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Odds & Ends: Giants, Bay, Rockies, Padres

By Luke Adams [November 1, 2009 at 12:34pm CST]

Here are a few Sunday links to browse, as a huge sports day in Philadelphia begins....

John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle wonders if the "desperate-for-pop" San Francisco Giants will try to top the Boston Red Sox rumored four-year offer to Jason Bay (we heard some speculation about this yesterday too). If not, Shea names Garrett Atkins as a cheaper potential target for the Giants.
SI.com's Jon Heyman discusses Bay and Matt Holliday in his latest column. Heyman points out that although Bay's agent, Joe Urbon, refers to him as the market's "most complete" player, Urbon keeps tying Bay's value to Holliday's. Scott Boras is avoiding doing the same thing for his client, instead comparing Holliday to the $180MM man, Mark Teixeira.
Within the same column, Heyman mentions progress being made on contracts for Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd and manager Jim Tracy, suggesting something could be announced after the World Series.
New San Diego GM Jed Hoyer has reportedly offered Red Sox farm director Mike Hazen the Padres' assistant GM position, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
Baseball Prospectus's John Perrotto reports (via Twitter) that there's no chance Pittsburgh Pirates prospects Pedro Alvarez and Brad Lincoln will be called up to the majors before at least June of next year.
DRays Bay looks ahead to this winter's free agent reliever market. If you missed it, check out MLBTR's analysis of the market for closers, as well as for both lefty and righty relievers.
Casey Kelly and the Red Sox have to decide soon whether the 20-year-old prospect will continue his career as a pitcher or shortstop, according to Sean McAdam of the Boston Herald. Given Kelly's minor league numbers to date, it seems like a no-brainer that the team will want to move him back to the mound.
Roch Kubatko of MASN.com tries to sort out the Baltimore Orioles' 40-man roster.

Comments

Holliday is a 180 million dollar man? That is a joke right? The only way he should ever make 180 million dollars is if he is planning on signing for 15-20 years and can go on the juice say around year 8 of that deal to prolong his above average career. He can't throw very well, plays a awful left field, not good hands, and despite his good average (which I agree is stellar) is not some big time threat of power unless put in the right ball park. See Oakland for details.

Posted by: jaybuck | November 01, 2009 at 12:58 PM

A pre-2009 Atkins to the Giants would be great for them, but what was the deal with him last year? Was he injured? Distracted? Or is he done? Hitting .220 in Colorado does not bode well...

Posted by: openid.aol.com/mikor2 | November 01, 2009 at 01:03 PM

Bay's agent is funny. Yeah he's the most complete FA, if you dont count defense.
But wait- the ASSISTS and lack of ERRORS!!1

Posted by: Deanezag | November 01, 2009 at 01:11 PM

Holliday is a well above average LF who provides good, not great, power (oakland is one of the biggest pitcher's parks). No he's not going to get 180M that's Boras just starting preliminary negotiations exceedingly high but he does deserve something close to 5 years 100 million

Posted by: bravesfan22193 | November 01, 2009 at 01:23 PM

You have to think the Giants are quiet players for Holliday as well, they came out of nowhere for Zito, they could do the same with Matt.

Posted by: PL | November 01, 2009 at 01:29 PM

i hope they are not doing the same thing with zito that they did with holliday. they would make the same mistake. greatly overpay for an ok player.

Posted by: friscofan101 | November 01, 2009 at 01:49 PM

I could see the Yankees as suitors for Holliday. No natural left fielder, and with Matrsui and Damon's contracts off the books, that frees up 26 million(if memory serves correct). I really don't see how a team like the Yankees will go into the 2010 season without a true threat in the outfield...outfielders, specifically corner outfielders are supposed to be your big hitters, and I don't really believe the Yankees will go into next season with a Damon(if resigned), Swisher, and Cabrera/Gardner/Jackson outfield.

Posted by: defense | November 01, 2009 at 01:55 PM

defense: You bring up a good point. Although Damon on a one year deal is not bad. If they signed Holliday, I think this lineup could work...

1. Jeter
2. Cano
3. A-Rod
4. Texeira
5. Holliday
6. Posada
7. Swisher
8. DH? (Alternating guys)
9. Melky/Gardner/Jackson

That gives a righty, lefty, righty, switch, righty, switch, switch hitter 1-7. Who knows with the Yanks.

