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« Reds Re-Sign Ramon Hernandez | Main | Bailey, Coghlan Win Rookie Of The Year Awards »
Vernon Wells Extension Reactions
On December 15th, 2006, Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi signed center fielder Vernon Wells to a seven-year, $126MM extension. The heavily-backloaded contract included a full no-trade clause and an opt-out clause after the 2011 season. At the time of the signing, Wells was a year away from free agency.
With five years and $105MM remaining, the Wells extension is now widely regarded as the worst contract in baseball. I thought it'd be interesting to see what sportswriters were saying at the time of the signing.
Jerry Crasnick, ESPN: "Depending on your viewpoint, Wells' new deal with Toronto is either a heartwarming tale of loyalty or yet another sign that major league baseball owners never learn."
Keith Law, ESPN: "By deferring most of the payments due, Ricciardi keeps more payroll in the 2007-10 years available to pay other players, even if it means killing the team's financial flexibility in 2011 and beyond."
Peter Gammons, ESPN: "If you're going to give $18 million to somebody, you want them to be as diligent and as reliable as Vernon. If he went out in the market next year, with Andruw Jones, and Ichiro, and Torii Hunter, I really believe that at his age he might be #1."
Jeff Blair, Globe and Mail: "The dollars involved in Wells's extension are an accurate reading of a system flush with cash because of new media riches, labour peace and solid attendance in big markets. Wells would have received $20-million a year as a free agent next year without breaking a sweat. His on-field production - a Gold Glove, .300 batting average, 30 home runs and 100 runs batted in - would not be replaced in time to compete this year in the hypercompetitive American League East."
Nate Silver, Baseball Prospectus: "Toronto did a good job of assessing Wells's value in the short term. As for the risks associated with a contract that stretches past the player's 35th birthday? Consider it a necessary evil for securing a premium player who likely would've fetched at least $150 million in next year's market."
J.C. Bradbury, Sabernomics: "Wells needs to hurry up and sign the Blue Jays contract offer of $126 million over seven years. My most optimistic projection (assuming no decline in play from 2006) has him at $107 over seven years."
I didn't offer much opinion on the extension, but I did note that it was crazy that the $18MM salary was seen as a loyalty discount. Click here to read the opinions of MLBTR commenters.
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Peter Gammons = swing and miss
Jerry Crasnick = homerun
Posted by: Kinsm | November 16, 2009 at 12:33 PM
It was a bad deal from the sense of a team committing so much to one player and the fact that it was so heavily backloaded so now the Jays haven't won anything in the years with financial flexability and are saddled with the worst part of the contract for a declining player. Its not hard to see how JP is out of a job with moves like this.
Posted by: BabyJesus | November 16, 2009 at 12:38 PM
The MLBTR comments from that thread = classic!
Posted by: deeselig | November 16, 2009 at 12:41 PM
bsox21 was awesome in the post.
1. The guy was dead wrong in his assessment of Wells.
2. He shouted down anyone who called him on the carpet. The "F*$& Off" statement was dropped several times.
3. He refused to acknowledge legitimate concerns about Wells' performance. Instead he fell back on the fact that Wells was a true baseball player that grew up around the game. Yeah - that should carry a ton of weight.
The post was also useful to see people discuss the long-term impacts of the signing. It's a great reminder that at the time, most signings do look good. However, they come back to bite you in the latter years when the player is older, his performance has decreased, and deferred money needs to be paid.
Posted by: bjsguess | November 16, 2009 at 12:42 PM
As usual, Gammons provided the bone-headed viewpoint, and Crasnick gives us both sides of the story.
And the fans of the Blue Jays cry as the fans of every other team laugh and laugh.
Posted by: BaseballFan0707 | November 16, 2009 at 12:45 PM
When I saw the title of this story I thought the Jays gave him another contract extension. I almost cried.
Posted by: dizzle | November 16, 2009 at 12:53 PM
I was dead-on with my prediction!
Posted by: YankeeFanatic | November 16, 2009 at 12:55 PM
bsox21 post was a laugh out loud riot to read. Thank your for immortalizing that post MLBTR.
I will be more cautious from now on.
Posted by: Bretwk | November 16, 2009 at 12:58 PM
Reading the old posts made me think. Glad this place is more civil now.
