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By Tim Dierkes [October 28, 2009 at 3:21pm CST]
Next up in our Trade Market series, first basemen. We analyzed first base free agents here.
- Prince Fielder, Brewers. On October 7th, Brewers GM replied, "I don't see that happening" when asked about trading Fielder or Ryan Braun (Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reporting). What's more, SI's Jon Heyman expects the Brewers to attempt to lock Fielder up this winter. Fielder is already under team control through 2011, and there is no reason to expect him to be shopped (the Brewers have other trade chips with which they can acquire pitching).
- Adrian Gonzalez, Padres. Like Fielder, most Gonzalez trade rumors have been speculative. And Jed Hoyer knowing Theo Epstein doesn't really increase the chances of a trade to Boston. The Padres have a small payroll, but Gonzalez will only earn $10.25MM over the next two seasons. Hoyer even said long-term discussions are "on the docket." On the other hand, there were summer trade talks with the Mariners, Red Sox, and Dodgers under old GM Kevin Towers. Towers believes "it's just a matter of when" the Padres trade Gonzalez.
- Adam Dunn, Nationals. We haven't heard anything about Dunn being available, but it'd be reasonable for GM Mike Rizzo to listen. The Nats have Dunn signed for next year at $12MM.
- Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays. Currently, the Blue Jays have no plans to move Adam Lind to first base (says MLB.com's Jordan Bastian). If they change their mind, Overbay and his $7MM salary could theoretically be shopped.
- Jorge Cantu, Marlins. Here's a guy who's actually likely to be available this winter. The thinking is that the Marlins would prefer not to give Cantu an arbitration raise on his $3.5MM salary. Cantu traded some power for OBP this year.
- James Loney, Dodgers. More speculation...the Dodgers could consider trading Loney and his .399 SLG if they'd prefer more power at first base. Loney's salary is set to take a jump through arbitration this year.
- Ryan Garko, Giants. Garko is a non-tender candidate for the Giants, so it figures they'll try to trade him first. At the least, Garko handles lefties well.
- Casey Kotchman, Red Sox. Kotchman was an odd acquisition by the Red Sox, as they don't have much of a spot for him. He's similar to Loney but the asking price might be lower.
- Andy Marte, Indians. Marte's future with the Tribe is in doubt after a .232/.293/.400 performance in the bigs. He did slug .593 at Triple A this year.
- Mike Jacobs, Royals. Like Garko, a non-tender candidate. Jacobs spent most of the season as a DH.
yippee! a new batch of adrian gonzalez trade rumors coming. thanks Tim.
Posted by: agonzo23 | October 28, 2009 at 03:28 PM
mets should go for loney
Posted by: johan is GOD | October 28, 2009 at 03:31 PM
@ Johan
Who would the Mets send to the Dodgers? Doesn't seem like a good trade partner right now...
Posted by: bferb | October 28, 2009 at 03:35 PM
well if prince and adrian are not available, how about Jorge Cantu to the Orioles. Not a huge power threat but a Markakis type Rbi guy. It would make us a doubles factory with back2back 100 rbi guys. what do you think it would take to get him? Berken,albers/sarfate, d.hernandez work?
Roberts 50ish
Reimold 30full season
Markakis 40+
Cantu 40+
Jones 30ish? full season
scott 25 ish
weiters 25
wigginston/3b
isturzis/ss
Posted by: Orioles2025 | October 28, 2009 at 03:36 PM
Ok so since all the other sox fans seem to put up ridiculous offers for the best players in the league with just a few of our unproven prospects let me ask this
if there are any padres or brewers fans
or just anyone who knows
what do u think it'll REALISTICALLY take to acquire a-gon or prince?
Posted by: bosox21 | October 28, 2009 at 03:38 PM
they could use maine and a prospect, and the mets wanna free up a spot in the rotation to sign 2 good sp's this offseason
Posted by: johan is GOD | October 28, 2009 at 03:38 PM
The point was kind of that Gonzalez and Fielder are not available.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | October 28, 2009 at 03:40 PM
I think the Dodgers would do a Loney for Maine and a prospect swap, but I doubt the Mets would offer that.
Posted by: bferb | October 28, 2009 at 03:42 PM
I think the Red Sox like having Kotchman off the bench.
Posted by: PWHjort | October 28, 2009 at 03:44 PM
Oh I got that tim, I was just curious to what it would actually take to get one of them if they were available
Posted by: bosox21 | October 28, 2009 at 03:44 PM
Vottos available, for the Right price. Felix, Lester, Lincecum..ect...just to silence those who keep trying to get Votto for nothing.
Posted by: GmblngPtchr20 | October 28, 2009 at 03:44 PM
Adrian Gonzalez will go to the Red Sox and that is a given.
Nobody in their right mind would trade Fielder but the way MLB is structured he will have to be traded eventually.
The Yankees will get him as a full time DH.
Isn't MLB fun!
Posted by: Hellion | October 28, 2009 at 03:46 PM
Ok so since all the other sox fans seem to put up ridiculous offers for the best players in the league with just a few of our unproven prospects let me ask this
if there are any padres or brewers fans
or just anyone who knows
what do u think it'll REALISTICALLY take to acquire a-gon or prince?
Posted by: bosox21 | October 28, 2009 at 03:38 PM"
It depends on if the Padres really think Blanks is a middle of the order bat or not.
1. Buchholz, Dent, and Weiland.
2. Anderson, Reddick, and Bowden
3. Kalish, Bard, and Bowden
Something like that
Posted by: 661dodgerblue | October 28, 2009 at 03:46 PM
Red sox trade kotchman for stephen drew.
