did Andrew. Cabrera + Willis has been significantly more valuable than Maybin + Miller would've been this year.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | September 18, 2008 at 04:15 PM
"Maybe Magglio to the Blue Jays for Scott Downs and Marco Scutaro/John McDonald. The Blue Jays have a lot of money to spend and only give up a spare-part shortstop and a good reliever to get a great hitter. They have the money to afford him. The Tigers get a good, experienced lefty reliever and a decent shortstop. They also have money to spend on a starting pitcher. The Tigers need a right fielder if they trade Magglio."
That's somewhere around fair value, but where does Ordonez fit in on the Jays team? They have Rios, Wells and Lind locked in for at least 5 more years. They also have the best outfield prospect in the league almost ready to go, so they will probably be looking for a DH on a 1 year commitment if anything.
Posted by: Grant77 | September 18, 2008 at 04:18 PM
Why would Jays trade for Magglio, dont they have Rios, Wells, Lind and Snider already?
Posted by: viktor06 | September 18, 2008 at 04:18 PM
That's why Downs and McDonald are not enough. It needs to feature one of Snider or Lind, with Lind being the most likely choice. I think a team that gives Adam Lind regular playing time will be very happy with their decision.
Magglio and Snider can shuffle between LF and DH. Seems like a fit.
Posted by: The Juice | September 18, 2008 at 04:23 PM
If the Reds don't make a run at Mags they are stupid. They have needed a potent RH bat for 5 years in that lineup. They don't have a SS, but they do have young arms like Burton, Bray, Massett, and Roenicke in the bullpen and Owings, Bailey, Thompson, and Maloney as possible rotation guys.
Posted by: carolina03 | September 18, 2008 at 04:24 PM
Of the above names mentioned it would take a lot to pull Maggs out of Detroit. Because of down years you would be looking at something like:
Owings
Bailey
Valaika
Mesoraco
Even I think that price is too steep, but you never know how desperate Cinci will get with Dunn's departure.
Posted by: The Juice | September 18, 2008 at 04:31 PM
Take Mesoraco out of the Reds package and it might be do-able. No way will the Reds part with their only real catching propsect.
Posted by: MickS | September 18, 2008 at 04:49 PM
I think that if Sheffield hits HR 500, we hope that he retires. Since he won't, he's stuck occupying the DH spot.
I think that it would be a good idea to find a SS, any SS and leave Santiago as the utility IF. I think that they should trade Thames (if possible) for Gregg?? maybe or some relief help or SS. That means having Larish in the majors next year, and I think he can contribute for sure.
Resigning Garcia would be a good move given the lack of stability in the rotation.
Verlander is the only lock there. Bonderman will be there if he is healthy and Robertson will be too if he can get his slider under control. That leaves Miner, Galarraga and Willis (and Gracia?) to battle. More than likely, Miner will become a long reliever again and his stats say that he does well in that role.
Bullpen is murky. The only one that I don't think will make it is Dolsi. Hopefully we get Gregg, Lyon or someone else to fill that spot.
I doubt Porcello makes in to MLB next year unless he does extremely well in AA next year. (I still hope he does though.)
Posted by: TigerFan54 | September 18, 2008 at 05:13 PM
Tigers Starting Rotation 2009:
1. Verlander
2. Bonderman (healthy)
3. Galarraga
4. Willis (mentally fine)
5. Garcia
We finally get rid of Todd Jones.
The Tigers will pick Renteria's option, no one else available.
C. Inge
1B. Cabrera
2B. Polanco
SS. Renteria
3B. Guillen
CF. Granderson
RF. Ordonez
LF. Thames
DH. Sheffield
I look for the Tigers to try and find new homes for Robertson and Sheffield. Robertson has some value left, if not just a little. Sheffield has picked it up as of late, and with one year left can help another team in the AL, maybe TB or Tor.
Posted by: detbaseball | September 18, 2008 at 05:28 PM
If the Reds are going to eat the whole salary for Mags it should only take three prospects/contributors. Why would the Tigers take two fringe starters and a ss prospect when they are trying to compete next year. They need a ready right now bullpen arm, which Burton or Bray provide. This will also provide a little cash wiggle room to sign another piece if need be.
I would rather see one of Bailey/Owings, one of Burton/Bray/Massett, and one of Valaika/Stubbs. Mesoraco stays put b/c he is the only catching prospect this team has had since Bench.
