Free Agent Stock Watch: Kevin Correia

Like the Padres, Kevin Correia started the season well but slumped down the stretch. There's no question that the 30-year-old's late-season struggles will limit his asking price this winter. Here's a closer look at the right-hander's free agent stock:

The Pros

  • Correia can strike hitters out (7.1 K/9 in 2010).
  • He stayed healthy all year.
  • Teams were showing interest in Correia not long ago; the Brewers and Rays asked about him last offseason
  • Despite the righty's 5.40 ERA, defense-independent pitching stats suggest he was unlucky. Nearly 15% of fly balls hit off of Correia left the yard, so homers inflated his ERA.
  • Correia has induced more grounders in the past two seasons (45% ground ball rate in '09, 49% ground ball rate in '10). This suggests he could pitch just as effectively in a considerably smaller park than Petco.
  • He's just a year removed from a season in which he posted a 3.91 ERA in 33 starts.

The Cons

  • He posted a 5.40 ERA last year, allowing more than a hit per inning. Lucky or not, those numbers are ugly.
  • Bud Black took note and removed the right-hander from the Padres' rotation in September. Correia had posted a 6.18 ERA between June and August. That's one long slump.
  • His walk rate jumped from 2.9 BB/9 to 4.0 BB/9 in 2010.

The Verdict 

It doesn't look great for Correia, though he shouldn't have trouble drawing interest. Teams like the Orioles and Brewers will be looking for back-of-the-rotation arms this offseason and Correia's ability to induce grounders would play well in homer-friendly places like Camden Yards and Miller Park. But other free agents (including former Brewer Dave Bush and former Oriole Kevin Millwood) will be vying for rotation spots and Correia doesn't have much leverage given his poor finish. A one-year deal worth $2MM or so seems like a reasonable target for the San Diego native, who may well end up with the Padres again.


16 Responses to Free Agent Stock Watch: Kevin Correia Leave a Reply

  1. why do I see the Cardinals in on him?

    Not that I want them too, just their MO

    • Backup_Slider 5 years ago

      He does have that “I am a semi-young Jeff Suppan in the making” quality to him, if that’s what you’re typing about.

  2. Kevin Charity 5 years ago

    I would give him another look as a Padres fan, but I wouldn’t guarantee him any money. The Padres will look to add another veteran arm to go with Latos, Richard, Stauffer, Luebke, Leblanc, Castro. I would like to see them bring back Garland, but I feel another team like the Mets will overpay for him.

    • I don’t think the Mets will be overpaying anyone this off-season–especially if they hire Alderson.

  3. Ian_Smell 5 years ago

    The Pirates should sign him.

  4. YouDontKnowDude 5 years ago

    Not included in this but probably worth mentioning…. Correia’s younger brother died during the season and there is no doubt that his psyche was effected by it. A season removed from his family’s tragedy may do him a lot of good.

    • I presume that’s why your username is “YouDontKnowDude”.

      • YouDontKnowDude 5 years ago

        Exactly. I am correct in every aspect of everything I say or do.

    • mrsjohnmiltonrocks 5 years ago

      I was going to mention that too. Probably a little hard to focus on the mound and in your workouts when you lose a sibling. The brother wasn’t sick-he did in an accident. A shock all around. He’s certainly a candidate to bounce back.

  5. Backup_Slider 5 years ago

    Correia would be a good candidate for a bounce-back season to 2009 form in 2011. The trouble is he could very well revert to his 2010 form in 2012. I’m thinking he will land a 2-year deal for a combined total of $6 to $7 M.

  6. Backup_Slider 5 years ago

    Correia would be a good candidate for a bounce-back season to 2009 form in 2011. The trouble is he could very well revert to his 2010 form in 2012. I’m thinking he will land a 2-year deal for a combined total of $6 to $7 M.

  7. 55saveslives 5 years ago

    With the Giants he was usually dominant for 4 innings, then the wheels would fully come off!!

  8. untdrum99 5 years ago

    I wouldn’t give him any significant contract. Maybe a year at $1 million. His record at 10-10 makes him look better than he really was. His WHIP was almost 1.5. He also doesn’t go deep into ballgames. His longest outing of the season was right at 7 innings, which happened once. That’s not exactly what his manager wants to face every time he takes the mound to start a game.

    His ERA was 15.00 (the longest outing was 4 1/3) in his last three outings in August before he got yanked from the rotation. In his 4 consecutive wins in April he had some good run support (17, 5, 10, and 6 runs in each game). He never pitched more than 5 and 2/3 of an inning. He had another 3 appearance streak with wins at the beginning of August, but again had better-than-average run support to make it happen (5, 8, and 9 runs). After his 4 consecutive wins in April, he went over a month before his next win. Then it took him another month and a half to get another. He won one game between May 3 and July 9.

    He better hope that somebody with a strong bullpen is looking to add a 5th starter.

  9. schellis 5 years ago

    As a guy that had him multiple fantasy leagues that counted quality starts those 5 adn 2/3rds outings when he was spotted plenty of runs were very frustrating.

    I’ve always like Correia, his biggest problem seemed to always be that his stuff had so much movement that he couldn’t throw strikes with it. Which isn’t necessarily a bad problem to have.

    Some team will definitely take a chance on him, and I think he’ll be a solid back end of the rotation option for them.

  10. cubfan4life 5 years ago

    Seems like a west coast type guy too. If he leaves i wouldnt be surprised to see him in Seattle or possibly LA. But if an offer is there i would expect him to go back to SD. He was born in San Diego, he is a SoCal guy, even his agent is based in SD. Just makes too much sense.
    If there is not an offer though Seattle, St. Louis, Milwaukee plus a handful of other small/mid market teams would probably give him a shot as a 4 or 5 starter.

  11. j1066 5 years ago

    Go Pirates!

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