Sox trade: bowden,anderson,Pimentel,reddick,navarro
reds trade: bruce,votto
Posted by: harrison | October 28, 2009 at 03:47 PM
If the Mets did go after Loney and didn't like the price I could see them going after Kotchman from Boston. He wouldn't cost much and he is a great defensive first baseman who was having a decent year in Atlanta with the stick. He doesn't give you much power but he can hit for a decent average.
Posted by: redsox22 | October 28, 2009 at 03:48 PM
i think the mets would do that. loney for maine and someone like dylan owen or nick evans. The mets are considering moving maine to the pen, and want an upgrade in the rotation
Posted by: johan is GOD | October 28, 2009 at 03:49 PM
I think the Dodgers would do a Loney for Maine and a prospect swap, but I doubt the Mets would offer that.
Posted by: bferb | October 28, 2009 at 03:42 PM"
Maine should not be in the rotation, the Dodgers have no one to fill in at first and Loney is still young enough to think he can grow as a hitter.
Posted by: 661dodgerblue | October 28, 2009 at 03:49 PM
what is the liklyiness that the red sox trade for prince this offseason? will the brewers even trade him?
Posted by: harrison | October 28, 2009 at 03:50 PM
I would prefer to let Murphy continue to develop than to go after Kotchman or Loney. I wouldnt give up Maine for Loney.
Posted by: jaydh2 | October 28, 2009 at 03:52 PM
Harrison: Were you kidding...because if so then disregard my next statement.
YOU......ARE.......STUPID.
Why would the D'backs even consider trading stephen drew who, 2 years ago, was considered one of the best young SS in baseball? He hasnt really broken through yet but he is still young and worth a hell of alot more than kotchman.....
Posted by: Mickey Mac | October 28, 2009 at 03:52 PM
ok then, what would it take for the mets to get loney? Because I think loney who is a great defender would be perfect fit for the mets and their shaky D
Posted by: johan is GOD | October 28, 2009 at 03:53 PM
i wouldnt mind something like loney and a bullpen pitching for F-mart
Posted by: johan is GOD | October 28, 2009 at 03:55 PM
Red sox trade kotchman for stephen drew.
Sox trade: bowden,anderson,Pimentel,reddick,navarro
reds trade: bruce,votto
Posted by: harrison | October 28, 2009 at 03:47 PM"
Good god man.
Posted by: 661dodgerblue | October 28, 2009 at 03:55 PM
for gonzalez or fielder, neither will be had for less than an ace type power prospect and middle order type bat prospect plus 2 others
Posted by: Orioles2025 | October 28, 2009 at 03:58 PM
Daniel murphy is a pretty good defender last year and that wwas without playing the position before.
With seasoning he would better. Don't forget that murphy came up as a offensive presence this year should be better with the bat.
If we are to trade for anyone it should be for a carlos lee and then sign lackey or we should trade for a halladay or zambrano and sign matt holliday. Fixing those hole are more important the first base.
Posted by: beastOftheEast | October 28, 2009 at 04:00 PM
I would love if the brewers traded us prince,and corey hart and/or matt gamel.
Sox trade: Bowden,reddick,anderson,pimentel,Weiland maybe buchholz. we get prince.
then sox trade kotchman for hart.
Posted by: harrison | October 28, 2009 at 04:01 PM
"Sox trade: bowden,anderson,Pimentel,reddick,navarro
reds trade: bruce,votto"
Do you want Jocketty to be ridiculed to the point of suicide or something?
"1. Buchholz, Dent, and Weiland.
2. Anderson, Reddick, and Bowden
3. Kalish, Bard, and Bowden"
I think that it would cost more to land Gonzalez.
Buchholz has emerged finally, it seems, but still, Gonzalez is a beast and he's going to be awfully cheap for the next two seasons.
I think that something based around your second suggestion is most realistic, although honestly, I think that the Padres could do better elsewhere if the Red Sox aren't willing to improve their offer beyond that.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 28, 2009 at 04:03 PM
the sox arent getting prince if bucholz and reddick arent the centerpieces. Maybe something like bucholz, reddick, bowden, and pimentel
Posted by: johan is GOD | October 28, 2009 at 04:03 PM
"Sox trade: bowden,anderson,Pimentel,reddick,navarro
reds trade: bruce,votto"
Holy crap.....I was so preocuppied with the drew/kotchman trade that I didnt even notice this one which is infititely worse....
Posted by: Mickey Mac | October 28, 2009 at 04:04 PM
"Felix, Lester, Lincecum..ect...just to silence those who keep trying to get Votto for nothing."
Votto is a good young hitter, but no way would he match up on a one for one trade with any of those pitchers, especially Hernandez. Besides if someone calls the Reds asking about Votto's availability then the conservation would end with a lot of laughter.
"what do u think it'll REALISTICALLY take to acquire a-gon or prince?"
Realistically it starts with Buchholz, Westmoreland, and Reddick. Then 2 from a group of Navarro, Pimentel, Dubrount, and Kalish.
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | October 28, 2009 at 04:05 PM
Realistically, Theo would have to hand their GM a list of prospects and tell him to circle about 5 or 6
Posted by: bferb | October 28, 2009 at 04:16 PM
Jorge Cantu to the Braves makes a bit of sense as he is a RHB 1B with good power and would be reasonably priced as he is only under control for one more year and is getting up there in salary.
