Ned Colletti Comments

I would think Ethier, Bills, and Kemp would be locks, with Martin probably being in the mix as well, seeing as Santana is no longer lurking behind him in the minors (not really familiar with the Dodgers farm system, so I'm unsure if they have any other suitable replacements in the near future at Catcher.)

You gotta lock up Ethier and Broxton right now. They are studs who will be all-stars for the next 5 years. Bills prolly wont sign long term after that awful second half - really hurt his value. I'd be careful with Kemp and Martin, I'd just like to see some more consistency to be sure. Loney is the most difficult because he's not a difference maker. He'll never be a heart of the order guy, but if you can keep him cheaply as a support guy thats great.

Ethier sorry sp error

I think Ethier and Kemp should certainly be locked up. Martin is a possibility, but Loney doesn't have enough pop for me at a power position like 1B.

Also, Would anybody consider trading Broxton now considering there is a viable closer option on the roster in George Sherril? (although I really like Sherril as a set-up guy or situational lefty). I imagine the Dodgers could get quite a haul for him.

I'd try to lock up everyone except Loney and Martin. I'd try to package those two with some young pitching for either King Felix, Halladay, or Adrian Gonzales.

"we made some moves that in hindsight you wouldn't do twice. "

Is this in reference to Manny?
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I'd say more towards the Jason Schmidt signing, Normar signing, Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre.

Kemp, Ethier, Billingsley and Martin.
Ill lock Martin since he is an above-average catcher and this is a shallow position. I think Billingsley has lots of room to develop. There are too many closers in the market and Loney can be replaced easily.

Kemp and Ethier should be locked up now, especially Ethier considering his numbers this season and the fact that he is going into his second year of arbitration. He made $3.1 in a last minute deal last year to avoid arb IIRC, and given the power numbers he put up, I would assume a large raise upon that if it were to go to arb this season. So lock him up and buy out the first year or two of FA.

Kemp is the centerpiece of this offense/OF for years to come. However, this marks his first year of arb, so presumably it would be safe to see what he ways for next season and go from there, although I would feel much better as a fan knowing we have him for the future.

Bills and Martin underperformed this year, so I would let arb decide their salaries for next season and if they bounce back, look to inking them long-term.

Brox is a beast out of the pen, but the shelf life for relievers is so fickle that it seems a better call to go year-by-year with him until that is no longer an option (same goes for Sherill).

Loney needs to show me more. If he can bounce back toward 2007 form (.331/.381/.538 in 96 games and 375 PA), then yes, ink him despite the low HR totals for a first baseman.

I would attempt to keep all of them. But I would only work out long term contracts with the hitters. Loney is still a possible trade candidate depending on the next two years of production.
Billingsley and Broxton need to be kept...but not at the expense of a long contract. A lefty reliever like Sherrill is always a plus...but they don't have to have him, an attempt to keep him year to year should be established.

I agree with others that Kemp and Ethier have got to be priorities. Kemp is already put up incredible numbers and is only going to get better. His defense and speed in addition to the offense make him perhaps the most valuable player on the Dodgers. As far as Ethier, all Andre needs to do is learn to bounce back from slumps a bit more quickly, he's already a solid all around player.

Loney - Not enough offensive production - yet - to be a fixture at 1B. He either needs to improve his power numbers or be able to maintain a higher BA/OBP. Wait and see.

Martin - Might be a good time to lock him up, after a down year. Considering the cost of catchers of his caliber, he's worth considering for a long-term contract.

Billingsley - Might be a good time to lock him up, too, considering his value must have taken a hit for his post All-Star numbers. We know he has ace potential, he just seems to be a bit of a headcase.

Broxton - I'd give him a pass, for now. Why? Closers aren't *that* hard to come by. Sherrill has closer experience. Belisario has closer stuff, just needs more seasoning. Kuo, when healthy, is equally dominant. I'd give Broxton another year to prove himself. This year, he seems to be a different pitcher altogether when on the road:

Home - 45.0 IP, 14 hits, 3 runs, 2 ER, 0 HR, 9 BB, 73 SO, 0.40 ERA, 0.51 WHIP, .095 BAA
Away - 31.0 IP, 30 hits, 21 runs, 20 ER, 4 HR, 20 BB, 41 SO, 5.81 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, .252 BAA

... that's an issue for me. He seems to lose that confidence and killer instinct when he is on the road. I'd also like to see him improve upon his off-speed stuff. Too many times I've seen him throw 10 straight fastballs getting them constantly fouled off. So, wait and see.

Sherrill - His numbers have been great since becoming a Dodger, but he is hardly a lights out pitcher. He doesn't make it easy. Leaves lots of guys stranded on base. Too many hits and walks for my taste. I'd pass on a long term contract, unless it is a very favorable deal to the Dodgers (less than $3.5m/year).

To me, in order of importance: Kemp, Ethier, Billingsley, Martin, Broxton, Loney, Sherrill

Ethier is somewhat below average defensively but certainly not poor, and it seems like a bit of an oversight to ding any player who now seems capable of hitting over 30 HRs a year and for average. He has also been productive in clutch situations, which is not a common trait among ballplayers.

At the right price and length of contract, I lock them all up. Finding better players at each of these positions at less money is probably all but impossible, unless you've got virtually guaranteed talent coming up through the minors.

Kemp really has to be the priority though. I'd like to see him remain a Dodger for many years to come.

DAMN TYPEPAD!!!! it deleted my huge post before it was posted, so I'll give the basis....

Kemp needs to be locked up tonight. He is a monster and will be an MVP someday, and if he learns how to not K as much, could make a run at a triple crown. He has that much potential... 6-60= steal for the dodgers, IMO.

