Olney On The Battle For Young Talent

The next big wave of GM geniuses will be those that don't over-value their young talent.

These will be GM's who aren't afraid to trade away top minor league talent for more "sure things" that are already in the bigs.

These GM's will take advantage of guys like Abreu, Hudson, Dunn, etc. Veteran talent that signed for significantly less than they were worth.

These GM's realize that players are really only affordable for the first 2-3 years. After that arbitration kicks in and big paychecks ensue. Lincecum and Howard are 2 examples.

I also find it funny to hear about how Cashman values youth and then signs contracts in the off-season totaling nearly half a BILLION dollars.

Ugh, I hope that was an inside joke with the author of the post because people who say First! should be put on a large boat, sent to the middle of the ocean and sunk to the bottom.
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And yes, despite signing big free agent contracts Cash still sees the value of homegrown players. 13 of 25 guys on the active roster are from the farm.

Now that we are in the post-steroid and "greenie" era, I think we are going to see the shelf lives of players getting shorter and there will be more of an emphasis on developing young players.

That's why teams who subscribe too much to the "win now" philosophy without a healthy balance of developing for the future are going to pay a big price down the road.

Teams that draft and develop well are probably going to start hoarding their prospects more and they will probably not want to give any of them up without a steep price.

"People say the Yankees buy pennants and world series. But i find it funny that the Yankees have more homegrown players on their roster then the Red Sox and the Ray's. So why arn't they the ones that buy all there players."

Again, this is a joke, right?

What about it is a joke? Sox have 11 and the Rays have 9 or 10.

Whats so funny?

"What about it is a joke? Sox have 11 and the Rays have 9 or 10.

Whats so funny?"

then name the players for us

Suzys, name what players? Do you really want me to go through each 25 man roster and point out who came through each team's farm? Is that necessary? Go look for yourself. All you've done is take an indignant tone and repost everything I've said.

I like how Olney got the help of BP with lots of statistical analysis to prove that the game is getting younger. Way to go.

I love reading Olney's odd and generally unhelpful statistical anaylsis.

If I am counting correctly, Boston only has 10 active and 11 would be Jed Lowrie who has been on the DL, or rehabbing/optioned for more plate appearances since 3rd week in April:

Bard,
MDC
Lester
Masterson
Papelbon
Kottaras
Bates
Pedroia
Youkilis
Ellsbury

They also have 3 NPB guys that are 1st timers to MLB BB and really, Bates will probably be optioned to AAA when Lowell is activated knocking the number back to 10.

None on this list is "venerable", with all of them well shy of 30 other than Youk, so they should be around for quite some time and Bucholz will be an addition for a few days as well.

Ah yes you are correct, Steve.

Nevertheless, I wasn't saying it's a competiton. My original point was that Cash still realizes the importance of the farm system as nearly half of the active roster is from the farm. Are guys like Phil Coke and Dave Robertson going to be stars? Hell no, but they're cheap solid bullpen arms which is most definitely a nice commodity to have. Do I think Melky and Gardner are the next Mantle and Dimaggio? Nooooo but their little CF platoon has produced a .293/.361/.439 batting line, fourth best among centerfielders in the AL and behind only the Orioles in the AL East.(h/t RAB)

And I agree with you. By not giving away the farm, Cashman proves that point.

True, I think he always had an eye on getting Sabathia the next year and only having to pay money not prospects as well.
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yanks12025- I specifically said the yanks had 13 homegrown guys on the ACTIVE roster. CM Wang is on the dl and technically not on the 25 man. Therefore it's only 12 guys from the farm currently on the MLB roster. Steve was right

- just wanted to clarify once one. Yes, the Yankees might just be taking advantage of the system as it currently set up, and yes they might be using the resources available to them. But if we were talking a team like the Royals or Pirates, only a handful of the players would have ever realistically been possibilities for them. "Homegrown" I guess can cover a huge area that is left open for interpretation, but when almost everything is overpaid for due to unbalanced resources, it looses its meaning.

