Rosenthal On Red Sox, Yankees, Garza

The Red Sox will "explore their options" with Adrian Beltre, Victor Martinez, and David Ortiz, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  They're also "already checking into" Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth, possibly with the idea of moving Jacoby Ellsbury back to center field and making Mike Cameron a pricey fourth outfielder.  Rosenthal's other musings…

  • Rosenthal's quick math suggests the Yankees would have to stay out of the Crawford/Werth derby – barring a payroll increase –  if they sign Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, and Cliff Lee.
  • Rosenthal finds the offseason trade market for starting pitching unimpressive.  Though Matt Garza is "drawing long looks" from other teams, the Rays are more likely to trade a starter after the 2011 season.  As for Royals ace Zack Greinke, the team might be inclined to let him rebuild value in the first half.  Earlier this month, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith named five other starters who might be available this winter.
  • John Hart, Stan Kasten, or Sandy Alderson could be a fit for the Mets if they look to add an experienced executive above Omar Minaya, speculates Rosenthal.  Rosenthal's source does not see Kasten replacing Bob Dupuy as baseball's second in command.
  • Felipe Lopez wouldn't net the Red Sox a draft pick if his next deal is of the minor league variety, notes Rosenthal.


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71 Comments on "Rosenthal On Red Sox, Yankees, Garza"


Fangaffes
4 years 11 months ago

“Rosenthal’s quick math suggests the Yankees would have to stay out of the Crawford/Werth derby – barring a payroll increase – if they sign Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, and Cliff Lee.”

Sure, barring a payroll increase. But what’s to prevent the Yankees from increasing their payroll to $1/4 billion to make sure the Sox don’t get Crawford?

bjsguess
4 years 11 months ago

Adding Lee could come without touching their 2010 payroll. Shaving dollars off Rivera’s and Jeter’s contract would be expected. Ditching Vazquez saves you an $10m or so.

And even then – are the Yankees really going to complain about boosting payroll another $15m if they think it’s necessary?

It pisses me off that the Yankees can afford to spend so much more than everyone else. However, if I were a fan of the team I would want them to put the very best product on the field possible – regardless of the cost.

Fangaffes
4 years 11 months ago

I think we basically agree. This is the first I’ve heard about Jeter and Rivera taking pay cuts, though.

BaseballFanatic0707
4 years 11 months ago

I would be absolutely content with staying out of the Werth/Crawford derby if that is the case.

nhsox
4 years 11 months ago

You’re concerned with the Yankees having to increase their budget?

4 years 11 months ago

The Yanks payroll isn’t infinite… To be honest now that George(R.I.P.)Steinbrenner passed, I actually want to see the Yankees rely a little bit more on their farm rather than looking for trades, or filling holes with Free Agency.

The_Silver_Stacker
4 years 11 months ago

they have been doing so the last few years with, gardner, hughes, joba, curtis, ring, melky, kennedy, clippard. Even though a few mentioned are else where it showed they were given a shot.

HowdyDoo11
4 years 11 months ago

well, yes and no. they were all given a shot and some “made” the team. But, the yanks farm system is depleted except for a few up n comers, frankly because they dealt away most of their talent for the 30-something year old superstar that had been groomed by another team. All they want is the ring. There’s no such thing as allowing another team to sign exactly who they want – because the yanks will pump up the bidding war and make it impossible for any other team to afford anyone. It’s called cornering the market … i.e. monopolozing all big-name players.

4 years 11 months ago

Exactly. I would want to homegrow our own players for once instead of trading for players who are in their 30s. It can only be a dream at this point, but I hope people like Heathcott, Montero, Betances, Banuelos could all contribute to a Yankees team someday.

Marcos
4 years 11 months ago

While the Yankee farm has been in some desperate need of a boost of talent in previous years, this year they had a lot of excellent development from players. While we may not have the best farm out there, we have been building it up significantly and now rank right around the middle of the pack (IMHO), with players like Montero, Romine, G.Sanchez, JR Murphy, Laird, Adams, Brackman, Banuelos, Betances, Warren, Stoneburner, etc.

BaseballFanatic0707
4 years 11 months ago

Not at all.

