Asking Price For Scott Downs

8:02pm: The Blue Jays are asking the Mets for a top prospect in exchange for Downs according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (via Twitter). The Twins have assigned a scout to watch the Blue Jays' relievers, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.

7:48am: Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos has the best reliever available in Scott Downs, and he knows it.  Check out these asking prices for two months of Downs' services, courtesy of George A. King III of the New York Post: Joba Chamberlain or Jesus Montero from the Yankees, Casey Kelly or Jose Iglesias from the Red Sox (Montero link from SI's Jon Heyman via Twitter).  With almost 80 hours remaining until the trade deadline, it doesn't hurt to ask.

Other teams are also trying to buy low on Chamberlain, who sports a 5.95 ERA, 10.0 K/9, and 3.6 BB/9 in 42.3 relief innings this year.  The Diamondbacks also tried to get Chamberlain as part of a Dan Haren deal.  Joba is under team control through 2013 and arbitration-eligible for the first time after this season.

Regarding the Yankees' search for a bench bat, King says they've spoken to the Orioles about Ty Wigginton.  The O's are dangling Miguel Tejada, who's generated only lukewarm interest from the Yanks.  Tejada is said to be the Phillies' primary infield target.  As for a Yankees-Orioles deal, SI's Jon Heyman tweeted two days ago that O's owner Peter Angelos doesn't want to trade with his division rival.


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249 Comments on "Asking Price For Scott Downs"


philpbarnes
5 years 1 month ago

Kelly or Iglesias?

Id rather just put Bill Hall in the BP than trade one of those two for a relief pitcher.

CSPACED25
5 years 1 month ago

NO kidding and Joba from the Yanks??? Downs is having a good year but c’mon talk about waisting other team’s time!

johnsmith4
5 years 1 month ago

Hey…don’t through this “waisting other team’s time” at us when they are the ones who came to the Jays about their interest in Downs…the Jays didn’t come to them…

Mick_Stepp
5 years 1 month ago

Yeah, it’s an over-reach but don’t start acting like Joba’s the second coming. He’s not worth as much as you think.

jeffdg
5 years 1 month ago

Joba is an unkown on any other team. He has a long way to go to become a reliable MLB pitcher.

Guest
5 years 1 month ago

He was the second coming before the Yankees tried to make him into a SP and screwed him up completely … If I were the Yankees, I’d trade him…

jeffdg
5 years 1 month ago

Dont forget, the Jays packaged up 2 prospects with a veteran for Escobar. I imagine if they could convince the Bosox to give up Kelly, it would include veterans for the stretch drive AND a prospect going to Boston. And Downs will be worth a minimum of 2 draft picks (likely a supplemental pick and a second round pick; likely wont be signed by a top 15 team for fear of giving up a 1st round pick). Bosox love their high draft picks.

mattchu12
5 years 1 month ago

I thought I was crazy about offering Eduardo Nunez. . . . .Joba isn’t even on the table for a reliever not named Joakim Soria as far as I’m concerned.

jimithin9
5 years 1 month ago

Scott Downsyndrome is nothing special. “Let me trade my average middle reliever for your top ace pitching prospect!” Sounds like that fantasy baseball owner that just doesn’t get it…

grant77
5 years 1 month ago

Average middle reliever or best LH reliever for the past 4 years in the midst of a stellar season?

woadude
5 years 1 month ago

He is not the best, dont be delusional..he is the best one AVAILABLE FOR TRADE..meaning if you want a good bullpen arm, he is the best AVAILABLE…Kelly and Iglesias are not available for a bullpen arm… Iglesias is a defensive wizard with really soft hands and only has to develop american culture like not celebrating when he hits a home run…and Kelly has so much promise its unreal….Downs will not get it done for any of those guys…get real

johnsmith4
5 years 1 month ago

AA doesn’t need to trade Downs….However, these teams need a quality 8th inning reliever. So, if they don’t make it worth AA’s while, why should he trade Downs. If they want Downs….then they have to make AA want to trade Downs.

dc21892
5 years 1 month ago

Actually considering his age and what AA is trying to do, he does. He’s trying to rebuild. You don’t do that with 35 year old RP. As for asking for Kelley or Iglesias, that’s good for him to see if the teams are that desparate, but I have faith in Theo that he won’t give up a blue chip prospect for an aging BP arm who’s having a nice year. And Joba from the Yanks? Come on. Joba isn’t having the best year, but he’s so young and the potential is there.

Parkes
5 years 1 month ago

The point that you’re missing is that if the Jays keep Downs, they still get two draft picks assuming that they offer him arb and he declines. So, no, AA doesn’t have to trade Downs at all.

woadude
5 years 1 month ago

enjoy your draft pick compensation

woadude
5 years 1 month ago

enjoy your draft pick compensation…all i have to say

jimithin9
5 years 1 month ago

yeah…eric gagne was great and in the middle of a stellar season when we got him too. and downs has a 3.80 career era // 1.37 career whip? thrilling.

5 years 1 month ago

I hear career numbers are all that matters. Seriously. Look at his stats. Notice a pattern? His ERA is high every year he was used as a starter. Every year he’s been used properly as a reliever (which he’s obviously being traded as) he’s been stellar.

jeffdg
5 years 1 month ago

Average Middle Reliever? Who are you kidding? You should watch some baseball games before voicing your opinion — rotohead.

ju1ced
5 years 1 month ago

Always great when someone who doesn’t watch baseball gives their two cents.

ronny9
5 years 1 month ago

Downs is a good reliever; but if the sox give up either of those players i will no longer be watching their games every night.

