Talkin' Reds Baseball

Dye for Bailey and another prospect. Where have I heard this before?

Nope, if the Reds get Dye they will trade Arroyo and Gomes for him.

Here is how it will work.

Bailey will make a couple more (mediocre) starts and the Reds will hype him (yet AGAIN) as being ready. Then they will trade Arroyo (because his and Dye's salaries matchup) and Gomes (because the Reds will have a glut of Outfielders and Gomes and Dye both hit Right Handed).

Then, the Reds will find that Bailey is NOT ready (yet AGAIN) and will get lit up and wont be able to go very far in Games. This will TIRE the Bull Pen out.

So, whatever ground is gained in Offense it will be lost in Pitching. Plus, Bailey will lose even MORE trade value.

reds = 1 playoff series in 19/20 yrs

what better time to actually take a risk than now

they get 3 months of holliday, who goes to a launching pad in GABP and 2 draft picks, plus keeps him away from the cardinals. not a steep price when they havent barely been to the playoffs in 2 decades

Aubrey Huff is perfect. Not to terrible a salary, can play 3rd or a corner OF. Left handed bat. Could resign next year, name one power hitter who wouldn't want to play in the Great American Small Park.

Maybe they can trade Edinson Volquez for Josh Hamilton...

No, but seriously, I don't really think they have to make a move to prove they want to contend, but it wouldn't hurt them to do something, but not something huge like trade valuable prospects for Holliday. What's he doing right now that makes him better than Gomes or Dickerson? Sure, his track record is light years better, but right now, he's not producing enough to give away parts of the future for a half season.

Even if this isn't their year, this team could be getting stronger by the season, and their time will come. Maybe if they can work out a deal where they pick up a third baseman or utility guy they should pull the trigger, but not for any top prospects.

the reds could trade Arroyo and one or two good prospects for Alex Rios or Vernon Wells because the blue jays could use another starter and need to lose one of those players salaries so they can sign Roy Halladay again after next year

Dye for Bailey and another prospect. Where have I heard this before?

Posted by: 4appling | June 29, 2009 at 08:43 PM

I agree that Dye is still a perfect fit, but as much as I love KW, he would have to be crazy to think that he could even get Bailey for Dye straight up.

Since that trade was speculated, Dye is down to a half a season of use and has become severely overpaid. After the market left guys like Abreu making 5 MM, Burrell 8MM, and Dunn 10 MM, Dye's contract is no longer reasonable. To top that, arbitration is impossible because he would have no reason not to accept and take the 10MM plus that he would get...which he couldn't touch in free agency.

Without money changing hands it would have to be Dye for Maloney plus or something like that. If they eat most of the salary, they could potentially get a higher end prospect. All in all, Dye has very little trade value right now.

Rios has full no trade. but i would love to get him and teahen from kc

Aubrey huff sounds like a good idea. Carlos guillen could work.

In a perfect world the Reds target a SS or 3B. Their LF platoon has been playing at acceptable levels, though I don't know how long that will last. I would also worry about blocking a slot for Stubbs.

However if they could get someone like Delmon Young or Alexis Rios I would have to reconsider this. I believe a Young for Encarncion would work and a Arroyo/Taveras for Rios might. Arroyo/Dickerson would likely get it done, but I can dream of the Reds dumping the worst offensive player in the game.

For my targets I would look at the following.

Perfect world, but likely not going to happen.

1. Ryan Zimmerman. elite defensive 3B would also get a offensive boost from the GABP, but still solid offensively without it. The Reds have the pieces to do it, but its highly doubtful the Nats would part with their franchise player.

2. Stephen Drew. All around a average SS, nothing he does really jumps off the page at you, but for a team that needs a SS he's probably the best of attainable.

The more likely pile

Kouzmanoff or Hensley from San Diego. Either would be a better 3B then Encarncion

Teahen he's been called a DeRosa lite on this sight and I think that fits. His ability to play multiple positions is something that Jocketty likes as well with the current Reds. His contract though and versitilty could mean the Royals ask for more then market value for him.

Others just for the heck of it.

Some Reds fans have suggested Victor Martinez. His bat would play well in Cincinnati but I think it would take a hit because of every day catcher duty since they don't have a opening at 1B and don't have a DH.

Milledge or Dukes from the Nationals. I would take a flyer on Milledge and hope he makes good on his talent, cost would be a minimum so why not.

Finally you have players like Dye, Holliday and even Adam Dunn.

because of their cost the Reds likely won't get involved, especially if teams want premium prospects along with the Reds taking on the contract.

