Odds & Ends: Rosario, Red Sox, Bernazard, Storen

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48 Comments on "Odds & Ends: Rosario, Red Sox, Bernazard, Storen"


04Forever
5 years 4 months ago

i think howard will leave the critics eating their words personally.

5 years 4 months ago

I said the same thing about Vernon Wells how long ago? The sad part is that the reaction to that deal was actually more positive.

04Forever
5 years 4 months ago

one thing has nothing to do with the other

strikethree
5 years 4 months ago

Critics are not calling him a bad player.

The point here is the urgency that they felt they had to sign him to this huge contract.

It is a bad contract because of the circumstances and the market — not just about Howard’s future production.

You have a great defensive catcher like Mauer at a rare offensive position making close to just about 20 mil a year. Then you have Howard here making 25 mil annually.

A 1st baseman hitting a bunch of home runs is not rare. It is much easier to find a good 1st baseman than any other position. (Besides DH I suppose)

Again, they could have waited (No — they SHOULD have waited). They didn’t wait and still offered a massive contract. It doesn’t make any sense. I don’t care if Howard posts another 1.000+ OPS season (very unlikely) They could have still signed him cheaper — that is the point.

Unlike the other dumb contract negotiations with Holliday and Bay (where the market was very thin), other teams actually CANNOT go near the guy. So what was the rush?

5 years 4 months ago

I’m pretty sure Buster Posey saw some time in the majors last year.

Luke Adams
5 years 4 months ago

Good point, forgot about that. Thanks.

5 years 4 months ago

Olbermanns article provides absolutely no insight. If you’re going to write something about that topic, at least have an idea. I find that saying “No Clue” is completely unacceptable. At least throw out a name. Do some research on their minor league system for names. Anything.

TimotheusATL
5 years 4 months ago

Consider the source…

j6takish
5 years 4 months ago

Yeah that article was really half assed. Even the clubs he did name names for, there wasn’t a lot of thought put into any of them.

sacu
5 years 4 months ago

I didn’t even read the comments before I posted almost the same exact thing about his joke of an “article”.

East Coast Bias
5 years 4 months ago

This isn’t his day job. It’s not even his side job, which is NFL Sunday Night Football. It’s his own blog that mlb links to. Relax, fellas, it’s not Peter Gammons or Ken Rosenthal, or someone else that reports/follows baseball on a regular basis.

BoSoxSam
5 years 4 months ago

I don’t know why the Phils needed to make this extension, out of risk he was going to leave after 2011. Is there anyone else that would pay him this much? Already went over this in the first Howard thread, but I don’t know why anyone thinks this was a good move to make sure he stayed. If they were confident in going up to 25 million until he’s 37, then they could have just kept outbidding others in FA until they hit that number, because again, there aren’t that many (if any) other teams that would be willing to go that far.

Fangaffes
5 years 4 months ago

“modifications in Fangraphs’ UZR model ”

Good! Perhaps it won’t be quite as useless now.

5 years 4 months ago

The metrics are only useless if you don’t know how to use them..

nhsox
5 years 4 months ago

No kidding…. I can’t wait until they fix their formulas so Ben Zobrist is no longer worth more than Albert Pujols. Quite the “gaffe” if you ask me.

The saddest part is, people on this site endorse fangraphs metrics even if they defy all conventional wisdom.

5 years 4 months ago

Did you ever think that maybe conventional wisdom is wrong?

Nobody on FanGraphs would argue that Zobrist is better than Pujols, or that he’ll be better than Pujols going forward. But based on their data and calculations, which one could certainly disagree with, Zobrist offered slightly more value than Pujols last year. And that makes a decent amount of sense, when you consider that Zobrist played elite defense at 2B/RF while Pujols was nothing special at 1B.

nhsox
5 years 4 months ago

First, I want to say that Zobrist is a great player and there are I really respect the work that the people over at fangraphs do. It is all very interesting and is a welcome resource in my opinion.

That being said, if their metrics say that Zobrist is “worth” more than Pujols, when its fairly clear that Pujols is the best offensive player in the game, while holding any positive value in the field is suspect at best.

Who is to say that their assessment of Zobrist’s defense is even accurate? How is it certain that they aren’t over compensating for the fact that he can play two positions? While we’re at it, why are RBI and runs scored considered irrelevant when the game is measured in terms of runs? Granted they certainly not the only factor to consider, but useless? That, I just can’t believe and haven’t found anyone who can give me a good enough answer to.

