Odds & Ends: Bruce, Ozzie, Indians

Edit that post quick Mr. Axisa!!

Thanks. I fixed that, but my battery died and I guess it didn't save. Oh well.

Matt Holliday would look pretty fine in that Reds outfield. And Todd Frazier or Zack Cozart would look pretty fine in the A's system.

But then, I honestly think the Reds team is built more for 2010 and should go for 2010. Especially without Bruce.

I wouldnt include Cozart in a trade for Holliday. The Reds have no SS and he is the closet thing to the future there. His bat is coming around in AA and his glove is probably MLB ready now so I wouldnt trade our possible SS of the future away for a rental. Frazier I could see being traded even though I'd hate it. For some reason they took him off 3rd and left stone hands Juan Francisco there. Not really sure what future Frazier has with the Reds

As a Reds fan I would love Holliday and would gladly trade Cozart and Frazier. Cozart is a fine SS but so is the reigning MLPOY Chris Valaika. I agree that this team is built for 2010 but if this team got Holliday and he saw what was going on here, he would consider re-signing at the end of the year.

The Reds won't trade for a bat, it's all rumors. Walt Jocketty can't add more than a few million to the payroll, and the player has to be an upgrade over what they already have. After the ASB, they need to call up Heisey (in the futures game) or Stubbs and let them play everyday. This team is not built for this year.

Bruce has to be one of the most unlucky regulars in baseball. He has slumped and struggled but it can mostly be explained by one stat, BABIP. Right now he's hitting .202 on balls in play, whereas league average is right around .300, that's a huge difference.

Bruce has to be one of the most unlucky regulars in baseball. He has slumped and struggled but it can mostly be explained by one stat, BABIP. Right now he's hitting .202 on balls in play, whereas league average is right around .300, that's a huge difference.

Posted by: bravesfan22193 | July 12, 2009 at 12:15 AM

I think you're reading a bit too much into BABIP. I don't blame you, EVERYBODY does it. It's fashionable.

But think it through. If a guy is not making good contact because he has contact issues.. his BABIP is going to be lower because he doesn't get the bat on as many balls. If a guy is red-hot he's hitting more balls so of course his BABIP will be higher.

Jay's contact issues probably stem from him being 22 and in the majors and being a heavy strikeout guy anyway. His 18 homers and big-time show he can play. He just needs more experience and patience, not necessarily better luck.

chavy6, I'm with you on this. My first thought was the same as yours. How would they make sense out of getting another bat if they already were looking for one? They were looking for an impact bat and lost an impact bat, so that means twice the package of players and there just isn't two guys that can help them, without stripping their farm system.

I think they become sellers even with a near .500 record. If they were leading the central than I would think they might be able to band-aid the problem with Gomes in a corner OF spot and get another corner through trade, but they have to make up ground, not sustain a lead, which is a different bird all together. Additionally, if we were in the first month of the season, then they would have time to get Bruce back AND get him up to speed, as you saw with Manny and many other guys who miss a long period of time, they just aren't ready to produce for 9 innings every game out when they miss so much time.

I think they'll keep Joey Votto, Chris Dickerson (because he has lots of affordable control years, regardless of age -27), Ryan Hanigan, Edwin Encarnacion, Jay Bruce (obviously), Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, and Micah Owings. Everybody else can be had in the right deal.

The relievers need to be moved because guys like Cordero, Weathers, Rhodes, etc. are all getting older and won't be effective when they are ready to compete.

This team is more than a couple pieces from competing. They need something a trade can't give them...time. Bruce will be a great MLB player, but not for a couple years. They rushed him to the majors and he really needs to be at AAA fixing the holes in his swing. I would send him back down.

As for 1B, I'd make a decision to keep Votto or Yonder and trade the other to fill holes at other positions.

Hardest guys to move because of contract and/or performance: Ramon Hernandez, Francisco Cordero, Willy Taveras, Alex Gonzalez, Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang.

Best trade chips out of the rest: Brandon Phillips, Jared Burton, Yonder Alonso, Jerry Hairston, and Jonny Gomes.