Matt Holiday is an illusion created by Coors Field. His career stats outside Coors look a lot like his 09 numbers: .279/.359/.452 Not bad, but not worth the $$ or the prospects. Easily the most over rated player in MLB right now.

Willingham actually makes a lot more sense. While Holiday has built a huge rep on Coors Field, Willingham has been killed by pitchers parks. He's way cheaper and likely more productive. Plus, the Reds could take a look at Guzman, who is overpaid but would be a huge improvement at SS, and may be available for the right prospect.

Morons....I cannot believe what I am reading from some people.

WE DONT NEED A BAT IN LEFT FIELD OR A 3B.....trade our top prospects and $7 million for 3 months of Matt Holliday?? Wow....that's like going "all in" pre-flop on an 8-man table with a pair of 2's.

#1. Gomes is batting .350....what the hell else do you want? He has been a hitter his ENTIRE baseball career, he will hit around .300 and hit 15-20 HR....we got him basically for free.

#2. Edwin is probably coming back THIS WEEK, he will play, quit whining.

What we NEED is a shortstop and a leadoff man/CF. Jerry Hairston is a great guy to have on your bench, but face it sisters, he is no starter. Unfortunately, ladies, I do not have the answer at SS. I really don't think there are any solid major league FEASIBLE options right now....I heard Lugo's name mentioned, but he's not the answer. Taveras just blows....would love to trade for Nyjer Morgan.

And for those of you who think Matt Holliday is the answer, research his stats and payroll VS. Gomes/Nix this year....you will be shocked.

Schellis had some intelligent comments...I would love to have Zimmerman and who knows, the Nats are so bad they may blow up their team and start over.

I am surprised no one has mentioned trading Hanigan or Hernandez? Their values (especially Hanigan's) are through the roof right now.

Anyways.... folks, lets be realistic here, this is not our year. THIS YEAR we LEARN how to WIN. NEXT YEAR we CONTEND.

In Votto we trust.

Edwin isn't a 3B. Anything that he does positive with the bat is negated by his glove, and well he's been all around horrible this year.

The Reds lead off man/CF is currently playing in AAA.

Stubbs is the best CF on the Reds 40 man, I don't want to see the Reds giving up anything of value just to block him.

The Reds need to find players that can help them now, but more importantly help them in 2010.

I don't think Hernandez's value is all that high he's actually playing worse then he did last year for the Orioles. Hanigan is a solid catcher that is dirt cheap that pitchers love pitching to. If you can move Hernandez by all means you do it, but I think you have to keep Hannigan.

ben or mlbtr staff, you're slackin. No rumors in a couple of hours

I agree with a previous post that the answer lies in Ryan Zimmerman. He might not be available as he is the face of the franchise, but I wouldn't mind overpaying for him. He is singed through 2013, is great with the glove, and would be a force somewhere between phillips, votto, bruce, and nix/gomes.

The deadline is still a month away, which gives Homer Bailey another month to prove if he can pitch above AAA. If he shows the splitter is effective, then I think you look at moving Volquez to acquire Zimmerman. I am sure I will get beat around for that comment, but Volquez to me is someone who will be more of a one year wonder. Great stuff sure, but to me unreliable.

Volquez/EE/Stubbs/and another pitcher would be something the Nats would have to think about.

Dickerson
Phillips
Votto
Zimmerman
Nix/Gomes
Bruce
Hernandez/Hanigan
Hairston/Janish

Michael Young for Arroyo...

Zimmerman and Willingham for Bruce, Alonso, Fraizer, and a AA/AAA pitching prospect (possibly Bailey).

I don't think they will trade him either. He is right up there with the best 3B in the game as well as the most popular guy on the team. He went to Virginia so he has somewhat of a hometown connection which makes him even more popular. I was just throwing out a trade that might make sense for starters.

"I'm sorry, but that has to be the dumbest thing I've ever heard on this site."

If you bothered to read what I said before, I know it would be overpaying for Zimmerman, but that's what it would take to get him. Have some common sense.

Indeed it would be way overpaying, he's a good talent, but not that good. Didn't mean to offend.

But back to Michael Young, if I recall, I remember Tim posting an article about Micheal Young wanting out of Texas before the season started b/c they were moving him to 3rd so Elvis Andrus could go to SS. I'm sure he's owed some good money, but if we could move Arroyo and some other prospects to get him that would be a great deal. He could play 3rd or SS.

Also, if we needed insurance in the rotation, the Pirates are desperately trying to trade Ian Snell b/c of bad relations with him. He just struck out 17 in a AAA game yesterday. He would be cheap insurance in the rotation if Bailey or someone else didn't perform.