As a Sox fan i would rather them save the prospects and go with the bullpen they have. I know how unreliable the pen has been for the Sox thus far, but two months of Scott Downs is not worth the SS of the future or the best pitching prospect in your system.

I would rather finish third and not go to the playoffs then give up that much talent for Downs.

Leo Nunez? maybe, Scott Downs for 2 months? No way in hell

johnsmith4
5 years 1 month ago

I agree with your assessment….but…at the same time…if I am AA….I am not interested in trading Downs if I am just going to get marginal players. After all, it isn’t AA’s job to help the Sox make the playoffs or help the Yanks win the series….unless…they make it worth his while.

ronny9
5 years 1 month ago

I couldn’t agree more, it’s not in the Blue Jays’ best interest to give Downs away for 80 cents on the dollar. But if that’s the asking price (and i think we all know that’s very far fetched) I would kindly wish them luck in 4th place with no shot now or in the future.

I would be shocked if the Jays actually get a prospect with that level of talent for Downs. Can’t blame them for starting the conversations way over their heads in value, but it’s just not feasible. Maybe if the cubs were in contention they would give up a player like that for a rental like Downs; but a well run org like the Yankees or Sox will not do it in a million years.

adameb
5 years 1 month ago

Don’t forget that its not just 2 months Downs; its also 2 picks you get since he’s type A.

ronny9
5 years 1 month ago

I’m well aware of the rules of signing a type A free agent.

I also don’t believe that a team that has an unprotected pick will be willing to give that pick up to sign a middle reliever. He’s a good player, but this is similar to the Juan Cruz situation: Cruz was a type A and was offered arbitration, nobody wanted to give up a pick so nobody signed him and the team didn’t get any picks.

I agree that Downs is better than Cruz, but when he was a type A nobody wanted to sign him b/c they didn’t want to give the kind of money he was looking for PLUS a pick for a middle reliever.

So you’re taking a gamble here; you give away a good player for a middle reliever. You might get a top pick if someone with an unprotected pick signs him; but you may also get stuck with overpaying him for next year if he accepts it. He may also be signed by a team with a protected pick, and he may also be signed by a team that signs a higher ranked type A as well as Downs.

There are alot more variables than just “2 picks since he’s a type A.”

5 years 1 month ago

Actually, the Royals signed Cruz and the Dbacks DID get picks, but Cruz is a horrible comp. Downs has a much better track record than Juan Cruz and the added bonus of being a lefty who can get righties out.

And I don’t get the constant posting on this board that it’s somehow a bad thing if Downs decides to accept arbitration. What wrong with a stellar late inning lefty on a one year deal? Since he’s not a closer or coming off a large deal he won’t get a ton of money (like the $8M for Soriano last year).

And even if one of the picks is a comp pick and the other is a 2nd rounder (in what is projected to be a VERY good draft), it’s still better than taking some crappy C prospect package full of guys that might be marginal contributors at the big league level.

ronny9
5 years 1 month ago

he is making 4 million this yr and as a veteran with his numbers he will easily net 6 at least.

there’s a lot wrong with that in my opinoin.

adameb
5 years 1 month ago

I definitely can’t argue with your logic, but as you said Cruz was notably different.

2 solid RHP years in NL West vs 4 solid LHP years in AL East. (And 3 of Downs 4 year were better than either of Cruz’s)
Cruz had given up 12 HR in those 2 years/110 IP, and Downs 12 HR in those 4 years 220 IP

I guess time will tell what he’s going to yield, but to paraphrase, ‘Winning now costs prospects; how many games do you want to win?”

woadude
5 years 1 month ago

dont forget he would have to decline arb, which is a gamble…which they won with Billy Wagner and lightning doesnt strike twice

jeffdg
5 years 1 month ago

Dude, he is a Type A Free Agent at the end of the season OR the Red Sox would resign him.

ronny9
5 years 1 month ago

Dude, i don’t care what he is; he’s a middle reliever and Casey Kelly is the best pitching prospect in the org and Iglesias is (hopefully) the SS of the future.

and see my answer to adameb about the type A bs… it doesn’t necessarily mean what you think it means.. especially when you’re talking middle relievers (who will be looking for 3 year deals in the 15 to 18 million range.)

jeffdg
5 years 1 month ago

Dude, there is no “thinking”. It is what it is. He will be a Type A Free Agent if he declines Arbitration, and as such, the Blue Jays will be compensated with a supplemental first round pick, AND, a first, second, third or fourth round pick from the signing team. There is not a winning team in baseball that wouldn’t be willing to sacrifice a second, third or forth round pick for such a reliable pitcher.

First round? I agree, i dont think any teams will want to do that.

YanksFanSince78
5 years 1 month ago

Did you just hear what you said?

“There is not a winning team in baseball that wouldn’t be willing to sacrifice a second, third or forth round pick for such a reliable pitcher.

First round? I agree, i dont think any teams will want to do that”.

Any team that is a “winning team” probably would have to give up a 1st rnd pick to sign Downs unless they sign an additional FA that year as well ranked higher.

jeffdg
5 years 1 month ago

Exactly.

jeffdg
5 years 1 month ago

Burnett cost a 3rd Round pick, as i recall.

ronny9
5 years 1 month ago

Yes b/c the Yankees spent a half billion dollars that off season and decided to sign 3 of the top type A’s.

another ridiculous, unreliable and less likely than a blue moon example

jeffdg
5 years 1 month ago

Arent you guys signing Cliff Lee this winter?

ronny9
5 years 1 month ago

so you would be ok with having Downs for 2 months a pick in the 30’s range of next year’s draft and a pick in the 40’s or 50’s of the same draft for Casey kelly or Iglesias???

