Latest On A.J. Burnett

Here's a perfect example of how small market teams who overpay set the precedent for the bigger name FA's the Yanks go after:

From the above post:

There's talk that Ryan Dempster's four-year, $52MM deal will raise the stakes for Burnett, but he figured to soar well beyond $13MM per year regardless. The Dempster and Kyle Lohse deals could give Burnett's agent justification in asking for five years though.

I hope Theo is just in this to increase the price Cashman has to pay for Burnett. He is Pavano 2.0. We need to replace Manny's bat and go hard after Tiexeira. With the Yankees going after pitching, it's the perfect time to go after Tex.

"AROD's first monster contract with Texas and SF's contract for Zito are what started all this."

And an argument could be made that the contracts that lead up to that forced small market teams to gamble more on the big ticket FA. Mind you both contract above were not only in hindsight stupid but were also in foresight stupid. But I digress. My point, stop arguing the chicken and the egg because the only fact that there really is is this: large market teams typically do better. Though another point is related which a lot of small market teams fail to argue: a good run team can create a good window of opportunity and as always a free market competitive system tends to trend towards equilibrium based on goals (Anyone actually believe all teams goals are to win the world series?). As for you yankee fans... stop with the preemptive defense.

I can't understand for the life of me why Burnett merits such a big contract and outrageous salary. He is one of the most overrated pitchers I've ever seen. I sincerely hope my Red Sox don't get him. Please, for the love of God, let him sign with the Yanks or another team.

I didnt know Chicago and St Louis were small market teams.

chicubs25, you should take every questionable comment with a grain of salt. Although, these comments are much more tolerable than espn.com's. wow, that is a train wreck. but the more popular this site becomes, the more stupid comments....

Mike Hampton. There's a million bad contracts. Compared to the Hampton/Brown/Zito deals, the Pavano deal looks like a steal.

to the guy with the "s.t.A.y J.a.y" sign, what's the relevance of all the periods after the letters???

Regardless of Burnett's inability to throw 170 innings in 2 of the last 3 years, I'd feel alot better with

CC, Burnett, Wang, Joba, Pettitte/Hughes

than

40+ year old Johnson, Pavano, Wright, Moose, Whoever

That's not even close.

I would like to see the Red Sox make an offer to Burnett for more annual money over 3 years, maybe $17M, and a big option, maybe $21M, with a significant buyout ($2Mish). This way, at best, you have him playing for contracts for 2 out of 4 years, or you can cut ties after 3 years.

I just want to say that if the yankees sign C.C. Sabathia it will be the greatest thing that could happen for the Sox. I am hearing rumors about ridiculous contracts the yanks are offering C.C and Burnett, and I just sit back and laugh. The best choice for the Sox would probably be Sheets. He would come at a much cheaper cost therefore a much lower risk. And that is if the Sox even decide to sign someone. I have been a Sox fan all my life and it cracks me up every year when I read messages from other Sox fans. Every year the "sky is falling" yet every year it never does. In case anyone forgot the Sox made it to game 7 of the ALCS in a year that they traded Manny, saw an off year from Beckett, and lost Ortiz, Lowell, Drew and many many others for different periods of time to injury. Let the Yankees go sign Sabathia, Burnett, Texiera and whoever else they want I still like the Sox's chance. The Yankees have a lot of rebuilding to do and are in they situation they are in because of signing huge contracts to a bunch of guys that eventually got old and couldn't perform anymore. The Sox will see a year where Beckett's numbers will return, Dice-K, and Lester will continue there success, Wakefield will be the same Wakefield we know and love and they will find their number five, whether through trade, free agency, or the most likely, Bowden/Masterson/Bucholz/Hagadone.
Let me close with this Burnett and Sheets are injury prone. I trust Theo and can anyone tell me the name of a 300lb pitcher who was successful enough for ten years to justify being the highest paid pitcher in baseball? I would say the closest I could think of would be Bartolo Colon and look at how many teams are breaking down his door to sign him now that he is a free agent again.