Any thoughts?

"I am intrigued by the idea of trading for Michael Young if the Rangers were to fall out of conention. Them having Hamilton on the DL helps our chances to land Young."

WHAT? Young is due $80 million through 2013. EIGHTY . . . MILLION! This is real-life baseball with real-world financial issues, not a fantasy league.

Zimmerman and Willingham for Bruce, Alonso, Fraizer, and a AA/AAA pitching prospect (possibly Bailey).

Posted by: THEBIGFISH99 | June 29, 2009 at 10:57 PM

Ok Take Bruce off that list they don't need OF'ers, Also I have a feeling the Nats would want more Pitching then hitting prospects. Just my opinion.

As far as the Nationals and Reds matching up on a trade, I wouldn't be shocked at all, but what the heck are all you guys talking about with Ryan Zimmerman? He isn't going anywhere until 2012 if ever as far as the Nats are concerned.

However you guys need a shortstop and the Nationals are shopping Christian Guzman and they are also trying to unload Josh Willingham.

I'm not familiar enough with the Reds system to name any trade ideas but I know they want relievers, solid defensive players and young arms. It never hurts to have a surplus of pitching.

Please no Dye as a Reds fan I would hate that. Here is a list of players who I would be interested in that could be involved in a trade that could help out our team.

Juan Pierre
Clint Barmes
Nick Punto
Bobby Crosby
Aubrey Huff
Jeff Francoeur
David Murphy
Josh Fields

I would like to see us go after Mark Teahen, Jason Kubel, Delmon Young, Jeremy Hermedia.

But honestly I dont see many players that could fully help this team out.

Redman , Last time I checked most often a leadoff guy gets 5 AB's per game in most cases. Since Baker can't take him out of that spot without having a brain fart, then He will get two plate appearances. Heck I would be happy with 2 walks and or a walk and a hit in every other game from Tavarez. But well all know that is not going to happen either. At this point I would take a single walk or hit each game from him it would be better than what he has done so far.

Aubrey Huff would be a fine addition, but the O's don't have anyone ready to take over 1st. Maybe a 3 team trade where that looks like this:

Orioles get Chris Davis, B-level Reds pitching prospect, Todd Fraizer

Rangers get: Bronson Arroyo + cash

Reds get Aubrey Huff, Joaquin Arias

Is this fair? And if you think it's ridiculous please hold back the insults.

JayTheRed, you are aware that Taveras hasn't walked in TWENTY ONE straight games? I'm not a fan of bringing Stubbs up simply because I think that he'll hit no higher than 7 or 8 in the order. Unfortunately, we're stuck with Taveras. I'm with you in that I would take about a .340-.350 OBP the rest of the way.

Please no Dye as a Reds fan I would hate that. Here is a list of players who I would be interested in that could be involved in a trade that could help out our team.

Juan Pierre
Clint Barmes
Nick Punto
Bobby Crosby
Aubrey Huff
Jeff Francoeur
David Murphy
Josh Fields

-----
Please, please, PLEASE explain to me how these players help this team out and Jermaine Dye doesn't? Francoeur? Can you imagine Taveras and Francoeur in the SAME outfield?

Carlos Guillen is said to be pain free and now needs to build arm strength, and strength in general back up. He could be back around the break.
I'd be stunned if the plan wasn't to give the majority of Ordonez's plate appearances to Guillen, or to another OF bat that the Tigers acquire. Guillen will make $ 13 million each of 2010 and 2011. He might have been worth that as a SS, but not as a LF'er with declining power. I doubt any club takes on that contract other than in a salary swap. Same with Ordonez and his $ 18 million vesting option for 2010.

-- I'm sorry, but that has to be the dumbest thing I've ever heard on this site. No way the Reds would give up basically their 3 top prospects and their future in Bruce for Zimm and Willingham.

I am intrigued by the idea of trading for Michael Young if the Rangers were to fall out of conention. Them having Hamilton on the DL helps our chances to land Young

Posted by: dphill314 | June 29, 2009 at 11:20 PM

You know what, if the nationals really want to score a good deal of prospects, they should make a deal with the Reds. I mean, how possible? No idea but im gonna do my best to make it fair on both sides.

Reds receive-
Zimmerman (3B)
Willingham
Olsen

Nsationals recieve-
Dickerson
Bailey
Alonso
Fraizer
Soto
Roeneke
Malony
Cozart

I think that could work, and increases the Reds pitching options,

What do you think? i think Nats need a lot of prospects..and to be honest if you look at that list...its a lot of guys who could be legit players (maybe not stars) but real close to being ML ready.

