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« Rockies Rumors: Marquis, Barmes, De La Rosa | Main | Odds & Ends: Jaramillo, Varitek, D'Backs »
Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds
Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Reds. Their likely commitments for 2010:
C - Ryan Hanigan - $400K
C - Corky Miller - $450K+
1B - Joey Votto - $438K
2B - Brandon Phillips - $6.75MM
SS - Paul Janish - $400K
3B - Scott Rolen - $11MM
IF - Drew Sutton - $400K
LF - Jonny Gomes - $600K+
CF - Drew Stubbs - $400K
RF - Jay Bruce - $418K
OF - Willy Taveras - $4MM
OF - Laynce Nix - $600K+
OF - Chris Dickerson - $400K
SP - Aaron Harang - $12.5MM
SP - Bronson Arroyo - $11MM
SP - Johnny Cueto - $418K
SP - Homer Bailey - $401K
SP - Justin Lehr - $400K
Other candidates: Matt Maloney, Micah Owings
RP - Francisco Cordero - $12MM
RP - Arthur Rhodes - $2MM
RP - Nick Masset - $418K+
RP - Mike Lincoln - $2.5MM
RP - Jared Burton - $420K+
RP - Micah Owings - $420K+
RP - Danny Herrera - $400K
Other commitments: Ramon Hernandez - $1MM buyout
Non-tender candidates: Corky Miller, Bill Bray, Laynce Nix
The Reds have about $70MM committed before arbitration raises to Miller, Gomes, Nix, Masset, Burton, and Owings. We'll allocate another $5MM for those raises, puting the team in the $75MM range. The Reds were at $73.6MM heading into the season, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. Given the lack of payroll space, it's no surprise GM Walt Jocketty told MLB.com's Mark Sheldon his interest in free agents will be minimal this offseason.
The Reds should have a strong defensive infield in 2010, especially if they decide Janish's glovework makes up for his poor hitting.
Between Stubbs and Dickerson, the Reds should have a workable internal solution for center field that does not involve giving 400+ plate appearances to Taveras. Replacing Taveras and getting more out of Bruce and Rolen seems to be the easiest route to an improved offense in 2010.
Jocketty has spoken of his desire to add a "quality RBI man" despite the lack of payroll space. Non-tendering Gomes would make little sense, as he could be that RBI man for a few million bucks (Gomes slugged .541 this year).
Jocketty could also free up cash by trading Harang or Arroyo. A team like the Mets might be interested in assuming one of those contracts if the demand for players is minimal. But it's hard to see how that would improve the Reds, who are not in a position to subtract a starter now that Edinson Volquez is unlikely to contribute in 2010 (Tommy John surgery). The best rotation addition for the buck is probably free agent pitching coach Dave Duncan, but his inclination is to stay in St. Louis.
One pitcher Jocketty could afford to trade is Cordero, given Masset's success in 2009. The Reds' closer has two years and $25MM remaining. The problem is that the Reds would have to assume half his contract to make Cordero mildly appealing.
Jocketty overspent on Taveras and Lincoln a year ago, committing $10.25MM to the pair. Add that to the $11MM the Reds GM took on for Rolen next year, and it's clear the Reds don't have much flexibility this winter. Improvements will have to come from within.
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Bronson Arroyo is a weird pitcher. I remember in the first half, he was winning a lot of games, but not pitching well so no one wanted him. He seems like he'll have some good games then an absolute trainwreck the other.
But, in the second half, he was completely dominant. He was pitching pretty much 8 innings a night, if someone would have traded for him or claimed him, they could have rode him into the postseason.
Posted by: bigpat | October 14, 2009 at 12:35 PM
A quality RBI man? Yeah, a quality RBI man is going to improve Willy's ability to reach base... you know... the guy who hits in front of the so-called RBI men. Right. I suppose Votto has to merely learn to be clutchier.
Posted by: ThinkBlech | October 14, 2009 at 12:40 PM
Arroyo should interest a lot more teams, he always wins games and he is a work horse. The Mets have the money to get him and he could be very good in the Mets huge park. If the Reds can stay healthy then the offense should improve.
Posted by: KyWilson1 | October 14, 2009 at 12:43 PM
The only way for the Reds to make a splash is to put Votto on the trade block. With Yonder Alonso coming soon they can do this and garner many helpful pieces.
Posted by: dan l | October 14, 2009 at 12:46 PM
dan - I don't think this offseason is the time to deal Votto. They have him really cheap for next year, and Alonso won't be ready until midseason next year anyway (especially if they want to delay the start of his arb. clock, which is likely).