Reyes, Gearrin and Spruil might get it done and that may be even be too much depending on your opinion of Spruil's potential.
Posted by: bbxxj | October 28, 2009 at 04:17 PM
The only way the Reds trade Votto would be for another team's entire roster. Votto and Bruce are the cornerstones to the franchise that will lead the Reds back to the world series.
Posted by: BigRedOne | October 28, 2009 at 04:20 PM
The only way that I think Loney is traded is if it is for a 1B with more power(as part of a package). Something with the Pads or Brew Crew(Agon/Fielder). I dont think either will be traded, but both those teams would take a guy who hits around 290, 90RBIs, lowered his strikeout rate and increased his walk rates, and is at LEAST average with the glove. Like I said, he'd be part of a package, but he'd be a big piece, IMO.
With the Mets, I wouldnt take Maine for Loney. Loney is established, who has performed well in the postseason(349 career average), even if he has substandard power for a 1B(although he has the frame for power, just hasnt found it yet). Maine, meanwhile, doesnt seem to be a starter. He seems like he is a pen guy. In 99 games(96 starts), he has a 4.22 ERA, a 1.304 WHIP and an ERA+ of 101. No thanks...
There was one proposal, Loney and a pen guy for Fmart. Im curious what Fmart is expected to become(I know he was your top prospect a few years ago, but I believe he struggled in the majors this year). Also, which pen guy are you talking about? A Broxton type(HELL NO) or a Belisario type..?
Posted by: lakersdodgersyankees4life | October 28, 2009 at 04:22 PM
Guys, before bashing Harrison please remember he's only 15! Take it for what it's worth.
Posted by: Red Sox Dynasty | October 28, 2009 at 04:23 PM
Realistically it starts with Buchholz, Westmoreland, and Reddick. Then 2 from a group of Navarro, Pimentel, Dubrount, and Kalish.
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | October 28, 2009 at 04:05 PM
this is probably the most realistic proposal i have seen on this site. basically most of the names that the red sox media machine has been telling the country are "untouchable" (stupid concept when you think about trading the inherently unknown commodities of prospects for one of the games best young hitters and 1B).
Tim,
if my sarcasm seemed to be an attack on you or the site, i apologize. admittedly i was kind of excited to see a new thread on adrian gonzalez (among others) to preoccupy me from more important things today. rolling my eyes at awful trade proposals from random fans throughout the country is a hobby of mine. i mask this shameful trait with self-deprecating sarcasm.
Posted by: agonzo23 | October 28, 2009 at 04:25 PM
Kotchman to Mets for Purnell!
Posted by: Red Sox Dynasty | October 28, 2009 at 04:25 PM
I see it being harder to pry Gonzalez from the Padres then getting Fielder from the Brewers. Not that either will happen but since the Brewers have a more realistic shot a contending if they can add pitching they may be tempted with the right deal. San Diego doesn't (or shouldn't) have any immediate ambitions for the playoffs so I don't see them being in a hurry to move AGon to fill needs. That all sounds backwards doesn't it? Move Fielder to improve your chances and keep AGon since you don't have a chance? Maybe I'm wrong but I just see the Brewers being more likely to deal out of necessity. No doubt they'd deal Gamel before Fielder though so it's just not likely to happen.
Posted by: pageian | October 28, 2009 at 04:25 PM
"Jorge Cantu to the Braves makes a bit of sense as he is a RHB 1B with good power and would be reasonably priced as he is only under control for one more year and is getting up there in salary.
Reyes, Gearrin and Spruil might get it done and that may be even be too much depending on your opinion of Spruil's potential."
Yeah, I could see a deal like that happen, although obviously Teheran and Delgado should be totally off-limits.
And by the way, for any Braves fans, John Sickels has begun posting his 2010 Top 20 Prospect Lists, and the Braves were one of the first, here's the link: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/10/25/1100362/atlanta-braves-top-20-prospects
Posted by: scribbletone | October 28, 2009 at 04:26 PM
I wouldn't give up much of anything to get Cantu (certainly not Zeke Spruill). I hope the Braves just re-sign LaRoche.
Posted by: BravesAllTheWay | October 28, 2009 at 04:27 PM
I think that it would cost more to land Gonzalez.
Buchholz has emerged finally, it seems, but still, Gonzalez is a beast and he's going to be awfully cheap for the next two seasons."
I agree 100 percent, I was gonna mention that Exposito, Navarro, Doubront(Who I really like), Almanzar, and Huntzinger would be in the discussion as the 4th and 5th players in those deals. Rizzo and Middlebrooks would also be good additions.
Posted by: 661dodgerblue | October 28, 2009 at 04:34 PM
"I wouldn't give up much of anything to get Cantu (certainly not Zeke Spruill). I hope the Braves just re-sign LaRoche."
As he said, it depends on what you think of Spruill. He's one of their best young pitchers, along with Delgado, Teheran, Minor, Kimbrel, Hoover, Hale and DeVall, and honestly, now that I think about it, I'm not sure that the Marlins could realistically expect any of the first four guys I just mentioned, along with Spruill.
Maybe something like Cole Rohrbough, Scott Diamond and Angelo Paulino for Cantu?
Posted by: scribbletone | October 28, 2009 at 04:36 PM
I'd be really surprised to see Theo deal Buchholz or Bard. Kelly and Westmoreland are fair game.
Could a package built around those two work?
Posted by: soxcurse | October 28, 2009 at 04:46 PM
I have a feeling that the Loney we saw the last two seasons is the Loney we'll see for the next two, BUT I think the Dodgers should still give him another season to prove himself. His bizarre home/road splits and his performance in Sept/Oct merit giving him a year to get it together.