The reds should do it because yes, they give up some good hitting prospects, and yes they give up some good hitting prospects, but look at the reality.

Reds have Votto, Phillips, Zimmerman (if the trade was done) Bruce, Willingham (if trade was done) and Stubbs relatively soon. That leaves quite few holes. Valkia and hanigan maybe?

we trade ptichers, but then wed have a rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Voleuz, Olsen, Owings. That gives us room to trade one of the more expensive guys, or put Micha in the pen. Hes done well, but i think hes a true player and will gladly pitch out of pen, as long as hes pinch hitting a lot, and pitching a lot. or we trade harang or arroyo and reload prospects..since we wont need prospects to come up for a couple years.

Nationals should do this because...

Dickerson- Has been tearing the ball lately. amazing defensively, gets hits, and is fast. hes not too young but hes controllable and could have some good years ahead of him.

Bailey-everyone knows the story. high school pitcher hyped to be the next Nolan, or Clemens. He did great in the minors, and has yet to do squat in the majors. he was set back a bit by injuries, lack of throwing strikes, and also then being stubborn. He could still end up a good pitcher, hes 23, has great potential. kind of stuff Nats need.

Fraizer- I love Fraizer. Hes a gamer. a good hitter. theres questions about his power, but hes stil hitting doubles and hitting well. Hes been playing left because hes been blocked by some other 3B prospects, but i think he could easily play 3rd, or left at the ML level.

Soto- Hes the third bsae prospect who held Fraizer out of 3rd base. Nats could use him at 3rd, or dangle him as bait, and have more infield prospects in the minors.

Roeneke- a hard thrower with movement. he has a good slider, but its inconsistent. is a good relief prospect and has potential to pitch well.

Malony- Left handed pitching prospect. easily replaces Olsen, and it another lefty. Hes pitched decent with the Reds, and has an incredible K/BB (look at his in the minors, this year, career, and his current stats for majors this year). i Doubt the nats would be disappointing with him.

Cozart- Another infield prospect, young short stop. A lot of people in reds kingdom (ctownboy will prob hate this whole post) like him a lot. The truth is hes a bit away, and i;'m convinced Janish or Valkia can handle the job, until someone real legit comes around, or Valkia/Janish win the job for good.

I think its a big, risk trade that could be real good, or real bad for the reds. i think the Nats have a lot of great potential on that side. Willingham is a right handed version of dunn, hes kind old and K's a lot, but power. Zimmerman is great so i think it could be worth it. and the reds need a lefty.

let me know what you guys think

Shelley Duncan has been withering away in AAA and could do well in GABP.

I hate that some teams financial situations force the fans to get excited about trading for Nick Punto.

Netbunnies, I wouldn't call Aubrey Huff "one of the worst" the league has to offer and also, don't have to worry about that 12M 2010 mutual option, just in case Dye decides that he has -0- chance of getting close to that on the open market this off season.

Ok, a couple of things here. First, Reds fans need to realize that Bronson Arroyo has negative trade value right now. No one wants a pitcher that has been trending downward since 2006, culminating in ERA+ of 95 in 2008 and 81 thus far in 2009, that's guaranteed 17+ million over the next 1.5 seasons. Second, Zimmerman is an absolute star that is locked up to an extremely reasonable contract through 2013. It would take an insane package to get the Nats to even start thinking about moving him. Something headlined by either Votto or both Bruce and Bailey, with multiple other good prospects as well. Maybe a deal with Alonso, Bailey, Fraizer, and multiple other pieces just for Zimmerman would get them thinking too, but I have my doubts about that one.

BTW, just to be clear, I'm not a Nats fan or anything. I'm a huge Braves fan, and I'd love to see them deal away Zimmerman for a lesser package, but that's just not how baseball works today.

But I think I would be willing to part with Stubbs and Wood to land Rios.... He would be under contract for the next 3-4 years so you could eventually have and OF of Heisey, Rios and Bruce....

Gmblng: that is an interesting trade that would at least make the Nationals pause to consider it. I think if the Nats had another corner stone player (Strasburg isn't signed yet) then that deal could very well be done. I actually think though the Nats and Reds could match up well in a deal. A Willingham and Guzman trade could work for a package of Bailey, Soto, Sutton, Roenick, and Cozart.