I think the Sox should think about bringing back Lowe. We already know he can pitch in Boston he would come much cheaper then Burnett or Sheets, and we really don't need another big name pitcher. He would be nice to have for insurance without breaking the bank and it would open up the money for another bat. Everyone is talking about a catcher. There is so much young talent here for pitching I think you have to bring back Tek to bring them along and teach them. But at the same time what is the future, obviously not Tek. If the Sox could pull off a trade with Texas and split time between Tek and Teagarden/Salty/Ramirez that would be the best case scenario but the price is looking a little steep. So maybe the best scenario is Tek/Cash again. But either way I think a bat is in order. Obviously Texeira would solve everything but for how much? anyone else have any ideas? I think Tex is the only option at this point so that should be the number one priority. imagine this lineup:

Ellsbury CF
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Texiera 1B
Youkilis 3B
Drew RF
Bay LF
Lowrie SS
Tek/Cash C

That definetly works for me.

so is this where Yankee therapy will be today? This is so comical. Yankees fans have to justify to themselves why they overpay and bid against themselves. And blaming Zito and Arod's contracts are comical at best. Zito's contract (while dumb) was necessary to keep SF fans interested with Bonds departing. Was it dumb, yes, but who else was out there at the time that had the draw that Zito had, especially in the Bay area. And as for A-ROD he is a draw just by the circus he provides (add in the fact that Tom Hicks is stupid and you have his original deal).

The sick fact is that the Yankees are bidding against NO ONE for CC. No one is coming close to that figure. THey could get him for 6 years and $110 million but for some reason they've gotta totally set the market. As always with them IF/WHEN they don't make or win the World Series we'll all say their season was another failure. They'd better get some offense too around AROD because with Abreu, Matsui, Damon, Posada, Jeter etc they're getting old very very fast plus they have very little in the minors ready to come up and be an impact bat so future years will be spent on FA hitting that'll be overpaid for too.

"Let me close with this Burnett and Sheets are injury prone. I trust Theo and can anyone tell me the name of a 300lb pitcher who was successful enough for ten years to justify being the highest paid pitcher in baseball?"

I dont know how much he weighed but he wasnt exactly small....Gaylord Perry.

"Here's a perfect example of how small market teams who overpay set the precedent for the bigger name FA's the Yanks go after:"

Yes, clearly the Yankees only offered Sabathia nearly DOUBLE Dempster's contract a week prior because Steinbrenner is clairvoyant. (And neither Chicago nor St. Louis is small market.)

Phils..I get everything you are saying, and even tho I disagree with a lot of it, I enjoy reading your thoughts (more so than a lot of the others here). Here is an article that might interest you, talking about why the offer made sense for the Yanks.
http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/2008/11/yankees_first_offer_to_sabathi.html

If I were a fan of a small market team, I am sure Id feel the same way you and many others do. Id hate to "fall in love" with players knowing they were a few years away from leaving because my team couldnt afford to keep them. However the blame is in the wrong place! Blame MLB, blame the MLBPA (one of the strongest unions in the contry) and blame the owners, not just the Yankee owners but any owner who thinking that players are worth millions when we pay our teachers, our cops, our firemen and our soldiers peanuts.
The Yankees are doing what they are allowed to do..right or wrong. MLB ALLOWS them to do this. Now, you seem like a smart guy..if you are running the Yankees and your 2 objectives are to win and to make money..why wouldn't you do what the Yanks are doing?
It is not the job of the owner of the Yankees or any other team to uphold the integrity and fairness of the game. Their job is to make money and put the best team on the field that they can (hopefully all owners try to do this).
I am not against a salary cap as long as there is a floor to go with it. Make some of the small market teams spend their revenue sharing rather than pocketing it. However until MLB and Selig get serious about it and until they get some sort of leverage with the union..and it may end up necessitating a lockout or a strike, the Yanks are following the rules put in place specifically for THEM. They are paying their taxes and the other teams are getting their money every time the Yanks give a big contract.