Posted by: Sparticus | November 16, 2009 at 12:58 PM
man, the people that keep saying how the posts have gone down need to go read that! That was great..I wonder who that Bsox is....I bet he's still here under a different name
Posted by: stlcards16 | November 16, 2009 at 12:58 PM
I love the very first guy's statement.
something to the effect of "Haha Dodgers you can't have him!"
lol. SOOOO glad we don't.
Posted by: GScott | November 16, 2009 at 01:01 PM
Well, i suppose Bsox was feeling a little angsty that year since his team missed the playoffs.
I can't argue with it though. His posts are hilarious. 20 says he was a 14 year old bandwagon fan.
Posted by: BaseballFan0707 | November 16, 2009 at 01:03 PM
I love how the next post is "Brewers to make Suppan an offer". I thought to myself 'oh no' there is another trainwreck about to happen.
Posted by: bbxxj | November 16, 2009 at 01:04 PM
I provide more baseball knowledge in one post than u have in ur whole time here.
dont waste our time with your useless rhetoric.
Posted by: bsox21 | December 15, 2006 at 08:56 AM
LOL
Posted by: Kinsm | November 16, 2009 at 01:04 PM
I'm a Red Sox fan and guys like bsox21 make me feel embarrassed to be one. Please people, we're not all like that, just like not all Yankees fans think they have a birthright to the World Series every year.
Posted by: rip | November 16, 2009 at 01:08 PM
People like bsox crack me up. They claim to be so knowledgable about baseball and are so quick to call everyone else stupid and I guarantee you that kid either never even played ball and if he did he was the kid on the team that everyone made fun of for sucking so bad.
Posted by: JOEYB33 | November 16, 2009 at 01:09 PM
I think it should be a new tradition every slow Monday to did back in the archives and find something like this to give us all a good laugh!
Posted by: stlcards16 | November 16, 2009 at 01:09 PM
hahahahahah, that was the most hilarious comment board I have ever seen.
Bosox was obviously the prize piece, but when that guy, hood i think, asked if vernon wells was being paid in canadian dollars and what the exchange rate was, I almost lost it. I skipped a bunch of posts until i saw bosox name, and he hammered him. That guy needs a comeback.
Posted by: Robbie Cano | November 16, 2009 at 01:17 PM
More than the buying championship thing, is what I hate the most about the Yankees spending so much money.
It puts players in a position to bargain for more, and owners and GMs in a position to prove to their fans that they're willing to spend to win. And unlike with the Yankees, other teams can't just go out and spend more money when they're one big signing doesn't work out.
Posted by: ThinkBlue | November 16, 2009 at 01:19 PM
You have to admit, it's a pretty damn funny thread. I don't think I was on here just yet myself. It's fitting that it's a Red Sox fan. Group this under the file Jerry Rice, the Jeter edition for absolutely asinine comments. This is one that got me -
the problem here isnt the facts.
the facts are simple and readily available.
the problem here is stupidity.
all the facts in the world won't help a moron discover the truth.
baseball is a very simple game. u guys are jus THAT stupid.
Posted by: bsox21 | December 15, 2006 at 10:31 AM
Posted by: TheDugout | November 16, 2009 at 01:19 PM
Great article, really made Gammons look foolish.
Posted by: pcain_78 | November 16, 2009 at 01:20 PM
thinkblue, glad you got that off your chest. you comment has absolutely no relevance to this discussion. lol
Posted by: TheDugout | November 16, 2009 at 01:21 PM
Oh Jeff Blair, you tool you.
How about a bad walk rate and a body type that doesn't age well in center field.
Posted by: The_Bunk | November 16, 2009 at 01:22 PM
Man, that was tough to read. I remember, as a die-hard Jays fan, wanting then to extend Wells so badly, but when those contract specifics came out, I almost puked. Who, in their right mind back-loads over $100MM?
And it was clear then that Vernon had health issues. his 04 and 05 should have factored in as his 03 and 06 did in this decision. Look at 07 and 09. My God.
We rabid Jays fans can now only pray that Wells can maintain an .800 OPS for the next few years, and hopefully he is in LF when he does it, because, you know, those Gold Gloves really aren't the best indicators of one's defensive abilities.
The fact remains, this contract was a train-wreck at the time, and is an apocalypse now.