Thank god you’re not running the team..

and he’s 34 years old so a team that is wanting to sign him will have to give up the pick and sign an aging middle reliever to a contract that would be quite a risk in my opinion. I will agree that he is a good reliable pitcher; but he’s 34, will be looking for 3 guaranteed years on the open market and if he doesn’t get that he may accept arbitration. If that were to happen he could end up making 6 to 7 million next year.

So in the Red Sox case; if he accepted arb they would be paying Papelbon, Downs, Okajima and Ramirez (all assuming reasonable arbitration raises) 25 million or close to it.

For any team, small or large market; that is insanity

jeffdg
5 years 1 month ago

(1) What if he is the difference in making the playoffs and winning a WS?
(2) Would you trade Kelly for Downs and Bucholz and another pick? Dont forget how well the Bosox draft. Those picks have significant value to a team like Boston.
(3) He wouldnt make more than $5.5mm in arb, and will NOT accept arb, as he will land a multi-year deal. This is his last contract.

ronny9
5 years 1 month ago

so you picked one of the better supplemental picks in the last few years by any team. The sox do draft well; but they are not going to hit the lottery with a pick in the 30’s every time. therefore it is impossible and ridiculous to ask me if i would trade Kelly for Downs and Bucholz plus another pick.

It’s just as accurate to ask me if i would trade Kelly for two months of Downs and 2 guys nobody will ever know the names of bc there are tons of those examples as well.

jeffdg
5 years 1 month ago

Ok, same trade but with Ranaudo (or Brentz) and Workman along with Downs?

dc21892
5 years 1 month ago

I agree. But I don’t think Theo is that dumb. He knows what he can get for those prospects. Fielder or AGon in the offseason if he wanted. Or we can just keep them and hope they pan out.

Zeppelin5083
5 years 1 month ago

Lol Pete Angelos not wanting to trade within the division. YOUR TEAM BLOWS! Rebuild anyway you can!

PujolsHollidayWestbrook
5 years 1 month ago

I was thinking the same thing. “Division rival” HA!!! Wigginton and Tejada will be LONG gone from either team by time (if ever) the Orioles are “division rivals” of the Yankees again.

bbxxj
5 years 1 month ago

Yeah, its not like Wigginton and/or Tejada will be superstars for the Yankees who will haunt the O’s for years to come in divisional games. Both would be backups and Tejada is gone by the end of the year anyways.

I could maybe understand not wanting to send Tejada there because it would be like getting a team legend like Glavine back after a long time away and then a few months later trading him to the Phils. But Ty? I cant see the emotional connection there.

mstrchef13
5 years 1 month ago

Heyman is a moron. His “source” is probably Rosenthal who hates Angelos with a passion going back to his days with the Baltimore Sun as a beat writer. Angelos is one of the smartest people on the planet. For starters, it is unlikely that he would think that way; if he can upgrade the team by making a deal with the Yankees, he would do so. Wigginton is a free agent at the end of the season whom the Yanks would be unlikely to resign, so no harm done since this season is a wash. Secondly, even in the unlikely event that Angelos did think this way, he would NEVER be stupid enough to say so publicly to anyone. So for Heyman to report it means either he made it up, he got the information from someone who made it up, or once again a sportswriter for a major national entity is passing off his opinion as fact.

mstrchef13
5 years 1 month ago

Heyman is a moron. His “source” is probably Rosenthal who hates Angelos with a passion going back to his days with the Baltimore Sun as a beat writer. Angelos is one of the smartest people on the planet. For starters, it is unlikely that he would think that way; if he can upgrade the team by making a deal with the Yankees, he would do so. Wigginton is a free agent at the end of the season whom the Yanks would be unlikely to resign, so no harm done since this season is a wash. Secondly, even in the unlikely event that Angelos did think this way, he would NEVER be stupid enough to say so publicly to anyone. So for Heyman to report it means either he made it up, he got the information from someone who made it up, or once again a sportswriter for a major national entity is passing off his opinion as fact.

wolf9309
5 years 1 month ago

well then, AA, enjoy your draft picks next year…

5 years 1 month ago

And this is the point of all this. He’s HAPPY to take the draft picks, so why shouldn’t he ask for elite prospects and hope somebody gets desperate?

wolf9309
5 years 1 month ago

yup, and he can hope that finally he doesn’t get screwed out of a first round compensation pick. Makes sense, they’re at the point where they really should be building through the draft.

5 years 1 month ago

Can’t blame AA for asking, but he must be delusional if he thinks 2 months of Downs is worth any of the mentioned guys.

Guest
5 years 1 month ago

This guy is absolutely crazy.

johnsmith4
5 years 1 month ago

Crazy like a Fox….why do a deal when you are only offered guys you don’t want

iains
5 years 1 month ago

No, not really. AA would be perfectly happy to take the high draft picks or even re-up Downs for a couple more years. Remember, AA has no reason to sell, so if you want him, you better be willing to pay the price.

Yankees420
5 years 1 month ago

“Remember, AA has no reason to sell….”

That’s not really true, he has plenty of reasons to sell, just not any reason to sell for a marginal return. The way I see it is that any prospect(s) obtained from trading Downs will only be a couple years away from the big leagues (estimation on my part), while if he holds on to Downs and collects the picks it’s more likely that those prospects don’t see the big leagues until 2014 at the earliest. Now, of course AA could find a true gem in the draft and said gem could be up within a couple of years, but the odds are not in favor of that outcome. I’m not advocating that Downs should be traded for the sake of trading him, just that AA does in fact have reasons to sell.