Posted by: ThinkBlech | October 14, 2009 at 12:51 PM
Votto
Phillips
Rolen
Bruce
will run produce.
I expect a better sophomore season from Bruce.
I like this kid Francisco.
Like THINKBLECH said Alonso will be a mid-season callup at the earliest.
Harang could net them a top of a lineup hitter.
Outside of an aging Damon I don't see anything on the FA market.
This team is very close to turning it around.
Posted by: ToBe | October 14, 2009 at 01:07 PM
"A quality RBI man? Yeah, a quality RBI man is going to improve Willy's ability to reach base... you know... the guy who hits in front of the so-called RBI men. Right. I suppose Votto has to merely learn to be clutchier."
Yeah, I don't see how power is a bigger issue than on-base ability for the Reds.
They're top of the order consists of some combination of Dickerson, Taveras, Stubbs and Janish, and the middle of their order consists of Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Rolen and presumably Gomes.
The middle of the order is actually pretty good if Votto and Bruce are there for the full-season, but the top of the order is a huge issue.
They need to add a leadoff hitter far more than they need to add a clean-up hitter.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 14, 2009 at 01:20 PM
The Reds really don't need a lead off hitter, I think Stubbs and Dickerson can do fine in the first slot.
If you do get a lead off hitter they would almost have to be a short stop or a catcher, especially if Gomes is offered arbitration.
I see the Reds having a quiet off-season with maybe one under the radar trade to get a starting SS that can bring more to the table then Janish.
Some Reds fans have suggested going after Brignac of the Rays. I think a Juan Fransisco for Brignac deal would work for both sides.
With Bartlett in place and Beckham on the way the Rays really don't need Brignac unless they plan on moving him to 2nd. The Reds have multiple options at every position that Francisco can play so he is expendable.
Brignac would provide more offense then Janish and the glove wouldn't be to far worse, and Francisco would give the Rays a viable option to replace Pena at 1B. (Though he's played 3B in the minors he's a butcher there and is more a LF/1B)
Posted by: schellis | October 14, 2009 at 01:57 PM
Can someone remind me why Jocketty traded for Rolan and his 11MM salary??
Oh wait... no one understood that trade in the first place...
Posted by: MLB in the Know | October 14, 2009 at 02:27 PM
I may be completely off-base, but wouldn't Orlando Cabrera make sense for the Reds? He's not gonna be a budget buster, he drives in runs, and his defense is still quality.
Posted by: aj7380 | October 14, 2009 at 02:30 PM
Well after the way he hit towards the end of the season and to get the twins to the playoffs I think the twins are gonna try everything to retain him.
I think the reds should try to get Marco. He'd help give rolen and Bphillips rest if they ever need it and he can play SS. I think they could use the multi position player like him.
Posted by: mewruler | October 14, 2009 at 02:37 PM
ThinkBlech,
There is not good time to trade Votto as he is that good. But the Reds are not going to win next year. If you trade him your likely to get 5/7 good players plus getting rid of say Taveras as well.
Posted by: dan l | October 14, 2009 at 02:50 PM
Votto isn't going to bring back a 5-7 player prospect package. Teams are valuing their prospects more and Votto plays a position where there are quite a few similar players. If he were a 2B, SS, C, or even a 3B there would be a large market for him...but even that wouldn't net the pay out you are expecting.
If you throw in buyer must take the black hole that is Taveras you'll be likely to get 2 maybe 3 quality prospects.
The Reds would be better served keeping Votto and letting Alonso get his feet wet in the minors hoping to drive up his value for a mid-season deal and then building around Votto/Bruce.
As for any FA the Reds simply do not have any available funds. Unless they bump payroll considerably even offering arbitration to Gomes/Nix/Bray will put them over the 09 payroll.
The Rolen trade was their big signing. And the horrible two year deals to Taveras and Lincoln haven't helped matters any.
In order for the Reds to be FA players they would need to move one of their high dollar arms without picking up any of the contract.
So the SS option needs to be a low service time option or someone brought in by trade with similar dollar figures, like Hardy for one of the pitchers.
Posted by: schellis | October 14, 2009 at 03:14 PM
"Some Reds fans have suggested going after Brignac of the Rays. I think a Juan Fransisco for Brignac deal would work for both sides."
I doubt that the Rays make that deal. Yeah, they have an abundance of middle infield talent with Bartlett, Zobrist, Aybar, Brignac, Rodriguez, and Beckham, but Francisco isn't really a fair return for such a good shortstop prospect, a rare commodity.
Francisco had issues with making contact and getting on-base in AA, and with his approach he's really not ready to play everyday at the ML level. Not to mention that the Rays are set on the corners with Longoria and Pena, at least for 2010, and Francisco's lack of patience probably wouldn't make his bat play well at first base yet.
