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By Tim Dierkes [November 5, 2008 at 11:58am CST]
Let's round up the Phillies links. By the way, I am hoping to get to their Offseason Outlook on Friday.
- The first issue is Pat Burrell, to whom the Phillies will probably make a two-year offer (according to Buster Olney). It is true that Burrell added a Philly-based agent (Ed Hayes), but he's also keeping Greg Genske. The confusion with agents is one reason negotiations haven't begun with the Phils. Burrell would love to return. If he doesn't re-sign, the Giants may be interested. Keep in mind that Burrell does not want to DH.
- If Burrell leaves, the Phillies hope to add a righthanded hitter to replace him. Magglio Ordonez, Matt Holliday, and Manny Ramirez are considered long shots. Milton Bradley would be interesting, if the Phillies believe he can play the field every day. It'd also make sense for the Phillies to inquire on Ryan Ludwick, Jermaine Dye, Josh Willingham, Casey Blake, and Mark DeRosa.
- The Phillies have had one brief conversation with Jamie Moyer's agent. Moyer wants a multiyear deal, but Olney does not believe the Phils are inclined to do that.
- Scott Eyre would take a one-year contract to stay, and the Phillies hope to re-sign him before November 14th.
- Olney says the Phillies are expected to explore talks with Ryan Howard's agent regarding a long-term deal.
- Don't forget starting pitching; Scott Lauber figures they'll be in the market.
- Outfielder So Taguchi was released today.
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Good luck getting DeRosa away from the Cubbies. He's been the heart and soul for the Cubs the last 2 years. You better be willing to part with Victorino then!
Posted by: CoachSwaf | November 05, 2008 at 12:19 PM
Philly fans,
Would a Tim Wakefield-like deal be an ideal scenario for Jamie Moyer? He has pretty solid numbers and seems like a decent bet for next year.....
any thoughts?
Posted by: turnthe2 | November 05, 2008 at 12:26 PM
You're going to need some serious backups if you plan on using Werth and Bradley in the corners every day. I love both of those guys, but they don't have the cleanest bills of health.
I was thinking a similar thing for Moyer, but he's different in that he's more concerned with having a secure deal. Perhaps a front-loaded deal would work for him? Something like 3 years, 18m that breaks down to 7-6-5 over the three years so the team doesn't eat so much if he falls off of a cliff. What it would mean for him to fall off of a cliff is unclear to me, since he already throws 80 mph fastballs. Health problems, I suppose.
Posted by: andrewberg7 | November 05, 2008 at 12:29 PM
It figures the Cubs would try to trade DeRosa. Wasn't he one of the only guys who actually hit in the playoffs?
And if I were the Phillies, I'd be concerned about clubhouse chemistry, especially after winning the WS, before adding a guy like Milton Bradley, tho he can hit for sure.
Posted by: rememberthecoop | November 05, 2008 at 12:30 PM
i am so happy that so taguchi is gone. he should wear a mask because he robbed the phillies.
Posted by: derman1984 | November 05, 2008 at 12:34 PM
"It figures the Cubs would try to trade DeRosa. Wasn't he one of the only guys who actually hit in the playoffs?"
Who said they are trying to trade DeRosa? Read the post again. He brings back two draft picks after next year...so I don't see him going anywhere.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 05, 2008 at 12:45 PM
Coming off of last season, it seems like Jamie Moyer will still be able to pitch next year. However, I don't think you want to extrapolate from that beyond next year. It's got to be a 2 year deal tops for him, with the realization that you might wind up eating that second year and getting little in return.
Scott Eyre will be back, he was spectacular for the Phillies.
Pat Burrell should be a DH and he's going to have to make the switch. It's either going to take 1. a lot of money from some AL team now or 2. a few weak seasons with a non-contender as an everyday left fielder slowly losing playing time to make him realize this. I see the latter happening given his commitments to playing the field and the Phillies (wise) unwillingness to give him more than 2 years.
Posted by: mford | November 05, 2008 at 01:05 PM
Let me start by saying that Pat Burrell is my favorite player (yes I know, strange).
As a Phillies fan, I want him back in town.
I have been thinking about it, and the team that fits him best.....is the Phillies. I know that they do not want to go long term with him, but perhaps he will eventually accept a 2 year deal with a 3rd year mutual option. That way he will stay in Philly until he is 34-35, then he can finish up his career as a DH in the AL.
Perhaps he can even get another ring if he stays.