Posted by: surfacetear | October 28, 2009 at 04:48 PM
"Could a package built around those two work?"
If the Red Sox are willing to package together Kelly and Westmoreland, they can land essentially any player available on the market, there's not a team in baseball that would be willing to offer a package that could match their upside.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 28, 2009 at 04:50 PM
"Could a package built around those two work?"
Kelly and Westmoreland have the best potential of all Sox prospects, at least until Renfroe is evaluated on a pro level. I'd be very surprised to see both of them gone from the Sox system in any trade.
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | October 28, 2009 at 04:56 PM
Guys, before bashing Harrison please remember he's only 15! Take it for what it's worth.
Posted by: Red Sox Dynasty | October 28, 2009 at 04:23 PM
------------------------------
I won't be 15 for another 8 months or so, but I can tell when a trade is completely one-sided.
I do like Harrison, though. He not obnoxious with his biased proposals like alot of people on this site.
Scribble,
Thanks for that link on the top 20 prospects, it was really informative.
Posted by: WS2009 | October 28, 2009 at 04:57 PM
Yeah I agree with your list of Braves pitching prospects.
Diamond, Ortango, D. Delgado and Redmond could all be trade fodder as marginal prospects. Randal Degado, Teheran, Hoover, Hale, Kimbrel, and Minor are likely not going anywhere unless in some sort of huge Tex-like deal. Spruil is very talented but was disciplined this year for undisclosed reasons and Rohrbough is very talented but has had confidence issues this year.
So I would put Reyes out there as the MLB ready starter, Spruil/Rohrbough as the risk upside chip, and one of filler starters mentioned above as depth. Such a package should be fair return for one year of Cantu.
Posted by: bbxxj | October 28, 2009 at 04:57 PM
Daric Barton should be on this list, Oakland has Carter, Wallace, Dolittle....any number of 1Bmen in waiting. Come June Barton wont have a job in Oakland unless he's hitting .325 and even then, his value will be sky high but he'll still be available.
Posted by: PL | October 28, 2009 at 04:59 PM
What's a fair package for Gonzalez outside of dealing Buccholz or Bard? These two have roles they need to fill this upcoming year along with bigger jobs in the forseeable future; we just cannot deal either of them.
I think Kelly would have to be included, no?
Posted by: soxcurse | October 28, 2009 at 05:02 PM
I highly doubt the Red Sox would package Kelly and Westmoreland together. They have basically said they are both off limits. I agree that if we want to try and acquire Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez we would have to most likely give up one but still they wont be offering up both of them.
Posted by: redsox22 | October 28, 2009 at 05:10 PM
"Red sox trade kotchman for stephen drew.
Sox trade: bowden,anderson,Pimentel,reddick,navarro
reds trade: bruce,votto"
terrible proposals. but then again thats a typical red sox post on this site
Posted by: Timmy B | October 28, 2009 at 05:11 PM
I dont think the Red Sox or Yankees get Prince or A-Gone, because those teams' prospects are slowly going the way of the Mets ones aka HUGE media hype by media that has no idea what its talking about, or is deliberately hyping mediocrity to boost value (happened with the Mets, see the Johan Santana trade. They literally traded 4 bad but hyped prospects for one of the best in the game).
Like seriously, Kevin Correia looked like an ace in SD, Brett Tomko could probably put in a serviceable year there, point is ANYONE can pitch there. Prolem is that no one can really hit there. Adrian is a rare beast who can hit in SD....and SD needs to sign him to a foreverandforever contract.
Posted by: PL | October 28, 2009 at 05:11 PM
"Daric Barton should be on this list, Oakland has Carter, Wallace, Dolittle....any number of 1Bmen in waiting. Come June Barton wont have a job in Oakland unless he's hitting .325 and even then, his value will be sky high but he'll still be available."
I wouldn't be surprised if Wallace started out at third at least when he comes out, although he obviously won't end up playing there for long.
Carter and Doolittle certainly will emerge at some point, but I think that it's more likely that Cust is dealt to free up the DH spot for Wallace or Carter than Barton, who showed some pretty good ability in 2009 and is better defensively than any of the other guys, although it's unclear what Wallace will be able to do as a first baseman.
Any team looking for a young 1B should definitely look Barton's way though.
What about maybe some sort of deal that exchanges Barton and another piece for Reid Brignac, because Pena's contract runs up after next season and the Rays don't have any potential replacements in the system.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 28, 2009 at 05:13 PM
if the Mets were to pick up any of these first basemen it would be Loney
Loney for Pelfrey
Kotchmen for Parnell is decent
Garko or Jacobs for Maine is nice too. Any thoughts?
Posted by: nymets86 | October 28, 2009 at 05:24 PM
"I dont think the Red Sox or Yankees get Prince or A-Gone, because those teams' prospects are slowly going the way of the Mets ones aka HUGE media hype by media that has no idea what its talking about, or is deliberately hyping mediocrity to boost value (happened with the Mets, see the Johan Santana trade. They literally traded 4 bad but hyped prospects for one of the best in the game)."
Humber was rated #73 in BA's 2007 Top 100, Gomez was rated #52 in the 2008 Top 100, and Guerra was rated #35 in the 2008 list as well.
They certainly weren't on the level of Buchholz/Ellsbury/Hughes at the time, but these guys certainly weren't regarded as bad prospects as the time of the deal, which is what really matters.