The Reds should not give up both of what are still their best starting pitching prospects, one of whom will probably be the number 5 guy next year.
Posted by: carolina03 | September 18, 2008 at 05:38 PM
Khalil Greene & Cla Meredith
for
Magglio Ordonez
Posted by: WestCoastBias | September 18, 2008 at 05:47 PM
I doubt the Jay's would want to trade Snyder or Lind, as those two seem to be a part of their future.
Snyder will take over the 1B if either Overbay gets traded, or when Overbay's contract is finished.
Lind is more of a DH, as his defense in left just isn't very good.
In any case, since the Tigers seem to need bullpen help, I do think it's possible that the Jays are an ideal trading partner. Downs is one of the best relievers the Jays have, if not one of the best in the AL; and the Tigers are interested in getting rid of payroll. So I think it's entirely possible a Mags for Downs and McDonald trade is possible.
One can also propose a B.J. Ryan and McDonald for Magglio trade, but since the Tigers want to get rid of payroll, I don't think that will happen.
Posted by: Patrick | September 18, 2008 at 05:48 PM
WestCoastBias,I think that would be a great trade for both teams...the Tigers get help in the 'pen and an experienced SS...while the Padres add some pop to their lineup and a replacement for Giles
Posted by: nymforlife | September 18, 2008 at 06:23 PM
I'm not sure who would trade for Ordonez. He's still hitting well, of course; I'm not knocking him. But he's aging and expensive. The Phillies would be much better off resigning Burrell and keeping their prospects. As pointed out, the Jays have Wells, Rios, Lind, and Snider; Ordonez makes no sense for them. Somebody like the Yankees, maybe, but he'd likely be a one-year fill-in--and he has three contract years. I don't think Maggs is very moveable, all things considered. I definitely don't think you can get the high end prospects he probably deserves, given his age and contract.
Posted by: Playwright | September 18, 2008 at 06:32 PM
The Braves must be interested but they would have to include Hanson, Morton, Parr or Medlin in the deal. Maybe two of them.
Lillibridge would be the SS but of course he's had an awful year at the plate.
A third team may need to be involved to make this work.
Posted by: ink-stained scribe | September 18, 2008 at 07:08 PM
The Tigers should just face reality and start rebuilding. They couldn't contend this year. What makes them think they will be able to contend in the near future? Their farm system is below average at best(meaning they don't have the prospects to trade for needs or promote to fill needs). Not to mention that they will be cutting payroll in the coming years, meaning cutting some of the only talent they have(Mags, etc.). So with that, what is going to make them into contenders?
Just face facts, and sell most of the major league talent that still have value, and rebuild
Posted by: defense | September 18, 2008 at 07:14 PM
here's an idea
ordonez
for street/crosby
tigers dump the remaining contract of magglio
they fill 2 needs
above avg close in street
if they wanted jack wilson could crosby, younger, cheaper interest them?
Posted by: arly2380 | September 18, 2008 at 10:04 PM
first and foremost we need a new manager and coaching staff.
i say trade maggs for pitching and a shortstop. fills 2 needs...while leaving an outfield spot for Clete Thomas and Matt Joyce.
we can also trade thames for some bullpen help, a few teams are looking for a OF Slugger. we also need to force sheffield to retire, making Carlos Guillen our everyday DH, while moving inge back to 3rd and dusty ryan as our catcher.
our lineup would look like this
1. Thomas
2. Polanco
3. Granderson
4. Cabrera
5. Guillen
6. Joyce
7. SHORTSTOP-John Mcdonald
8 Inge
9. Ryan
Posted by: Quantumleaper(GoTigers) | September 18, 2008 at 10:57 PM
There is no way that the Padres are going to trade for Maggs, he is owed 48 million over the next 3 years, way to rich for SD's blood. The same goes for Oakland.
The Tigers will be hard pressed to get full value for Maggs, unless that rumor about cutting payroll to 100 million is not true. If they shop him it pretty much confirms the rumor and teams will not surrender the prospects that the Tigers want.
Posted by: AirmanSD | September 18, 2008 at 10:59 PM
When you going to do the Cubs outlook?
Posted by: CUBBIES2008 | September 18, 2008 at 11:22 PM
Is there any chance the Tigers trade Curtis Granderson? I'm curious, not suggesting it.