5 years 4 months ago

That’s the biggest legitimate knock against FanGraphs WAR, I would argue, is the accuracy of UZR. Zobrist almost certainly isn’t as good as UZR says he was last season, and frankly, if you ask anyone at FanGraphs, they’ll agree with you. But UZR is the best that we have right now, and it’s calculations say that Zobrist was really damn good last season. That doesn’t necessarily mean that he’ll sustain those numbers for 2010 and beyond.

The biggest problem with FanGraphs is how people use it. You have to take one season with a grain of salt. I mean, of course Pujols is a better player than Zobrist. One season where Zobrist was ever so slightly better doesn’t outweigh the other eight seasons where Pujols continued to be arguably the game’s best player.

WAR isn’t the end-all, be-all, it’s simply a quick reference that attempts to quantify every portion of a player’s performance. One season of data is nice, but two seasons is better, and three seasons better than that, and so on.

And FanGraphs has numerous statistics, primarily RE24 and WPA/LI, that take context into account, so a player is given credit for success in high-leverage situations.

nhsox
5 years 4 months ago

I understand you completely. WAR is where they come up with those dollar figures, correct? WAR in principle is really impossible to detect year to year from the plate, too. For instance, David Ortiz when he was praised for all of his walk off hits a few years ago.
Is it fair to assume that a replacement player would hit about .250 in those situations? Who knows? Especially given that certain players are apt to hit certain pitches better than others, etc. It’s a very complicated issue and its cool that fangraphs attempts to put a number on it.

Thanks for the info. It was appreciated.

TwinsVet
5 years 4 months ago

Do you find the +1, +0.5, -1, etc., positional modifications that go into WAR to be problematic as well? They strike me as arbitrary and subjective. I understand that positional modifications are necessary, but the precise values are far from scientific…

Suzysman
5 years 4 months ago

Ranger pitcher CJ Wilson, via twitter, gets to the heart of the matter by asking the important question on the minds of many; “How many times could ryan howard circle the globe with 5-dollar footlongs with his new contract?”

His conclusion? “Some really shaky and inconsistent math- I’m at brunch so I don’t have earth’s circumference +latitude stats but he’s only gettin 1 lap max”

Merely one lap? Clearly the Phillies got a good deal here…

wolf9309
5 years 4 months ago

my math may be off… but I got about 2.99 times for his extension. That’s a lotta sub.

wolf9309
5 years 4 months ago

at the equator

nymets4581
5 years 4 months ago

He couldn’t make it even 1/5 of the way around the world. the circumference of the earth is 131,480,184 feet. Even if the subs were one dollar, he still couldn’t make it around the globe once. Add in the 5 dollar factor, can’t even make it a 5th of the way around.

5 years 4 months ago

This man is correct. So inquiring minds can see the numbers: breaking it down using only the $125,000,000 extension total and circling the globe at the equator (24 901.55 miles or 131,480,184 feet, as said above)… At $5 a foot you can travel 25 million feet, or 19.01% (less than 1/5th) of the total distance.

TwinsVet
5 years 4 months ago

Advanced metrics are always going to have problems when they’re reliant on subjective data (UZR with field impact, WAR with positional impact). They can be modified according to popular sentiment.

However, more basic stats like OBP, BA, RBI, etc., are always objectively immovable.

This is the reason some of us get frustrated on these boards; “Zobrist has a better WAR and therefore is a better player” is too-often the supposed end-all-be-all in a discussion.

Metrics, especially advanced metrics with their subjective elements, are merely tools; not facts.

5 years 4 months ago

That’s the point though.

It’s not that WAR is wrong in saying that Zobrist is better. It’s that people are wrong in assuming that WAR claims to be gospel, because the people at FanGraphs will quickly tell you otherwise.

TwinsVet
5 years 4 months ago

I agree 100%. I’m just airing the frustrations I have with the widespread abuse – in terms of interpretation.

bomberj11
5 years 4 months ago

I was always siding with UZR in terms of defense with Bay… now I’m wishing we had resigned him instead of, ugh, Mike Cameron.

jwredsox
5 years 4 months ago

I like Cameron and think he is undervalued to most Sox fans. Plus Bay’s trends were becoming scary. Last few years he was sacrificing average and K’s for power. Once that power starts to fade with age you get into a bad situation.