And it's still hard to hold that one against Minnesota, Johan's NTC destroyed their leverage, although obviously they turned down superior offers (they offered Lester!!) before accepting the Mets'.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 28, 2009 at 05:27 PM
personally, i think the widespread perception that anybody can pitch at SD but nobody can really hit there is often grossly exaggerated. while the numbers are certainly skewed negatively against hitters and positively for pitchers, it is still pretty easy to tell who can hit and who can pitch - even at Petco. when weighing personnel decisions, i don't think management expects bad pitchers to thrive at petco and good hitters to struggle.
Posted by: agonzo23 | October 28, 2009 at 05:28 PM
"If the Red Sox are willing to package together Kelly and Westmoreland, they can land essentially any player available on the market, there's not a team in baseball that would be willing to offer a package that could match their upside."Posted by: scribbletone
They'll never get Adrian Gonzalez if those two are the major pieces in a trade! If their new general manager is going to trade the most popular and the best player on the team (and young and affordabe for two more seasons) he's is going to have to do better than a couple of A ball players - no matter how much upside they have. Trading Gonzalez for only prospects will look like Hoyer is just doing his old boss a favor.
Red Sox will need to include several young major league or major league ready players starting with Bucholz, Bard and some others though I think the Padres will ask for Lester or Pedroia as a centerpiece in exchange for Gonzalez.
FYI, there seems to be a lot of diferent opinions about Westmoreland and how well he projects. Apparently, some organizations like him a lot while others don't.
Posted by: bernie | October 28, 2009 at 05:32 PM
"I think the Padres will ask for Lester or Pedroia as a centerpiece in exchange for Gonzalez."
You're kidding, right? If Hoyer asks for Lester or Pedroia in exchange for Gonzalez then Theo hangs up. Pedroia is one of the top 5 second basemen in the majors and Lester is emerging as staff ace. Not to mention both were recently signed to team friendly extensions.
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | October 28, 2009 at 05:39 PM
"Red Sox will need to include several young major league or major league ready players starting with Bucholz, Bard and some others though I think the Padres will ask for Lester or Pedroia as a centerpiece in exchange for Gonzalez."
Pedroia and Lester are both better players than Gonzalez, I'll take an elite 2B or an elite lefty starter over an elite slugging 1B anyday, especially when the former two are under team control for longer.
"FYI, there seems to be a lot of diferent opinions about Westmoreland and how well he projects. Apparently, some organizations like him a lot while others don't."
I don't know, but I haven't heard a single scout that isn't impressed by his tools and upside, even if he's raw and mostly projection at this point.
"They'll never get Adrian Gonzalez if those two are the major pieces in a trade! If their new general manager is going to trade the most popular and the best player on the team (and young and affordabe for two more seasons) he's is going to have to do better than a couple of A ball players - no matter how much upside they have. Trading Gonzalez for only prospects will look like Hoyer is just doing his old boss a favor."
Well, obviously those two wouldn't be the only pieces in the deal, and while it might look like Hoyer is doing Epstein a favor, he could potentially be setting up San Diego to land a Colon-like haul of superstar-upside talent, something that San Diego's farm system is lacking in, beyond Donovan Tate.
Kelly should start next season in AA, and while Westmoreland only played in A ball, he showed a pretty good approach at the plate while hitting quite well, he should be in AA by the end of 2010.
If the Padres deal Gonzalez, they need to get potential stars in return, and Kelly and Westmoreland are those kinds of players.
Something like Kelly, Westmoreland, Bowden and Kalish could be a very solid offer.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 28, 2009 at 05:40 PM
If the Red Sox offered up Westmoreland and Kelly I guarantee you the Padres would accept that but the Red Sox won't offer up that much. I hope the Red Sox dont try and trade for one of these guys this offseason. I really think we need to just let some of these minor leaguers develop more and let guys like Lars Anderson boost their stock back up. I dont want to see the Red Sox trade away Kelly, Westmoreland, Exposito, or Fuentes these guys we can build around in the future but I recognize the fact that we do need to trade away some of our key prospects to acquire guys who can help us win another world series. I think the Red Sox should wait this year out and try and win with Lowell and Ortiz and then after this year they will be off the books and they will have even more money to spend and the prospects will be even more developed.
Posted by: redsox22 | October 28, 2009 at 05:48 PM
I'm glad the ridiculous Fielder trade speculation is being downplayed finally. The Brewers are in "go for it" mode for next year with Melvin's talk of acquiring at least two pitchers to bolster the rotation. Ripping out the heart of the order by trading Prince would render any pitching acquisitions moot.
Posted by: Invader3K | October 28, 2009 at 05:49 PM
"If their new general manager is going to trade the most popular and the best player on the team (and young and affordabe for two more seasons) he's is going to have to do better than a couple of A ball players"
Posted by: bernie | October 28, 2009 at 05:32 PM
agreed. if one of the prospects mentioned were closer to justin upton and hanley ramirez (once in a lifetime prospects), then we might be talking. but upton was ready to taste the bigs at 19, and ramirez had about 600 ABs in AA ball before the Sox could really score something big for him (and Sanchez at AA).
experts in the game claim the jump for players is much bigger from A to AA, than from AA to AAA. this is a big deal to consider when contemplating hypothetical trade proposals. Single-A players rarely hold much value in a trade for big leaguers, and they certainly aren't likely to be the primary centerpiece in a trade for one of the top young MLB proven position players.
the padres would need at least one or two kids ready to play now (Buchholz, Bard, Ellsbury, etc.).