How can the Jays rebuild with Wells making $20MM for the next 5 years? They need to throw some money at the team and hope for the best (Wells hitting .280/.330/.470).
JP (and Godfrey, if you believe he was to blame) were spies sent from Boston to cripple my team. Is there any other explanation?
Posted by: twitter.com/andymc9293 | November 16, 2009 at 01:29 PM
Hahahah, Yankee Fanatic you hit the nail on the head. Good call.
Posted by: Casanova Wong | November 16, 2009 at 01:32 PM
That Bsox dude hopefully doesnt post anymore or he'll be laughed at
Posted by: Moses Magnum | November 16, 2009 at 01:32 PM
If I remember right, bsox21 was a Mets fan...not a Red Sox fan. Or maybe the Cubs. I don't remember exactly but I do remember that he wasn't a Red Sox fan, despite what his name infers
Posted by: boomshwa12 | November 16, 2009 at 01:34 PM
On the bright side, at least Wells is primed to be awesome this year judging by his "every other year" strategy.
Posted by: jza1218 | November 16, 2009 at 01:41 PM
This is a misleading exercise. Of course people will claim a bad deal – it worked out horribly. But that can be done in hindsight only. When signing a deal you don’t have hindsight, you only have what has been provided so far. And people need to remember his value pre-extension here
Wells prior to contract
2002 – 1.3 WAR at 23 Years
2003 - 4.0 WAR at 24 Years
2004 – 3.8 WAR at 25 Years
2005 – 3.1 WAR at 26 Years
2006 – 5.8 WAR at 27 Years
Now overlay it with someone signing a recent extreme deal
(03 Tex at 23 – 1.5 WAR) v. 2002 – 1.3 WAR at 23 Years
(04 Tex at 24 – 4.0 WAR) v. 2003 - 4.0 WAR at 24 Years
(05 Tex at 25 – 5.4 WAR) v. 2004 – 3.8 WAR at 25 Years
(06 Tex at 26 – 3.1 WAR) v. 2005 – 3.1 WAR at 26 Years
(07 Tex at 27 – 3.8 WAR) v. 2006 – 5.8 WAR at 27 Years
(08 Tex at 28 – 6.7 WAR) --- Wells got his contract before this season took place
You can see the ideal similarities in the two players. In fact, ages 23-27 the two were worth an identical 17.8 WAR to 18 WAR with nearly perfectly matching highs and lows.
Its easy to condemn something when it doesn’t work out. But based off his value leading up to it, they took a similar risk to the one the Yankees just took with Tex.
Wells of course goes on to being one of the worst starters in the game (making the contract so horrible) after that fantastic 5 year span – but who can predict something like that? It would be kind of like saying someone like Bay or Holliday will be worth below league average value over the next three seasons. Who is ready to go on the record stating that?
I didn’t like the deal then for the Jays. I thought they should have traded Wells and kept Rios (who took a similar nosedive after his contract) to be their CF. And after the 3 seasons of horrific production from Wells, I do call it the worst contract in baseball. But after 5 seasons of 18 WAR from a not-yet 28 Year Old, the contract wasn’t the worst idea – it just ended up that way in hindsight because of an unforeseen face-planet from a once great player looking young player.
And that thread is hysterical, in hindsight.
Posted by: SuzysMan | November 16, 2009 at 01:49 PM
I remember BSox21 to be a Mets fan as well.
Posted by: G4LBB25 | November 16, 2009 at 01:49 PM
Gammons, surprise surprise, is an idiot. But I'm surprised that Nate Silver essentially thought it was a good move, especially considering how long BP has hammered Wells and called him one of the most overrated players in the game.
Posted by: Pinky29 | November 16, 2009 at 01:50 PM
I'm a Red Sox fan and guys like bsox21 make me feel embarrassed to be one. Please people, we're not all like that, just like not all Yankees fans think they have a birthright to the World Series every year.
Posted by: rip | November 16, 2009 at 01:08 PM
----------
LOL
Posted by: DodgerJulio | November 16, 2009 at 02:10 PM
Funniest part of that post:
Hey anyone on here with some brains know how the money in Canada translates to the money US dollars. So is he getting 126 in Canadian money or US money.
In case you couldn't understand bsox don't answer that last question tough guy.