If the Rays deal Brignac, presumably they'll target a young, near MLB-ready catcher, like say, Arencibia, Towles, etc.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 14, 2009 at 03:22 PM
"He's not gonna be a budget buster, he drives in runs, and his defense is still quality."
I don't know about that.
He posted a nasty -14.0 UZR this year, and his OOZ dropped from 51 and 57 in 2007 and 2008, respectively, to a below-average 35 this year.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 14, 2009 at 03:25 PM
I dont understand why Dusty batted Janish 2nd for what seemed like most of the year. Thats just putting an instant out in front of your run producers! Put Rolen and his 360 OBP there, heck even Hanigan could work there. You gotta get runners on base for Votto, Phillips, Bruce.
Stubbs
Rolen
Votto
Phillips
Bruce
Gomes
Hannigan
Janish
Pitcher
Now thats a lineup that will actually score some runs.
This will be a good build year to build off of for the Reds, but I just dont see them contending without Volquez...
Posted by: Pat Metzger | October 14, 2009 at 03:57 PM
To those thinking the Reds should, would, will, could, might trade Votto to get prospects or to make room for Alonso:
Think again. This guy is great. He was 5th in the NL in Average, 4th in OBP, 5th in slugging, and 3rd in OPS. And he is only 25. Why would the Reds trade away a great player who is already that good and that young just to give a shot to some prospect? He is also the hardest worker on the team, One of the best baserunners, and overall the base player. The Reds would have to be crazy.
Posted by: Ethanator99 | October 14, 2009 at 07:06 PM
I would be OK for the Reds to trade Harang or try to get O-Cab.
Posted by: Ethanator99 | October 14, 2009 at 07:09 PM
Could you see the Reds moving Votto to 3B or the OF and letting Alonso take over at 1B? I have both of them in a keeper league in ESPN
Posted by: Daniel | October 14, 2009 at 08:56 PM
I really don't think the Reds will do that. The Reds have a lot of outfielders and Scott Rolen at 3rd. They also have a lot of infield prospects in AAA. Alonso is probably trade bait once he starts to prove he can hit in AAA.
I just don't think the Reds would ever move Votto. This kid is really going to be something.
Posted by: Ethanator99 | October 14, 2009 at 09:24 PM
what major leaguer do you compare Alonso to?
Posted by: Daniel | October 14, 2009 at 10:17 PM
Like who do I think he'll be like once he gets to the Bigs?
Posted by: Ethanator99 | October 14, 2009 at 10:38 PM
The Reds aren't going to trade any SP, they don't have anyone to replace them. As for now Lehr and Miller (who you have on the rotation) won't be on this team (they don't have the offseason 40 man roster spots to waste on them. Which makes Maloney the defacto #5. They won't bring in any free agents unless they are on minor league deals. If anyone gets traded it's Alonso, Votto is quickly making himself the face of the franchise.
Posted by: Kinsm | October 15, 2009 at 04:19 AM
^I also don't see any chance Nix gets tendered a contract, with what they traded to get Balentien he has to stick arouind for a while.
Posted by: Kinsm | October 15, 2009 at 04:21 AM
By midseason 2010 the Reds will entertain offers for Harang if he is healthy and pitching well.
The Reds are at least 2 yrs away from being a force.So stop with the let's win now attitude.It ain't happening in 2010.
The Reds in MHO should stay away from stop gap 35 yr old players and be patient with:
Francisco(if he could be used as a trade piece so be it)
Alonso
Travis Wood
Daryl Thompson
The FA pitchers available in 2011 are a much better crop than what's being offered in 2010.
Be prepared for another not so great season in 2010.
Posted by: ToBe | October 15, 2009 at 08:05 AM
I still like the Rolen trade, he should be a big bat in the middle of the order and a clubhouse leader. Brignac to the Twins for #3 catcher Morales who as a rookie hit well and is blocked by Mauer. He could be a good fit in TB and Twins need a ss, not Cabrera who was average at best...
Posted by: Redbird | October 15, 2009 at 01:28 PM
I don't think you can write off a team out of hand that played the final fourth of the season at 27-13. Add to that they played the first half at .500 plus or minus a game or two either way.
Hernandez and Bruce both went down basically at the AllStar break and the team went into the tank for the next 5 weeks.
So, I think this is basically a .500 team for next year if they bring back the same cast but don't play Taveras. They have the potential to go on a run like they finished this season with. If they do that and avoid a corresponding black hole period, they could end up in the hunt for a playoff spot.
