Signing Gonzalez “Doesn’t Appear To Be Practical”

The Padres will likely explore an extension with their star first baseman this offseason, but the team’s CEO isn’t optimistic about reaching a long-term agreement with Adrian Gonzalez. Jeff Moorad told Tim Sullivan of the San Diego Union-Tribune that it may not make sense for the Padres to keep Gonzalez after 2011.

“While we’d still love to have Adrian here long-term, it doesn’t appear to be practical from a financial standpoint,” Moorad said. “So I’m certainly not counting on that. But we’ll engage and see if there’s a deal that can be made."

Gonzalez will earn $5.5MM next year in the final year of his contract, assuming the Padres exercise their option. That’s a safe assumption since Gonzalez hit 31 homers this year and posted a .298/.393/.511 line in 692 plate appearances.

“At this point, I expect him to be on our roster next season,” Moorad said. “I think [GM Jed Hoyer is] committed to sit down with [agent] John Boggs at some point and I’m sure we’ll get a feel about Adrian’s view of the future.”

Moorad said the team’s payroll will likely be in the $40-50MM range, so paying Gonzalez market value (likely over $15MM per season) seems unrealistic at this point.


102 Responses to Signing Gonzalez “Doesn’t Appear To Be Practical” Leave a Reply

  1. I would love for the Marlins to get him back, but we all know that aint happening! lol

  2. start_wearing_purple 5 years ago

    C’mon Theo! Strike the iron while it’s hot.

    • dc21892 5 years ago

      Don’t hold your breathe. A lot has to go wrong for the Pads to just trade him. His value is probably highest this offseason, because toward the deadline, you only get to keep him for a few months (assuming he doesn’t sign an extension). Jed Hoyer knows the Sox system well from his years there and is going to demand equal value, which means losing 2 of our top prospects at least, along with some lower level ones that are still progressing. Middlebrooks/Weiland? This is all coming from a Red Sox fan, but I don’t think it’s going to happen at this point. If Theo signs a first basemen to a one year deal this winter such as Carlos Pena, you know he’s targeting AGon in free agency next year.

      • start_wearing_purple 5 years ago

        I tend to have an issue with first basemen who can’t hit the Mendoza line. But I’m kinda hoping the Padres failed run at the division will convince them to sell. I figure any trade begins with Kelly and Kalish.

        • dc21892 5 years ago

          So do I, but if Theo wants this guy, he’s going to have to wait til free agency. Meaning a one year deal for a first or third basemen. Why pay the double cost? Prospects and a fat contract extension? We’ve backed off in the past with Halladay and Santana.

          • Mario Saavedra 5 years ago

            Backing up from Santana and Halladay didn’t turn up that well.

          • start_wearing_purple 5 years ago

            You’re right… we should have given up Lester and prospects for Santana… what was Theo thinking.

          • Or Buchholz and a lot more for Halladay…Halladay’s great, but give me Buchholz and 3/4 other top 15 prospects plus 20m a season to spend on other players any day.

  3. j6takish 5 years ago

    Red Sox Lineups go here

  4. Roy Munson 5 years ago

    What a Joke, You should not be in Major League Baseball with a 40 Million Dollar Payroll… the real crime in baseball is what the Padres, Indians, Marlins, Rays, and Orioles do to thier fans… put a product on the field and stop pocketing the cash…

    • Tim Valencia 5 years ago

      Rays are in the playoffs,,,,
      Padres past owners went through a messy divorce resulting in a group of people having to buy the padres, I am sorry if you think its feasible to just immediately have a 90+ million payroll after coming off of slumping seasons and purchasing a new team

      • The_Porcupine 5 years ago

        You’re exactly right. The Padres have always been willing to spend to the mid level budget level, right around 90-100 million. And they were willing to take on money at the trade deadline. It just isn’t practical to throw money around without a long range plan. And really, who would have thought that the Padres could have contended this past year? Besides Gonzalez, Latos, and their bullpen, would any other player be considered an integral part of the team? No. So why throw a bunch of money at 2-3 guys when you have that many holes in your team (not to mention a limited amount of high impact prospects)?

    • start_wearing_purple 5 years ago

      At this point I think it’s more of a crime of what the fans are doing to the Rays players.

      • unbiasedhomer 5 years ago

        What the Rays bats aren’t doing to the baseball is the biggest crime of all, unfortunately.

        • Is it really surprising though? This team has gone into extended horrible slumps at different points throughout the year.

      • Just_MLB 5 years ago

        the south-east in general is more of a college football town.
        the marlins/braves/rays all have the same problem.

        i remember when the braves couldnt even sell out a world series game back in the 90’s

    • bbxxj 5 years ago

      To be fair the Orioles have tried to spend quite a bit of money the last few years with huge bids on players like Tex. I could see them as a team who could trade for Gonzalez and then extend him on a Tex like deal.

