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2008 Free Agent Bargains and Busts (Hitters)
Using Wins Above Replacement data from FanGraphs and contract info from Cot's Baseball Contracts, I have determined the biggest free agent bargains and busts of the 2008 season (position players only). I did my best to calculate what the player was paid in 2008, including bonuses and incentives. Hopefully I didn't miss anyone important; I used ESPN's Free Agent Tracker.
Top Ten Bargains
- Willie Harris: +$14.6MM (paid $800K, worth $15.4MM)
- Jody Gerut: +$13.715MM
- Mike Cameron: +12.55MM
- Jorge Cantu: +$10.7MM
- Jerry Hairston Jr.: +10.375MM
- Milton Bradley: +10.3MM
- Eric Hinske: +$8MM
- Aaron Miles: +$6.9MM
- Rod Barajas: +$6.2MM
- Cesar Izturis: +$5.25MM
Top Ten Busts
- Andruw Jones: -$15.7MM (worth -$1.6MM, paid $14.1MM)
- Jose Guillen: -$11.1MM
- Jorge Posada: -$9.7MM
- Mike Lamb: -$9.4MM
- Corey Patterson: -$8MM
- Aaron Rowand: -$7.2MM
- Brad Wilkerson: -$6.9MM
- Omar Vizquel: -$6.5MM
- Torii Hunter: -$5.7MM
- Paul Lo Duca: -$5.1MM
A few notes...
- Fair Value Award goes to Sean Casey, who signed for and was worth $800K.
- Doug Melvin and the Brewers came out almost $20MM ahead with their signings of Cameron, Russell Branyan, and Jason Kendall. The Cardinals, Astros, and Rangers also did well on position player free agents.
- Ned Colletti and the Dodgers were the worst at a loss over $16MM, mostly due to Jones. The Giants, Twins, and Yankees also did not fare well on position players.
- The Nationals made a modest $1.2MM profit, because Jim Bowden's Harris signing was negated by Lo Duca, Rob Mackowiak, Johnny Estrada, and Aaron Boone.
- Of the eight free agent hitters who cost $10MM or more in 2008, six did not earn their salary.
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Is it fair to assume that Fukudome was in the negative? Because he was a profound disappointment in the second half of the season
Posted by: OctoberFlurry | December 27, 2008 at 12:48 AM
I love it how the Cardinals always sign guys like Izturis and Miles, and still get blasted for not shelling out money for bigger names. (See topic on Cardinals Payroll Developments). The fact is, this team knows what it's doing and isn't getting pushed around with who it should and should not sign. I'll take the Cardinals and Pujols with their limited budget over a team who shells out money to every FA any day.
Posted by: mtzxc | December 27, 2008 at 12:49 AM
Fukudome came in at a -$3.5MM.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | December 27, 2008 at 12:50 AM
I couldn't resist doing some team-based stuff but it'll mean more once we incorporate free agent pitchers.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | December 27, 2008 at 12:51 AM
Luis Castillo?
Posted by: squid92 | December 27, 2008 at 12:51 AM
Alexei Ramirez?
Posted by: SSSox | December 27, 2008 at 12:52 AM
Tim, any idea when the pitchers will be done?
Posted by: mtzxc | December 27, 2008 at 12:53 AM
Hello??!!
Andruw Jones registers at $1.6 mil??!!
Is that how much a bag of peanuts goes for now??!!
Posted by: paxterj | December 27, 2008 at 12:54 AM
-$3.95MM for Castillo.
Alexei: error of omission. Will add and update the post.
Pitchers...no idea, up to FanGraphs.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | December 27, 2008 at 12:55 AM
Wait...he's worth NEGATIVE $1.6 mil??!!
My DOG is worth zero, right?
Posted by: paxterj | December 27, 2008 at 12:55 AM
Alexei came in at +$3.725MM.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | December 27, 2008 at 12:57 AM
Don't think so, because your dog cannot play at replacement level. Presumably a minor leaguer or something could.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | December 27, 2008 at 12:57 AM
my dog can freaking field and he won't put on 150 lbs.
Posted by: paxterj | December 27, 2008 at 12:59 AM
plus he bit my mother-in-law last year---that's worth Teixeira money
Posted by: paxterj | December 27, 2008 at 01:03 AM
LOL at paxterj.
Tim, just curious: Where does Manny rank when he played for LA? I know he wasn't a free agent, but he led them to the postseason while the Red Sox paid his salary.
