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Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins
Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Twins. Their likely commitments for 2010:
C - Joe Mauer - $12.5MM
C - Jose Morales - $400K
1B - Justin Morneau - $14MM
2B - Alexi Casilla - $428K
SS - Nick Punto - $4MM
3B - Brendan Harris - $466K+
IF - Matt Tolbert - $405K
IF - Brian Buscher - $413K
LF - Delmon Young - $1.152MM+
CF - Denard Span - $435K
RF - Michael Cuddyer - $8.5MM
OF - Carlos Gomez - $438K+
DH - Jason Kubel - $4.1MM
SP - Scott Baker - $3MM
SP - Nick Blackburn - $440K
SP - Kevin Slowey - $440K
SP - Glen Perkins - $430K
SP - Francisco Liriano - $430K+
Other candidates: Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak
RP - Joe Nathan - $11.25MM
RP - Jon Rauch - $2.9MM
RP - Jesse Crain - $1.7MM+
RP - Matt Guerrier - $1.475MM+
RP - Pat Neshek - $440K+
RP - Brian Duensing - $400K
RP - Jose Mijares - $400K
Other candidates: Bobby Keppel, Jeff Manship
Non-tender candidates: Boof Bonser, Delmon Young
The Twins have about $70.5MM committed before arbitration raises to Harris, Young, Gomez, Liriano, Crain, Guerrier, and Neshek. (Perkins is considering a grievance over missing Super Two status). They'll be in the high $70MMs range if all those players are tendered contracts. The Twins entered the '09 season at $65.3MM, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. Fortunately, there's a rumor payroll could jump to the $90-100MM range with the new stadium opening in 2010.
Smith's areas of focus should be second base, shortstop, and third base. Second base options are plentiful on the free agent market. Among shortstops Smith would be well-served to target Milwaukee's J.J. Hardy, but Hardy should have multiple suitors. Adrian Beltre and Troy Glaus could be interesting third base considerations.
The Twins are set in the outfield, though there's a case to be made for non-tendering Young and using that money for a left field/DH type.
The rotation has question marks behind Baker and Blackburn. Slowey is coming back from wrist surgery, Perkins from a shoulder injury, and Liriano from post-Tommy John elbow issues. Duensing had a 2.73 ERA in nine starts, though his peripheral stats were less inspiring. The Twins will have to find the Carl Pavano of 2010, an innings eater who can be had for a few million bucks.
Trading Nathan should be considered; he's owed $24.5MM over the next two seasons. He might bring a few decent pieces in return, and the savings could be used to add a veteran starter and/or late-inning reliever. On the other hand, the market will be flooded with closers this winter and the Twins could be starved for suitors.
Additionally, the Twins will attempt to sign Mauer long-term. Even with a hometown discount this might require a $100MM commitment.
Last winter, Smith used his budget to re-sign Punto and add Joe Crede and Luis Ayala. He supplemented those moves with the midseason additions of Orlando Cabrera, Ron Mahay, Pavano, and Rauch. The shuffling should continue this winter, as the Twins continue to seek infield solutions. With the pitching depth taking a hit, Smith will need every penny of that increased payroll.
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Craig Breslow was a midseason addition in '08, and a midseason subtraction in '09.
Breslow is now on the A's.
Posted by: reed0186 | November 02, 2009 at 03:48 PM
Punto makes 4MM??? HAHAHAHA!
Posted by: elgringo79 | November 02, 2009 at 03:54 PM
What's interesting about the Twins is they're not losing any key pieces - just throwing back a few parts picked up off the scrap heap.
They'll grab a few similar pieces this year, and with the natural progression of a young rotation and outfield, they'll pick up right where they left off.
Posted by: TwinsVet | November 02, 2009 at 03:58 PM
Trading Nathan and non-tendering Young - riiiiight. No chance. Nathan pitched hurt and anchors a bullpen just finding its feet again and Young is 24, cheap and coming off a solid second half.
Punto is starting somewhere, that's just the way it's going to be. They need power at 3B and a serviceable SS not named Cabrera.
But if they don't extend Mauer, nothing else matters.
Posted by: jhawk90 | November 02, 2009 at 04:01 PM
First and foremost, give Mauer an extension to however long he wishes.