09 (tentative)

Yanks
1. J. Peavy
2. C. Sabathia
3. A. Burnett
4. J. Chamberlain
5. C. Wang

Red Sox
1. J. Lester
2. J. Becket
3. D. Matsuzaka
4. D. Willis
5. T. Wakefield

Rays
1. D. Price
2. S. Kazmir
3. J. Shields
4. M. Garza
5. A. Sonnanstine

ALE looks to be crazy in 09

z

yankeegirl,

Yes I've seen that article and others like it and heard on the radio similar reports, but the one thing I haven't heard is from either Boras or CC that he doesn't want to play on the East Coast. That's all conjecture. Heck he played in Cleveland for how many years?

And while I agree there is enough blame to go around it does belong at least somewhat with the large market teams too. I don't agree with a cap and floor, but rather revenue sharing that is TRUE revenue sharing. I can only imagine the billions that the Yankees make from YES and all their other parts that is not a part of what gets shared with all the clubs. There's no real way to resolve this because baseball is individual market driven with their TV deals and the Yankees will never (and i'm not sure they should) share their YES revenues with all of MLB. Maybe the answer is to not make them share of all their revenue streams but to increase the percentage that they should share from their current ones, but again this is going down a bad path with the disparity of the haves and have nots becoming even greater. What's the landscape going to be 10-15 years from now. IF there's still a team in Tampa the Yanks will have a $400 million payroll compared to a $70 million payroll for the Rays? Its like North Carolina men's basketball playing the "little sisters of the Poor". Its fun to watch at the beginning but it becomes less fun when we all know the outcome. At some point I would think it becomes boring for the Yankees as they're playing against AAA teams, no?

Just thought I'd point out a few incorrect statements that were made earlier...

Daisuke did throw a lot of innings per start in Japan, but it was as part of a 6 man rotation, not a 4 man rotation. They've decided to go the other direction over there, with higher pitch counts and an extra throwing session between starts to go along with an extra days rest.

As for the Kevin Brown signing, while he was injured a good deal of the time, he was nowhere near as bad of a deal as some (nrmax) have made him out to be. During that contract, Brown pitched 3 full seasons, posting a 169 ERA+ in both 2000 and 2003 pitching 230 and 211 innings respectively. In 1999, he posted a 143 in over 250 IP. He pitched over 1000 innings over 7 seasons (over 150 per) with an ERA of 3.26. Pavano couldn't even muster 150 total IP for the Yankees, and was terrible (5.00 ERA) when he was able to pitch. If I'm the Yankees or Dodgers (large-market teams) I take Brown's contract over Pavano's any day.

"RSD...for once I agree with you."

You're hurting my brain. As for the CC issue, I think it comes down to simply will he keep his weight constant after he gets that fat contract. While it's possible he's been overused that will be less of an issue with the yankees with Mariano coming in in the 9th. He does have a build and attitude to suggest long run power pitcher. The real issue comes down to the history of long term pitcher contracts... they don't have a history of working out.

"sox fans dont complain about the yankees overspending"

Who's complaining besides rsd? They can spend all they want... it's not like it's done much since 2000. One thing a lot of people forget about baseball is there's a lot of possibilities that can happen. There's a reason for a 6 month season and the Second Season.

"4. D. Willis"

Why exactly do you keep on insisting Willis will return to his early years form. Willis is a flash in the pan. Fade out, roll credits. If Willis goes to the Sox he'll either be coerced to work out his issues in Pawtucket or be put in the pen as mop up guy. If the Sox don't sign Burnett or Lowe or Byrd or Kawakasi-whatever I'd much rather see some combination of Buchholz/Masterson/Bowden pitching every 5th day. At least they'll start to get their footing.

" I know their farm sux but thats not small market teams faults. "

Posted by: RED SOX DYNASTY! | November 19, 2008 at 06:20 AM

Talking about dumb comments you are well aware that the Yanks have the 5th best farm system according to Baseball America, by no means would I say that suck. Next time why don't you do a little research so you don't sound like such an idiot.