CosaOne
5 years 1 month ago

Both the Sox and Yankees are way too smart for that and both clubs can use internal options to resolve some of their bullpen issues. The Yankees can transition Robertson into the 8th (already started) and call up Nova, Albaladejo and possibly Melancon to take over for the corpses of Moseley, Chan Ho and Guadin. The Red Sox can switch Doubront, or Bowden into relievers to finish the season with the big league club. No need to give up top flight prospects.

iains
5 years 1 month ago

Frankly, if the Sox and the Yankees had internal options that they were happy with, they wouldn’t be shopping around.

CosaOne
5 years 1 month ago

Thats not true at all, its the GMs job to pursue trades if he thinks they can help the club AND the cost is reasonable. The Yankees dont need Downs, it would be great to have him but its not like they are lost with out the guy. They won the World Series with Robertson, Joba and Hughes setting up for Mariano. They could employ that exact same formula and be fine.

johnsmith4
5 years 1 month ago

and yet….previous posts have them listed as the favourite to get Downs…

CosaOne
5 years 1 month ago

Great so if we are going by previous reports wouldnt Lee and Haren be on the team? Considering those same previous reports had Lee to to the Yankees as a done deal and then the Yankees being the favorites for Haren.

If the Yankees trade for Downs and give up Joba i’ll gladly come back to the thread and say you are right but I doubt that happens

johnsmith4
5 years 1 month ago

Don’t be silly…I am more interested in reading your opinion and perspective than reading you think I am right..this is one of the best discussion boards you will find compared to any topic board (business…sports…politics…etc)….great posters.

That being said….my understanding of the Lee situation was Yanks and Mariners had a verbal agreement…and the Mariners turned around and used the deal to get Smoak from the Rangers….it looks like the Yanks got shafted by some dishonesty from Mariners

CosaOne
5 years 1 month ago

I presented those two examples to show that this off season reports have been shaky at best. Even though they have been listed as favorites that means absolutely nothing.

I’m really not trying to make the case that Downs isnt a good player but he’s just not worth the names listed above. I asked another poster here and i think its a valid comparison would you trade JP Arencibia for 2 months of Billy Wagner?

johnsmith4
5 years 1 month ago

Sorry for the delay response….this thread is nuts…it just crashed my IE.

The question has to be asked within the context of the situation….It is like asking will you trade a Jeff Kent at the start of his major league career for a David Cone at the “tail” end of his career.

Without context, the answer is no….but…the Jays did it and won a World Series….they were in a position to win the Series and were strong at the position…so…it can be a yes.

As for Arencibia for Wagner, I would consider it if my team was a strong contender…..If this was the case I would probably counter with Arencibia for Wagner and your second or third best prospect (or whatever prospect is a notch below Arencibia).

CosaOne
5 years 1 month ago

Sorry i missed this David Cone was not at the “tail” end of his career when the Jays traded for him, he was 29 and in the middle of a 2.88 season as a starter. He won the CY Young 2 years later. If Cone was at the “tail” end of his career at 29 then what is Downs at since hes 34 now? He gave the Jays 53 innings of 2.55 era ball not counting the playoffs. How many innings will Downs pitch for the team who trades for him 30-35 and theres no guarantee that all of those innings will be high leverage important innings

iains
5 years 1 month ago

Enjoy those internal options then.

CosaOne
5 years 1 month ago

Id much rather enjoy the internal options than trade Joba or Kelly for 2 months of a 34 year old reliever. Its not a dig at Downs it just doesnt make sense.

Would you trade JP Arencibia for 2 months of Billy Wagner?

iains
5 years 1 month ago

The Jays pretty much did that back in 1992 when they acquired David Cone for a very young Jeff Kent.

CosaOne
5 years 1 month ago

David Cone was a 29 year elite starter who came in and solidified the rotation. He threw 53 innings of 2.55 era ball. When they traded for him he was in the middle of a 2.88 season as a starter. And Kent was a 24 year old 2b with decent numbers in the minors and a decent mediocre season. I dont think the situations are that similar

johnsmith4
5 years 1 month ago

There are some similarities…..perhaps…it was better to indicate Cone was a rental for the Jays….never the less….it does illustrate my point and the thinking with the Jays…

AA is overstocking on premium prospects to be prepared when he needs to get the final piece…at SS…has Escobar….Hechavaria (correction on spelling welcomed)…and Thon…
You can do these type of deals when you are overloaded in prospects and close to the top.

jeffdg
5 years 1 month ago

EXACTLY!

But of course, those teams dont know more than CosaOne and Ronny9 at MLBTR!

CosaOne
5 years 1 month ago

No need to be a jerk, this is what the purpose of comments section of this website is for, people post their opinions here. You dont agree that fine, just say why. And this statement, “But of course, those teams dont know more than CosaOne and Ronny9 at MLBTR!”, is only true if either the Red Sox or the Yankees end up trading Joba, Kelly or Iglesias. If not then then maybe they thought the exact same thing we did, namely that Downs is a good player but not worth the price tag.

jeffdg
5 years 1 month ago

“is only true if either the Red Sox or the Yankees end up trading Joba, Kelly or Iglesias. ”

How many times you watched Kelly or Iglesias play?

CosaOne
5 years 1 month ago

Ive seen Kelly pitch twice in person and video of him on other occasions, Ive never seen Iglesias. Whats your point though? Ive read a lot about them from people that are actually paid to evaluate baseball players. Even if I had seen both guys 15 times what does that matter, its not like these are unknown guys or scrub minor leaguers that Im saying shouldnt be moved. These a reason evaluators rank these guys highly.