Posted by: humannature | November 02, 2009 at 04:02 PM
I believe they should look at trading Nathan. He anchors the pen? So what, bullpen "anchors" can be found in multiple places if a team looks hard enough and does it's homework (ask San Diego). Teams without huge payrolls probably shouldn't pay a pitcher who's only going to throw 70 innings 18% of payroll. That seems obvious, no matter how good Nathan is (and he is good). It's not a good time to trade him but if they could find the right deal (payroll relief, good prospects) they should take it and spend the money on their offense.
Beltre definitely makes sense, so does Hardy. The Twins could possibly parlay the prospects they got back from Nathan into Hardy (though that would likely take a third team who's interested in prospects) and spend Nathan's money on Hardy and Beltre. Left side of the infield is fixed and the offense is upgraded and payroll doesn't go up.
Nathan is a nice luxury to have but probably the least important expensive player the Twins could have.
Posted by: pageian | November 02, 2009 at 04:12 PM
I still think that a Liriano/Hardy swap isn't totally out of the question.
Hardy would immediately give them a shortstop to end the revolving door at the position, Liriano's command hasn't returned post-TJS, and the deal fills clear holes for both teams.
The Twins get the shortstop they need, and could easily try Duensing, Swarzak, or Manship in the fifth spot in the rotation, and a FA signing to replace Pavano's veteran presence isn't out of the question, especially if they can fill the 2B/SS hole relatively cheaply.
The Brewers obviously are fine going into 2010 with Escobar as their everyday shortstop, and the Brewers could use another young lefty for the rotation to join Gallardo.
Non-tendering Young would be excessive, you don't let that kind of talent walk away, even if they don't really need him with a Cuddyer/Gomez/Span outfield and Kubel in the DH spot. Presumably he still would have trade value if the Twins kept him around.
And I don't see why trading Nathan would be a bad idea. As far as I can, for a team in Minnesota's position, spending $12M seems like a worse idea. They'd be better off trading Nathan, inserting Neshek, Rauch, Crain or Mijares into the closer role, and use the saved cash to fill a bigger hole in the rotation or lineup.
Posted by: scribbletone | November 02, 2009 at 04:19 PM
Delmon Young had a decent 2nd half. He had a great September which bolstered an otherwise poor year. Do you really want to retain a guy who is a lousy fielder, playing a premium offensive position, who has no speed, and posted an OPS of 800 or better for 2 months out of the entire year? I don't see it.
He has been an offensive black hole for 3 straight years now. He has shown ZERO improvement year over year. If he wasn't such a highly touted player in the minors he would have been dumped a long time ago. He is easily one of the worst corner outfielders in baseball today.
Posted by: bjsguess | November 02, 2009 at 04:30 PM
Can someone actually explain to me Youngs talent? he is 3 full seasons of basically identical poor play.
Have to agree with moving Nathan if possible.
Looking at that payroll though, this is why you have to like the Twins - The Twins would have to have the least waste on their payroll for any non-marlins team (i.e teams that actually spend)
Punto at 4 million is about it, and his versitality and leadership is probably worth 2mill.
Posted by: quintjs | November 02, 2009 at 04:30 PM
Nathan is real interesting. Unless the Twins are going to bump payroll, trading him would make the most sense.
I would be happy for my club to drop $12m on Nathan. You can take Fuentes + others in exchange for the guy.
Nathan is an absolute stud, no matter what happened in the playoffs. He is completely under appreciated. Easily a top 3 closer in baseball.
Posted by: bjsguess | November 02, 2009 at 04:33 PM
Jesse Crain should be included on the non-tender list before Boof Bonser, though Crain was dominant in his return late season, which may have saved him.
Still, the Twins love Boof and he'll likely have every opportunity to claim a spot on the bullpen in 2010, if not in the rotation, where he was originally pictured.
Trading Nathan makes sense, but would likely cause an uproar among casual fans. Still, we can't afford to be paying $12MM to Nathan, $2.9MM to Rauch, $2MM-ish to Crain, and $2MM-ish to Guerrier. This just isn't a team that can spend $20MM on its bullpen with such glaring holes in the infield.