Posted by: hood | December 15, 2006 at 09:36 AM
-------------------
Good stuff Hood, whoever you are, good stuff....
Posted by: DodgerJulio | November 16, 2009 at 02:15 PM
That thread defines "good times"..
Posted by: 661dodgerblue | November 16, 2009 at 02:21 PM
I love the very first guy's statement.
something to the effect of "Haha Dodgers you can't have him!"
lol. SOOOO glad we don't.
Posted by: GScott | November 16, 2009 at 01:01 PM"
I was thinking the same thing..
God I remember the Dodgers were thought to be major players for him too..
Posted by: 661dodgerblue | November 16, 2009 at 02:26 PM
If the Red Sox miss out on both Bay and Holliday.... and still seem desperate to acquire a tier-1 starting pitcher.. Don't be surprised if the Red Sox take not only Roy Halladay thru trade, but also let the blue Jays add Vernon Davis to the deal!!
In order to get this deal legit, the Blue Jays would, in return probably take the contract of Mike(Mike who)Lowell.
Red Sox Lineup:
CF) Ellsbury
2b) Pedroia
3b) Youk
DH) Ortiz
C) V. Martinez
LF) Wells
RF) Drew
1b) ???
SS) Scutaro
Rotation:
- Halladay
- Beckett
- Lester
- Matsusaka
- Wakefield
Posted by: Barrettman | November 16, 2009 at 02:34 PM
From the other older thread
"And taking Beltran over Andruw Jones?! Andruw has won NINE gold gloves since he hit the majors because he's the best defensive centerfielder by far. Andruw hits for better power, more RBIs, and is way better defensively. I don't need him to steal 20 bags if he's batting 4th. When he was younger, he was a 30-30 guy. But, he added muscle to be able to drive the ball farther. And not to mention he's a lot more consistent than Beltran. One year he hits 40-40 and the next he's at 15-20. His average goes up and down and his power isn't consistent. I can go ahead and predict Andruw's 40 homer 120 RBI with a gold glove. You know what he's capable of, but you have no idea what type of numbers Beltran'll put up in 2007. He's talented and definitely top 2, but Andruw has been doing it longer, better and more consistent."
Oh as a Braves fan how I wish this were still true. Beltran is better than both Jones and Wells now and it's NOT even close either.
Posted by: Darion | November 16, 2009 at 03:12 PM
I have no need to defend JP, but like someone else said, everyone was signing crazy contracts. There were issues with the contract, mostly in length, and the fact that Wells didn't figure to age well in CF. But Andruw Jones got $36M/2, despite very bad stats in his last year at Atl, so he was going to get $18M+ from someone.
Posted by: Joey B | November 16, 2009 at 03:54 PM
The Jays surely must be hoping Vernon pulls a Johjima and opts out in 2011 lol
Highly unlikely considering his mega-deal is only now going to start kicking in BIG TIME.
It is nice to dream
Posted by: DKast | November 16, 2009 at 04:07 PM
Barrettman - I like the dreamland trade scenario. We are all speculating what Boston would have to give up to get Halladay. Buchholz, Bowden, Bard, etc.
If they were taking Vernon WELLS (not Davis) they could probably get away with just give up Lowell and get to keep their prospects.
Maybe they could even keep Lowell and only give Toronto Lowie.
Posted by: Bretwk | November 16, 2009 at 04:09 PM
I know its been said but that Bosox guys comments ... well ... Anyways although the more knowledgeable and capable SABR guys have recently called out fangraphs on some things its probably sites like that (and prob FJM) which have made baseball discussions a lot better even if a lot of fans (someone like me) cites WAR and UZR without much of their own analysis ... I mean back in '06 I may have given that bosox guy at least some credit for his arguement if not for FJM making fun of similar args in the media ... anayways ...
Posted by: drew3434 | November 16, 2009 at 04:51 PM
Wells prior to contract
2002 – 1.3 WAR at 23 Years
2003 - 4.0 WAR at 24 Years
2004 – 3.8 WAR at 25 Years
2005 – 3.1 WAR at 26 Years
2006 – 5.8 WAR at 27 Years
Proof that people should watch the games more and read the stat sheets less.