Airman...well said.
However, the prices they charge to average folks (not corporate box types) are in line with other entertainment options available to us. Fact is, its NYC...EVERYTHING is expensive!! I bought multiple ticket packages last season, yes they were upper deck seats (where I dont mind sitting) but per ticket it was less that I pay to go to a Broadway show, less than I pay to go to a rock concert at MSG, less than it would cost to go to a Knicks, Rangers, Jets or Giants game.
The food prices are high, but again, no higher that at any other venue in and around NYC..AND, unlike other venues, YS allows people to bring in their own food if they choose to do.
They also have about 20 games where they offer upper deck seats for 5 bucks. They sell out quickly, but they are obtainable for the average fan. Their box seats and luxury boxes are VERY VERY expensive, but a family can still go to a game for a reasonable amount of money. Contrary to popular belief outside of NY, the yanks are not raping their fans as much as people are led to believe.

yankeegirl,

my bad. I guess I assumed all big FA's are represented by Boras (who is as much to blame for all of this as the other culprits).

I agree that all fans should support their teams better. It was kind of disgusting to see all those cowbells going off during the WS where half the fans probably couldn't have named half of the roster at the beginning of the season, but i guess that's where it starts. Remember they're only 10+ years old and the Yanks/Phils/Red Sox and others that have strong fan bases are 100+ years old. I would hope to see that continue to grow. That's the point I made to the Rockies bandwagoners from last year and this year they proved their bandwagon status by not showing up for games in the season after their team appeared in a World Series. Hopefully Rays tickets are in more demand this year and they can build a stable franchise and not be the "feeder team" for the Yanks/Red Sox/Mets.

If i did put myself in your shoes and had become used to going to the playoffs and didn't for a year or two then I guess I'd become to appreicate it more. I'd like to learn how that would be but normally we're in one year and not back for about 15.

I agree that contraction would be beneficial but difficult for about 5-6 teams but it still wouldn't fix the imbalance that we have.

Also there's no other places that realistically teams that can't be supported can move to. Any suggestions? Las Vegas will never get a sports team before you go there.

Yanks are sure loaded with quality arms in the minors though. Girardi is the perfect manager for this team. He knows how to work a bullpen and is not afraid to mix in the young kids if they warrant a shot in the show. If he gets a good starting rotation, look out.

never been there. I don't think Portland would get one becuase they don't have the demographics necessary to truly support a team with a large enough fan base. That would just be going from one bad situation to a worse one. And even if they did that's one for about a half dozen franchises that aren't a fit economically for their market. And in this economy no one is going to fund a stadium with taxpayer money and keep their political jobs for long, but i digress.

There are only two answers (a salary ceiling and floor or TRUE revenue sharing) or contraction.

I think the positives outweigh the negatives on Burnett....over 9 K/9 last two years in the AL East? 235 BAA, 3.81 ERA career?

It's all about the health gamble with him, but how many FA pitchers are out there each year with no-hit stuff every night?

And unlike Sheets, he's healthy right now

Can someone explain to me why Sabathia for 7-140 is a better investment than Burnett for 4-60? If you could assume no injuries for each, Burnett is probably a better investment, right?

So how do you quantify future injury risk in each case? Is CC's prior durability track record THAT much more valuable?

REDSOXDYNASTY WROTE:

Its amazing to see how stupid some yankees fans are! They start off this post by blaming small market teams for their teams gross overspending. WTF! yeah every team has one or two contracts they would love to have back but the stupid yankees overspend for half their team. , A-Rod 30 mil, jeter 18 mil, giambi 18 mil, pettitte 16 mil, abreu 16 mil, mariano 15 mil, damon 13 mil, matsui 13 mil, and others like clemens for 28 mil. and johnson for 16 mil. just are ridiculous. All these guys are overpaid by 25-50 % with contracts that would cripple other teams. I know their farm sux but thats not small market teams faults. Yankee fans are obnoxious in all their posts but defending their ridiculous spending is a new low even for their standards!
________________________

RSD are you living in a bubble? To you get your information piped into you? I'm not blaming anyone for anything that the Yanks are doing. We sign who we want and are more than happy to pay what we need to pay. However, if you don't think that players, agent and mlb gm's and owners are looking around at what other teams are signing their players/free agents for in terms of dollars and years then not only are you not using your head (and despite being RSD I always thought your posts were some what thought out yet jaded) but you are also blind to the facts. I bet you Scott Boras can quote you the salaries and terms of his NON-clients that he can his own.

