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« Elias Rankings Update | Main | Projected Type B Free Agents »
Projected Type A Free Agents
Eddie will take a final pass-through before signing off on his projected Elias Rankings, but all 2008-09 regular season data is included in the latest update. Here's a list of the 31 free agents projected to have Type A status (an asterisk denotes an option):
Bobby Abreu
Jason Bay
Rafael Betancourt*
Orlando Cabrera
Johnny Damon
Mark DeRosa
Octavio Dotel
Jermaine Dye*
Brian Giles
Mike Gonzalez
John Grabow
Kevin Gregg
Vladimir Guerrero
LaTroy Hawkins
Matt Holliday
Orlando Hudson
John Lackey
Cliff Lee*
Victor Martinez*
Bengie Molina
Darren Oliver
Placido Polanco
Manny Ramirez*
Marco Scutaro
Rafael Soriano
Miguel Tejada
Jose Valverde
Billy Wagner*
Randy Wolf
We can remove Cabrera because he cannot contractually be offered arbitration, and we can assume the options for Lee and Martinez will be exercised. That leaves 27 players.
For the player, Type A status can be dangerous. If a Type A free agent is offered arbitration and declines, his new team has to give up a draft pick to sign him. The following teams would have to give up their first-round pick in 2010 if they sign a Type A free agent from another team who was offered and turned down arbitration: the Rays (#17), Mariners, Tigers, Braves, Twins, Rangers, Marlins, Giants, Cardinals, Rockies, Phillies, Dodgers, Red Sox, Angels, and Yankees. The teams not listed would have to give up their second-round pick.
If Holliday and Lackey sign with new clubs, those teams will presumably feel that the draft pick cost is acceptable. Beyond those two, the cost might be prohibitive, as it was with Jason Varitek and others last offseason. Last year, the Dodgers (Orlando Hudson), Mets (Francisco Rodriguez), Yankees (Mark Teixeira), Phillies (Raul Ibanez), and Angels (Brian Fuentes) were willing to surrender first-round picks.
Last winter's events might lead to a game of cat and mouse between players and teams this time around - teams will be less inclined to offer arbitration to their Type A free agents out of concern that those players will be more inclined to accept. If a player accepts arbitration, he's under that team's control for 2010 and the two parties will go to a hearing if they can't agree on a salary.
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Of course, for those teams not listed, while their first-round pick is protected, they would have to give up a second-round pick if signing a Type A. Such teams might consider not only the player involved but where they are in the draft order. For teams like the Nationals, Orioles, Pirates, Royals or Dbacks, the second-round pick is still high enough to give pause; for a team like the Reds or White Sox, maybe not so much.
Posted by: Steven J Berke | October 07, 2009 at 12:25 PM
I think it's also safe to remove Manny from this list with his $20M dollar player option. No one in their right mind will pay him more guaranteed money.
Posted by: carini26 | October 07, 2009 at 12:26 PM
So the Cubs snuck in to have their first round pick protected?
Since the cash isn't flowing, I like Hudson and Lopez. Thoughts?
Posted by: BDeitch | October 07, 2009 at 12:35 PM
That might be the weakest group of free agents that I can remember.
Posted by: OmegaMan | October 07, 2009 at 12:39 PM
So the cubs dont trade Harden to the Twins. Then he misses type A status. Wow. If the rumors are true that the Twins would have sent over a legit prospect, Hendry has lost his mind.
Posted by: chicubs25 | October 07, 2009 at 12:42 PM
I think Gregg and Gonzalez are hurt the most by being Type A's. People aren't sure if Gregg can close and their not going to give up a 1st round pick to a setup man. Same goes for Gonzalez.
Posted by: jtd | October 07, 2009 at 12:57 PM
How did Troy Glaus manage a Type A grade with only 14 poorly-played games at the major league level this season?
Posted by: Seals | October 07, 2009 at 12:59 PM
The biggest flaw with many GMs in sports is properly evaluating their own team and their own players. It was obvious the Cubs were not a playoff team this year for a few reasons. Altough, I see his side of it. High expectations and there is always the possibility of a team getting it together. Regardless, Hendry sould have traded Harden. It's almost a given Harden signs with a new team. I can see him getting 1 yr. and a second year with a club option.
Posted by: studio179 | October 07, 2009 at 01:04 PM
I'm pretty sure the system doesn't penalize players for time spent on the DL.
Posted by: stellar | October 07, 2009 at 01:09 PM
To answer my own question, I just saw where the ratings are based on two previous seasons.
Posted by: Seals | October 07, 2009 at 01:10 PM
Tejada went from type A with a score of 68 on Monday to None with a score of 50 today. Not that he is all that great but that seems like an odd drop over just the course of 2 days.
Posted by: Castor27 | October 07, 2009 at 01:11 PM
In order for the Sox to get Wagner to come to Boston, they had to waive their team option on him.
Posted by: bat the pitcher 8th | October 07, 2009 at 01:20 PM
Good point Steven, I added that to avoid confusion.
Wagner wanted the Sox to do that but they did not.
Castor, worried about Tejada, we will look into that.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | October 07, 2009 at 01:24 PM
Haha Tim, I'm not really worried about him, I don't see the Astros keeping him unless he takes a big cut and agrees to play 3rd. Just thought it was odd that he took such a nose dive after the Monday list was said to be pretty close to finalized. Not getting a hit in that playoff game yesterday must have really hurt his numbers!
Posted by: Castor27 | October 07, 2009 at 01:30 PM
Gotta be an error, we'll get to the bottom of it. I ran the numbers today, Eddie I think is in deep depression after last night's game.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | October 07, 2009 at 01:39 PM
Why do you only mention that surrendering picks for Holliday and Lackey would be acceptable and not Bay? Isn't he as obvious as the other two?