There's five very strong points in this lineup (Span, Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer), but aside from that there's just nothing.
We've swung and missed big time on a few first round picks in the past, and it's showing big time with the complete and utter lack of any real infield prospects in our system. Matt Moses and Trevor Plouffe are disasters...
Posted by: MorneauVP | November 02, 2009 at 04:36 PM
Also, given the raise Hardy is due ($6MM-$7MM), and his awful 2009, I don't think he can command that much in a trade. I suppose the level of competition for his services will be a factor, but I'm not even convinced that the Brewers would turn down an offer of arms with less upside than Liriano even.
Liriano sizzled in his return from Tommy John in 2008, he just disappointed tremendously this year. I can't see the Twins giving up on him.
However, names like Perkins, Swarzak, Duensing, and Manship will have at least some appeal, and if my pitching situation were as bad as Milwaukee's, I'm not so sure I wouldn't prefer a couple of arms with lower ceilings. Just a thought...
Posted by: MorneauVP | November 02, 2009 at 04:41 PM
"I would be happy for my club to drop $12m on Nathan. You can take Fuentes + others in exchange for the guy."
If the Twins have to take on Fuentes' contract, then that kills the entire point of making the deal in the first place.
"We've swung and missed big time on a few first round picks in the past, and it's showing big time with the complete and utter lack of any real infield prospects in our system. Matt Moses and Trevor Plouffe are disasters..."
Still, I bet there was some disappointment in the organization that Jiovanni Mier didn't fall to them, although landing Kyle Gibson (regarded as the #4 prospect in the draft by BA before injury) was quite the consolation prize.
Posted by: scribbletone | November 02, 2009 at 04:51 PM
The Indians fan in me wants Mauer gone from the AL Central but the Yankee/Red Sox hater in me wants the Twins to lock him up for 5 years or more. Given that this year's World Series Championship might as well have been auctioned off on EBay, I'm hoping the Twins strike a deal.
Posted by: MickS | November 02, 2009 at 04:58 PM
Adding another big bat would make this offense elite.
Hardy and Beltre would fit nicely.
Span - RF/CF
Hardy - SS
Mauer - C
Morneau - 1b
Kubel - DH/RF
Beltre - 3b
Young/Cuddyer - LF
(Blank) - 2b
Gomez - CF
Something like that..
I would trade Cuddyer if the return was a decent starter who could eat innings.
Posted by: 661dodgerblue | November 02, 2009 at 05:16 PM
Gibson's a massive consolation prize, I was ecstatic to get him and for a relatively inexpensive bonus as well.
That coupled with Span's rebound me significantly less critical of the organization than I was 18 months ago, but we've still got some tough ones to swallow in there.
Chris Parmelee had a mediocre 2009 and looks uninspiring, Perkins' injuries and lack of any secondary pitches are disheartening, Kyle Waldrop hasn't been anything to write home about, and we traded Garza for peanuts.
I still don't understand the Carlos Gutierrez selection either, and he was absolutely atrocious at AA this season. He also hasn't come close to his strikeout numbers from Miami.
Overall, I guess I just have no faith in the organization's ability to evaluate infield talent. We haven't drafted an infielder since Plouffe in 2004, and the last successful infielder we drafted was Cuddyer in 1997, and he wound up in right field.
I suppose if you date back to drafting Chuck Knoblauch, and I believe Todd Walker was a first round pick as well, but overall if we have all these holes in the infield, we should be drafting something to fill the void.
Hopefully Sano sticks at shortstop and plugs at least one hole for a long period of time. I can't express how excited I am that we snatched him up.
Posted by: MorneauVP | November 02, 2009 at 05:22 PM
"If the Twins have to take on Fuentes' contract, then that kills the entire point of making the deal in the first place."
Twins get a replacement closer with a decent track record, save $5m/year, plus get prospects back. It's not ideal but it would free up money, replace the position, and give them other pieces.
Posted by: bjsguess | November 02, 2009 at 06:20 PM
'Twins get a replacement closer with a decent track record, save $5m/year, plus get prospects back. It's not ideal but it would free up money, replace the position, and give them other pieces."
Stop...please.