      • The_Porcupine 5 years ago

        People overlook the fact that the O’s did make huge offers to Vlad before he went to Angels, to Konerko before resigning with the WSox, and Tex. before he went to the Yankees. It’s not about money with the Orioles and never has been a problem.

        I would however hate to see the Orioles make a trade for A-Gonz. though. I think it would cost too much in prospects and they need to keep them. If they were closer to contending, I’d agree to trade prospects for a stud like A-Gonz. But they are nowhere near contending. Now when he’s a free agent in a year, I’d love to see them sign him. But not trade for him now.

        • bbxxj 5 years ago

          Yeah I think the O’s would need to negotiate a long extention at the time of the trade to make it worth their effort and prospects. And pike you’ve said the O’s have the spending power to make a good enough offer for Gonzalez to want to sign.

        • They also made huge offers to Miguel Tejada, Rafael Palmiero, and Javy Lopez. And they traded for Sammy Sosa.
          -wtk

          • Just_MLB 5 years ago

            yeah, its called plan b, c, d, e and F

    • YouDontKnowDude 5 years ago

      just a few years ago the Padres were in the $70 mil range. Ownership had a meltdown and sold the club. The new ownership is focusing a lot of money in the draft to rebuild with core players. As they make more money they will spend more money. Seems pretty simple. So far they have delivered what they’ve promised. I don’t understand why everyone is fussing about the Padres.

  5. rockfordone 5 years ago

    Ellisbury-Lowie-Bard-Bowden – Jeb that’s where deal starts

    • andrewyf 5 years ago

      Usually you see fantasy offers from fans that center around fringe players like Anderson, Bowden, Doubront, but this one is actually one that the Sox wouldn’t (and shouldn’t) do. Their future closer and a damn good reliever to boot (Bard), and a guy who looks like he could be at the least a good utility player (Lowrie) and a guy who could come back and be a good player if things break right for him (Ellsbury)…that looks more like the non-centerpiece parts of a package to get an ace starter, not one year of a first baseman who is definitely going to free agency.

      • johnsilver 5 years ago

        Agreed. I seriously doubt Boston will pursue any marque type power hitter this off season via trade because of the cost alone, especially with AGone available as a FA next off season and Boston as it looks now, the team that can and will pay whatever it takes to sign him.

        Why give SD anything, except a 1st round pick if they refuse to understand how valuable he is to them? How many other teams can even AFFORD what it would/will take to sign him that need a 1B and give him a chance at the playoffs on a yearly basis?

    • That’s trading two starters for 2011 and your best reliever. Jed Lowrie has good value right now, I realize he had a shortened seasons but the numbers he put up were great. He can be a top 5 shortstop next season if healthy. His health problems include a broken wrist and mono…not exactly stuff that screams Mr. Glass. I think his injury prone reputation is a little exaggerated.

  6. j6takish 5 years ago

    The Rangers traded him away…resigning him is going to look really stupid, but I think JD and Co may bid on him anyway…after all, they weren’t the ones who traded him away in the first place, and they could use an anchor at first

    • Just_MLB 5 years ago

      so let me get this straight…
      trading away someone and getting 5 players back for him…2 already become all-stars
      then getting the guy u traded away…back for nothing but money…is a bad move?

      please tell me u dont work in investment banking…but if u do, tell me which firm so i know NEVER to put my money in it…

      • cjmsd 5 years ago

        Texas traded Adrian away for garbage consisting of Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka. I believe you are thinking of the Teixeira deal. Last time I checked the Yankees paid him and he is not available.

  7. Steelslayer 5 years ago

    Good let the sox go after him and empty their system of value

    • start_wearing_purple 5 years ago

      Gee… trading prospects for a good power hitting first baseman. You’re right, it makes no sense.

      • Just_MLB 5 years ago

        tell that to Atlanta Braves fans !

        • Red Sox have a much higher payroll than the Braves. They could feasibly afford to extend A-Gon.

          • start_wearing_purple 5 years ago

            Don’t kid yourself, Braves aren’t exactly poor. They had a $100M payroll 2 years ago. If they wanted to they could afford almost anyone.

  8. SneakyLongBalls 5 years ago

    Under 10 teams will be in on Gonzalez. Pipe dream, but i would like to see the Jays go for him. I just don’t see Lind being the answer at 1st.

    • dizzle4 5 years ago

      If the Padres will allow an extension window (and Gonzalez would be willing to sign) then sure, but otherwise, I don’t think the Jays are in a position yet to trade the prospects it would take to get Gonzalez, if he’s just going to be a one year asset.

  9. lsantamaria 5 years ago

    if he goes into free agency the Rangers are going to pick this guy up not the red sox.

    • InTheKZone 5 years ago

      Unless Pujols also goes to FA then the Cardinals may make a play for him.