I’m speaking within the context of the post. I would take the Andy/Lee/Mo/Jeter FA signing combo over any other combo, as the Yankee offense is just fine. The pitching is more important.

EarlyMorningBoxscore
4 years 11 months ago

I hope the Sox are able to get in on Crawford or Werth having either of them would be a big upgrade. As well as resigning Victor he in my opinion needs to be top priority. @Fangaffes I sadly agree with you there really is not any preventing the Yankees from increasing payroll to make sure the Sox do not get Crawford. I am just hoping that does not happen.

JDortmunder
4 years 11 months ago

I believe the RS will stay out of Crawford Werth bidding (plus both cost a #1 pick). Of course their agents want RS involved, who wouldn’t? And they likely will “explore” things. But Werth/Boras will ask for too much –I’d do a 4/60 tops– and Crawford’s age makes a 6+ years deal a real possibility. He’s a great LF but not a dominant MOO hitter Epstein needs to get. Espeecially if they can’t re-up Beltre. I don’t see either Crawford or Werth coming to Fenway.

4 years 11 months ago

I think Andy should retire. I know he’s had a great year but(and don’t laugh or ridicule me for saying this)the Yanks need to get younger. I want to see them rely more on their farm system to get younger. For example, Slade Heathcott. This guy is really, really raw, but his potential is probably the highest out of anyone on the farm other than JM. I’d love for him to develop and become one of our outifelders. I also remember the Yankees including Robbie Cano on every deal proposed. Would they really want to do that now??Look at it this way, if the NYY farm system produced Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte, and Bernie Williams, why just not scout more and try to have the same success in the future with these guys by not trading them?

Zack23
4 years 11 months ago

What does Andy Pettitte have to do with Slade?

You don’t get younger just for the sake of getting younger. Do you sign Pettitte to a 3 year deal? Of course not, but bringing him back on a 1 year deal is a better idea than any FA not named Lee, or giving Nova the 5th spot.

The_Silver_Stacker
4 years 11 months ago

Nova should get the fifth spot, hes got good stuff and you won’t know what you got with out at least giving him one full year.

Zack23
4 years 11 months ago

How is that plan better than re-signing Andy and having Nova in AAA working on his secondary pitchers and making 10 or so starts throughout the year if someone hits the DL?
You just dont give rotation spots to guys who project to be BOR starters.

BaseballFanatic0707
4 years 11 months ago

Correction-you don’t give rotation spots to guys who project to be number 4s unless there are no other options out there.

It’s a coin toss as to what Andy does. I personally think he’s had enough, but we’ll see what he does.

Zack23
4 years 11 months ago

No I agree- but the original statement was that he thinks Andy should retire because the team needs to get younger. Which is just bad logic.

Having Andy on a 1 year deal + Nova in AAA ready to make spot starts if necessary >>>>>>>>>>>> Nova walking into ST as the 5th starter

4 years 11 months ago

I wasn’t comparing Pettitte or Slade, just syaing that I’d actually like to see Yankees prospects mold and play for the team rather than being traded.I actually want Ivan Nova in the 5th spot next season. And, the Yankees have to get younger. The veterans on the team(and there’s alot of them)are really getting old, and it would be a big boost if we saw bright, young, new faces on that Yankee dougout.

Montero1220
4 years 11 months ago

You guys like Nova? I don’t. Unless he works on his secondary pitches he’s got no chance in a Yankee rotation. As he has shown in his starts he is terrible the 2nd/3rd times through the orders and gets easily shaken up with men on base. I like the kid but just not for our rotation. Pittsburgh Pirates maybe?

4 years 11 months ago

No way! He can work on those pitches, but that’s a matter of coaching and mechanics. Nova can become a good pitcher, just needs some work. Why would you give up on a ROOKIE pitcher who’s all starts have been in the thick of a pennant race? Besides he has a nasty breaking ball, a good fastball, and changeup. He needs to control those pitches, and keep composure, especially with runners on base, he can be really good.

jwredsox
4 years 11 months ago

He has the upside of a back of the rotation starter. Which has value but he isn’t a big time player

4 years 11 months ago

So… I guess you expect a #1 guy to be in the back of the rotation. The kid is pretty solid, we don’t need big time players, we need solid ones that can get the job done.

jwredsox
4 years 11 months ago

I know but I guess my point is that guys like him are a dime a dozen. If the Yankees could get a return for him now they should because they would be better off just getting a #5 guy who is acclimated for the majors rather than a #5 guy who still hasn’t learned the league.