"You can't do that with jeter, Posada, Rivera, they are still homegrown. Lets say Lester, Pedoria and Youkilis they all signed new contracts this offseason."

Jeter, Posada and Rivera all signed those deals above market upon hitting free agency.

Lester, Pedroia and Youkilis all signed their deals to buy out the remainder of their arbitration years, along with a year of FA or two.

There's a clear difference.

"Jeter, Posada and Rivera all signed those deals above market upon hitting free agency."

To expand

Posada = highest paid catcher in the game (averaging 13.1 million, to next closest 8.25)

Jeter = highest paid SS in the game (averaging 18.9 million, next closest 16)

Rivera = highest paid reliever in the game (average 15, next is 12.5)

I disagree with you too much to get into writing a dissertation so I'll just throw out a few bullet points because everybody likes bullet points.

-Hughes was an overdraft? He was at one point a top 5 prospect in all of baseball. I don't know how that is an overdraft.

-Chamberlain is an overdraft too? While he has struggled to find consistency this year he has most definitely showed signs of being a dominant pitcher out of the bullpen and rotation. He was a supplemental pick who has the potential to be a #1 or #2 type starter. (Whether he actually reaches that potential is another story.)

-Dave Robertson was an overdraft???? Come on now you're just reaching. He was taken in the friggin 17th round! Stopgap? That's your opinion I guess.

-Gardner? Eh. A 3rd rounder who is currently hitting .282/.352/.404, raises hell on the basepaths (18 SB's) and is sporting a gaudy 20.1 UZR in CF. He's probably a little stretched to be a full time starter on a championship caliber team, but he's a hell of a weapon off the bench as a pinch runner/ defensive replacement on a team where stuff like that is important in the playoffs. Nevertheless that's not too bad for the 29th pick of the 3rd round. (Especially considering only 4 other guys taken ahead of him that round have seen action in the majors- (micah owings, taylor teagarden josh geer, and jensen lewis)

-Melancon was a 9th round pick. He's had nil success at the majors in like 6 innings pitched so to pass judgment on that is pretty ridiculous. His dominance in college and the minors would lead most talent evaluators to beleive he will see success in the future. Plus, an overdraft in the 9th round? I think you're getting a little crazy. If not for impending TJ he would have been selected much higher.Again, H/t RAB for this nugget "Melancon was considered a borderline first round talent prior to his junior season, when Baseball America rated him the top prospect in the state, the 14th best college prospect, and the 35th best draft prospect overall.His injury killed his stock because teams feared he would need Tommy John surgery. Melancon ultimately fell to the ninth round, when the Yanks grabbed him with the 284th overall pick. http://riveraveblues.com/2009/02/prospect-profile-mark-melancon-7282/

-Wang signed for 1.9 million, hardly a "huge amount" or a "huge risk". The Athletics just spent like 7 million on Ynoa, The pirates are going to drop a boatload on Sano.

-Discounting jeter, Mo and posada because they make a lot of money is stupid to me. Nobody I mean NOBODY thought any of them would leave Ny.They were all producing at a high level when they signed their latest contracts, and were pretty much given them as a reward for time served. It's not like there was a crazy bidding war for Mo and Posada where the yanks swooped in and blew everybody out of the water. it was understood they were going to resign, it was just a matter of how much blood they could squeeze from the stone.

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In summation, I respectfully disagree with your assessment. Yay internet!

Overdraft might have been the wrong word - overslot I think is what I was looking for. No matter the phrase, having talent drop from their expected slots in the draft to the only teams able to sign them is how it should be read.

And yes, Wang in 2000 was a huge amount. Maybe it isnt as much now, but it was. And honestly, it is still pretty high now for non-elite guys.