  10. dickylarue 5 years ago

    Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays, White Sox, Rangers and possibly Seattle would all be in on him if he hits the market. The amount it would take to trade for him will be astronomical.I could easily see the Mets offer Ike Davis and the M’s offer Smoak for a chance to get a young franchise 1b who can hit in a pitchers park. The Mets especially need something to energize their fanbase besides hiring a new GM and manager. I also wouldn’t rule out Billy Beane in Oakland trading for him as a rental who he could flip at the deadline if they are out of the race. That said, it’s a disgrace that the Padres owner is publicly stumping that he can’t afford his star player with a payroll that is already a joke. If they can’t come up with the money to keep this guy, they should fold. With the sheer amount of money that these teams get from teams like the Yankees and Red Sox before they even sell a ticket, it’s a disgrace for any of these “small market” owners to be crying poverty. Baseball is in desperate need of retraction and/or relocation of franchises. Tampa should be moved to Charlotte if Charlotte can support a team. I’m sure there are other cities like Portland that might be able to support a team better than say Pittsburgh, Tampa, SD, etc. If relocation is off the table then retraction needs to happen soon. The pitching and talent will get much better with a couple of teams out of commission.But not being able to make real money with a baseball team in San Diego in a beautiful ballpark like that makes zero sense to me. If they trade all their stars, all that will insure is that ballpark stays empty for the next 5-6 years and when those players are ready to be stars, they’ll repeat the cycle and trade them again. If the owners, fans and finances can’t support baseball, then the city shouldn’t have baseball.

    • The Mets are not trading for Agonz at all unless he wants to play 2b

      • dickylarue 5 years ago

        Don’t be shocked if they offer Ike Davis and Meijia for him if he’s put on the block this off season.

      • Yankees420 5 years ago

        Really? If the Mets traded for Adrian and still had Ike, they would make the much better player move positions? Somehow I doubt that.

      • Yankees420 5 years ago

        Really? If the Mets traded for Adrian and still had Ike, they would make the much better player move positions? Somehow I doubt that.

    • YanksFanSince78 5 years ago

      In defense of the Pittsburgh Pirates fans I don’t think the issue is lack of fan support. That’s a very proud franchize that drew pretty well in the 70’s and 80’s and once again when they open the new stadium. However the fact that the team hasn’t had a winning season, not a title, a season where the team finished above .500 in the past 18 seasons give fans little reason to come out unless there’s some great team or “Strasburg” like phenom coming into town. When the Pirates are playing the Milwaukee Brewers on a Mon-Thur run it doesn’t cause much excitement. The Pirates FO has done very little in terms of extracting prime players for the drafts since Bonds has left. The Pirates should feel happy to get the 1.5 mil per that they do draw each year. If only you could swap the Rays team with the Pirates. Pitssburgh deserves a great team like the Rays and Rays fans deserve a bad team like the Pirates.

      • dickylarue 5 years ago

        Realigning the Pirates out of the AL East killed them. Not competing against the Mets and Phillies like they did back in the day has hurt gate receipts and fan support. The expansion and realignment in the NL destroyed a lot of great rivalries and turned the Central and West into 2 boring divisions.

        • YanksFanSince78 5 years ago

          I don’t know if I would soley contribute the move from the NL East to the Central as it. Simply put, if you grew up in Pittsburgh and are under the age of 25 you may NEVER have seen the Pirates post a winning record. That says a hell of a lot. And then the city rewards the team with a beautiful new stadium. Compound the fact that the city is an industrial economy currently in a depressed market and that the other sports franchizes like the Steelers and Penguins are wayyyyyy out performing the Pirates then you can understand why the fan turnout isn’t what it use to be. Even still, 1.5 mil is not bad for a team that consistantly puts out a poor product. At least now there’s a glimmer of hope but will the Pirates FO continue to draft well and make a commitment to retaining their stars. Surely they won’t be able to hand out $100 mil contracts to players headed into free agency but they can do what the Indians, Rays and Brewers have done and identify the two or three great players that are most important and try to lock them down and buyout some free agent years.

    • razorwing77 5 years ago

      I don’t think Charlotte could support a team. The Braves are right down the street and they can’t fill a stadium anymore, either.

    • Just_MLB 5 years ago

      Ike and Mejia are cost effective. it wouldnt be logical to trade them if ur getting above average production. then again these are the Wilpons…..

    • Just_MLB 5 years ago

      Ike and Mejia are cost effective. it wouldnt be logical to trade them if ur getting above average production. then again these are the Wilpons…..

  11. YanksFanSince78 5 years ago

    Red Sox fans have to understand that their “top prospects” have lost some value right now. Not saying that Kelly and etc won’t be good players but obviously Casey Kelly after a 5.31 ERA in 95 IP season isn’t as valuable as a Kelly after a 2.08 ERA in 95 IP season. The Sox will still value him because he’s their own. The Padres will have to get bonafide blue chip prospects that can be sold to even the casual baseball fan who only visits sites like this in the thick of “Hot Stove League” season.