Edit: but I guess that is more of my philosophy for this.

4 years 11 months ago

Well my earlier posts said that I wanted to see the Yankees bring up their own players for once, so that’s part of the reason why Nova should really be a legit option.

Marcos
4 years 11 months ago

Nova is not going to amount to much, at least not in NY. He doesn’t have the stuff, secondary pitches or the command to ever be more than a back of the rotation starter. His inability to get through the order the second time around is what kills him. His ceiling was never high, and it won’t be. I’d MUCH rather see Joba as the fifth starter next year. He’s never been a bad starter, last year his problems were all at the end of the year, when he ran out of gas and got tossed around by management, much like Hughes is struggling now that he’s passed his previous IP ceiling.

Zack23
4 years 11 months ago

Why would you pick Nova over Pettitte? Just because of age? Makes no sense.
There’s no logic to that. That’s why you have depth, so someone like Nova can make a few starts if Andy or whoever goes down.

I’m not saying trade Slade or Nova or whoever, but you’re not walking in ST with Nova as your 5th guy when you have a 200m payroll and looking to win championships.

4 years 11 months ago

And the payroll is brought up.

Listen, I brought this whole thing up because I thought it would be interesting and good for the Yankees to bring up their own players, rather than spending tons of money, and overpaying everybody like A.J. Burnett, or just plain trading them for veterans. And Nova would/should get a chance in the rotation. That kid is elctric, he just needs to control all of his pitches especially with men on base.

Besides you ALL know that if the Yanks traded for him you guys would instead be saying “Wow, why would thy give up on a pitcher that young? Hos ceiling is low, but cam still be good.”

Zack23
4 years 11 months ago

I know why you brought it up, and I agree, if you have top prospects and the team has an opening they should get a chance.

But you cant defend saying if Andy wants to come back you’d say no and just give the spot to Nova. Because that makes no sense.

4 years 11 months ago

I never said I would choose Nova over Andy. I’d like to get Andy back, and if he does there would still be an opening for Nova which is what I was trying to get at. Sorry if some of you didn’t understand what I was trying to say.

Marcos
4 years 11 months ago

Call me insane, but I think that having someone like AJ is better than Nova, AJ can at least be brilliant once in a blue moon, but Nova can’t escape the 5th inning to save his life. Don’t get me wrong, I like Nova, I just think he shouldn’t be a long term starter on the Yankees, I’d love to keep him around as a swing-man/spot starter, like Aceves, a guy in the pen that can come out and pitch the 7th or can come in during a blow-out or a meltdown by the SP and give you 3-4 solid innings.

Slopeboy
4 years 11 months ago

You’re making a judgement on the resume of 5 ML games. No one really knows what Nova is at this point. The reason Aceves is the swing man is because he has the experience that Nova has yet to aquire. Everyone knows what AJ is- Jeykel & Hyde with an $82 Million dollar contract. Wait until next year to find out what Nova really is. Until then, give him credit for pitching in a pennent race in the AL east and not getting torched like AJ.

Marcos
4 years 11 months ago

I never said that I didn’t give him credit, trust me, he has performed better than anyone could have asked of him, I just don’t think that it will be enough to earn him a prolonged role as a starter. And yes, AJ is frustrating, but at least he plays good AJ once in a while (as rare as that may be!)

And again, I’d rather give the rotation spot to Joba over Nova, Joba has WAY more upside, and has much more experience in the majors, Nova could potentially take over Aceves’s role (to reduce Aceves’s workload b/c of his back problems) and ace could move to the 7th to take over Joba’s spot.

Zack23
4 years 11 months ago

It’s only a “boost” if those young players are good and productive.

4 years 11 months ago

And do the Yanks ever let them get the chance to show that they can be productive? No.

4 years 11 months ago

Why on earth would the Yankees sign Carl Crawford? What position would he play?

Carl Crawford has the highest UZR in the majors (I don’t really like UZR, but it’s what we have). Brett Gardner has the second highest. He also has the highest UZR/150 stat, while Crawford has over 200 more innings logged in LF, explaining the gap.