Posted by: Svengoolie | November 16, 2009 at 05:05 PM
"Barrettman - I like the dreamland trade scenario. We are all speculating what Boston would have to give up to get Halladay. Buchholz, Bowden, Bard, etc.
If they were taking Vernon WELLS (not Davis) they could probably get away with just give up Lowell and get to keep their prospects.
Maybe they could even keep Lowell and only give Toronto Lowie."
Not a chance that one happens, but I think that model will be the future of trading. $105M/5 for Wells is so onerous, that Halladay doesn't even qualify as a throwin. But a team like Cincy with Arroyo or Harang should be able to pair him with a youngster to create a package. Teams like the RS, Mets, or NYY could use another good starter, a #4 type, and could afford some of the bad contracts. Harang is a drag on Cincy, but a team like the RS would mind overpaying for him if they picked up something on the side.
Posted by: Joey B | November 16, 2009 at 05:26 PM
"Proof that people should watch the games more and read the stat sheets less."
Ahhh yes, because actually "watching" the game (apparently something people who recognize stats dont do -sigh-) would mean you saw 5 years of .288/.336/.499/.835 production and gold glove defense in CF from a pre-28 year old off a .303/.357/.542/.899 AS, GG and MVP-getting season. Yep, watching that would have been a reason not to offer him a contract -rolls eyes-
Posted by: SuzysMan | November 16, 2009 at 05:48 PM
(words missing up there. Should be "MVP-*vote* getting season")
Posted by: SuzysMan | November 16, 2009 at 05:50 PM
The thing that bothers me most about this contract is after Wells 2007 season he would have been lucky to get 7 mill a year in the market.
Posted by: homer01 | November 16, 2009 at 06:04 PM
That bsox21 guy is awesome! He just made my night.
Posted by: East Coast Bias | November 16, 2009 at 07:01 PM
As much a jerk as bsox was, almost no one there said he was flat out wrong, some were not as certain as he but the general majority opinion - not by a small margin - both among professionals and fan comments was that the deal was reasonable in that market.
The idea that the Jays were selling out future financial flexibility by backloading the deal so heavily ignores that the "baseball inflation" rate over the previous decade - had it continued and not crashed last winter with the rest of the economy - would have more than mitigated the rate Wells will be making in those years - so much so that opting out would have been a real, viable choice for him (IF - IFIFIF he had maintained the same level of production which obviously he hasn't)
If the market hadn't crashed Bay and Holliday would easily be looking at 20-25 million per year deals this year and Tex would be making even more than he is. If you go back and look at the inflation of the average major leaguer's salary from 1995-2005 the contract that's worth $21 million in 2011 would have been the equivalent of about $16 million in 2007.
Furthermore, the Jays and Wells let stand his $5.6 million contract for 2007, so in real terms they committed $131.6 mil over 8 years which brings the AAV of the deal down to $16.5 per year.
The Jays gambled that they would have the breakthrough year in that 2006-2010 window (during the first three years of which me made only $24.6 mil combined) and bought the financial flexibility to try to make that happen at the expense of the out years when it was perfectly reasonable to expect that the baseball economy would continue to expand and that there own payroll would be $120 million a year or more (which, by the way, Paul Beeston commonly says that the owners are willing to spend that much if the needs of the team call for it so that wasn't even a wrong conclusion.
Paying Wells (at his higher levels of production) $21 mil a year doesn't look nearly as bad on a $130 mil payroll as it does on an $80 mil payroll.
The real problem for the Jays is that a previously mostly healthy Wells started getting hurt a lot, he also cratered in 2009 in a way that is, no matter how you thought he would age, completely off the normal curve and not at all anything anyone could or should have expected - and at the same time the baseball economy crashed in an unprecedented way.
None of this was reasonable to predict when Wells signed the deal and no one predicted any of those at the time. Even those with reservations about the size of the deal had reservations about the market as a whole, not that Wells was an outlier from an otherwise reasonable market.
finally, in terms of threads making fun reads - it's fascinating to see so many people disrespect the views posted there, from Gammons on down, when they have the benefit of hindsight regarding all three major factors which no one writing at the time could reasonably have been expected to fore see.
Posted by: WillRain | November 16, 2009 at 08:18 PM
"The thing that bothers me most about this contract is after Wells 2007 season he would have been lucky to get 7 mill a year in the market."