Anyway, like I said, if everything you have is because you spent more money then others could, then it is pushing the boundaries of "homegrown" and it looses almost all meaning. And it isnt just the Yankees, it is the Red Sox as well, and the Mets to an extent (but they arent very good at it) and Detroit recently with overslot/overdraft (whatever its called) and even my own team is guilty. I will say we developed Zambrano, but when it comes to him being homegrown, I will say it like it really is - we threw buckets of money at him so he wouldnt go away.

"These GM's will take advantage of guys like Abreu, Hudson, Dunn, etc. Veteran talent that signed for significantly less than they were worth."

Totally agree here. And draft picks are also being overvalued ridiculously, as so many first round or early second round talents slip to way later rounds. The Angels and A's stuck out as clubs who tried that last offseason.

It really worked out with Fuentes, Rivera, and Abreu for the Angels. It just didn't work out when Orlando Cabrera and Jason Giambi decided to drop a combined 300+ OPS points and OCab completely lost his ability to field. Oh, and the Matt Holliday fail. So there is a lot of luck involved.

"Overdraft might have been the wrong word - overslot I think is what I was looking for. No matter the phrase, having talent drop from their expected slots in the draft to the only teams able to sign them is how it should be read."

Yeah, its overslot. Although its more small market teams doing it now. There were a lot of Royals/Pirates/A's overslot picks in later rounds, although there were also quite a few Red Sox ones I saw.

Ah yes, overslot is a heck of a different creature than overdraft and changes the whole tone of your post. That's the only way they're gonna get talent through the draft though. They're perpetually drafting within the last 10 picks of every round. Most if not all of their top prospects were given large overslot bonuses, even I can't argue with that. The whole slot system is flawed at it's core.

It's actually a combination of both Casanova Wong that a few teams are using, that is both overdraft, followed by overslot.

Boston up until this year was BIG into not minding one bit on paying HUGE overslot bonuses, maybe they are just holding back until closer to 8/17 to announce the biggest and most flagrantly excessive, but this year very few HS kids have signed for excessive dollars as of yet.

I wouldnt be suprised if the Yanks tried to clone the perfect player out of A-Roid, Pettitte and Clemens with a dash of HGH thrown in there too

It is still a core of grown talent that the Yankees brought up, even though it was over 10 years ago and they are getting old together goox21. The key will be if the Yankees have the patience to bring/develop another group together again and when they do. I have seen cycles over the past 40 years, since Steinbrenner bought the team that they have developed players and they like to do it in bunches and do some research into greats like Don Mattingly, Willie Randolph, "Louisiana Lightning" lefty the nickname that even forget his real name He won 25 games once and many more over his career..LOL He was good though.

The Yankees have always developed, just always it seemed like brought them up in bunches, then would revert to "buying" in bunches in between, or trading for like Chris Chambliss, Graig Nettles, Dick Tidrow etc. with prospects that were always duds. They were always smart.

I also find it funny to hear about how Cashman values youth and then signs contracts in the off-season totaling nearly half a BILLION dollars.

Posted by: bjsguess | July 15, 2009 at 05:23 PM
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Why do people act as if developing home grown players and signing big free agents are mutualy exclusive?

Also, the arguements of overslotting, international free agents and prospects acquired via trades are all silly and pointless arguements being made. There are very few teams that survive and build their teams up like the Brewers and Rays. If your a perennial contender like the Yanks, Sox or Angeles then you truly can't conduct business the same as franchizes like the Rays who benefited from years and years of last place finishes that resulted in 10 straight years of having a pick somewhere between #1 to #8 overall.

Whether you choose to give credit or not, I commend Cash for being able to turn to the Cervelli's, Pena's and Hughe's of the world to replace injured vets when hurt.

Also, to nit pick about whether a prospect was an international signee (Wang, Cano, Cabrera, etc) or not is amusing to say the least because just about ever team in baseball is signign players from overseas and it's not like they were huge multi-million dollar investments.