Posted by: agonzo23 | October 28, 2009 at 05:49 PM
so fielder is out of the equation for the giants
Posted by: giantspandaman24 | October 28, 2009 at 05:59 PM
"If the Red Sox offered up Westmoreland and Kelly I guarantee you the Padres would accept that but the Red Sox won't offer up that much."
Yeah, I'd like to clarify that while a Kelly/Westmoreland headed package would be a good deal for the Padres, I would be shocked if Epstein let that kind of deal go down. That organization seems to be really, really fond of those two prospects.
"the padres would need at least one or two kids ready to play now (Buchholz, Bard, Ellsbury, etc.)"
Honestly, if Ellsbury was a difference-maker in a Gonzalez/Fielder deal, I would include him.
The Red Sox can sign a stopgap guy like Cameron, or maybe even see what Reddick can do as the center fielder.
But if the Red Sox can get away with offering something like Ellsbury, Bowden, Kalish and Pimental, that could be a great move by Boston, if it means keeping Buchholz, Bard, Kelly and Westmoreland.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 28, 2009 at 06:00 PM
"Loney for Pelfrey"
Actually I like that, but I am very biased with Loney and I would say no, LOL.
I believe Loney will not be any worse than what he did this year, and that is fine for the next two years. I really think they should throw Loney in the fire and bat him third in ST and the beginning of the season. Joe Torre was throwing all kind of crazy lineups out there this season. To be honest I rather have Loney batting 3rd than Manny/Ethier/Kemp.
I do not Fielder or Gonzalez.
Fielder is too expensive for the Dodgers unless someone else buys the team with the intention of winning with expense.
Gonzalez is cheap but Coletti would have to give up Loney plus prospects, and I think the prospects would have to be E. Martin/Gordon/Lindblom/Elbert and something more.
Way too much for the Dodgers right now.
Posted by: 661dodgerblue | October 28, 2009 at 06:10 PM
Loney for Pelfrey
Kotchmen for Parnell is decent
Garko or Jacobs for Maine is nice too. Any thoughts?
no, no and no.
Posted by: jaydh2 | October 28, 2009 at 06:19 PM
"I believe Loney will not be any worse than what he did this year, and that is fine for the next two years. I really think they should throw Loney in the fire and bat him third in ST and the beginning of the season. Joe Torre was throwing all kind of crazy lineups out there this season. To be honest I rather have Loney batting 3rd than Manny/Ethier/Kemp."
Torre should focus on learning that Furcal doesn't belong in the lead-off spot given the way he's been playing.
Getting Furcal out of the leadoff spot is more important than who bats third.
And honestly, I would want Kemp batting third, I think that he could absolutely blow up next season.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 28, 2009 at 06:29 PM
scribble, I give Furcal ST to prove he is completley healthy after back surgery. That type of surgery can take a year to completley heal...
"I believe Loney will not be any worse than what he did this year, and that is fine for the next two years. I really think they should throw Loney in the fire and bat him third in ST and the beginning of the season. Joe Torre was throwing all kind of crazy lineups out there this season. To be honest I rather have Loney batting 3rd than Manny/Ethier/Kemp."
Why? Why would we have Loney hit 3rd instead of Kemp, Ethier or Manny? Ethier has been our steadiest hitter over the last 2 years, Kemp is possibly our most pure hitter and Manny is, well, Manny. I think the suspension and the hammy issues just destroyed this year. I think he comes back strong to try to get a DH spot after next year...
"Loney for Pelfrey
Kotchmen for Parnell is decent
Garko or Jacobs for Maine is nice too. Any thoughts?"
No. Pelfrey had a 1.5 WHIP this year, an ERA of over 5, an ERA+ of 83. His career ERA+ is 83, Career WHIP is 1.489, and ERA of 4.58. Why the hell do we trade for him again?
Posted by: lakersdodgersyankees4life | October 28, 2009 at 06:37 PM
"Actually I like that, but I am very biased with Loney and I would say no, LOL."
I know every Dodgers fans will start screaming at me for this, but what the hell. I'm not sure why Dodger fans are still high on Loney. Sure he had a great half season 2 years ago, but since then he's put up the worst OPS (.764) of regular first basemen. Sure he's gotten 180 RBIs in that time, but again he's in the bottom third of regular first basemen. No matter the potential he showed in 07 I still come back to 2 years as, to put it kindly, a subpar bat at a position that requires serious production.
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | October 28, 2009 at 06:48 PM
"No. Pelfrey had a 1.5 WHIP this year, an ERA of over 5, an ERA+ of 83. His career ERA+ is 83, Career WHIP is 1.489, and ERA of 4.58. Why the hell do we trade for him again?"
Because you're using some pretty poor indicators of performance.
He posted a solid 4.50 xFIP this season, an improvement on his 4.70 mark from 2008, and he still has some room for improvement, if his command or offspeed stuff can take another step.
I wouldn't trade Loney for Pelfrey, but he certainly has value.
"I know every Dodgers fans will start screaming at me for this, but what the hell. I'm not sure why Dodger fans are still high on Loney. Sure he had a great half season 2 years ago, but since then he's put up the worst OPS (.764) of regular first basemen. Sure he's gotten 180 RBIs in that time, but again he's in the bottom third of regular first basemen. No matter the potential he showed in 07 I still come back to 2 years as, to put it kindly, a subpar bat at a position that requires serious production."
Yeah, it's going to get more difficult to justify Loney's salary increases if he doesn't improve upon his power, he can get on base and make contact pretty well, but a .118 ISO is pretty unacceptable for an everyday first baseman on a contender.