The only piece of Gardner’s game that is worse than Crawfords in any measurable way is his power. Is a likely SLG heavy .075 difference in OPS worth an extra 14-16 million per year for the next 5+ years? No, not at all. Gardner is under team control and will never demand the contract that Crawford does. He also, in limited duty, profiles to be an all-world center fielder, which ups his value incredibly to the team.

Silly move that anyone with half a brain should be able to debunk, but alas, it’s the media. Brian Cashman is not stupid, he understands that one of the reasons the Yankees can splurge on huge signings is because he has embraced a philosophy of building cheap major league talent around them, so they aren’t spending $12M on backup players and aging veterans.

4 years 11 months ago

The whole theory was that if they were to acquire Carl Crawford, they would move Brett Gardner, but then you say that the marginal cost is way greater than the marginal benefit. The difference is many scouts believe that this is the highest point that Gardner will be at in his career and that over the span of his career, he will end up becoming a 4th OFer again despite evidence against regression. On the other hand, a season like this for Crawford is considered far more “normal”.

Basically, they may want to sell high on Gardner if they think his stock has reached the highest point its going to go.

Not saying I agree with it, but thats the general thought process behind it.

Sniderlover
4 years 11 months ago

That’s quite an interesting case actually. Even if Gardner doesn’t improve, the fact he is cheap and cost controlled may be more beneficial than having Crawford at 15+ per.

But it wouldn’t surprise me if they sold high on Gardner and if they do try to, I’m sure Jays would certainly be interested. He would be a perfect fit IMO.

bjsguess
4 years 11 months ago

Why move Gardner?

Anything wrong with having Crawford in LF and Gardner in CF? You stick Granderson or Swisher in RF. Trade the one you don’t want to keep and off-set some of the cost for Crawford.

As for Gardner there is one comparable that I think of whenever I see him. Another speedy OF’er, who walked a ton, but couldn’t muster anything beyond a single. Here are their profiles:

Minors (ages 22-25): Approx 3 full seasons – 800+ OPS / 130 SB’s / + Defender in LF
Majors: 2007 – 293/391/344 – 27SB’s in 130 games

vs Gardner
Minors (ages 21 – 24): Approx 3 full seasons – 775 OPS / 150 SB’s / + Defender in LF
Majors: 2010 – 276/382/376 – 42SB’s in 150 games

Both players have a very similar career path. Similar numbers in the minors and in the majors. Gardner has gone on to become a mainstay with the Yankees while the 1st player – Reggie Willits – has been relegated to a bench role – and a limited one at that. Something that I did not expect heading into 08.

The problem for Willits came when people decided to stop walking him. As pitchers became more aggressive Willits was exposed as just a below average hitter with good speed. If I were a Yankee fan I would worry about the same thing with Gardner. He never, ever swings. As pitchers become aggressive and understand that the worst he can do is a single anyway, his high OBP will come crashing down.

Not suggesting that Gardner will turn into Reggie Willits v2.0 – but the comparisons in terms of skills, approach, and history are right on point.

The_Silver_Stacker
4 years 11 months ago

no chance in hell nick the stick swisher is getting trade no way

jwredsox
4 years 11 months ago

They might trade him while his value is high. His BABIP is 48 points above his career average, he is walking less, and he isn’t that good in right field. He is certainly a valuable player but playing on him repeating his 2010 season (though the Yankees don’t need that much offense from him) is kinda premature.

Edit: I should say if they are going to trade him, right now is the best time. Not that they might.

BaseballFanatic0707
4 years 11 months ago

This is usually the problem that comes with slash hitters. To be honest, though-if pitchers start getting more aggressive, I think Gardner is capable of swinging a bit more.

The question is will that still give us a productive Gardner, or a Reggie 2.0.

Montero1220
4 years 11 months ago

Gardner is a good player. Maybe not on the Crawford level but still a good player. I admit he needs to work on things like bunting, being more aggressive, power, and his swing in general. Yes Crawford is the more complete/mature player. Gardner is like a mini less expensive Crawford. I don’t mind if the Yankees get Crawford and trade Brett the Jet. But the return on Gardner better be good because he’s no Melky Cabrera. In my opinion he’s one of the best leadoff guys in the AL.