I’m not so sure. His 2007 might have been as good as his 2006 if he didn’t sign that contract. I mean, he went from arguably one of the best to arguably the worst CF in the game overnight prior to 07, with no evidence to explain it.
2004-2006 averages
.355 wOBA, 7.9 BB%, 14.7 K%, .59 BB/K, .211 ISO, 5.0 Spd, 1.06 GB/FB, 13.8 HR/FB
2007-2009 average
.322 wOBA, 7.1 BB%, 13.5 K%, .57 BB/K, .161 ISO, 5.3 Spd, 1.04 GB/FB, 8.5 HR/FB
You can see only one difference in the two – power. He lost about half his power, dropping his wOBA, ISO and HR/FB off the charts.
He injured his shoulder early in the 2007 season, and never missed any time because of it. You have to imagine the BlueJays had it looked at pretty thoroughly though. (they just invested 120MM on it afterall) And since he didn’t miss time, it must have been ok. Yet it is still the only thing to possibly explain this disappearing act other then his receiving his money and ceasing to have desire any longer.
Plus, this happened to his fielding
2004-2006
3783.1 Inn, 3.4 Arm, 13.0 RngR, 4.1 ErrR, 20.5 UZR, 7.8 UZR/150,
2007-2009
3524.2 Inn, 1.7 Arm, -36.1 RngR, 0.8 ErrR, -33.6 UZR, -13.5 UZR/150
pointing to the strong possibility that his payday is actually the only reason for the change. His arm decline could be associated with the apparently non-serious injury. But his range (while his overall speed shown was up) and errors should not really be affected much by a shoulder. Those becoming the areas which were hit the worst leads one to believe the payday is the likely reason for the change in him.
And if his payday is the only reason he went from one of the best to one of the worst, then you would have to imagine 2007 would look like 2006 if he hadn’t got the contract when he did; 2008 then starting the disappearing-act we have since seen from him.
Overall unless he somehow changes his production going forward (or a 3 year injury is finally discovered), Wells might go down as one of the greatest mysteries in the history of the sport. There is just nothing to explain why he went from great to crap overnight after that payday. Could you imagine Hanley Ramirez (a similar 200-220 ISO guy) signing his new deal then mysteriously showing the power of Felipe Lopez? That is about what happened to Wells here.
Well, I guess steroids are another possible explanation. And actually, might be a pretty good one.
Posted by: SuzysMan | November 16, 2009 at 08:21 PM
WillRain,
First, great post.
"The real problem for the Jays is that a previously mostly healthy Wells started getting hurt a lot, he also cratered in 2009 in a way that is, no matter how you thought he would age, completely off the normal curve and not at all anything anyone could or should have expected - and at the same time the baseball economy crashed in an unprecedented way."
did want to question that though. Has he really experienced a bunch of injuries? I know about the shoulder injury, but it being treated so casually by the team makes you think it probably wasnt to serious. Similarly, 08 is the only season he missed any time to the DL - ironically, 2008 representing the season where it looked like his power might be coming back some.
What type of injuries has he been facing? And more importantly, if these injuries are possibly to blame for the decline, why didnt the Blue Jays do everything possible to correct them? If he has been experiencing a lot of injuries, it seems the Jays havnt been taking them too seriously.
Posted by: SuzysMan | November 16, 2009 at 08:32 PM
"2004-2006
3783.1 Inn, 3.4 Arm, 13.0 RngR, 4.1 ErrR, 20.5 UZR, 7.8 UZR/150,
2007-2009
3524.2 Inn, 1.7 Arm, -36.1 RngR, 0.8 ErrR, -33.6 UZR, -13.5 UZR/150
pointing to the strong possibility that his payday is actually the only reason for the change. His arm decline could be associated with the apparently non-serious injury. But his range (while his overall speed shown was up) and errors should not really be affected much by a shoulder. Those becoming the areas which were hit the worst leads one to believe the payday is the likely reason for the change in him."
There is no under-estimating that factor. If he remained the fielder that he was early in his career, he'd still be overpaid, but it would be a lot easier to deal with a GG CF with a mediocre bat than someone that can't do either. If he still had his range, you might have been able to deal him to the NYY at some point without having to eat more than half of his salary.
Posted by: Joey B | November 17, 2009 at 08:31 AM