How many times have you seen them play? If never then why do you want them? Probably for the same reason that people are arguing against trading them because they are ranked highly and scouts see high upside at a low cost.

Believe me i hate the Red Sox and I hope they trade Kelly I just dont think its going to happen.

jeffdg
5 years 1 month ago

Yeah, CosaOne, those are all reliable options in the 8th inning of Game 5 of the WS.

Comedy..you are reading too many “prospects” reports, and not watching real MLB baseball.

CosaOne
5 years 1 month ago

Its not comedy at all and I watch plenty of baseball so you dont need to worry about that. As for 8th inning of game 5 in the World Series I’d be fine with Hughes pitching that inning but most likely if its a make of break game Mariano will be pitching. Remember him…hes still on the team. Go back and read what i wrote about those guys, I said they could be called up to replace Chan ho, Guadin and Moseley NONE of those guys would be pitching in the 8th inning of any world series game

jeffdg
5 years 1 month ago

Your team is looking at reliable relief pitchers, because they dont want any of the guys you mentioned pitching in important situations. This discussion has nothing to do with the players you mention, but rather, the Yankees understanding that if they can bring in a reliable late inning reliever — they may be unbeatable. Again.

Your team is interested in Scott Downs, and you should be thankful if you get him.

Yankees420
5 years 1 month ago

“Your team is interested in Scott Downs, and you should be thankful if you get him.”

Not if the price is our best prospect or a much younger/cheaper and more controllable pitcher with more upside.

5 years 1 month ago

Reach for the stars, grab hold of the moon Alex.

andrewyf
5 years 1 month ago

Alternatively, reach for the stars, never get near them and miss the moon entirely in the process. A much more likely scenario.

Let_Timmy_Smoke
5 years 1 month ago

I think something will get done. If those are the actual names Toronto is asking for, that’s the ceiling, and they’re probably hoping the Yanks and Red Sox will panic and, to prevent their rival from getting Downs, will cave in. Wait until the final day, if Toronto sees it’s not working, they’ll lower their price.

I can see the Jays getting someone like Reddick or Kalish from the Sox, and someone like Laird, Nunez, or Noesi from the Yanks. Or, they can just offer arbitration, hope Downs rejects it, and pick up the two comp picks next year.

YanksFanSince78
5 years 1 month ago

Anthopolous’ main objective now that his team his out of contention, should be to shed payroll and to acquire as many assets as he can for the future. Downs is a good middle reliever but he’s a FA after the season and while he will most likely have Type A FA I’m sure of two things: A) 99% of all teams will NOT want to give up draft pick compensation to sign a 34 going on 35 yo relief pitcher. B) The Jays would be making a mistake offering him arbitration inorder to be in a position to get compensation.

That being the case it makes 100% common sense for them to trade Downs. Take the best offer you can get from teams and move on it. Asking for guys like Joba, Kelly and Iglesias does nothing to advance the objective of getting an asset in return for Downs, except make you look silly for overvalueing Down’s market value or making it seem as if you think very little of your fellow GMs or rather, you’re a fool.

I’m all for teams trying to be a little greedy and holding out a little to get the most for the players that contending teams might covet but don’t be a whore about it. If they could get a B level prospect for a package of C level prospects then they should be happy. But asking for a young commodity already at the mlb level or promising blue chip prospects is aiming to high and runs the risk of immediately turning teams off who might decide to look elsewhere simply because they don’t see you settling for a night at Apple Bee’s when you originally demanded dinner at Ruth Chris’.

johnsmith4
5 years 1 month ago

I would laugh in your face if asked me to do something for you in exchange for dinner at Apple Bee’s

However, I am willing to negotiate where I will do that something for you plus offer you dinner at Apple Bee’s in exchange for that dinner at Ruth Chris’.

5 years 1 month ago

Johnsmith4, the point is no team will offer anywhere close to what he wants. So AA has two choices; settle for a more realistic package of B/C prospects or hold onto Downs till he hits free agency. The first choice is obviously better for the Jays in the long run.

No 2 month relief rental is worth a top prospect, not even Soria.

johnsmith4
5 years 1 month ago

I see your point if those were AA’s only two choices….but…he has other choices…resign him or take compensation picks….these options seem better than marginal prospects….

YanksFanSince78
5 years 1 month ago

AA can certainly try and resign Downs after the season but he could still trade him and do that once he becomes a FA anyway. Downs is going to be a type A FA next year and the only way the Jays could get compensation is to offer him arbitration. a) It’s unlikely any team will sign him and give up their 1st rnd pick next year b) if Downs and his agent understand that recent history has shown that only elite closers get signed as type A’s then they might decide it better for them to accept the Jays aritration offer. If that happens then is it really wise for the Jays to have a relief pitcher earning north of the $4 mil he earned this year?

5 years 1 month ago

The picks aren’t guaranteed though. He only has a score of 74 points, while still a Type A, barely compared to other positions. The way I understand it is that if a team signs two FA, both Type A’s worth 74 and 78 points respectively, the team that had the 78 point FA receives a comp pick and the signing team’s first rounder, while the other team would only receive the comp pick.

The point is that there are going to be a lot of FA out there worth more than Downs and two picks isn’t guaranteed, hell, a lot of good relievers have been shut out of the league the last few years when offered arbitration and rejected it. AA might find himself forced to pay Downs next year whether he wants to or not because no one is risking it on middle/end of their career relievers these days.

zeroes
5 years 1 month ago

No, that’s incorrect. The team with the 74 would just get bumped to the teams next pick. So the signing team would give up their first and second round picks in that order. Or their second and third in some cases.

penpaper
5 years 1 month ago

“The way I understand it is that if a team signs two FA, both Type A’s worth 74 and 78 points respectively, the team that had the 78 point FA receives a comp pick and the signing team’s first rounder, while the other team would only receive the comp pick.”