    Right now Ellsbury has value but not nearly what Sox fans might think. I love Ellsbury’s game but the Padres will value him based upon what they see on paper….a 27 yo leadoff hitter, with a lifetime .344 OBP, who missed 144 games this past year and is entering his first arbitration hearing.

    As far as Bard is concerned. I just don’t think the Sox will part with Bard when a) Papelbon is 1 year away from walking and b) the Sox have a mandate to win and c) there isn’t any other replacement for him in the open market. As for the Padres, if you have no Agon then chances are you’re not going to be a competitive team in the near future therefor why optain a closer when there aren’t going to be enough important wins to secure in the 9th inning? They might as well keep Bell or more realistic, try to convert a young power arm from w/in to be their next closer of the future.

    So I don’t see the Sox and Padres matching up on a deal. Trades seem to have a certain shelf life and I think this one has come and gone. The Padres will want more compensation now that the two centerpieces of past trade talks (Casey Kelly and Westmoreland) have lost some luster and Theo is smart enough to know that adding more to the deal to compensate for the lost value of Kelly is simply a bad deal. In Theo’s eyes, Kelly is still the same prospect as he was in 2009. However, for the Padres they need prospects they can sell to their fan base. Their value must be self-evident and noticeable w/o anyone having to look at any other line than that of 2010.

    I think the Braves and Orioles are real players when it comes to acquiring Agonz.

    • start_wearing_purple 5 years ago

      Umm Casey Kelly is a 21 year old pitcher who pitched his first full year as a professional in a league that was clearly above him. I’d say his value is just as high when you take into account his high strikeout rate. No one is kidding themselves about Ellsbury but he still has his key tool, his speed. As for Bard… I have no idea why he’s in trade discussions, he was the brightest part of our bullpen this year, I’m willing to bet anything his name never gets even mentioned in a real trade proposal. Yankee fans are kidding themselves when they keep implying the Sox don’t have the farm it takes to acquire an impact player.

      • YanksFanSince78 5 years ago

        Hey SWP. Longtime…

        You really didn’t pay attention to what I wrote. I never said Casey Kelly was a stiff. What I did say that for all OUTSIDE of Boston, his value isn’t what it was in 2009. Logically speaking, he went from low A to AA and his ERA more than doubled from 2.08 to well over 5.00. That certainly doesn’t mean that he won’t rebound but my point is that either they will ask for “whatever they discussed prior that included Kelly” to “whatever they discussed including Kelly + more to compensate for the lost luster of Kelly’s 2010 season”. That’s perfectly logical and non-biased. The same way Betances and Brackman’s value took a hit after horrible 2009 capaigns. Their alue returned somewhat after their 2010 seasons and the same can happen for Kelly in 2011.

        The Padres simply need a return on Agonz that they can show to their fans and say “See this what we got and these are the great stats they posted in 2010″. What they probably don’t want to say is that the #1 prospect they got, the key to the deal, was a kid who posted a 5.00+ ERA at AA. They need prospects free of question marks. No pitchers coming off of TJ surgery….no prospects that looked great in 2009 but struggled at the next level in 2010. While the most important thing in any trade is talent and value if you can’t grasp that PR is going to play a MAJOR role in any trade involving Agonz then I can’t help ya. If there is ANY inclination that the Padres got snookered then they will feel the repercusions from their fans in 2011. Beyone 2011 they might feel differently if the prospects turn out to be great but I’m sure they want to do their best to pacify their fans short term as well as long term.

      • YanksFanSince78 5 years ago

        Hey SWP. Longtime…

        You really didn’t pay attention to what I wrote. I never said Casey Kelly was a stiff. What I did say that for all OUTSIDE of Boston, his value isn’t what it was in 2009. Logically speaking, he went from low A to AA and his ERA more than doubled from 2.08 to well over 5.00. That certainly doesn’t mean that he won’t rebound but my point is that either they will ask for “whatever they discussed prior that included Kelly” to “whatever they discussed including Kelly + more to compensate for the lost luster of Kelly’s 2010 season”. That’s perfectly logical and non-biased. The same way Betances and Brackman’s value took a hit after horrible 2009 capaigns. Their alue returned somewhat after their 2010 seasons and the same can happen for Kelly in 2011.

        The Padres simply need a return on Agonz that they can show to their fans and say “See this what we got and these are the great stats they posted in 2010″. What they probably don’t want to say is that the #1 prospect they got, the key to the deal, was a kid who posted a 5.00+ ERA at AA. They need prospects free of question marks. No pitchers coming off of TJ surgery….no prospects that looked great in 2009 but struggled at the next level in 2010. While the most important thing in any trade is talent and value if you can’t grasp that PR is going to play a MAJOR role in any trade involving Agonz then I can’t help ya. If there is ANY inclination that the Padres got snookered then they will feel the repercusions from their fans in 2011. Beyone 2011 they might feel differently if the prospects turn out to be great but I’m sure they want to do their best to pacify their fans short term as well as long term.