4 years 11 months ago

I guarantee the Reds will be calling the Yanks up this offseason checking in on what they would want for gardner

4 years 11 months ago

Todd Frazier

4 years 11 months ago

I’d be hesitant but I’d probably do it in order to get a true leadoff guy on this team that won’t choke when the lights turn on

4 years 11 months ago

Would be better than Bruce or Drew Stubbs at lead off, IMO. I just hope that Frazier is almost ready if that trade does go on.

pedroiayouk
4 years 11 months ago

You ask what position Carl Crawford will play? That’s easy: LF. The Yankees would go with Crawford/Gardner/Granderson in the OF, with Swisher at DH. pretty simple actually

4 years 11 months ago

Crawford to the Angels Werth to Red Sox Lee to the NYankees is what’s I think.

LifeLongYankeeFan
4 years 11 months ago

That definitely could be what will happen. As a Yankee fan I’m looking forward to this offseason. Cliff Lee would be a very nice replacement for Pettitte but I hope Andy comes back one more year because CC, Lee and Pettitte could be a very good top 3.

pedroiayouk
4 years 11 months ago

as a Sox fan, I want absolutely no part of Werth. I dont get why everyone thinks the Sox want him. We already have all of our starting OFs. We have Ellsbury, Kalish, Cameron, and Drew. If anything, we would trade Ellsbury and sign Crawford

4 years 11 months ago

As a Red Sox fan, I’d like the Red Sox to stay away from the Werth/Crawford sweepstakes. There is no way they can re-sign Beltre, Martinez, and one of Werth/Crawford. I don’t think they can fill the void that Beltre and Martinez would present, while they have many options in the outfield. Even if you want to put Cameron in a 4th outfielder role, Kalish and Reddick are both ready. Kalish has really impressed me, and I’ve always liked Reddick despite his struggles. I’d much rather them slightly overpay Beltre and Martinez and make up for it by slotting in Kalish in leftfield for the minimum than signing Crawford/Werth and letting Beltre and/or Martinez walk and slotting in Lowrie/Saltalamacchia/Varitek to replace them. If the Red Sox can add two legit arms to their bullpen and have any moderate level of injuries next season, they will be a serious WS contender.

Fangaffes
4 years 11 months ago

“There is no way they can re-sign Beltre, Martinez, and one of Werth/Crawford.”

Really? With Lowell and Lugo coming off the books at $21M?

4 years 11 months ago

Unless they decide they can spend right around $200m, yeah, it won’t happen. The Red Sox have about $40-45 million to spend on annual salary for 2011. If you sign all three of those guys, that’s at least $40-45 million. I mean, they could move salary from other spots, deal Dice-K and replace him with Doubront, deal Papelbon, etc. but I just don’t see them handing out three top of the market deals.

pedroiayouk
4 years 11 months ago

they would be way over the luxury tax threshold if they signed all 3 guys. They would have to trade DiceK, Cameron, and Papelbon somehow if they sign them. They will probably sign 1 or 2 of them. They certainly don’t need Crawford since they have Ellsbury and they wouldn’t even be interested in Werth unless they missed out on Beltre’s RH power bat.

rdel5
4 years 11 months ago

How exciting would a 2012 outfeild of LF- Crawford CF- Ellsbury and RF- Kalish be?

BentoBox
4 years 11 months ago

Drew is too boring.

missyae
4 years 11 months ago

They won’t get Crawford, might get Werth, could trade and get Fielder if they want to part with a pitcher. I don’t think they do much besides trying to keep their own players. For some reason this team has decided not to compete with the Yanks and Rays anymore and now the Jay and O’s are catching up with them. This comes from a die-hard Sox fan. Just totally disappointed in Theo’s lack of moves. Bill Hall, Jarrod S, Lopez, Cameron, with an aging Ortiz and Drew. The immediate future is not good. Maybe down the road some of the youngsters pan out, but you never know with the prospects.