Posted by: soxfan93 | December 27, 2008 at 01:07 AM
Boo to this system. Jose Guillen is a bigger bust than Jorge Posada? Give me a break, not even worth posting this list.
Posted by: 86 World Series Baby | December 27, 2008 at 01:15 AM
josh hamilton?
Posted by: paxterj | December 27, 2008 at 01:15 AM
I can tell you that Manny earned $20 mil and was worth $29.2 mil.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=210&position=OF
Just look at the Dollars column at the bottom of the page.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | December 27, 2008 at 01:16 AM
or is this possible for FA only?
Posted by: paxterj | December 27, 2008 at 01:17 AM
The Big Blob--Carlos Silva.
Posted by: nodiggity | December 27, 2008 at 01:18 AM
andruw jones should have to play to play baseball then huh? imagine if this became the economy of baseball? i believe fans would absolutely love it. damn players union.
Posted by: pvilly131 | December 27, 2008 at 01:19 AM
You can check it out for any position player. Just look him up on FanGraphs, go to the Dollars column at the bottom.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | December 27, 2008 at 01:23 AM
I love the FanGraphs site and found a lot of the data very useful, so thanks for sharing it Tim. However, you're taking it too literally if you honestly believe Willie Harris is worth $15.4MM. That's just rediculous.
Posted by: rememberthecoop | December 27, 2008 at 01:28 AM
Yes!!!
There r no Tigers on the list for negative!!
Then again
There r no Tigers on the list for postive either....
Posted by: pskip13 | December 27, 2008 at 01:34 AM
Certainly gets people talking, so it's a great idea.
It could also help tell you something about how well people play for a class organization with a fan base that treats its players with respect. Like the Cards.
Posted by: paxterj | December 27, 2008 at 01:43 AM
Don't forget Ryan Braun, paid $500k, worth $18.4.
Posted by: jlowrance | December 27, 2008 at 01:45 AM
Oops, I forgot we were talking about free agents of 2008. Sorry.
Posted by: jlowrance | December 27, 2008 at 01:46 AM
Tim,
Would you say Pena was one of the biggest FA bargains in recent memory? You said he was worth 24.6 million, so his + value is around 23.8 million. Thats almost double anyone on this list.
Posted by: delmonmvp | December 27, 2008 at 02:31 AM
Also, I know it would be cumbersome, but is there a way to see who's 2008 line up added up had the greatest +/- value? Im going to take a guess that the Yankees had the greatest - value as their line up was payed over 100 million. Maybe the Rays for greatest + with Pena, Longoria, Hinske, Upton, and Navarro all paid well below their worth. Then again, defeats the purpose of looking at free agents. Just worth a thought. btw, if this interests you, I could prob do it for you. let me know.
Posted by: delmonmvp | December 27, 2008 at 02:35 AM
Jorge Cantu signed with the Marlins for 500k.
11.3.
This puts him at +10.8
That would rank him third.
Posted by: Nny | December 27, 2008 at 03:13 AM
He played like he was worth 11.3*
Posted by: Nny | December 27, 2008 at 03:13 AM
Mike Cameron at +12.55 million??? So last yr he made $7.75 mill with incentives but he was worth $20.25 million? That is ridiculous!! Milwaukee is trying to dump his $10 million salary on the Yankees who won't even take it unless MIL pays some of it. We're talking about a 36-yr old .243 hitter who struck out 143 times in 120 games. The formula puts way too much stock in OPS.
Posted by: Fish25 | December 27, 2008 at 04:43 AM
Jason Variek?
Posted by: Cyyoung | December 27, 2008 at 06:23 AM
Sorry, just woke up.
Posted by: Cyyoung | December 27, 2008 at 06:25 AM
Milton Bradley
16.9 M vs. 5.3
11.6M for 3rd...
Posted by: laxtonto | December 27, 2008 at 07:22 AM
Pedroia was only paid 500k last year and according to the website he is worth $29.6 million and a replacement value of $24.2 million.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8370&position=2B
Posted by: Theo Epstein | December 27, 2008 at 07:52 AM
and mauer was a 25.7.. he only made 6 mill.. lol..
replacement value is 20 million. lol
Posted by: liondragon | December 27, 2008 at 08:09 AM
First off, guys he said Free Agent signings.