When the Giants signed Zito to 7 yrs/125 that ABSOLUTELY set the tone for Santana. When the Mets set the tone for Santana that ABSOLUTELY set the tone for CC. When the Cubs signed Dempster who's only had one good year, you don't think that made the mouths of Lowe and Burnett water? C'mon. I don't blame anyone for anything the Yanks do. Stop blaming THEM for the way things are. As I stated, the Mike Mussina's 6 yr/88 mil deal was the last long term contract we issued to a pitcher and even then his contract was no where the most expensive (see Mike Hampton and Kevin Brown).

And yes, compared to New York, St. Louis and CHicago are "smaller" markets. There's no disparagement intended in that statement. Doesn't mean they can't stomp with the big dawgs. Also, I always believe in showing facts rather than spewing non-sense.

Cubs $$$$ committed to SP:

Zambrano - 5 yrs/91 mil- $16 mil per
Dempster - 4 yrs/52 mil- $13 mil per
Marquis- 4 yes/21 mil- $7 mil per
Lilly - 4 years/40 mil- $10 mil per

4 pitchers-$204 mil/$46 mil per

Yanks potential $$$$ SP in 09:

CC - 6 yrs/140 - $23 mil per
Burnett/Perez- 5 yrs/80 - $16 mil per
Wang- 2008 salary (lost arb case) $4 mil 2009 probably the same
Joba- $400,000
Pettite/Mussina - worst case scenario 1 yr/$16 mil
Hughes- $400,000

6 pitchers: $248 mil/$60 mil

And that $248/$60 mil is ASSUMING that the Yanks would still want to bring either Mussina/Pettite back for 1 year which is, IMO, doubtful. it also reflect 2 extra pitchers over the Cubs 4. Stop acting as if the Yanks created the monster and look at the big picture.

You don't see the arm race in the NL but as of today the two biggest contracts for pitchers are from the Giants and the Mets? Also, the historically bad prcedent setting contracts of Mike Hampton (Rockies), Kevin Brown (Dodgers)and Darren Dreifort (Rockies)...hmmm ALL NL teams.

What is your idea of "fiscally responsible"? Are the Yanks filling for bankruptcy? Your so silly. Haha. The Yanks sign players and live with the positives or negatives. In addition we pay a huge luxury tax when we go over the line. It's the smaller market teams who sign mediocre players to overpriced contracts and then try to do salary dumps or are so burdned with the contract that they can't make any moves.

PEOPLE STOP THE NON-SENSE.

The Yanks were the 1st to dive into FA whit signings of guys like Reggie Jackson, Dave Winfield and Ricky Henderson. ALL HOF PLAYERS. When will you accept the fact that it's the bad signings that have messed things up?

If the Met's need a guy like Santana dhould they not pay him what market demands? Santana is not going to accept less than Zito, why should he? If the Yanks need an ace and they want CC should they not sign CC if they can afford him? CC is looking at what Santana made.

Do you think that the next great player that comes from Japan won't demand a) the $50 mil posting that the Sucks payed? b) the 5 yr/50 mil that they paid to Daiske? C'mon people. The Yanks may have opened the door to FA but we didn't create the current atmosphere. We didn't sign Arod to 10 yrs/250 mil. And most people seem to forget that when we traded for him that the Rangers were on the hook for $60 mil.

AJ Burnett to Yankees 5 yrs 80 mil

yanksfansince78...

no matter how much you write or how much you try to justify your points, it's just so hard to take anything you write serious when you refer to the red sox as the red sucks.

I really hope the yankees dont offer Burnett 5 years. I think it will be a big mistake and would be the opposite way we need to go as a franchise.

What does everyone think about MLB getting a mininum salary cap?

"The Dempster and Kyle Lohse deals could give Burnett's agent justification in asking for five years though."

What? How do two FOUR year contracts, given to hurlers without a history of injuries, provide any justification for giving a pitcher who has exceeded 29 starts just twice in a ten year career, and has spent substantial periods on the DL in two of the last three years? Seriously now!

Burnett is Carl Pavano all over again. An injury prone pitcher who posts an 18 win season just in time to cash in, and then we all know what happens after that.

I got a question for you yankee haters.