jwredsox
4 years 11 months ago

Drew has been good his years in Boston and has been huge in the postseason. He will end up being worth his contract if he puts up a solid 2011. Hall has been solid too for a guy who the the Sox aren’t paying. He wasn’t brought in to be a high average everyday player. Cameron got hit by a fluky injury (Kidney stone that led to an abdominal tear) that could happen to a 25 yr old. I don’t think Theo can be blamed for that. And I think when you take into account the lack of moves you have to take into account what they could have done. What non aging DH with questions were on the FA market? Or legitimately good OFer? A catcher that could be acquired at the deadline? 2010 was a culmination of a lack answers to their questions they had at the present time.

lefty177
4 years 11 months ago

it seems like no one understands how important Drew was/is to this team (when healthy), to be honest, i hope they offer him a new extension for after the 2011 season

jwredsox
4 years 11 months ago

JD is probably my favorite baseball player because of how no one likes him. He is such a good player. But I’d rather see them go with Kalish after 2011 who has a chance to be the next JD Drew.

4 years 11 months ago

Agreed. It’s because JD isn’t a “gamer”…Boston fans are obsessed with players who seem to try hard and love the game, they hate anyone who seems to not care as much as they do. I think Red Sox fans and the reporters that cover the team have failed to realize that baseball has changed and there are better ways to judge talent than “the eye test”. People around Boston think Beltre isn’t good defensively because he’s made a bunch of errors. I really can’t think of one Boston media member who is good, and since they inform the fans, the fans have become pretty terrible over the past decade. They care about their team and have passion, but they went from one of the most knowledgeable to middle of the pack. Red Sox fans need to be more thankful that the front office is easily one of the best in baseball and stop bitching about every minor move that doesn’t work out.

pedroiayouk
4 years 11 months ago

they definitely wont keep Drew after 2011. He already said he plans on retiring and the Sox will already have Ellsbury, Kalish, and Reddick for the OF, assuming they dont sign Crawford or Werth

pedroiayouk
4 years 11 months ago

I think the Sox will try to sign 1 or 2 of Beltre/Martinez/Crawford. For example, if they miss out on Martinez, they can make a trade for Napoli to split time with Varitek or Salty at C. If they miss out on Crawford, its no big deal bc they have Ellsbury, Kalish, Drew, and Cameron for the OF.

If they miss out on Beltre, they would have to downgrade to Lowrie at 3B. However if they miss out on Beltre, but are able to sign Crawford, they could then trade Ellsbury and a prospect for Kemp (CF) to replace Beltre’s bat. I think keeping VMart is a good move, but as long as the Sox can sign Beltre or Crawford, they should be fine.

4 years 11 months ago

The point is that those prospects have value whether or not they ever play for the big league Yankees. There is nothing wrong with trading them for veterans if that is how they can best be used to help the team, especially if it is a player who would never be a regular on the Yankees (ie Ian Kennedy).

HowdyDoo11
4 years 11 months ago

good point. it’s almost as if they’d be better off giving some of their farm talent a bit more of a chance to prove themselves (i.e. most recently, Gardner) instead of raping the farm for a temporary band-aid in a 30-ish player.

4 years 11 months ago

I’m pretty sure those prospects would have value to the Yanks if they pan out, as in, trade value. I’m not impressed with the Yankee track record, and I’m not by any means proud of it, I just want to see home grown prospects pan out and play for the team instead of getting traded for an already old veteran. If Montero comes up as a Yankee I will respect Cashman until he decides to trade someone like Betances.

Zack23
4 years 11 months ago

How much do you think the Yankees look at AJax’s BABIP and think “wait for regression next year”??

Zack23
4 years 11 months ago

So wait, only top prospects have good seasons? Come on, guys come up all the time and have 1 good season, the MSM falls in love with him, then the next year his numbers normalize and they “But what happened?!”.
I’m not saying Ajax is a flash in the pan, but don’t say his numbers aren’t affected by an unsustainable BABIP.

BaseballFanatic0707
4 years 11 months ago

Congratulations on being one of the very few who think A-Jax is legit right now.

Oh, by the way, for those keeping track at home: Granderson’s WAR-4.0 whilst having a typical Granderson season (Kevin Long is his hero right about now.). A-Jax’s WAR-3.4. One guy missed significant time with injury.

A-Jax has proven nothing other than being an extremely lucky guy right now. Come talk to me after next year when we see some regression.