    • I’d agree with you on Casey Kelly if GM’s looked at AA pitchers based solely on ERA. Since they don’t I disagree. Stats are a useful tool for evaluating prospects, however they are not the end all be all. If Kelly stayed at an age appropriate level he would have dominated. Instead the Red Sox pushed him to a level where he would struggle and have to make adjustments. He had higher and more consistent velocity, which is the most important thing. They are pushing guys to higher advancement levels because guys like Buchholz never were pushed, excelled at all levels, and then enjoyed immediate success in the MLB. But once he started getting hit, his confidence took a dive and he didn’t know how to adjust. I think this age advancement stuff is a very good philosophy. It’s almost like Montero getting pushed and initially struggling, but then he made adjustments. Bottomline is you don’t evaluate 21 year old pitchers based on ERA in a vacuum. I also disagree that Hoyer needs to bring back names the San Diego fan base approves of. The Padres don’t have a great fan base, the ones who do care are going to be pissed no matter what, and Hoyer probably doesn’t care about fan perception.

      • YanksFanSince78 5 years ago

        I typed up a whole response and then my kid tripped over my power cord (sigh). Anyway…

        DISCLAIMER: I AM NOT CALLING CASEY KELLY A STIFF OR SAYING HE ISN’T STILL A TOP 50 PROSPECT.

        Bias aside, if Montero had not had a great 2nd half then outside of the Yankee organization his luster would have taken a dip. That’s common sense. There’s instrinsic value and then there’s realized value, or what we see on paper. No way in the world would the Yanks have had the balls to offer Montero for the next “Halladay 2011 candidate” if he had finished with a line of .260/.340 w/ 15 hrs this year. Doesn’t mean the Yanks wouldn’t have valued him as their best prospect or that they would’ve traded him for an inferior player (i.e. a marginal star) but even they would have to admit that his “trade value” had lowered if he didn’t turn things around in the 2nd half.

        Now as far as Kelly is concerned I usde ERA sort of as an easy accesible “all inclusive” stat to give the gyst of his year. But even using all the other peripherals he had a bad year. Doesn’t mean he’s washed up or should fall from the top 50 category but Sox bias aside, the guy had a dissapointing year and I’m not sure why anyone feels other people wouldn’t factor that into any discussions involving the Sox and the Padres.

        But here’s a better picture of Kelly’s year…

        2009 vs 2010

        ERA- 2.08 vs 5.31
        Whip- 0.85 vs 1.61
        H/9- 6.2 to 11.2
        BB/9- 1.5 to 3.3
        SO/BB- 4.63 to 2.31
        Bat avg against- .184 to.307

        Now he has age on his side but the fact is that every level he has ascended the worse his stats look. His ERA and other peripherals went up from 1.12 @ rookie ball in ’09 and 3.09 @ low A in ’09 to 5.31 @ AA in 2010.

        The one stat that held stead was his K/9 where he went from 7.0 to 7.7.

        So my point is, and I’m shocked I’m getting such backlash is this….

        Every trade rumor and seemingly every imaginary proposal included Casey Kelly and/or Westmoreland. There were even Sox fans who refused to give up both or even either. Well now it’s 2010. Casey Kelly has struggled as mentioned and Westmoreland has serious issues that many thought would end his career. How in the world could anyone expect the same trade scenarios to work now and entice Hoyer to trade Agonz to the Sox? If anything, Hoyer might want whatever was on the table and MORE. Noe Theo isn’t a dummy. If anything he may decide against the scenario all together because HE still value Kelly (as he should) and may feel that he’s selling low to INCLUDE Kelly AND others to compensate for the value decrease of Kelly.

        From the Padres perspective, Hoyer knows trading Agonz is going to be unpopular. However, anyone who feels that Hoyer must get as much prospect value in return AND be able to pacify the fan base and play the PR game is kidding themselves. Hoyer needs to be able to jusitify the trade with prospects who’s value is easy to see. That mean’s no explanations needed. That means, no pitchers coming off of TJ surgery or prospects who’ve just had a suspect year. He can not have a trade scenario where the best prospect is a pitcher with a 5.31 ERA @ AA. He may be able to sell it as “ADD THE MAIN INGREDIENT” with Kelly as the sleeper of the bunch, but he has to avoid all thoughts of being snookered by the Sox. Any suggestion that the young GM of a team that barely missed the playoffs isn’t concerned with the fan base backlash of trading their homegrown star simply doesn’t understand all the complexities of being a GM. Now he can do a trade centered around Kelly and 1 year or two down the road he might come off as brilliant but you can bet that will be his last resort because he wills urely try and get better more defensible trade scenarios before “settling” on Casey Kelly centered deals.

        Again, not saying kelly is a bust or NOT a top 50. Just the same way Betances and Brackman lost value after horrible 2009 seasons the same has to be said about Kelly and Westmoreland. And it’s my opinion that because of that fact Theo will not sell low on Kelly and might religate himself to not trading for Agonz at all because his 2009 trade proposal pieces probably won’t get it done as of today.