Posted by: scribbletone | October 28, 2009 at 06:55 PM
"Red sox trade kotchman for stephen drew.
Sox trade: bowden,anderson,Pimentel,reddick,navarro
reds trade: bruce,votto"
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
That could only happen in a Video Game. One that has some sort of Virus.
The only way the Reds trade Votto would be for another team's entire roster. Votto and Bruce are the cornerstones to the franchise that will lead the Reds back to the world series.
Posted by: BigRedOne | October 28, 2009 at 04:20 PM
Thank you BigRedOne. I feel like I've been fighting that battle alone.
Posted by: Ethanator99 | October 28, 2009 at 07:05 PM
I agree with you on Ellsbury. If he could get us either Gonzalez or Fielder I would include him in a heartbeat. Cameron would be a good stop gap or they could get someone like Rajai Davis or as you said give Reddick a chance.
Posted by: redsox22 | October 28, 2009 at 07:07 PM
F-Mart and another B prospect for Loney and Belisario. F-Mart is still considered the mets top prospect, and by the way the mets farm isnt as bad as ppl say. They have a load of talent in the lower minors, and some draft picks and international signings emerging ( Ike Davis, Jenry Mejia, Brad Holt, Wilmer Flores, Jeyrus Familia.)
Posted by: johan is GOD | October 28, 2009 at 07:40 PM
F-Mart and another B prospect for Loney and Belisario. F-Mart is still considered the mets top prospect, and by the way the mets farm isnt as bad as ppl say. They have a load of talent in the lower minors, and some draft picks and international signings emerging ( Ike Davis, Jenry Mejia, Brad Holt, Wilmer Flores, Jeyrus Familia.)
Posted by: johan is GOD | October 28, 2009 at 07:40 PM
That looks like the Dodgers are getting ripped off.
Posted by: Ethanator99 | October 28, 2009 at 08:13 PM
Belisario is too good and cheap to be dealt right now.
SWP, I don't blame you for asking that question. Next year will determine if the Dodgers commit to him for the long haul or not.
Posted by: 661dodgerblue | October 28, 2009 at 08:16 PM
"Sox trade: bowden,anderson,Pimentel,reddick,navarro
reds trade: bruce,votto"
Holy crap.....I was so preocuppied with the drew/kotchman trade that I didnt even notice this one which is infititely worse....
Posted by: Mickey Mac | October 28, 2009 at 04:04 PM
Ha. Drew for Kotchman is stupid too. I was distracted by the Votto one.
Posted by: Ethanator99 | October 28, 2009 at 08:20 PM
I'm not sure about this trade proposal but, papelbon for drew and montero of arizona?
Posted by: harrison | October 28, 2009 at 08:43 PM
"I'm not sure about this trade proposal but, papelbon for drew and montero of arizona?
Posted by: harrison | October 28, 2009 at 08:43 PM"
as a fellow red sox fan, i don't think the both clubs will approve this trade.
Posted by: nick21 | October 28, 2009 at 08:57 PM
661Dodgerblue,
Have noticed in several above posts that you have mentioned Ryan Dent and Wil Middlebrooks from the Sox system as people that you like. While both of those gentlemen were drafted as high bonus products by the Sox system a few years ago, they have not done much to show their ability until the 2009 system and not sure that even Jed Hoyer would be all that inclined in SD to be willing to have them included as pieces in any Gonzalez trade, the Sox have mu;tiple middles IF prospects superior to especially Dent in Navarro, Derrick Gibson and probably even Oscar Tejada.
Weiand would be a young pitcher teams would be after more than likely, but of young pitchers from A Ball, imagine 19 year old Stolmey Pimental's name, followed by Alex Wilson would go 1 and 2, followed by Weiand and then Stephen Fife and then the bounty they have at the GCL and 1/2 season NYP league, not counting Doubtront, Bowden and Tazawa, plus Madison Younginer, Kendal Volz and a couple others that they picked up this year that did not get a chance to pitch (Wilson did).
Posted by: johns | October 28, 2009 at 08:58 PM
What bout papelbon to cubs for fox,haupuair,guzman,and marmol?
Posted by: harrison | October 28, 2009 at 08:59 PM
Papelbon isn't worth that much.
Posted by: Ethanator99 | October 28, 2009 at 09:10 PM
were do you come up with these?
Posted by: lakersdodgersyankees4life | October 28, 2009 at 10:05 PM
How about Nick Green for Hanley Ramirez?
Posted by: redsox22 | October 28, 2009 at 10:24 PM
"How about Nick Green for Hanley Ramirez?"
C'mon now, really... we're giving up waaaay too much. The Marlins will have to pay Hanley's salary.
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | October 28, 2009 at 10:36 PM
well we could take on josh johnson too if they need us too maybe cameron maybin too depending on if theo asks alot for green.
Posted by: redsox22 | October 28, 2009 at 10:41 PM
Cubs probably don't trade Marmol stright up for Papelbon. Marmol near min. Paps $10+mil...
Posted by: Lilkenny | October 28, 2009 at 10:54 PM
"Cubs probably don't trade Marmol stright up for Papelbon. Marmol near min. Paps $10+mil..."
You mean the guy who was initially passed over as closer in favor of Kevin Gregg then put up a near 8 BB/9 rate this year. Yeah, enjoy that delusion.
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | October 28, 2009 at 11:17 PM
"Cubs probably don't trade Marmol stright up for Papelbon. Marmol near min. Paps $10+mil..."