Posted by: OhioGuy | October 15, 2009 at 11:06 PM
In the last 1/4 of the season Cincinnati went 15-0 against teams like Pittsburgh and Houston.A minor accomplishment.
Rarely is there a carry over affect from one season to the next.
If the Reds play .500 ball in 2010 then maybe they're headed in the right direction.
Morales will replace the 39 yr old Redmond as the Twins backup catcher.Redmond is a FA.
I doubt the Twins trade Morales.
Posted by: ToBe | October 16, 2009 at 01:10 AM
CIN Gets: Clay Buchholz, Mike Bowden, Josh Reddick, Yamaico Navarro, Felix Doubront, and Casey Kotchman
BOS Gets: Votto, Harang and Tavares
Posted by: PaulJ | October 16, 2009 at 04:54 PM
Sorry, Forgot Lowrie
Posted by: PaulJ | October 16, 2009 at 04:57 PM
"CIN Gets: Clay Buchholz, Mike Bowden, Josh Reddick, Yamaico Navarro, Felix Doubront, and Casey Kotchman
BOS Gets: Votto, Harang and Tavares
"
I wouldn't make that trade. Votto is too valuable. If the Reds trade Votto anytime soon I'm offically boycotting the Reds.
Posted by: Ethanator99 | October 16, 2009 at 11:28 PM
Boy, just by reading this posts my IQ has dropped dozens of points. Joey Votto isn't going anywhere folks. Right now he is cheap on a team that lacks offense and he hit over .300 with 20+ homeruns and he is only going to get better. In fact, look for the Reds to give him an extension in a couple years, one that would make him the centerpiece of this team. A trade of Votto could never net an equal amount of talent in return, he is that good. I'd keep Votto over Alonso 10 times out of 10. Want to trade someone? Trade Alonso. Votto will be spending the next decade at least in Cincinnati.
Posted by: BigRedOne | October 20, 2009 at 11:46 AM
I wouldn't mind seeing the Twins make an offer for Harang or Arroyo, epscially if they can't sign Carl Pavano.
Maybe Jason Kubel and Glenn Perkins for Arroyo? Would Kubel be the "quality RBI Man" they are looking for?
Posted by: NickL1538 | October 31, 2009 at 01:28 PM
First and foremost, the Reds will probably do absolutely nothing in trades or free agency. They never really do. However, I'll bite and throw in what I think they should do. Keeping in mind, our team salary won't ever go beyond 80 million: Trade Cordero, eat a couple million on his salary, but trade him. Sign a cheap closer for about 2-3 million, like Zeigler from Oakland. Trade Arroyo and Harang, they are done. If you can't get rid of both, at least one needs to go. Don't bring back Hernandez, save the money. Get rid of Taveras at all costs! Give him away for an aging single A player, just get rid of him. Let Mike Lincoln go, just cut him. Okay, given this spread, it saves about 45 million, arbitration players like Gomes are due for a raise, but with 45 million freed up and even more if they can get rid of both Harang and Arroyo go after real talent..read on: Trade Alonso and maybe another prospect for Holliday. I'd also look into seeing what the Twins would ask for Mauer, he's due for free agency in a year. Also, I would see if Hanley Ramirez would want a mega deal to come to the Reds in a trade since he doesn't care much for Marlin's management. So, here's your lineup after trades, cuts and signings:
CF Stubbs/Dickerson
C Mauer
2B Phillips
SS Ramirez
1B Votto
LF Gomes
RF Bruce
3B Rolen
SP Holliday
SPs Holliday, Cueto, Bailey, (Harden), Volquez(half season), Maloney
Bullpen: Rhodes, Masset, Zeigler, Herrera, Fisher, Burton, Wells
Posted by: brucealmighty | November 13, 2009 at 12:02 PM
I've been a Reds fan since the BRM era,but I'm on shaky ground.What I would do is this--trade Harang,Rolenand Taveras.If possible,I'd send at least one of those to,say,Florida for Uggla.Then,move Phillips to short.For catcher,bring back either from last year.Hernandez DID have a nice bat for awhile.If either isn't an offensive posibility to start,look elsewhere.But,in order to contend,I'd keep Arroyo,Cordero,etc.Maybe Francisco at 3rd would be an unlikely bat.A healthy team,with a full season from Bruce and Votto,would also help.I can see both of them,if healthy,hitting AT LEAST 30 Hrs.Votto would add 30-40(or more) doubles,and well over 100 RBIs,as well as Bruce,Phillips.LF? Gomes--FULL-TIME STARTER. THERE'S your offense. Nice,huh? I'll give you a staff later.
Posted by: RedsNut | November 13, 2009 at 09:31 PM