        • I’m not arguing that Kelly’s value hasn’t taken a hit. I’m saying it hasn’t taken as big of hit as you seem to think. While you are correct in saying the Red Sox offer would look worse than it did last year, you are overlooking something very important…the Padres offer got worse. Gonzalez was a guy with 2 very team friendly years, now he is a guy one year away from free agency. I think this trade off in value outweighs any regression from Kelly. This isn’t to say that the Red Sox are going to have the best offer for Gonzalez, it’s just more about the difference between Kelly & Gonzalez from last year to now.

          • YanksFanSince78 5 years ago

            I disagree again. No matter how you cut it, any team that wants Agonz will more than likely need to trade their best prospect and two others. If Kelly is your best and Westmoreland is unavailable then how do people suppose to get Agonz w/o giving up more than a deal centered around Kelly?

          • Again, I’m not saying they will offer the best deal, I actually don’t think they will. However, Gonzalez lost more value than Kelly this past season IMO. Even though Kelly is the centerpiece, there would be more moving parts than just him, while Gonzalez is the package. One year of him isn’ as appealing as two, there is no debating this point. Whether you want to argue that Kelly’s regression this season is more substantialy than this is up to you, but I think it certainly is.

            I think where your logic fails is that you are talking about the 2009 prospects that lost value (Kelly and Westmoreland) and not acknowledging that others have significantly increased their value. Kalish is a good example of this. So we can’t judge the package based on Kelly solely…maybe if he was the centerpiece with his 2009 value, the other pieces would have been lesser. Since he lost value, the rest of the package might be increased. You are looking at things in a vacuum, and even if you look at 2009 Kelly v. 2010 Kelly in terms of value, you have to admit 2009 Adrian Gonzalez had more value than 2010 Adrian Gonzalez. So if you think Kelly’s dip is more impactful than Adrian’s, the Red Sox can offset that difference by dealing players like Kalish and Iglesias who have increased their value, or add a player that they wouldn’t have added before. Maybe deal Ranaudo. Who knows. My main point is that I admit Kelly’s value has dropped, I just believe it is less significant than you do, so agree to disagree. Regardless, I think better packages will be out there than the Red Sox, but Hoyer’s time with Boston and knowledge of their system is a major wildcard for better or for worse.

          • I also don’t think you can make it as cut and dry as “a team’s top prospect and two others”. One offer might have the best prospect along with a few other guys who don’t have great ceilings. Another offer might not have as good of a centerpiece, but have 4-6 guys who can all offer value at the MLB level. I just don’t think it’s a safe assumption that Hoyer will be looking for one bluechipper and will rule out all other types of packages.

          • YanksFanSince78 5 years ago

            While 2 years of Agonz is worth more than 1 the arguement that the fall off in value of Agonz is more than the falloff of Kelly is wrong. Plain and simple you pretty much bank on AGonz giving you .290/.370 w/ 35 hrs and I think that’s conservative. it could be a lot more playing in a better offensive team in a hitter friendly park. WIth Kelly he is still an unknown. And the fact is, he is an unknown coming off of a season where he struggled. Matt Holliday, Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez are good examples to go by.

          • “While 2 years of Agonz is worth more than 1 the arguement that the fall off in value of Agonz is more than the falloff of Kelly is wrong.”

            Don’t confuse opinion with fact. I’m not saying Gonzalez isn’t worth anything with one year left on his contract…I’m saying he isn’t worth as much. Kelly has had his value drop marginally, not significantly. You are correct in saying you bank on AGonz giving 290/370 with 35hrs…but last year you banked on 290/370 with 70 hrs, big difference. He still has value, but fangraphs doesn’t even have him top 50 in trade value. So while you can disagree, again, we are both arguing our opinions. I know mine isn’t a fact, but neither is yours, sorry.

          • YanksFanSince78 5 years ago

            I disagree again. No matter how you cut it, any team that wants Agonz will more than likely need to trade their best prospect and two others. If Kelly is your best and Westmoreland is unavailable then how do people suppose to get Agonz w/o giving up more than a deal centered around Kelly?

    • johnsilver 5 years ago

      Right on. Bard is the probably one of 3-4 pieces absolutely going nowhere on the Sox team, yet what every team in MLB covets.. a BP arm that excels, 5 years of team control left and most affordable.

      Kelly has not lost any value either as you brought up, beside being in a league way above his age (I think he was the youngest player in the Eastern league in 2010) he gained weight to increase his velocity that the Sox wanted him to do and had a bit of control problems with it that he needs to work out is all.

      his FB now can “touch” the mid 90’s, much better than when he was originally drafted and the Sox FO is by no means disappointed by his progress and I really doubt his trade value has dropped one iota.