TwinsVet
5 years 4 months ago

This is where (*gasp*) scouting comes into play. Some people still put value in watching a player perform, and saying, “I don’t care what the numbers say, this guy is not a liability in the field”, or “I don’t care what the peripherals are, this guy is throwing smoke and he’s just a small bit of confidence away from being an ace”.

Just_MLB
5 years 4 months ago

after reading tony bernazard’s interview…i find it hilarious he is crying over being the scapegoat…after everything he put Willie through..I cant wait til Willie’s tell-all book comes out this summer….

vtadave
5 years 4 months ago

Bernazard – bitter much?

Way to take responsibility Tony. May as well call up AT&T and cancel your service. That phone ain’t ringing any time soon.

Just_MLB
5 years 4 months ago

I love it…what comes around goes around…i cant wait til Willie drops it on the Wilpons and Tony B., Omar was the ONLY one in his corner..Jerry Curl Manuel will also be in the book too..

East Coast Bias
5 years 4 months ago

Jerry Curl Manuel… awesome nickname! hahaa

I was unaware of this tell all book by Willy. Really looking forward to it now though!

j6takish
5 years 4 months ago

I’m reading that article and the comments and trying to make sense of it, apparently Micheal Cuddyer’s defense should now be Ichiro calibur

nymets4581
5 years 4 months ago

bay was never a BAD fielder. He just has very little range. I know that range is a part of defense, but his defense aside from his range is excellent. He hasn’t made an error in the outfield in quite a while.

East Coast Bias
5 years 4 months ago

Bay had an awesome catch in the second game of the double header today. Don’t know if you saw…

East Coast Bias
5 years 4 months ago

I’m wrong. It was in the first game.

strikethree
5 years 4 months ago

I still think he’s a bad fielder — all you have to do is use your eyes. I’ve watched enough Met games to know that the guy is a below average fielder.

I’m not so sure they correctly adjusted for Fenway. Besides, the Fenway numbers are what? A year and a half? Small sample size.

In any case, the contract is bad simply because of the market at the time. It’s not just about the dollars and years — it’s also about WHO else was bidding at the time. The Mets could have saved millions and that’s why it’s a bad contract.

5 years 4 months ago

Most players didn’t actually see a substantial change in their UZR numbers. It was the guys who played in weird ballparks, like Boston, Houston and Colorado, that saw big changes in their UZR data.

And considering that Bay’s UZR/150 in 2007-2008 was about -18 and his average DRS for 2007-2009 was about -6, I think that we can comfortably say that he’s below average. Maybe not nearly as bad as previously indicated, but he’s still a liability in left.

TwinsVet
5 years 4 months ago

Cuddy’s arm is equitable to Ichiro’s – he merely lacks the ability to cover as much ground.

5 years 4 months ago

Even so, nobody has argued that Zobrist is better than Pujols. It was just one season, one where Zobrist managed to have everything come together pretty much perfectly.

I think that if you asked pretty much any well-educated analyst, they’ll tell you that Pujols is better than Zobrist, and almost assuredly the best player in the game. You don’t use one year’s worth of one statistic to make that kind of statement.

5 years 4 months ago

At age 31 he got better defensively? Research shows that the defensive prime for position players is generally the age 21-25 seasons. If anything, Bay should be getting worse defensively at this point.

Also, both UZR and DRS have Bay as below average so far in 2010.

0bsessions
5 years 4 months ago

Errors are about the worst measure of outfielder defense you can possibly muster. An error is not given to players who don’t even get to the ball. You don’t get an error for reading a ball wrong or making a diving catch for something and missing it (Which generally results in an extra base, especially for a corner outfielder) or just plain not being fast enough to get to the ball. These are all things Jason Bay is a below average fielder because of.

vtadave
5 years 4 months ago

Stop please. There’s simply no way to spin Jason Bay’s defense as anything other than well below average. You cite UZR to say he got better, then say that “it’s crap”. Ok, how about the Fielding Bible awards? Among left-fielders, Bay is not even mentioned – because he’s not WORTH mentioning.

5 years 4 months ago

Ok, take it, I’m fine with it, I mean after all, it’s only a matter of time till his knees go anyway. The dude is awful on defense, just because he’s played well for a month doesn’t mean a thing. Small sample sizes are funny like that.

East Coast Bias
5 years 4 months ago

Well said, brotha! Most people don’t really understand how to read a market properly.