Also isn't Takashi Saito a type A? The Red Sox hold a club option, but have yet to excersise it.
Posted by: eephun | October 07, 2009 at 01:55 PM
"So the Cubs snuck in to have their first round pick protected?"
What a joke. $140M payroll and the get their first round pick protected while teams like Minn, TB, Fla, Texas and Colorado with FAR less payroll has to surrender a first rounder to sign a top free agent. Of all the things needed to be fixed with the draft this is probably #1.
Posted by: MPM | October 07, 2009 at 01:56 PM
Sure, Bay too.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | October 07, 2009 at 02:11 PM
This is an awful system, IMO. Glaus is an A, yet Brandon Webb is a B. Go figure.
"What a joke. $140M payroll and the get their first round pick protected while teams like Minn, TB, Fla, Texas and Colorado with FAR less payroll has to surrender a first rounder to sign a top free agent. Of all the things needed to be fixed with the draft this is probably #1."
So the teams with the lowest payroll should have their picks protected? That seems a little unfair to me. The teams with the worst records should have their picks protected, it helps to improve their team.
Posted by: jdub | October 07, 2009 at 02:18 PM
"So the teams with the lowest payroll should have their picks protected? That seems a little unfair to me. The teams with the worst records should have their picks protected, it helps to improve their team."
So you want to reward GM's that are bad at their jobs but penalize GM's that are good at their jobs? The high payroll should be enough to help improve the team. Plus draft picks are the life-blood of low payroll teams and will prevent them from signing a type A free agent.
Posted by: MPM | October 07, 2009 at 02:25 PM
I'm hoping Scutaro declines arbitration so he can hit the open market as a FA - I'm looking forward to seeing just how stupid MLB GMs can be. Any team that commits more than 5m to him is making a serious mistake.
Posted by: 92-93 | October 07, 2009 at 02:44 PM
Maybe it is worth mentioning that last year the Yankees signed 2 additional type A players (Sabathia and Burnett) but since they were lower in the Elias rankings than Texeira the Brewers and Blue Jays only got a lower round draft pick (#76 and #104 resp.) from the Yankees. Hard to tell who might be affected by that this year.
Posted by: leberquesgue | October 07, 2009 at 02:50 PM
---
Wagner wanted the Sox to do that but they did not.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | October 07, 2009 at 01:24 PM
---
FALSE. Wagner asked they not pick up his option or offer arbitration. He settled for only not picking up his option.
Posted by: bat the pitcher 8th | October 07, 2009 at 02:56 PM
SOURCE: http://bit.ly/BbtlL
Posted by: bat the pitcher 8th | October 07, 2009 at 02:57 PM
SOURCE: http://bit.ly/BbtlL
Posted by: bat the pitcher 8th | October 07, 2009 at 02:57 PM
"So you want to reward GM's that are bad at their jobs but penalize GM's that are good at their jobs? The high payroll should be enough to help improve the team. Plus draft picks are the life-blood of low payroll teams and will prevent them from signing a type A free agent."
Nothing prevents them from signing free agents but themselves. It's a risk vs. reward factor. Do you take the hit of losing a pick and sign the FA, or do you keep the pick and lay off the FA?
Small market teams won't pony up the cash to get an impact type A free agent anyways, they just simply don't have the money. Protecting small market teams' picks, if they are a good team like the ones you mentioned, would only make the good teams better, and the bad teams worse.
Posted by: jdub | October 07, 2009 at 03:24 PM
By the way, your system would mean that the Nats would not have their 1st round pick protected, and would forever be stuck in the basement of the NL East, if they decide to pursue FA's (which they have).
Posted by: jdub | October 07, 2009 at 03:33 PM
The Nats are where they are because Jim Bowden was one of the worst GM's the game has ever seen. The current system rewards the stupid and penalizes the smart. Protecting small market picks would not keep bad teams bad and good teams good. It would keep smart teams good and dumb teams bad.
Posted by: MPM | October 07, 2009 at 05:47 PM
In the event that a player has a club option and it is declined, can the team then offer arbitration or are they only able to do one or the other?
Essentially, using Jermaine Dye as an example (I'm not speculating at all), is Kenny Williams forced to pick up the club option OR decline and make Dye a free agent without the draft pick cost? Or, can Williams decline the option and then offer arbitration, saddling Dye with the additional draft pick cost?
Posted by: jcrinck | October 07, 2009 at 08:49 PM
"In the event that a player has a club option and it is declined, can the team then offer arbitration or are they only able to do one or the other?"
Yes, this is exactly the case with Wagner and Boston. Wagner would only accept the trade with a guarantee of Boston declining his '10 option, but Boston still has the ability to offer arbitration.
Posted by: carini26 | October 08, 2009 at 09:07 AM
As I look through and remove some errors, the following projected types have changed since this was posted:
Yorvitt Torealba from no type to B
Brian Schneider from B to no type
Brian Giles is B instead of A
Reed Johnson from B to no type
Gary Sheffield from B to no type
Fernando Tatis from no type to B
Mark DeRosa from A to B
Pedro Feliz from B to No Type
Posted by: ebajek85 | October 10, 2009 at 07:00 AM
I think the Braves will offer Gonzalez arbitration and let Soriano walk. Gonzalez' arbitration number would most likely be acceptable to the club ($5-7million) whereas Soriano would probably draw a number in the double digits.
Posted by: KC_Brave | October 10, 2009 at 11:55 PM