Cardinals, Boras Discuss Holliday Deal?

Don't take this into too much account. This is probably an attempt to see how many years Holliday would like and how much discount he would give for more years. That's approximately 16 million a year, which isn't low-balling him by THAT much, but it is still Scott Boras, so it will ultimately get refuted.

"Boras will want more years and a higher annual salary."

The man never ceases to amaze me.

I'm surprised the Cards started off with a 6 year deal. I figured they'd try shorter term with a higher average salary.

$16MM a year does seem a little low for Holliday, considering he made $14MM this year. I think a 7yr/$119MM would catch Boras' eye, or a 6yr/$114MM

I just hope Bill Dewitt opens his wallet and pays albert the money he wants when the time comes. And if signing Holliday to a six to seven year contract helps lock up pujols, then by all means sign this man.

how about 5-years, $100M?

I would put the chances at 0% that Holliday even considers taking a contract from STL before testing free agency. Unless its a flat out ridiculous/Mark Teixeira-esque offer.

I pray that Holliday signs with TEE for say, $150M/7years

This will be an interesting to see how much money is floating around this off season. To me $20M per year for Holliday is insane. If the Yankees and Red Sox aren't in the market for him I can't imagine anyone else coming close to those numbers. For the vast majority of teams that would be tying up over 20% of your payroll on one guy. Historically that hasn't been a good formula for building a well rounded quality team.

Mr. Punch, I agree that Holliday should not get that $100M contract, but the comparison you used is foolhardy. Using your single-season logic, I can prove that JD Drew is as good as Hank Aaron.

Try looking at their entire careers:
Per 162 games played, Holliday averages 109 runs scored, 29 HRs, 112 RBI, and 15 SBs.
Per 162 games played, Drew averages 103 runs, 26 HRs, 85 RBI, and 10 SBs.

Now, that seems pretty close...until you figure in that you're going to get that in one season from Holliday, who plays 150+ games per season. It's going to take Drew about 1-1/3 seasons to put up those same numbers, because he only plays about 120 games per season.

So...Holliday is, according to the numbers, worth quite a bit more than Drew. If the market will bear $14M for Drew, we can expect the market to bear $18-20M for Holliday.

IMO, it would be smart to FRONTload Holliday's contract. Pay him more while he's producing, because I guarantee he will start to drop off the closer he gets to 35. As a matter of fact, I bet his age 32 season (2012) will be the last in which he hits 20+ HRs.

Tex has hit plenty in band boxes of stadiums, but he has also hit a ton in Atlanta and Anaheim. Holliday has not proved he is capable of building an offense around, Tex has done that while playing in Atlanta. Not to mention Tex's glove is game changing, meaning the plays he makes on defense can effect the outcome of a game. While Hollidays glove is adequate, it is not gold glove caliber or game changing. He makes the plays he is expected to make and nothing more. If he was that good of an outfielder he wouldn't be in left field.

and PS......stealing an average of 12 bases of a year isn't exactly what we call "speed".

Matt Holliday is a great player......but he is not a franchise player. Scott Boras is a baseball genius and shoots for the stars when looking to get contracts for his agents. So if he is saying he is worth Tex money, he obviously knows he is inferior to him and is trying to drive up the price. Come on guys have you seriously not caught on to the Boras deal at this point?

I am not trying to take anything away from Holliday, but he isn't on Mark Teixeiras level, defensively or offensively. And baseball GM's think the same. Look at the packages the Braves gave up and the Angels gave up compared to what the A's and the Cardinals gave up and that will answer your questions abotu who is valued more!

Mr. Punch.

Those numbers are very limited representations, and cover a very small sample size. Some think Drew's contract is too rich. But according to fangraphs, he earns his winshares each year. Holliday isn't much more than a Drew player. Just a higher average, but they both have similar OPS numbers, and both are valuable hitters in any lineup. Drew is leaps and bounds better defensively. Holiday is above average, but he won't be playing anywhere other than Left Field throughout his career. Drew can play all 3 outfield positions, and play each very well.

Anything north of 6 years, 120 is too much for Holliday, and I would have mixed feelings if they offered him that much.

Of coarse I know that JD Drew is made of glass. Of course that makes Holliday more valuable. They are however similar players w/ similar (not identical) skill sets: Holliday a better AVG hitter and Drew a superior defender at a more important position.

I thought the comparison was interesting in that Sox fans were clamoring for the front office to just get rid of Drew and his $14M a year over the summer, yet Holliday is shooting for Teixeira money.

People hate Drew for his frailty (myself included), but is there such a thing as predictability when you are signing a player well into his 30s?

Holliday is a great player, but he scares me as a major FA signing. He is looking for a contract taking him into his age 36-37-38 season. If his AVG drops into the .280 range (not hard to imagine at all), and his power declines as he ages, his contract will look terrible.

.280/.350/.430 with 17 HRs at $18-20M? Ugggg

They should, but they won't. I think the Yankees start with a 7/$140M offer, and then increase their total offer by $10M for each week that Boras waits before responding.

A contract like this would make me nervous if I was STL. I don't like very many players age 36 and beyond, just seems like alot of risk when a more affordable jason bay is out there who plays almost as well (better in playoffs) and has shown he can hit without protection in the lineup

I really can't figure out Holliday's worth really. He had some great years in Coors, but he has not played all that hot since he was traded. He was pretty horrid in the AL and not overwhelming for the Cards. If you told me last year he was worth 18+ million I'd say sure. But now, I'd be hard pressed to offer more than 16 or 17. His drop in power (2 years running) and LD percentage is a bit worrying. And his defense is not getting any better.

I think people are on the right track saying that a smart club might be better off signing other guys for cheaper, shorter salaries in this case. I'd rather target a guy like Damon or Abreu. Similar skills at the plate, eat the runs on the field, replace the difference with the extra 10 million lying around each year.

Holliday isn't as valuable as Tex for many reasons.

1) Not nearly as much power
2) Single-handed hitter
3) Hasn't hit without either Coors or Albert Pujols helping him along. All those pitch arounds on Pujols meant Holliday was bound to see better pitches.

That said, I don't see where defense is changing this. Teixiera's defense is spectacular when he is on, but he is also inconsistent with it. Take a look at his PM numbers and they support up and down trends in his UZR numbers. Further, Holliday is not merely "adequate" in LF, he is actually damn near elite there. Both UZR and PM support this, and that is without taking into account the fact that UZR underrates Holliday's arm.

I don't think Holliday is as good as Tex, but he is probably better than Bay. Also, he is not an inferior defensive player to Drew. No one knows how Holliday would play in RF, because he hasn't been tried there. Further, Drew has been essentially worth exactly his contract, so I don't see how Holliday can't be worth more. And I have been a huge critic of Holliday's being overrated.

I agree with Yanks09 even though they are a yankees fan haha

@ Tater16

Who cares if Albert leaves? Your not smart.