That seems fair for both sides. The Reds get a year and a half of Guzman and 2 and a half years of Willingham. The Nats get a solid package. Two quality arms, and 3 infielders. No one is a star but all have big league futures. Nats also clear up money, so Rizzo can build his own team and not make do with what Bowden left him.

you guys amaze me we finally build some depth in the organization and you guys want to throw it away. Schellis has some good thoughts, aside from them i would prefer to wait a year or two and have these guys help us and keep the payroll manageable

Gmblng: that is an interesting trade that would at least make the Nationals pause to consider it. I think if the Nats had another corner stone player (Strasburg isn't signed yet) then that deal could very well be done. I actually think though the Nats and Reds could match up well in a deal. A Willingham and Guzman trade could work for a package of Bailey, Soto, Sutton, Roenick, and Cozart.

That seems fair for both sides. The Reds get a year and a half of Guzman and 2 and a half years of Willingham. The Nats get a solid package. Two quality arms, and 3 infielders. No one is a star but all have big league futures. Nats also clear up money, so Rizzo can build his own team and not make do with what Bowden left him.

Posted by: Steveo26 | June 30, 2009 at 09:12 AM

I think between Nick Johnson, the lefty pitcher, and the prospects theyd get from the Reds can still keep the fans enticed. If they get 5-7 players that end up in the majors next year or the year after (alonso, fraizer, Soto and a couple others are very close) that they would end up realzing theyre building a great young staff, have more money, and a more rounded team.

I dont want Guzman personally. Old declining shrotstops are not what the reds want/need. Olsen woudl help because hes a lefty.

think between Nick Johnson, the lefty pitcher, and the prospects theyd get from the Reds can still keep the fans enticed. If they get 5-7 players that end up in the majors next year or the year after (alonso, fraizer, Soto and a couple others are very close) that they would end up realzing theyre building a great young staff, have more money, and a more rounded team.

I dont want Guzman personally. Old declining shrotstops are not what the reds want/need. Olsen woudl help because hes a lefty.

Posted by: GmblngPtchr20 | June 30, 2009 at 09:42 AM

While that may be true for other teams (Pirates), I think Nats fans would completely revolt if the trade was made. Johnson is on his way out, Dunn and Guzman both only have one more year, Willingham isn't that well endeared to the fan base yet. The Nats also don't have any top prospects in the minors (unlike the Pirates), while Alonzo and Frazier are nice I just don't see the Nats making the deal. Anyone else would be available at the right price.

GmblngPtchr20: I just think it sends the wrong message to the organization as well as the fans. They commited a good chunk of their payroll to him as the face of the franchise. Pre-extension, yeah, it could probably work out because they'd be replenishing their farm system. Post-extension, I think it'd be bad.

The problem is, the Reds, to part with their really good prospects, need to get someone who is good/great but also cost-effective. That's why a guy like Holliday would be a bad idea. It's also why I'd love to see a Teahen trade because he not only fills the needs but he's under contract for another year or so, for relatively cheap.

Am I missing something -- why hasn't Russell Branyan's name been mentioned? He's still hitting well, cheap (1.4 mil for this season I believe), wouldn't command a big return, and can play multiple positions (1B, 3B, OF)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp_bat.cgi?I=encared01:Edwin%20Encarnacion&st=career&compage=&age=

You'll see EE compares closely with 2-3 players people are willing to trade prospects for. I think all this talk needs to cool down for 3-4 weeks until we see how EE does.

To be fair, those player comps don't factor in defense at all, and that's what is really Encarnacion's downfall. He's also already signed for nearly 5 million next season and given what he's done so far this year, I doubt anyone would be too excited about paying him that much.

I totally agree with u schellis. I read some of your comments and I can definately tell you know what u are talkin about some of the other people have no clue. I think the reds biggest weakness is without a doubt ss Stephen Drew is the guy they should go after we have too many options in the of and ithink it is far easier to pick up an outfielder than it is a ss. With bruce dickerson stubbs and heisey we are fine in the of 3b should b our next option although i do think frazier should get a chance there. the trade of ee for jonathon sanchez in my mind would b a great ttrade as well u can never have enough pitching i am very impressed with sanchez.And I also hope the reds dont give up on homer i really like him sure he has struggled but any young pitcher that throws 98 ranks pretty high in my book and he is still only 23 in no way do i trade him for dye like others have suggested

Why didnt we sign Hudson this year and move BP to SS? I know a position move is a big deal. But Still we would have basically all GG we need and Hudson and BP are comparable at the plate average wise.

If Cozart gets moving through the minors, Why not throw $$ at Chone Figgins for 3rd? Legit leadoff who actually gets on base.

that may be the single worst comment on this site... ever. haren has been the best pitcher in the NL this year upton is very good and you think we could get them for basically just harang? Either would not be moved for anything but a top package he's an RBI machine.

I think ya'll should move Micah Owings to an everyday player and go get a decent pitcher. Owings can kill it!