They need young guys and team controlled players. For instance acquiring someone like Luke Scott for Yonder Alonso, would give them a more veteran guy who at 30, still has 3+ control years and plays a decent LF, in Cincy he'd hit a ton of HR and be able help strengthen the lineup for the next few years.

Maybe working a deal out with the Mariners as they could use some veteran guys with affordable contracts and could potentially eat a bad contract as well. Trading Phillips, Hairston, Harang, and Rhodes. Which would rid Cincy of 45MM in guaranteed money. This year would save them $10MM on the remaining balance and it would save them around $21MM on next years payroll. Roughly that's 15% of their payroll this year and 30% of next year's payroll supposing it doesn't go up.

In return the Mariners could send a package like Wlad Balentien, Adam Moore, Greg Halman, Nathan Adcock, Ronny Cedeno, Jharmidy DeJesus, Brett Lorin and Donald Hume. Basically pumping up the Reds system by making one big trade. The Reds would probably have to throw in $5MM basically covering buyouts, plus a little bit of this next year's salary increases.

Hairston would go to SS, Phillips to 3B, with Phillips moving to SS when/if Beltre returns from the DL. Rhodes becomes the LH specialist, and Harang becomes the #4 starter splitting up Washburn and Vargas.

But think it through. If a guy is not making good contact because he has contact issues.. his BABIP is going to be lower because he doesn't get the bat on as many balls. If a guy is red-hot he's hitting more balls so of course his BABIP will be higher.

Jay's contact issues probably stem from him being 22 and in the majors and being a heavy strikeout guy anyway. His 18 homers and big-time show he can play. He just needs more experience and patience, not necessarily better luck.

Posted by: withpower | July 12, 2009 at 08:13 AM

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Ummm, I'm not a sabermetrics guy myself, but I know enough to be dangerous (i.e. enough to argue with someone who refuses to use classic statistics) and his poor contact rate has nothing to do with his BABIP. The fact that his BABIP is down shows he's unlucky. Strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, etc. all don't count towards BABIP. All BAIP tells you is how often when a player hits a ball, does that ball end up in a fielder's glove or turns into a hit. A low BABIP is more telling than a high BABIP. For instance a guy like Ryan Howard who hits a ton of HR raises his BABIP by the fact that 40+ balls that qualify towards the BABIP are uncatchable a.k.a. homeruns. When a guy like Ichiro has the same BABIP as Howard, then you know that Ichiro is getting more luck than Ryan. Bruce hits a lot of HR so he's the type of guy that should be above .300 BABIP, not close to dropping below .200. The biggest issue with Bruce is that he's not adapting very well to the scouting reports that are made of him. He's still playing his game, but his game has to change with each new scouting report, or the game will pass him by. One more example, Branyan is on course for 170 SO this year in Seattle and has a BABIP over .330, so looking at Bruce versus Branyan, the only difference is BABIP, both strikeout a lot, both hit a lot of HR, but Branyan is getting more balls to fall in for him, part of playing in a big ballpark maybe, or he's just lucky.

how does an unparalleled ability to make contact have anything to do with BABIP?

Iknow -

Sorry, but you're simply wrong on most of that post. For starters, and most importantly, home runs do not count anywhere in the calculation of BABIP. They're specifically factored out. That makes the vast majority of the rest of your post simply discardable.

Second, withpower was correct in that if you're going through a slump you're going to have a low BABIP that has nothing to do with luck. A stretch of lazy fly balls because your timing is off at the plate is going to rock your BABIP, and it has nothing to do with whether or not you're being more or less unlucky than the next player. You're simply hitting poorly.

And third, though many will probably dispute this, BABIP is really more of a pitcher's statistic. It's intended to be primarily a measure of defense and pitching, which is probably why home runs are factored out in what could only be described as somewhat unintuitive when used from the batter's perspective.

The Reds are going nowhere and should look to 2010 (preferably without a bunch of retreads from the Mariners). Unfortunately, Dusty Baker will still be the manager, so perhaps they should look to 2011 instead.