You mean the guy who was initially passed over as closer in favor of Kevin Gregg then put up a near 8 BB/9 rate this year. Yeah, enjoy that delusion.
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | October 28, 2009 at 11:17 PM"
I don't know if he was basing that off the money, but he has a point and his point is the Cubs payroll is a joke.
Posted by: 661dodgerblue | October 29, 2009 at 12:10 AM
Clearly you all have forgotten the biggest trade chip of all: Ty Wigginton. Mr. Wigginton is a real veteran. Despite playing for terrible teams like the Pirates, Devil Rays, Astros, Orioles, and the Mets, he's still managed to put up great numbers. For instance, in 2006, he led the Devil Rays in RBIs. Other players who led their team in RBIs that season: Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, and David Ortiz.
You know what else Wigginton is good at? Not clogging up the bases. He only walked 23 times in 436 plate appearances - even Mike Jacobs managed to walk almost twice that much.
So he can clear the bases and he doesn't clog them up. But what about defense? Well, Wigginton is a Gold Glove candidate at 1B, to follow in the exalted footsteps of that magician with the glove, Rafael Palmeiro. He's so good defensively, the O's played him at shortstop. You know who else played shortstop for the O's - Cesar Izturis! He's just that good.
Seriously, Wigginton is a great trade candidate for a team that needs a big bat, like... the Braves. Jason Heyward would be a satisfactory return - we'll even eat half of his salary, just for fun :-)
Posted by: ugen64 | October 29, 2009 at 02:56 AM
I really liked Ty Wiggington prior to this year and when the Astros declined his club option to 2009, was surprised that teams needing a 3B like the Twinkies didn't go out and get him, then seeing how abysmal he was during the 2009 season with the Orioles it became apparent.. The guy has really, really lost an awful lot since going to the 'Stro's and when you can't even find a starting jobe with the Orioles and put up horrendous numbers there? Wow.
I don't see any value in him, switch hitter and all, he is due 3.5M in 2010, for a corner OF, 3B backup and if a team wants a guy that at least performed last year at 1/2 the price (and plays far more positions, got for KC 7 position utility guy Willie Bloomquist who is only due 1.5M next year.
Not sure if Wiggy is just getting old, or if he just got all out of whack in Houston, but he is a shell of his former self.
Posted by: johns | October 29, 2009 at 07:08 AM
I can't believe that some people feel that Loney can be had for Maine and a dinky prospect. That is ridiculous. The Dodgers are shallow at 1B, especially in the farm and Loney is there for the future. He has only improved each year in the bigs, still young, and they think that he can develop power in his stick. He plays average/above average defense and is capable of .280+ and 100RBI's. That for Maine and a prospect? Please.
As for the "reaslistic" proposal for Prince or AGon, I would say something like Buccholz, Kelly, Westmoreland, Reddick and Kalish gets it done. Really though, Theo will just give them a list of prospects and have them choose 5 or 6 of them. I could also see Buccholz, Westmoreland, Reddick, Kalish, and two of either Bowden, Pimintel, Exposito or Navarro depending on team wants/needs.
Posted by: worldchamps08 | October 29, 2009 at 09:47 AM
The reason this deal will never get done is because there is no way Theo will offer up that much and I dont blame him. A lot of these prospects like Kelly, Westmoreland, and Exposito have been solid in the minors and each of them could fill a hole for the Red Sox in the next few years. Gonzalez would be great for the Red Sox but we can afford to wait until he becomes a free agent or look towards a different direction that doesn't cripple our minor league system as much. I really think we should hold onto Buccholz he had a very solid second half and finally looks comfortable and confident. We should explore trading with people using players such as Josh Reddick, Ryan Kalish, Michael Bowden, Lars Anderson, Yamaico Navarro and other minor leaguers with high upside at a postion where we have some depth at in the lower levels.
Posted by: redsox22 | October 29, 2009 at 10:33 AM
if it takes buchholz then,
sox trade: kotchman,buchholz,anderson,bowden,pimentel.
brewers trade: Prince feilder,and either two of these guys, gamel,hart,hardy.
if they want buchholz and elsbury then,
sox trade: buchholz,elsbury,kotchman,anderson
brewers trade: prince,hart,gamel
I would definetly trade elsbury if we had to.
Posted by: harrison | October 29, 2009 at 12:05 PM
Harrison why would the Brewers give up all that talent? That deal is bad.
They give up 3 players, 1 has monster value, 1 is above average Short stop who had a bad season, and 1 is either their starting RF or their top hitting prospect.
Posted by: 661dodgerblue | October 29, 2009 at 12:38 PM
Trade Ellsbury resign Damon, right? LOL
First full season in the Majors for Ellsbury in CF, I rate an A. Im not trading him.
Posted by: Cyyoung | October 29, 2009 at 12:40 PM
cyyoung, what would ur package look like for prince fielder? I think i have the general idea on what it would take for prince, but i need some help.
Posted by: harrison | October 29, 2009 at 06:40 PM
If you wanted to get Prince Fielder you would most likely have to give up Buccholz, Kelly, Reddick, and maybe someone like Exposito.
Posted by: redsox22 | October 29, 2009 at 07:49 PM
okay then,
buchholz,reddick,bowden,anderson for prince then?
Posted by: harrison | October 29, 2009 at 09:16 PM
Any chance Hochevar with a couple other guys might be enough for the Royals to make a legitimate offer for Adrian Gonzalez?
Posted by: Grover'sRoyals | October 30, 2009 at 10:41 AM