Jody Gerut: worth 14.5 made .7 a difference of 13.8.
Posted by: Thumper | December 27, 2008 at 08:35 AM
"Boo to this system. Jose Guillen is a bigger bust than Jorge Posada? Give me a break, not even worth posting this list."
How about a tie for all-chump/was not worth a dump?
Was weird that Sean Casey was rated as equal to his 800K salary, yet he hit .322 with a .381 OBP in his 1B backup/PH duties with Boston in 199AB and 218 PA, which seemed a excellent value, especially compared to most of the list that I saw.
Posted by: johns | December 27, 2008 at 09:01 AM
"The formula puts way too much stock in OPS."
You have no idea what you're talking about. The offensive stats are based on wRAA which is derived from wOBA and plate appearances. It also factors in defense, which is extremely underrated.
Posted by: Victor | December 27, 2008 at 09:24 AM
"However, you're taking it too literally if you honestly believe Willie Harris is worth $15.4MM."
Solid bat, excellent defense = good player. Though it's likely his defense will regress some and he may end up closer to a 2 win player, which would make him worth closer to $10M. In hindsight, the Braves should have just kept him in CF instead of getting Kotsay.
Posted by: Victor | December 27, 2008 at 09:27 AM
Saddest part for the Dodgers is their contract with Jones is structured with bonuses such that they still owe him $22.1 M for 2009.
A lot gets written about the worst FA signings ever and Pavano and Hampton are always included, but don't teams have insurance for when big contract players get injured? But, you sign a FA like Jones whose performance has just fallen off a cliff completely, and that money is just gone.
Posted by: dproc0219 | December 27, 2008 at 09:28 AM
Willie Harris??? Really! Hahaha.
Imagine if the Braves still had him and Wren say this post, he would prob think he would not need to address his OF issue.
Posted by: ChiefTomahawk | December 27, 2008 at 10:35 AM
Willie Harris: Making the Braves' acquisition of Mark Kotsay look even stupider.
Now people should shut up about how much he sucks. Please.
Willie Harris will almost undoubtedly regress with both the bat and the glove, but he'll make that 2 year extension the Nats signed him to look like an absolute steal. He should be worth 7-8MM per year for both years of his contract.
Posted by: melonis rex | December 27, 2008 at 10:50 AM
Jose Guilen is not a bust. He hit 99 RBI's for us which is amazing! So much better than Emil Brown leading us with 62 RBI's the year before. So what if the media picks on him to make dumb comments. At least he is a competitor and will even play hurt.
Posted by: KillerK | December 27, 2008 at 11:01 AM
Joey Gathright was more valuable to the Royals last year than Jose Guillen.
20% of payroll on that piece of garbage is the kind of move that should get a GM fired.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | December 27, 2008 at 11:22 AM
Jose Guillen had an OBP last season of .300, not a BA, but an OPS, his career is only .323. The guy walked *23* times last season in well over 600 PA's and is not a good corner OF'er at all, yet he is not a bust?
Posted by: johns | December 27, 2008 at 11:23 AM
I will add Cantu, that was an error of omission.
For Bradley I calculated in his incentives which is why his salary was more than 5.3.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | December 27, 2008 at 03:19 PM
Added Gerut as well, thanks!
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | December 27, 2008 at 03:26 PM
Willie Harris hit .251 with 13 homeruns.
.344 OBP, .417 SLG (.761OPS) -- He had 31 XBH
He plays great defense in left-field.
He IS worth more than 800k. He's not worth anything CLOSE to 15 million. Or 10. Or 8.
If I were a GM, I'd be hesitant to give him 5M. He probably shouldn't start for a team that hopes to win anything, nevermind lead off.
The fact that he's at the top of this list simply proves that FanGraphs has some flaws
Posted by: Josh Amaral | December 27, 2008 at 03:55 PM
This is worthless...It's almost as insightful as Phil Rogers's system that takes a net value of free agents added versus lost to determine free agent success.
Posted by: Art | December 27, 2008 at 07:37 PM
way to go cantu
Posted by: marlinsman1120 | December 27, 2008 at 09:21 PM
If I'm not mistaken, Gabe Kapler was a +$6.9 million bargain, which would put him in your Top 10, and make Doug Melvin's offseason even more successful than you gave him credit for (with Cameron, Branyan, and Kendall).
Posted by: BrewCity | December 27, 2008 at 11:06 PM