  12. jwsox 5 years ago

    insert typical insane ramblings from boston fans that basically guarantee that the redsox will get him….

  13. jwsox 5 years ago

    dont count out the whitesox…they have decent prospects and the teams have a good relationship…i could see dyan vicedio+ pitching prospect not named chris sale+ out field prospect(maybe danks for his defence) or maybe kenny and SD roll the dice or jared mitchell

  14. a few things fans are just that we cant complain about how much a player has cuz really all we can do is watch nor should it matter cuz its non of our business were not the ones playing the games were just the consumer or customer of mlb nothing more.as for the comment just cuz the rays cant sell dont mean they dont deserve the credit of winning the al east they need to do something and i think they will in the future but they drafted well during 03-07 and pittsburgh just recently did and could be the next rays in the NL stop being a biased ny fan.and if boston waits they could very well have a.gon without giving up any of there farm they just give up a 1st round draft pick.i dont know if there gonna get fielder or resign beltre and keep youk at 1st but something is gonna happen.stop being so biased with your teams they dont care about anything about you except you buying there stuff and getting your money you dont win anything regardless being smart guys

    • dickylarue 5 years ago

      I’d like to introduce you to the period (. ) It’s your friend.

    • dickylarue 5 years ago

      I’d like to introduce you to the period (. ) It’s your friend.

    • The Rays should move. The fans clearly don’t care, even with them being a great team. I agree, Pittsburgh deserves the Rays while Tampa really doesent deserve anything. It’s for the better of the Franchise, and Pittsburgh can become a 3 Team City again. Steelers, Pens, and the new Pittsburg Rays.

    • The Rays should move. The fans clearly don’t care, even with them being a great team. I agree, Pittsburgh deserves the Rays while Tampa really doesent deserve anything. It’s for the better of the Franchise, and Pittsburgh can become a 3 Team City again. Steelers, Pens, and the new Pittsburg Rays.

  15. a few things fans are just that we cant complain about how much a player has cuz really all we can do is watch nor should it matter cuz its non of our business were not the ones playing the games were just the consumer or customer of mlb nothing more.as for the comment just cuz the rays cant sell dont mean they dont deserve the credit of winning the al east they need to do something and i think they will in the future but they drafted well during 03-07 and pittsburgh just recently did and could be the next rays in the NL stop being a biased ny fan.and if boston waits they could very well have a.gon without giving up any of there farm they just give up a 1st round draft pick.i dont know if there gonna get fielder or resign beltre and keep youk at 1st but something is gonna happen.stop being so biased with your teams they dont care about anything about you except you buying there stuff and getting your money you dont win anything regardless being smart guys

  16. YanksFanSince78 5 years ago

    Holy run on sentence Batman!!

  17. YanksFanSince78 5 years ago

    Agreed. I seriously doubt Boston will pursue any marque type power hitter this off season via trade because of the cost alone, especially with AGone available as a FA next off season and Boston as it looks now, the team that can and will pay whatever it takes to sign him.

    Why give SD anything, except a 1st round pick if they refuse to understand how valuable he is to them? How many other teams can even AFFORD what it would/will take to sign him that need a 1B and give him a chance at the playoffs on a yearly basis?
    ——————

    Hey John. I think a lot of people are misreading the terms of a Agonz trade. He does not have a non trade clause so he can’t block a trade or insist on an extension. He only makes $5.5 mil next year so any team can afford him. He has ZERO leverage. Therefor any team willing to give up the right players and has a need for a 1B or DH can trade for Agonz. So this idea that the Sox somehow hold an advantage or that there’s a limited pool of teams to collaborate with is wrong. The Marlins can trade for Agonz if they are willing to give up players the Padres want. I myself at first was looking at this the wrong way. The Padres have ZERO concern as for whether or not Agonz will be happy with where he will be traded or whether or not that team will contend. Now, it’s true that teams given a chance to deal with Agonz regarding an extension might allow them to ask more from teams that can afford to extend Agonz but they can absolutely get more than the equivalent to a 1st round pick in talent. Look at what the A’s gave up to get 1 year of Matt Holiday.

    A’s to Colorado: Carlos Gonzalez and Huston Street

    and then what the A’s got for Holliday when they flipped him to the Cardinals for 2 months of service.

    Brett Wallace (2008 1st rnd pick), Shane Peterson (2008 2nd rnd pick) and Clayton Mortenson (2007 1st rnd pick).

    the Padres can demand a nice package for 1 year of Holliday and that team can flip him in July and get a decent return as well. Agonz is only owed $5.5 mil so that assures that any and every team can be in play.

  18. YanksFanSince78 5 years ago

    I meant..the Padres can demand a nice package for 1 year of Agonz…

    • Yook isn’t exactly Mr. Durable, so if I were the Red Sox I’d be happy with him at 1B and wouldn’t be in the Fielder/AGon sweepstakes as hard as you think they will be. There are better places to spend those dollars, like the left side of the infield, the outfield, C, and the bullpen.