Posted by: MrMet | November 01, 2009 at 02:14 PM

Holliday = elite player in his prime.

Zito = declined every year since 2002.

Posted by: PL | November 01, 2009 at 02:21 PM

"Holliday = elite player in his prime."

Yeah, if "elite" equates with that great play vs. the Dodgers in the ninth inning of the second game of the playoffs...

Posted by: Bob Raines | November 01, 2009 at 02:31 PM

@ Mrmet...Cano could never hit second in that lineup sucessfully, he puts the ball in play and would create quite a few to many DPs. His average is high but his numbers with RISP are horrible. I hope he does turn the corner and becomes the "batting champion of the future" like you hear so often.

Posted by: Maddoniz | November 01, 2009 at 02:35 PM

"Holliday = elite player in his prime."

Yeah, if "elite" equates with that great play vs. the Dodgers in the ninth inning of the second game of the playoffs...

Posted by: Bob Raines | November 01, 2009 at 02:31 PM

Bad idea to post that, man. You're gonna get killed because it was a "small sample size."

Posted by: soxfan93 | November 01, 2009 at 02:40 PM

defense- Yankees had the #1 offense this year- while missing ARod for 5 weeks. Why do they NEED to add Holliday instead of Damon/Matsui? They dont.

Posted by: Deanezag | November 01, 2009 at 03:04 PM

"He can't throw very well, plays a awful left field, not good hands, and despite his good average (which I agree is stellar) is not some big time threat of power unless put in the right ball park. See Oakland for details."

Are you kidding? Holliday is a well above average left fielder.

And Bob, come on, it was one play. Why would you even bring that up as a serious argument?

Posted by: R y a n | November 01, 2009 at 03:15 PM

""He can't throw very well, plays a awful left field, not good hands, and despite his good average (which I agree is stellar) is not some big time threat of power unless put in the right ball park. See Oakland for details."

holliday is certainly not a bad outfielder. to judge by 1 play in the postseason is ignorance. and in a pitchers park in oakland with barely any protection at all hollidays #'s obviously were going to drop. put him in the middle of a lineup with a good offense and he certainly will produce like he is capable of

Posted by: Timmy B | November 01, 2009 at 03:35 PM

"Holliday = elite player in his prime."

Yeah, if "elite" equates with that great play vs. the Dodgers in the ninth inning of the second game of the playoffs...

Posted by: Bob Raines | November 01, 2009 at 02:31 PM

Albert Pujols has gone hitless in multiple games before, should he lose his elite status as well? Both are equally ridiculous statements

Posted by: bravesfan22193 | November 01, 2009 at 03:53 PM

If we are doing a MLBTR poll on Holliday's defense, count me among the "Holliday is a terrible OF" crowd (despite what Boras, fangraphs, and UZR say). I know that I am not going to convince the statheads that take UZR as gospel, nevermind that it was created for infielders and does not account for throwing ability at all. hence, Hawpe who has one of the best arms in RF is among the worst ranked OF to UZR, yet Holliday is great despite not being able to hit the cut off man.

more fun with UZR: Tori Hunter is one of the best OF of the decade, yet not very good acc to UZR. JJ Hardy is also apparently a better SS than Jimmy Rollins.

Posted by: agonzo23 | November 01, 2009 at 04:15 PM

how do you qualify that Hunter is one of the best OF of the decade defensively? Because espn and sportscenter tells you? or is it the web gems? neither of which indicates defensive skill

Posted by: bravesfan22193 | November 01, 2009 at 04:19 PM

Neither Bay or Holliday will ever win the Gold Glove award. Or even come close. But that's not what some team is going to pay them to do.

If Sabean can top the rumored 4/60 offer from Epstein I wonder if it will be in years or dollars per year.