They would receive the second rounder. See: 2009 Yankees. See: 2009 MLB draft

jeffdg
5 years 1 month ago

Soria is signed long-term, to a team friendly contact. Do your homework.

MaineSox
5 years 1 month ago

He said “No 2 month relief rental is worth a top prospect, not even Soria.” He was making a comparison, Downs is not Soria and not even two months of Soria would be worth a top prospect. He’s not implying that Soria has two months left on his contract, but rather that IF he only had two months left not even he would be worth it.

YanksFanSince78
5 years 1 month ago

Ahhhh but you see. Sometimes I have a hankering for a skanky chick who thinks Apple Bee’s is fine dining because it’s not in the food court and has four walls, a roof and a seperate entrance from the mall. :)

Just kidding. I’ve upgraded my standards in women over the eyars. That means they want Red Lobster or better.

johnsmith4
5 years 1 month ago

It sounds like you and I have a deal 😉

YanksFanSince78
5 years 1 month ago

Ummmm…..unless you’re a woman “johnsmith4″ this conversation has gone a little weird…haha.

5 years 1 month ago

Where is the dislike button? You seem to be greatly missing the point here. First of all, Downs has been excellent for a few years now, so it’s probable somebody WILL sign him. Maybe not to give up a first rounder, but after signing another Type A, or a 2nd division team? Absolutely.

Secondly, the Jays would be just fine if he took arbitration and they had him for another year at low money. So please tell me why it would be a mistake to offer arbitration? 2 picks (including at minimum 1 first rounder) or a stellar, late inning lefty on a 1 year deal. Seems like a pretty valuable chip to me.

5 years 1 month ago

And I’m not saying they should expect to get guys like Kelly, but they shouldn’t settle for a mediocre package just because they can’t get better.

jeffdg
5 years 1 month ago

(1) The BLue Jays have no need to shed payroll. They are owned by a company with more money than the Steinbrenners.(2) Your assertion that 99% of teams would not sign Downs is incorrect. He is a Type A Free Agent, meaning the signing team will have to give up 1 draft pick (the other being a supplemental pick). Any team finishing in the bottom 15, would give up their 2nd round pick, or 3rd round pick if they sign multiple players (ones having a higher rating than Downs). There are tons of scenario’s where he signs, and he will sign a multi year last contract with the Jays or other team. He is that good. And anyone who doesnt think Down is worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick doesnt know baseball.(3) I dont think anyone in baseball, save for the brilliant yankees fans at MLBTR, are suggesting AA “looks silly” or is a “Fool”. Rather, he is doing his job.(4) I did not not read the final paragraph of your post, as the first two were complete nonsense. Have a nice day.

zeroes
5 years 1 month ago

Yeah, yeah, and at past deadlines, we heard nobody would give up a draft pick for Justin Speier, Marco Scutaro, Frank Catalanotto, or Kelvim Escobar either. And those guys along with Rod Barajas and Ted Lilly would be fools to turn down arbitration.And yet the Jays have Adam Lind, Brett Cecil, Trystan Magnuson, Aaron Sanchez, Asher Wojciechowski, Noah Syndergaard, Kellen Sweeney, Marcus Knecht, and a few others thanks to the compensation system. The Jays know how to work the system. Worst case, they get Scott Downs for another year. No reason they can’t trade him then either.

Guest
5 years 1 month ago

You can sit here and laugh at him and call him crazy, but I’ve yet to see him fail to get whatever he wants in a trade yet. I’ll see what he can pull out of the hat before I start insulting AA.

jeffdg
5 years 1 month ago

How great has Escobar been thus far?

Shoeless_Joe
5 years 1 month ago

Would think Sox and Yanks would understand the value of supplemental pick via Chamberlin himself and Bucholz. The Jays have done fine enough theirselves with their supplemental round picks the past few years to demand this type of return.

Either other teams give the Jays a piece they like moving forward, or they’ll get that piece through the draft. They are not going to settle for nothing prospects.

ju1ced
5 years 1 month ago

Bingo. Cecil is an example for the Jays as well.

moonraker45
5 years 1 month ago

Lind as well

5 years 1 month ago

Honestly I think asking for Kelly is outrageous but asking for Joba is a starting point. Joba’s only value now is based on his having 3 more years of team control and a big fastball (that he can’t seem to control). If Joba’s value was measured in prospect terms he would probably barely make the Yankees top 10. I’m sorry but right now this guy is viewed as no more than a middle reliever himself, he hasn’t taken to starting or being at the back of the bullpen so I don’t think we can anoint him the chosen one. Sure he has 3 extra years of team control, but starting next year that will be valued in millions (and since he started his arb. number will be higher than most middle relievers). Yes the potential is there but now it is costly, no longer are you getting it at a league minimum.

New York will have to give up a decent prospect for Downs, he might not be a closer but he would go a LOOONNNGGG way to shaping up that bullpen.

johnsmith4
5 years 1 month ago

Excellent point….AA is probably viewing Joba as another Brandon Morrow situation….the gap between both sides probably can be closed.