If you are really going to try and convince folks that trading Joe Nathan for Brian Fuentes makes sense from the Twins' perspective, at least let us know who the "+ others" are that are coming back to the Twins. Brandon Wood and Trevor Reckling?...or something far less desirable?
Posted by: vtadave | November 02, 2009 at 07:24 PM
Twins should at least shop Morneau around. Not a lot of first base options out there this off season, so they may be able to get a real solid return, and spend that $14 million on two or three players rather than just the one. I would think the Giants would be a good fit- maybe J Sanchez and some prospects? (Not only frees up money, gives the Twins more pitching to trade to shore up the IF). Plus, you then go out and get a part time 1B (maybe even Garko), and start getting Mauer AB's at 1B.
Posted by: jakec | November 02, 2009 at 07:35 PM
If Morneau is traded, Mauer will never sign an extension.
Posted by: Twins777 | November 02, 2009 at 08:34 PM
"Additionally, the Twins will attempt to sign Mauer long-term. Even with a hometown discount this might require a $100MM commitment."
I understand that Mauer *may* be open to taking a hometown discount (to some extent) if the Twins don't gut the team by moving core players such as Nathan and Morneau, but he has to know that with the NYY giving Tex 21M on average for 8 years, that he is worth more than that.
Figuring that Mauer is the best at his position in the game and plays a position the NYY already desperately need and after next year will be even worse off at, do Twins fans think he would settle for 100M, knowing that 180M plus is sitting in the Bronx?
Posted by: johns | November 02, 2009 at 09:31 PM
I really hope JakeC isn't serious about Morneau for J Sanchez and a couple of prospects. Those prospects would have to be Bumgarner and Posey because Mauer would be as good as gone if Morneau is traded. No reason to trade a MVP 1st baseman like Morneau, who's under contract at a reasonable price.
Posted by: MNRunLeft | November 02, 2009 at 09:48 PM
661:
Punto's contributions are perfectly described as (blank)
Posted by: 2HeadedBoy | November 02, 2009 at 10:24 PM
"Twins should at least shop Morneau around. Not a lot of first base options out there this off season, so they may be able to get a real solid return, and spend that $14 million on two or three players rather than just the one. I would think the Giants would be a good fit- maybe J Sanchez and some prospects?"
Sure thing. And maybe once that completely, 100% realistic trade is done, we can get Matt Cain for Delmon Young and Matt Tolbert.
Posted by: MorneauVP | November 03, 2009 at 12:14 AM
The Twins should look into trading (insert Twins player here) because [strong market demand for position/you can't afford him] and not just because my favorite team has a glaring need at said players position. We'll give you (expendable meh major leaguers/crap prospects/players will bad contracts) for him.
Summary of this thread.
Posted by: TwinRoyals | November 03, 2009 at 02:27 AM
What about a trade of Nathan to the Phillies? Not sure if they want to add more payroll but they could use an elite closer, and maybe the Twins could get Madsen + back in return?
Posted by: BabyJesus | November 03, 2009 at 07:58 AM
If we could get Nathan for Madsen and a couple of other people, I would be ecstatic as a Phillies fan. Put Lidge in the SU role and Nathan in the 9th, that would be amazing.
Posted by: worldchamps08 | November 03, 2009 at 08:10 AM
A couple of comments... Morneau isn't going to be traded. He and Mauer are best friends and the Twins organization needs Morneau in MN to get Mauer to sign an extension. Mauer will be willing to sign an extension if the Twins show they are willing to bring in quality players. Considering that the organization spent more than ever on international free agents for the minors (Miguel Angel Sano - 3.5 mil, Max Kepler-Rozycki - 800k, Jorge Polanco - 750k), there is the possibility that payroll could break $100 million.
If payroll if 100+, Nathan doesn't seem so expensive and signing guys like Beltre, Hardy, Pavano, etc. would be possible.
Posted by: NickL1538 | November 03, 2009 at 08:32 AM
Here is what I think is a realistic offseason for the Twins.