As for the homegrown vets we retained, since when is that a bad thing and why should they not be counted as homegrown players? You act as if a player who stays w/ his original team past 6 years discounts the fact that he was homegrown. I'm not being defensive or anything but is that what baseball "should" be about? Players who are homegrown and stay with 1 team for their careers? Doesn't continuity mean anything? Otherwise teams would be turning over new players every 6 years.

One interesting note:

The majority of their payroll is tied up into 9 players (Aj, CC, Tex, Jeter, Arod, Posada, Mo, Matsui and Damon). I give credit to Cash for finding, developing and trading for guys like Swisher, Cervelli, Pena, Hughes, Joba, Coke, Robertson, Aceves, Bruney, Cabrera and Gardner because those are the guys that have held this team together this year. With so much money tied into those guys, it's imperative for Cash to find and develop good young players such as some of those mentioned above and hopefully guys like Jackson, Montero, Romines, Melancon, etc so that we can replace aging vets for cheaper and younger talent. I think that not only helps keep us competitive but HOPEFULLY will put the Yanks payroll on a more modest $150-$170 range. Still much more than most other teams but a step in the right direction. For that reason, I hope Cash shows restraint and passes on Halladay. While Halladay makes us a better team this year it reduces our options to replace vets like Damon, Mo, Posada, Pettite, Jeter when they leave/retire or need to be moved from their current positions. Trading the pieces needed to get Halladay creates more problems in the near future than it solves today.

It is still a core of grown talent that the Yankees brought up, even though it was over 10 years ago and they are getting old together goox21. The key will be if the Yankees have the patience to bring/develop another group together again and when they do. I have seen cycles over the past 40 years, since Steinbrenner bought the team that they have developed players and they like to do it in bunches and do some research into greats like Don Mattingly, Willie Randolph, "Louisiana Lightning" lefty the nickname that even forget his real name He won 25 games once and many more over his career..LOL He was good though.
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Ron Guidry is the guy you're thinking of. Yanks have done a good job of integrating young players into the fold over the last 4 years. Cano, Wang, Cabrera, Joba, Hughes, Coke, Robertson and Gardner all came up since 2005. Hughes, Pena, Cervelli, Melancon and Austin Jackson could all become major pieces of the team in 2010.

Nobody is happy about the Cubs and Rangers current financial situation and that they look like they are going to be unable to make any acquisitions this year to improve themselves Suzysman and that seems to be the basis for entire "argument" over homegrown players and budget, but you are also leaving out that the Cubs 2009 payroll is a whopping 134M which without looking imagine is top 3 in all of baseball.

Maybe the new Cubs ownership will begin to invest heavily in scouting in both the US/Asian and Latin American countries and spend heavily to find and draft these kids that other teams may pass over, but to afford them and give them what it takes, like Boston signing Alex Wilson that the Cubs drafted last season and they could not sign.. He's doing pretty good also and signed for 470K.

As far as the Yanks are concerned, they do have all of that homegrown talent, but they also have the budget to keep those guys around.

Most teams would be tapped out off of Jeter's contract alone.

A lot of teams have great homegrown talent but can't afford to hold on to them.

And for those of you who want to talk about the 96 Yanks being a homegrown, young, gritty team.

Are you choosing to ignore Joe Girardi, Tino Martinez, Wade Boggs, Daryl Strawberry, Paul O'Neil, Ruben Sierra, Dwight Gooden, Kenny Rogers, and David Cone?

"Sigh...such a schmuck...I would say fanuc but you probably don't know what that is."

Wow, you live in Jersey and own the Soprano's 1st Season Box Set. How impressive.

Gardner = Reggie Willits - Lite

^^^^ this guy gets it.

yankees are pathetic. They are wasting our tax money in NY. Mets paid with the money from a bank which is ok. The damn Yankee$ those money steelin idiots wasted it from the government talk about that. They were suppose to be the richest team in baseball. Sike . Mean the poorest team.