1.What would you say if the yankees did not have the highest payroll but the red soxs or the mets did. Say this year the yankees signd Mark T. and CC. Are payroll would be around 175. I know its still the highest but its going down.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population

I'm sure it comes to no surprise that the yanks have the most fans and the most tickets sold.
You could argue that there are fans outside the cities, or that we have 2 teams in our city, but our population divided by 2 still is higher(and I'm sure the fan ratio favors the Yanks more).
Another, re-occurring debate (not that it was mentioned, don't ask me why I'm bring it up... I get the feeling though that some believe this-) the concept of "buying a World Series". I absolutely disagree, you can buy your way into the playoffs, but not the World Series.

gotta love boras...

Valentine: I think a better idea of population would be Metro area, not city population. Its Boston for exmaple has 600,000 people, but Boston Metro has 4.4 million. Thats why they are a large market, not cause of the city of Boston: On the other hand San Diego has a city population of 1.2 million but a metro population of merely 2.9 million.

A city is not really a good idea of a local area, sometimes they are huge, other times small. Again comparing Boston to San Diego. Boston is roughly 48.4 sq miles, compared to San Diego's 324.3 sq miles. And the same can be said for Metro areas. So with that, i would believe metro area population destiny is the best measure of a fan base area, which your point still proves right, New York is the king of large markets.

You still didn't address my question Steve0: Right now you have a player like Pujols who's making less than market value (7 yrs/100). If he continues as a MVP type player over the next 3 or 4 seasons then chances are if he allows himself to become a free agent then he could probably command a contract that surpasses whatever deal that Texiera, Arod, Ramirez, etc might sign/exist between this year and 2010. So if a salary cap were instituted would that not severely limits the teams that can sign him?

Teams like the Rays are complaining that they can barely compete with a $50 mil payroll. If a salary cap is instituted I'm sure the players union will also want a minimum salary cap as well. So let's say that the cap is $160 mil and the minimum is $80 mil. If the Rays are already bitching about their need to maintain a $50 mil payroll then how will they be able to pay the minimum payroll of $80 mil? The Yanks are already paying an enormous luxury tax each year (2008 est $30 mil). How much more should the Yanks have to pay to help smaller market teams?

Team Total payroll Average salary
Yankees $209,081,579 $6,744,567
Tigers $138,685,197 $4,622,840
Mets $138,293,378 $4,609,779
Red Sox $133,440,037 $4,765,716
White Sox $121,152,667 $4,487,136
Angels $119,216,333 $4,110,908
Cubs $118,595,833 $4,392,438
Dodgers $118,536,038 $4,233,430
Mariners $117,993,982 $4,538,230
Braves $102,424,018 $3,414,134
Cardinals $100,624,450 $3,049,226
Blue Jays $98,641,957 $3,522,927
Phillies $98,269,881 $3,388,617
Astros $88,930,415 $3,293,719
Brewers $81,004,167 $2,793,247
Indians $78,970,067 $3,037,310
Giants $76,904,500 $2,651,879
Reds $74,277,695 $2,971,108
Padres $73,677,617 $2,376,697
Rockies $68,655,500 $2,640,596
Rangers $68,239,551 $2,353,088
Orioles $67,196,248 $2,099,883
Diamondbacks $66,202,713 $2,364,383
Twins $62,182,767 $2,487,311
Royals $58,245,500 $2,240,212
Nationals $54,961,000 $1,895,207
Pirates $49,365,283 $1,898,665
Athletics $47,967,126 $1,713,112
Rays $43,820,598 $1,460,687
Marlins $21,836,500 $661,712

Contracts like Arod would probably be "grand fathered" in to any sal cap agreement. The Yanks could easily slipde under a $160 sal cap if they had to as w/o signing anyone as of yet our players currently under contract add up to about 130 mil now and we lose another $25-$30 mil off next year. The big questions is will the bottom eight teams ($66 mil and below) be willing to increase their payrolls by 30% or more to match the $80 mil minimum. Will a team like the Marlins who had a $22 mil payroll last year increase it by almost 400%? If so would they be financialy viable and able to exist? If not why should the Yankees be further penalized and have to subsidize an opponent's team further?