Posted by: 7thinningstretch | November 05, 2008 at 02:33 PM
I can totally see Burrell coming to the Giants, but not to play LF. He'd be a 1st baseman in SF. He is exactly what the Giants need: a big RH bat that knows how to get on base. Of course, he'd wouldn't propel to the playoffs, but he certainly would help a woefully inept offense.
Posted by: nostocksjustbonds | November 05, 2008 at 03:05 PM
The only way I could see DeRosa going is if the Cubs got a great deal. You can have Kouske!
Posted by: baseball52 | November 05, 2008 at 03:15 PM
Who signs two year deals these days? Either you stink and have to sign a one year deal, or you have some value and can command a contract of at least three years.
About the only guy I can think of who inked a two year deal in recent memory is Andruw Jones, who clearly only deserved a one year deal and hoodwinked the Dodgers into two.
Posted by: Devlsh | November 05, 2008 at 03:46 PM
Who ever wrote this article didn't mention it, so I will. What did the last NL World Champs do? The Cardinals haven't won made the postseason since winning the WS. They were under .500 the year after. They were in the postseason six out of seven years upon winning the WS. They won 5 division titles. Did they burn out? Did they get less hungry? I can understand with the '97 Marlins aftermath, but the Marlins really didn't sell off most of their team until later on. Where did the last three teams who appear in the World Series from the NL end up? All didn't make the postseason the next year. 2 of 3 were under .500. 5 out of the previous 7 World Champs from the NL didn't make the postseason the next season. And 3 of 5 of those teams didn't finish .500 the next season.
I don't know why some people have this mentality of think everyone should assume who's at top remains there. Probability tells otherwise. Has there base an NL team who's won a division title who's won more than one world series since 1983? No. The only team to do it were the Marlins. Ironically this is the Phillies were in the WS that year. The Phillies payroll eventually went up to 103 million last season. As mentioned it's projected that without Moyer & Eyre, the Phillies payroll is 115 payroll. Moyer will get some sort of raise. Say seven million? And Eyre will get at least 2 or 3. So we're talking about 124 or 125 million. Every Phillies fan could tell you the Phillies owner is cheap. The only pricey guy I can think of that they signed was Jim Thome who they traded later on. They probably planned that considering they drafted Howard. What wasn't mentioned here was Gillick is no longer their GM. He retired. This will be big. Ruben Amaro Jr. will do everything to please ownership. I'm sure they aren't very happy about rising the payroll at least 20 million. Why do they keep stalling on Howard? It doesn't make any sense if they plan on retaining him. His annual rate will only get higher due to inflation. Why not sign him long term? He'll get 15-18 million arbitration this off-season.
Is Brett Myers a dependable 2 starter for 162 games? Probably not. Is the 46 year old Moyer still reliable? Brad Lidge has had arm problems. Remember Carpenter with the Cards? Injuries do come around. They probably won't replace Burrell's production. The best they'll do is part time playing Rocco Baldelli. More realistically, Emil Brown or Jay Payton. That 2 year/22 million offer they made to Burrell was flirting. They know they aren't getting him back unless he concedes or can't get anything else out on the market. Some AL team will see value in him though so that's unlikely to happen. During most of Burrell's contract, they begged other teams to take him. They managed to pawn off Abreu. They don't want to be in that boat with PAt the Bat for 3 or 4 years. Plus the Dodgers, Mets and other NL teams who may need a LF too. Burrell's averaged nearly 30HR/100RBI the last 4 years. Without him, can their offense really keep up? Could you imagine how much of a mess it'd be with a platoon of Jenkins, Stairs and Bruntlett? I know what has already happened. I don't want to ruin the suprise for all of you. I will rub it even ungracious Phillies fan when there team is horrible again. The last time they were in the WS, they were under .500 the next 7 seasons. Than they averaged 86.5 wins the following 8 seasons after they traded Curt Shilling who was dominating in winning two World Series. They weren't willing to pay Schilling. You got to spend to win. Perhaps they would have been in the postseason or won another world series with him over Padilla? The Phillies got bad luck written all over them. They had their moment in the sun and it's already faded. Gillick gone? Burrell probably gone? Dark days are coming. That's their off-season outlook unless they change the luck of their city as a whole.
http://antiphillies.blogspot.com/
Posted by: nyj0127 | November 09, 2008 at 09:59 PM
The Marlins of '03 didn't sell off much of their team until later on... In fact, they tried winning again in '04 with the Lo Duca trade. Than again with Delgado the next season... They may be due to win one soon.
Posted by: nyj0127 | November 09, 2008 at 10:01 PM