Kelly is a long shot. For it to materialize, Boston would have to be open to getting some good or a very good prospect in return. Must be very difficult to reach agreement because, presently, Kelly and the Toronto prospects coveted by Boston are all wearing halos within their respective organizations. However, given Boston is one of the favourites…it makes you wonder.

jeffdg
5 years 1 month ago

Agree 100% on Joba. Downs would be their second best reliever, pitch 5 games a week and might be their 3rd or 4th best pitcher overall.
Casey Kelly is a long shot im sure, but i imagine the blue jays are offering more than Downs for him.

paorta2
5 years 1 month ago

Third? Really? Sabbathia, Burnett, Downs, then Riviera? I assume you’re valuing Downs higher than Burnett, not Riviera, but that’s still a bit ridiculous. Downs would be one of the best arms in their bullpen, but not the best, and still not better than Burnett (unless Burnett loses a hand in a hot tub fan).

jeffdg
5 years 1 month ago

AJ? Are you kidding me? AJ is the only player on the Yankees roster, that could single handedly lose a playoff serious for you. He is as reliable as British Petroleum when the chips are on the table. He is scary in those situations. Can give up 6 runs in 10 minutes, and break your heart.

paorta2
5 years 1 month ago

I don’t really like Burnett, but I still think he’s a better pitcher than Downs. “Better” is an inexact word to use in this situation: Burnett will give you more innings, and pitch some great games, but Downs will be more reliable over the innings he does pitch. And he’s not as dominant as Riviera where the answer is clear (between Riviera and Burnett). But I think Burnett would get you more in a trade, even ignoring age, and that’s as good a measure as any.

5 years 1 month ago

Finally some clearheaded sense on this board.

Andrew_Jackson_Pollock
5 years 1 month ago

Yankees shouldn’t offer much more than a B-level prospect since you know Girardi will just use him as a LOOGY (he’s not, of course). That should be Cashman’s negotiating ploy: “I know he can get out righties, but my manager will only use him for one lefty hitter every three games. Why the hell should I give you more than a High-A right fielder?”

5 years 1 month ago

At which point Anthopoulos says “Then why are we talking? click.”

kldhca
5 years 1 month ago

AA will offer Downs Arby if he is not dealt for guys AA wants. Downs will also get offers from other teams when and if he hits FA. AA could always reup him for 2 more years

I would think like every year a contending team will blink and give in but we will see

Let_Timmy_Smoke
5 years 1 month ago

Didn’t Billy Smith try that brinkmanship tactic with Johan Santana, hoping a contender would blink and give him the moon? How did that work out for him?

I think both the Yanks and Red Sox this year have shown that they’re NOT panicking, and will only make a deal if the price is right.

As for arbitration, AA has to take a calculated risk that Downs won’t accept it. Frankly, after what happened to Juan Cruz, and given Downs’ age, wouldn’t be a shock if Downs accepted arbitration, at which point not only do the Jays miss out on the comp picks, they also will increase their payroll, as Downs would likely command a raise.

Bird in one hand…if it’s a halfway decent offer, I’d make the trade were I the Jays.

5 years 1 month ago

Downs would get $4-5M in arbitration. The Jays would have absolutely NO problem with that. They have a low payroll due to the lousy nature of their team. They have no issues expanding it.

5 years 1 month ago

Well the thing is, they’re probably going to HAVE to expand payroll next year regardless, if they want to field a team. Wells gets a huge bump in salary, I’d have to imagine Bautista will be getting a decent raise in arb, a ton of other players are going to hit arb as well, Overbay, Downs, Frasor, Buck are all FA. They really need to think about dishing out another $4-5 mil on a mid-30s reliever.

johnsmith4
5 years 1 month ago

Sorry…Jays have plenty of room for payroll…next year..Halladay and BJ Ryan come off the books….Arencibia replaces Buck….Wallace replaces Overbay…..Escobar already replaced Gonzalez…not our issue…

5 years 1 month ago

The Jays payroll, entering next season is approximately $65M, taking raises into account. Something tells me they can afford it.

iains
5 years 1 month ago

Actually, the jays don’t have to expand payroll next year at all. Wells is already maxed out, so no change next year, the money that went to Philly in the Halladay deal is off the books. Overbay, Downs, Frasor are off the books and Gregg reups for close to what he’s at right now. Buck is replaced by Arencibia and Wallace replaces Overbay. There is plenty of pitching depth that will cover any holes in the bullpen. So if anything, the only real change in payroll will be marginal, mostly covering for a few arbitration cases.

Yankees420
5 years 1 month ago

Downs makes 4MM now, if he went to arbitration he would most likely be looking at 6MM, possibly more.

5 years 1 month ago

comparing this to the Santana situation is ridiculous. just because the Twins were morons doesn’t mean every other team has to be the same. everyone said the same thing last season when the Jays HAD to settle for less in trading Halladay. what happened then? the Jays kept Halladay and traded him in the offseason for a lot more than they were offered last summer.
AA is a smart GM, he knows what he is doing.

5 years 1 month ago

If I were the Yankees, I’d jump on the Scott Downs for Joba offer, they would immediately improve their bullpen for this year, then when Downs leaves as a Type A free agent, they would get two 1st round draft picks in next years draft to try and get the next Joba, but hopefully this time they would take someone that is not a headcase.

5 years 1 month ago

In fact, come to think of it, I would trade Joba for the two draft picks alone.

jeffdg
5 years 1 month ago

Peter D is the most sensible Yankee fan of all-time. Seriously.

bonestock94
5 years 1 month ago

I don’t see it. I’d never trade a high upside 25 year old for 2 months of a 34 year old reliever. A good reliever sure. Plus he can always accept arbitration and then you don’t get picks.