Posted by: AtlantaBred | September 18, 2008 at 11:32 PM
I just don't see any market for Maggs IF the Tigers are expecting the trade partner to pick up the entire tab.
Dunn, Burrell and Manny will all put up similar offensive numbers and will cost about the same without having to give up talent in return (other than a draft pick).
Posted by: bjsguess | September 19, 2008 at 01:56 AM
"When you going to do the Cubs outlook?"
I am normally not the type to harp on grammatical errors...but seriously that's attrocious. As a Cubs fan, i look forward to it too, but Tim said at the beginning that he was doing the teams that are out of contention first. Once again, sorry for even caring about these sorts of things, but i couldn't help myself when i read it.
Posted by: cycub | September 19, 2008 at 06:25 AM
"Is there any chance the Tigers trade Curtis Granderson? I'm curious, not suggesting it."
Virtually impossible, even if they had a complete firesale. His contract is still considerably team friendly and he's one of the most overlooked hitters in the game. If he stole more bases the question of him or Grady Sizemore being more valuable would be harder to say.
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | September 19, 2008 at 06:40 AM
I don't think you'll be able to trade Maggs for a good haul without eating a good portion of his contract. It will be a salary dump for a few decent prospects, and the price will ratchet up in proportion to how much contract is kept by the Tigers. But it sounds like Detroit isn't going to eat any of the contract, so I would probably expect something on the order of what Oakland got for Harden for the high end, but probably a little less.
Posted by: Something Profound | September 19, 2008 at 07:59 AM
"If he stole more bases the question of him or Grady Sizemore being more valuable would be harder to say."
No, it wouldn't be. Grady gets on base much more, and has more XBH power. The fact that he can run, play outstanding D, and is apparently incredibly sexy is just the icing on the cake.
Posted by: 92-93 | September 19, 2008 at 09:37 AM
And most of you nail the Magglio situation - with the plethora of good bats on the market this offseason (Teixeira, Dunn, Abreu, Manny, Burrell, Ibanez, Giambi...) there is no reason for a GM to give up significant prospects or pieces to land Ordonez. Even trading for Matt Holliday would be a better idea, because you can get him for one year and then restock with the 2 picks he would get you, whereas Magz' compensation would come farther down the road.
If the Tigers were reasonable about it and realized that, the Jays would probably be happy to take on that contract (it represents a good length risk for them to take) and could restock the Tigers pen with a few arms.
Posted by: 92-93 | September 19, 2008 at 09:41 AM
I think Mags is a Tiger for life. I'd rather trade Guillen if we really needed to save some $$. Then we could move Inge back to 3rd or Cabrera back to 3rd with Thames/Sheffield at 1st.
Either way, I'd like to see Santiago get more time at SS. That guy's defense is sick.
Posted by: earthytones316 | September 19, 2008 at 03:56 PM
Are you kidding me? No ready replacement for Thames? I guess you haven't seen the bevy of OF's the Tigers have in the minors. Sure they won't hit 25+ dingers right away but he isn't the greatest OF and doesn't hit for average. He is very replaceable and can bring in a reliever.
DETbaseball, I mostly agree with you except with picking up Edgar's option. I'd rather have Cal Ripken right now at SS than Edgar. Anything is better. Ship him back to the NL and give Santiago a shot at short. I mean really, $3 mil to stay to slightly improve the team or $10 mil to make it worse? Not a hard call to make.
I wonder why it is that Sheffield only now is raking. For an old guy to do that at the end of the season is weird. If it's because he's finally healthy, then give him another year unless somebody will take him in a trade. And I do think that Robertson can be dealt, just not for much.
I hope Maggs is a Tiger for life and I do like the idea of trading Guillen instead as a salary dump. It'd be scary to have Dusty Ryan catching but I think Inge is best at 3rd.
Detroit is not as bad off as everyone is making them out to be. Unless Rodney remains the closer. Then DET might as well take the year off.
Posted by: Calriver | September 20, 2008 at 09:41 PM
That was $3 Mil to leave Edgar, not stay. My mistake.
Posted by: Calriver | September 20, 2008 at 09:42 PM
Granderson is NOT a 3 hitter. I love him as a leadoff hitter. He is working on making more contact, and he is also a legit CF.
Posted by: Calriver | September 20, 2008 at 09:46 PM