Posted by: kdub | November 01, 2009 at 04:25 PM

how do you qualify that Hunter is one of the best OF of the decade defensively? Because espn and sportscenter tells you? or is it the web gems? neither of which indicates defensive skill

Posted by: bravesfan22193 | November 01, 2009 at 04:19 PM

whoa there, easy little fellow. agressive much?

while not an indisputable measure of defensive ability like UZR (heavy sarcasm here people), i think EIGHT straight gold gloves is a pretty good starting point.

and i promised myself i would never respond to the braves fans on this site. hint: speculation from writers that Kelly Johnson is going to be non-tendered generally means that other GMs also recognize this and will not therefore be looking to KJ as even a throw in to any trades. that is if any GMs had any interest in the first place for a 28 y.o. who just hit .220 (but i'm sure Batting avg. also has no value whatsoever either).

Posted by: agonzo23 | November 01, 2009 at 04:40 PM

Jeter won gold gloves.

Bobby Abreu won a gold glove.

Gold Gloves are a much, much worse indicator of how good a defensive player is.

And are you really surprised if JJ Hardy is a better DEFENDER than Rollins? Hardy is excellent at SS.

Posted by: R y a n | November 01, 2009 at 04:48 PM

How is Atkins a good idea for a team with the need for offense? Oh wait Brian Sabean runs the Giants. Jason Bay would need help in SF, so unless they have a list of guys to come in.. he is not the answer.

Casey Kelly shouldn't be playing in the field anymore, it is obvious he will pitch and the only thing that can happen is him getting hurt playing SS.

Posted by: 661dodgerblue | November 01, 2009 at 04:57 PM

sigh. i can see this conversation going nowhere fast. GG is not indisputable evidence, as i'm sure you noticed that i acknowledged. but GG are voted by managers and coaches, who both get to see a huge sample of players all year before and during games, and the voters have a huge number of scouts to rely upon. under these conditions, Hunter won EIGHT of the awards (possibly a 9th on the way).

Almost as equally important as a glove for SS, is having a rocket arm. Rollins has both tools much better than Hardy. this is not a case of Palmeiro getting a GG at 1B when primarily playing DH.

but yeah, fangraphs rulez! you guys win.

Posted by: agonzo23 | November 01, 2009 at 04:59 PM

Casey Kelly will be pitching full time starting next year.

Neither Matt Holliday or Jason Bay are "complete" or "elite" players. They are very good players. 4 years and $60M is overpaying Jason Bay, 5 years and $90M is overpaying Matt Holliday. I hope that the Sox are foolish enough to go any higher than they already have to resign Bay.

Posted by: Blackcourt | November 01, 2009 at 05:08 PM

661,

How would Bay NOT help the Giants? They won 88 games without him...say he's good for 5 more wins....93 wins EASILY puts the Giants in the running for the NL West. Then any team has to face Lincecum / Cain in the playoffs.

Bay wouldn't make the Giants a sure WS contender, but a 30 HR guy helps ANY team.

Don't forget slow Molina is being replaced with a Golden Spikes winner and the guy who just won Minor League player of the year.

Posted by: 55saveslives | November 01, 2009 at 05:18 PM

agonzo23- your reasoning is hilarious. Gold Gloves are a joke. You think maangers/coaches really care who they vote for? They vote based on reputation. Just because someone makes diving catches or robs HRs does not give them good range in the OF, its just small sample sizes that get stuck in your brain that you remember.
i love how you said you arent going to try to convince statsheads that holliday is bad in the OF- because you CAN'T, all you're going to say is that my EYES tell me he's bad and that he missed a cutoff throw.

" who just hit .220 (but i'm sure Batting avg. also has no value whatsoever either)."

If his OBP was up around .360 then his AVG wouldnt matter, unfortunately his OBP this year was .303

Posted by: Deanezag | November 01, 2009 at 05:23 PM

"Almost as equally important as a glove for SS, is having a rocket arm. Rollins has both tools much better than Hardy. this is not a case of Palmeiro getting a GG at 1B when primarily playing DH."

Rollins is a horrible player at the plate and mediocre in the field. JJ Hardy has much more value because of his defensive skills.

Posted by: Blackcourt | November 01, 2009 at 05:48 PM

The Yankee's will not be signing either Matt Holliday or Jason Bay. Neither help the Yankee's long term. Not that they get him, nor am I proposing a trade, but the Yankee's need to find themselves a Jason Heyward caliber player. A top tier young, cheap, OF'r. They may have it with Jackson, but I'd like to see if they could get another of this profile.