Ethier is a great player. He has the offensive numbers of a MOTO hitter, even with his defense being... bad. He is truly a LF who is playing RF because of Manny and we Pierre(before Manny came). 6-55 is a good deal.

Martin is a special guy. He has great defense, with his offense struggling. I think that its because of his large amount of games played at catcher, which equal an amazing 548 games, in about 4 seasons. 5-40 seems like a good place.

Craig, Ellis and May will be lucky to be backups and in no way should be starters... ever.

Billz is unique. He has ace stuff and potential, showed it the 1st 1/2 of the season, then struggled. I think part of his struggles have to do with the Broken leg. He looked great, IMO, because he had so much muscle built up in his legs after recovering from surgery. In the 2nd half, he stopped this training progams/the muscle he built up deteriorated and he had less leg strength. Thats why his control went down, but his velocity stayed the same. I sign him 4-6 yrs guareented at about 9M average.

With Broxton, he had 6 games where he gave up 2 or more runs. He pitched in 73 games. Having 6 bad games is pretty good. It happened that many of them were on the road. He is still an elite talent who throws 4 pitchs(4SFB-at 97-103mph, slider-90-92mph, change-82-85mph, splitter-90-93mph) 4 to 5 years isnt that much of a strectch, espically with him being young...

"And I won't even go into how amorphous and difficult to gauge a player's ability to be clutch is."

Maybe you should. Sorry to make an example out of you, since you do make intelligent contributions to these discussions -- but this remark is an example of what I think is wrong with the thinking of too many baseball fans today. A common view seems to be that if some type of performance can't be expressed in statistics (or simply isn't), then maybe it doesn't exist.

The truth is, the game is still played by human beings, and stats are not kept for every form of performance. And don't get me started on whether many fans even understand what many of these complex new stats mean. Whether stats are kept on it or not, managers have to know who they can use in pressure situations, the ones who crack and the ones who keep their cool.

Anybody think the Dodgers might trade for Roy Halladay if the lose to the phillies?

Posted by: jbrock | October 21, 2009 at 12:31 PM

I doubt it. The problem has been hitting, there should be no moves made like that for a pitcher. The problem is, though, there arent any places to get a big bat on offense. Idk.

"The truth is, the game is still played by human beings, and stats are not kept for every form of performance. And don't get me started on whether many fans even understand what many of these complex new stats mean. Whether stats are kept on it or not, managers have to know who they can use in pressure situations, the ones who crack and the ones who keep their cool."

Actually, Ethier has pretty good "clutch" numbers, he improves his performance in high-leveredged situations. So clearly this guy isn't choking under pressure. I'm just saying that you have to that kind of thing in perspective, because you're talking about things that really aren't easy to define. Yeah, Ethier might be clutch, but he's still a hitter that's never posted an OPS over 900 and his defensive numbers have been pretty bad for two years running.

Definitely a good player, but probably not the star that his counting numbers might indicate.

As I mourn the atrocious loss the Dodgers fell victim to tonight, I thought that I would take a look at this thread.

I agree that the majority of all of these players should be locked up, if not all of them. Kemp is the priority in my opinion (I know that this is not very controversial). He is establishing himself as one of the best CFs in the game. Power, avg, defense, speed, the whole package. He has the potential to be one of those players that come along only once in a great while.

While he had a down second half, I think that Bills is a major priority as well. He is going through some growing pains and is still fairly young. His stuff has never been questioned, but rather his control. This is the aspect of most pitchers game that develops last, and not a major concern in my opinion.

Broxton should be locked up as well. In spite of his meltdown in Game 4 of the NLCS he was one of the best closers in the game this year.

Also, Ethier has to be locked up. I fully comprehend Scribbletone's concerns, but I still feel that he needs to be signed long term. There is no telling what he will do offensively next year, and there is no reason he can't improve his defense (he has a terrific arm). Additionally, there is no real alternative that will come at anywhere near the price it will cost to sign Ethier. Power bats seem to be in high demand this offseason, as many large-market, high budget teams seek such pieces.

Also, dispite his down offensive year, Martin should be locked up too. He has improved defensively this year and would likely have to take at least a small cut in pay due to his performance this year. Seems like a good time to lock him up. Additionally, there is no replacement for him in our farm system as of right now. As we all know, catchers do not come cheap in trades (unless Colletti is giving Santana away for Blake).

To me Loney and Sherrill are the two big question marks. We have no immediate replacement for Loney, but he is definitely under-producing offensively as a major-league first baseman. I say we give Loney another year to prove that he can at least hit for a higher avg, if he can't hit for more power. The same goes for Sherrill, don't lock him up just yet. I say give him another year and see how it goes and what happens with our farm system.

So in order: Kemp, Bills, Martin, Ethier, Broxton, (Ethier and Broxton are about equal), Loney, Sherrill

Also, in regard to the statistics conversation, I have to fully agree with BlueSky. Each and every statistical analysis possesses some amount of error, and as BlueSky stated, as the intricacy and complexity of analyses increases the "room for error" increases as well. This is why the most complicated statistical analyses are not always considered the best. In some instances, simple analyses that are used and interpreted properly are the best.

I am no statistician, but I use use statistics regularly in research. This is a lesson taught in just about each and every statistics class I have ever taken.

BlueSky are you a researcher? You seem to be well versed in methodology and research. If so, what type of research do you do?

What else do you want from Ethier? He hit 20Hrs in 08, 31 this yr, 6 walk off hits and hit BABIP went WAY down this year. If he gets back to his career norm, he hits 300-310 with 31HRs and 120RBIS...