5 years 1 month ago

In which case, you then have one of the top 3 left-handed relievers in the game signed on to set up for Mariano Rivera (a dangerous 1-2 combo). That would really suck wouldn’t it.

bonestock94
5 years 1 month ago

Not at all man, don’t get me wrong I’d love to have the guy on the team. The initial trade just seems like a poor decision long term. But like they say, flags fly forever…

paorta2
5 years 1 month ago

I don’t think he’s a Yankee fan.

jeffdg
5 years 1 month ago

why he sounds intelligent!

paorta2
5 years 1 month ago

If he’s the same Peter D I’ve seen elsewhere, he’s a Jays fan.

John Meloche
5 years 1 month ago

AA is a smart GM. Why wouldn’t he ask for a top quality return for Downs? Why not ask, and if someone bites then Downs is gone. When Saturday comes around I am sure the price goes down a little but the Jays love Downs so if they dont get what they want they will keep him. AA offered arbitration to most guys last year. He will offer to Downs, if he accepts then you have a great piece in the Pen…

5 years 1 month ago

I find it doubtful that Downs would accept arbitration because this is his last chance at a big payday. He’s one of the best lefty set up men in the league at the moment so why would he settle for another one year deal?

Raylan Givens' Stetson
5 years 1 month ago

It very well might not be a big payday because teams will be very hesitant about giving up a first or second round pick to sign him. I think there have been too many precedents in the past couple of years that would tell Downs to accept arbitration if it was offered to him.

5 years 1 month ago

This is where I disagree, as shown during this trade deadline, enough teams have shown great interest in Downs that one of them would be willing to give up the pick to sign him as a free agent. Downs falls into an elite group of relief pitchers where an exception would be made.

5 years 1 month ago

Particularly for the price that the elite arm would come at…probably only 5 million a year.

John Meloche
5 years 1 month ago

I agree. The Jays will offer because Downs has an excellent chance at signing a nice contract with another team. Not many LHP who have been as solid as Downs over the past 4 years. There is a reason he is such a hot topic this deadline… Plus how can you not like a guy who writes his kids names on the mound when he comes in to pitch?

Raylan Givens' Stetson
5 years 1 month ago

I guess I have to agree with you to a certain degree. The point that I should have been making is that it can be a crap shoot. There are many variables at play such as payroll restrictions, a desire to go younger, etc. to go along with the lost draft pick. There might be one or more teams willing to sign Downs to go along with type A status, but then again there might not. You also have to take in consideration what Scoot Downs is thinking and whether or not he would accept arbitration (which we will never know until he does it). I guess the point I am trying to make is that even though he is a type A free agent, he is not a slam dunk to collect picks from like a Matt Holliday or C.C. Sabathia.

5 years 1 month ago

I think the problem with a lot of people is they look at prospects from a productivity or potential MLB player stand point. You have to try to look at them more as moving blocks, or trade chips. In other words, Joba Chamberlain could’ve gotten the Yankees Dan Haren so why would they trade him for a 2 month relief rental? At this point, Chamberlain is a project – not a prospect – but if a team like AZ is willing to make him a key part in a deal for one of the best pitchers available, his value gets inflated.

The same could be said for Kelly. The Red Sox could potentially move Kelly for a premier, impact player. The Jays asked for him last year for Halladay, but the Red Sox declined. He’s done nothing but thrive in the minors. There’s no reason to believe he won’t be a stud in the majors. That being said, a prospect’s worth is often established by past trade offers. A lot of people feel that the Red Sox could’ve had AGon last year if they were willing to part with Kelly. If they weren’t willing to part with him for AGon, why would they be willing to part with him for a 34 year old relief pitcher?

andrewyf
5 years 1 month ago

“He’s done nothing but thrive in the minors.”Except, you know, for all of this year.”There’s no reason to believe he won’t be a stud in the majors.”There’s plenty of reason to believe he won’t be a stud in the majors. He’s a pitching prospect who hasn’t succeeded above A-ball.

But the rest of your post is correct. You have to view prospects in context of the rest of the trade market, not just what some people think they might do at the major league level.

philpbarnes
5 years 1 month ago

Hes a 20yo in AA. Hes 4 years younger than the average player. The Red Sox like challenging their prospects by putting them at a level where they will find it tough so they will have to work harder than if they stuck them at a level where they would put up pretty numbers. His BABIP is also .366

His last 3 starts: 2-0, 17.2 IP, 19 H, 5 R, 4 BB, 15 K, 23/12 GO/FO

This is a guy in his first year pitching full time. Hes exactly where the Red Sox would have hoped he would be.

johnsmith4
5 years 1 month ago

Kelly is definetly a hot prospect. Pitching as regular starter in AA at 20 is exceptional.

I don’t think AA will be “talking down” Kelly’s value when discussing trade….However, AA has no reason to be interested in marginal prospects.

5 years 1 month ago

philpbarnes stole my thunder, but I’ll respond regardless. You can not go by Casey Kelly’s numbers. He is striking out a ton of batters, almost 9 per 9 innings at a very young age of 20. The Red Sox are pushing him and, so far, I’d say he’s actually exceeding expectations.

The fact that the Sox are not trying to inflate his numbers should say something. I don’t think they have any intention of trading him and you will see him in fenway by the end of 2012.

Mitch_Cole173
5 years 1 month ago

You know, the same was said for this one guy the Sox had that really struggled at AA. What was his name again? Oh yeah, PEDROIA. Kelly is the top prospect in the Boston system, and he’s one of the top prospects in the MLB. The kid’s good. Next time try putting aside your Yankee bias and look at the facts. Yes, Kelly has struggled this year, but so have many others making the transition from A to AA, and manny, many of them are succesful MLB players.