Yankees will resign Matsui to a 1yr deal at around $4mm maybe with bonus for offensive production. They can use him for 1 more while they cultivate the young talent in AAA. Damon may be the man out on this one. Like the guy quite a bit, but just don't see it at this point, plus he is an A in the FA market.

Holliday or Bay do make sense for SF. I could certainly see Bay signing there. I have no idea for how much. It does seem like anything more than 4 for $60mm would be too much and $90mm for 5 for Holliday..

As for the comparison btw Teixeria and Holliday, I completely disagree. Although the offensive production could be compared, to an extent, they are completely different players overall and defensively, Tex is an A to Holliday's C Neither Bay or Holliday are franchise caliber players. Tex is. Tex will likely be given the nod by Jeter in 2 or 3 years. Tex will be in year 3 or 4 of his contract and only 32/33. That's money..

Posted by: TheDugout | November 01, 2009 at 06:14 PM

"but the Yankee's need to find themselves a Jason Heyward caliber player."

Jason Heyward has proven 0 in the majors, and if he hit .230 in his first month you'd have all the 'fans' saying trade him for Player X.

Posted by: Deanezag | November 01, 2009 at 06:18 PM

"As for the comparison btw Teixeria and Holliday, I completely disagree. Although the offensive production could be compared, to an extent, they are completely different players overall and defensively, Tex is an A to Holliday's C Neither Bay or Holliday are franchise caliber players. Tex is. Tex will likely be given the nod by Jeter in 2 or 3 years. Tex will be in year 3 or 4 of his contract and only 32/33. That's money.."

Teixeira wasn't worth the kind of money he received either. Doesn't mean he isn't a good player, but he isn't a $20M+ per year guy. Yankee fans will be regretting the signing in his final three years the same way they regretted signing Jason Giambi.

Posted by: Blackcourt | November 01, 2009 at 06:20 PM

whoa there, easy little fellow. agressive much?

while not an indisputable measure of defensive ability like UZR (heavy sarcasm here people), i think EIGHT straight gold gloves is a pretty good starting point.

Posted by: agonzo23 | November 01, 2009 at 04:40 PM

Nate McLouth won a gold glove in 08 as arguably the worst defensive CF in baseball (in 08), that's all you need to know about the voting process.
As for KJ i agree he has little to no value but teams will likely see a guy that had a BABIP 64 points below his career average and see that he should return to his 07 and 08 numbers which were above average for a 2B

Posted by: bravesfan22193 | November 01, 2009 at 06:40 PM

"I know that I am not going to convince the statheads that take UZR as gospel, nevermind that it was created for infielders and does not account for throwing ability. . ."

Not sure what you are talking about, UZR actually does account for a players throwing ability under ARM. Holliday has put up ARM values of 0.6, 0.4, -2.3 over the last three seasons, equating a -0.4 average. His ARM has brought down his fielding rating a bit overall but his Range Runs Above Average more than make up for it.

By the way John Dewan's +/- system backs up UZR and has given Holliday a positive rating.

Posted by: recca | November 01, 2009 at 06:42 PM

@Agonzo
You say statheads as if it is a bad thing to analyze player performance to determine value. I rather be the stathead who formulates a statement that is backed by facts than the fool who makes claims off of notably flawed philosophies (ie. batting average, gold gloves, perceptions).

Posted by: recca | November 01, 2009 at 06:48 PM

"Not sure what you are talking about, UZR actually does account for a players throwing ability under ARM. Holliday has put up ARM values of 0.6, 0.4, -2.3 over the last three seasons, equating a -0.4 average. His ARM has brought down his fielding rating a bit overall but his Range Runs Above Average more than make up for it."

UZR is far from perfect. It has no way to measure how hard or soft a ball was hit, the balls trajectory or the field of play where the ball was hit. Its about as good as defensive metrics get... but I wouldn't bank on it being entirely accurate.

Posted by: Blackcourt | November 01, 2009 at 06:54 PM

No statistic is entirely accurate. In order to prove a point it is always better to use multiple tools to base your claim.

On Base Percentage is not an entirely perfect statistic but combine that with OPS, wOBA, WPA, etc. and you begin to paint a better a picture of a player's offensive talent.