Trades: The twins can’t risk trading any of their top players (Nathan, Morneau, Cuddyer) w/ out risking Mauer getting upset and rejecting an extension. If we can swap one our non top three pitchers for infield help we should do it, but it is not likely we can get anything better than what we have. The trade that I like is one of our bottom pitchers for Castillo of the Mets. He only has 2 years left and the Mets would likely give him away.
Free Agents: I like resigning Cabrera to a 1 year plus an option. He isn’t great, but if we can put two professional middle infielders out there (aka not Punto) it will be an upgrade. Try to sign a veteran such as Pavano or Garland by including incentives that put them over 10M. This may be a slight over pay, but if they reach the incentives it means they performed well, and if they suck it up we can just drop them b/4 they reach the incentives.
In House: DO NOT give Punto a full time position and find the incriminating pictures he has of Gardenhire/Smith, I’m assuming that is the only reason he makes 4M and plays full time. A Harris/Punto combo for backup inf works. Send Gomez to AAA or only use him as a 4/5th OF.
The comment of dropping Young and going after a LF/DH. Am I confused or isn’t that what Kubel is, and he was quite good.
C – Mauer – 12.5M
1B – Morneau – 14M
2B – Castillo – 6M
SS – Cabrera- 5-7M
3B – Valencia – 400k
LF – Young – 2M
CF – Span – 400k
RF – Cuddyer – 8.5M
OF/DH – Kubel – 4.1M
Roster Fill – 6M
SP – Baker – 3M
SP – Blackburn – 400k
SP – Slowey – 400K
SP – Pavano/Garland/Vet SP – 6-10M
SP/RP – Perkins/Liriano/Duensing/Swarzak – 2.5M
RP – Nathan – 11.25M
RP – Rauch – 2.9M
RP – Crain – 2.5M
RP – Guerrier – 2.5M
RP – Neshek – 1M
RP – Mijares – 400k
Total of about 95M, which if the owners hold to a 52% of revenue going to players should be within reach. This may be a high number to start the season, but if they are out of it late in the summer they can always trade some players out when teams start to overpay at the deadline. If they trade Nathan, the deadline is the correct time since there will be fewer options for teams than there are now.
Posted by: TwnFn311 | November 03, 2009 at 08:37 AM
Yeah I'm sure the Mets will just be willing to give Castillo away for some low-level prospects.
Posted by: deedublu | November 03, 2009 at 09:43 AM
I don't think the twins trade w/ the mets is out there. He had a solid year, but they wanted to give him away last year. With their pitching being weak one of the twins #4 or 5 starters for him would allow them to go after a 2b (hudson) that they have been rumored to want for years. I'm not saying trade one of our crappy AAA guys for him, but one of Perkins/Duensing/Swarzak who has some major league success. Any of those three guys could go to the NL and give you leage average 150-180 innings. It seems like a reasonable return for castillo and his contract.
Posted by: TwnFn311 | November 03, 2009 at 09:55 AM
I would love to see the Twins go after Aki from TB, he could play 3b if Valencia isn't ready or I could see Kelly Johnson if he is non tendered.
Posted by: BabyJesus | November 03, 2009 at 10:34 AM
I never understood why people hate, literally loathe punto. It is true that he does not have a bat to speak of for three quarters of a year, but he has got to be the top three best gloves in the game in the infield. Also, he is clutch. In the playoffs and game 163 he had the best at bats of the game consistantly fighting off pitches and finally either working walks or getting the runner over. He should be next years starting 2B while hitting 9th. Too many people underrate defense.
Also, Twins fans underestimate Nathan, which is shocking to me. He just had the best season of any closer in TWINS HISTORY and you want to trade him? Do you have any idea how many of the games he won Mijares would have blown? And suggesting Neshek is immediately up to the job is ridiculous seeing that he hasn't pitched in two years.
Also, Delmon is only 24! And he has a career batting average of .288. Give him one more year before you give up on him and call him one of the worst corner outfielders in baseball.
Ultimately though we need, NEED to sign Mauer, but that will happen.
Additionally, we should resign Pavano, Cabrera, and look at Beltre. And resign Mahay for middle relief.
Keep in mind we are getting a top pitcher back (Slowey) and a MVP to go along with the same exact team that won the division last year.
Posted by: samHD | November 05, 2009 at 12:00 PM