Defense is the same way, is UZR pefrect? Nope. Combine UZR with +/- and RZR and your argument is boosted. Holliday is viewed as an above average defender under all these systems.

Posted by: recca | November 01, 2009 at 07:11 PM

often, trying to have a conversation in here feels like trying to have a conversation with a dining room table.

Posted by: agonzo23 | November 01, 2009 at 09:04 PM

Feel free to provide evidence for your side agonzo. Making statements against the person instead of the argument doesn't help your cause.

Posted by: recca | November 01, 2009 at 09:11 PM

"You say statheads as if it is a bad thing to analyze player performance to determine value."

Observing stats is fine and dandy and I have no qualms about that, I do as well to some degree, but there are several users here who spout some of that gibberish here who I doubt from their posts who even bother to watch many games, except for the ones inwhich their own favorite teams play in and that is just idiotic.

It is impossible to get a full take on a players true value on defense, offense just from taking these values from these values, unless you actually lay "eyes" on as many of these players as often as you can and I don't care how many different analyses you use.

How do you think scouts, GM's etc did it 20, 30 years ago? They did not have Bill James, fangraphs and all these other "wonderful" places on the net to go to with one click and did just fine.

Now we have all of these geniuses quoting God like abilities here with *STATS* that can instantly define how good/bad a player is and some here saying "you should NEVER" post about a person's rbi total" in a post to some of these users, and I have seen some of guys do this, don't deny it either.

Stat freaks, HA!

Posted by: johns | November 01, 2009 at 11:00 PM

I never saw Babe Ruth play, but I can honestly say that he is the greatest hitter in baseball history. How did I do this? I looked at his statistics? Am I less right because I didn't actually see him play? I would think not. Defense is obviously a lot different form offense.

Your third paragraph makes no sense. You see Bill James used statistics to show that the scouts, managers, owners,fans, etc. were wrong with there analysis. Bill James were proving nearly century year old baseball philosophies completely wrong. It wasn't until the Moneyball era (the era we are in) that teams began to use more advanced ways in determining player value, game strategies, etc. Similarly teams began realizing that using old methods to value player defense (visual perception, fielding percentage, errors) was flawed. They then started constructing metrics which better estimated a players defensive skill. Range Factor was a major building block which led to other stats including UZR. The GM of the Mariners,Jack Zduriencik, used advanced defensive metrics to assemble one of the best defensive teams in baseball history.

Posted by: recca | November 02, 2009 at 12:25 AM

lol agonzo23/Barney Frank.

So saying Holliday is a good defender for his position and using stats to back that up is like comparing Obama to Hitler?

Posted by: dregarx | November 02, 2009 at 12:42 AM

Lokks like Kelly is a pitcher. One stat I do look at is K'S to the number at bats. At least for now. Again, better to see what kind of hitter Kelly is, but for the moment, only thing I have to go by. 49 K'S for 162 AB'S.

Posted by: Cyyoung | November 02, 2009 at 09:54 AM

"Your third paragraph makes no sense. You see Bill James used statistics to show that the scouts, managers, owners,fans, etc. were wrong with there analysis."

Wow Recca. You mean to tell me that baseball GM's, scouts and all other forms of intelligence gathering was wrong for the 1st 100 years?

You just proved my point exactly... Thank you...

Posted by: johns | November 02, 2009 at 10:44 AM

No that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that a lot or most of the forms of intelligence gathering was wrong.

It wasn't until Bill James' baseball abstracts came along where people began questioning the evaluation and game play methods others were using. The people who followed Bill James' teachings were called sabermetricians and this period of time was called the sabermetrics revolution. I suggest you pick up some of James' Baseball Abstracts and begin reading them. Moneyball by Michael Lewis isn't a bad place to start either.

Posted by: recca | November 04, 2009 at 03:58 PM

All I know is this. If the Giants DO decide to spend big bucks on a free agent, they need it to be someone who is a true difference maker. Someone like Tejada, Figgins, or Atley won't cut it. I'd be happy with either Bay or Holliday- just as long as it doesn't turn out to be another Barry Zito/ Steve Finley/ Ryan Garko type acquisition.

Posted by: bayareasportsdude | November 08, 2009 at 09:54 PM

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Odds & Ends: Giants, Bay, Rockies, Padres

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