      At the very least teams like Toronto and Baltimore are going to make sure it’s VERY expensive for the Red Sox to land a premier 1B by getting involved and driving up the price.

  19. johnsilver 5 years ago

    A team has to have a fan base to even afford a salary floor. can anyone even fathom how franchises like the Fish and padres could pay 80-100M base with what they have with core fan support? neither team can fill a stadium with 1-2nd place teams, same goes with the Rays unless Boston or the NYY come to town and then the fans are 3/4 for the opposition which know for a fact since go to several of those games and why the Rays core fans ring those infernal cow bells in an attempt to drown out the cheering for the opposition fans cheering.

    Just so many teams without a need to exist at all and if the Padres don’t keep the perfect example of home town player/hero wrapped into on? teams need to just disappear and starting with the Padres and marlins, then work on the Bucs, maybe even the Rays.

  20. That can’t be possible since smaller market cities can’t compete with the big boys.
    It is called “REVENUE SHARING”.

  21. Just_MLB 5 years ago

    Umm…every team is getting at least 50 mil in both mlb merchandise rev. sharing + MLB advanced media profit sharing….and thats before one ticket is even sold.
    A Salary cap AND a Salary floor are both needed.
    the floor should be in the 50-60 mil range. the cap should be at 100 mil.

    above all else, there should be an audit and the results publicly made available.

  22. cjmsd 5 years ago

    Everyone needs to remember that this is a business, not something they do because they want people to be happy. There is no way Moorad could field a team right now at $60-70 million and payback the $500 million he and his partners kicked in for buying the team.

    And no their books shouldn’t be open. Its none of my business what they make unless I am a shareholder. It is a private business and we are all just a consumer of their product.

  23. Wainwrights_Curveball 5 years ago

    These teams are not publicly traded companies, so I don’t see why the results should be made to public.

  24. johnsilver 5 years ago

    Hey.. I am all for it and no hidden revenue that owners want to cover up, stop teams having to share with cable/team owned income they own like NYY with YES network, Boston with NESN that the rest of the league had -0- to do with startup costs, yet now MLB thinks the teams should be forced to pay MLB for the right to show other teams? interesting how MLB operates with this trickle down theory to support teams that have lousy cable and fan bases, plus payrolls in the sub 50M range.

    Also agree with setting a sliding scale, over a several year range increasing yearly salary floor. Starting at say a 50M range and increasing up towards 80m and maybe 100m even. This over a 5 year period with these always the same teams having a choice of being able to do it on their own, or be forced out of the league and folding, no selling, no nothing else.

    For too many years the Luria’s of the league have been allowed to run and make a laughing stock of revenue sharing and have paltry salaries, same with Pittsburgh, Padres as well. several other teams like the Rays fall into this category also.

    Ever since the talent pool of MLB players was diluted with expansion starting in 1976 in larger numbers, MLB began to lose it’s market share more and more to both the NFL and the NBA. Start to get it back by offering a better product by getting rid of the inferior teams by forcing them to do what they are supposed to be doing in the 1st place.. Put and pay a team on the field that is competitive and stay that way and the ones that cannot? Go by the way side with no more tax payer funded boondoggle stadiums pitched to the citizens as an excuse for lousy ownership, or locations.

  25. The_Porcupine 5 years ago

    I agree in principle with have a salary floor and possibly even a cap. I’m not sure public records are necessary, but I would want there to enforce it.

  26. The_Silver_Stacker 5 years ago

    Salary caps dont work

  27. I agree there should be both a cap and a floor, but both need to be higher than the numbers you quoted. The floor needs to be closer to $70 million. No team has less than $140 million in revenue when you include profit sharing & passing 50% of it to the players should be a minimum.

    The cap should be much higher. Maybe in the $150-160 million range with increases for inflation. And it needs to include signing bonuses for draft picks AND International Free Agent signings.

    I think a hard salary cap may be a hard sell for the players union though. Maybe they would be a little more amenable if there was an exception for teams to go over the cap in resigning one of their own players.

  28. Just_MLB 5 years ago

    so why is it made public what Alex Rodriguez makes ?
    so why is it made public what Joe Torre makes ?
    so why is it made public what Theo Epstein makes ?

  29. Just_MLB 5 years ago

    its actually not trickle down economics as much a socialistic style of economics.
    on one level it works, and i dont mind it. as it is impossible for a team like tampa to compete with a team like the yankees based on several factors.
    i just wish owners would stop lying about how broke they are, when u find out they are getting money hand over fist. with revenue sharing, they will never go out of business. they will just be the guy on welfare with 4,000 dollar rims that serves u a nasty disgusting burger at Wendy’s and says he is broke. so yeah, it is kinda insulting

    Wendy’s = pirates
    burger = their players

  30. Jessamynn 5 years ago

    Nevermind.

  31. Just_MLB 5 years ago

    so what is the point in hiding how much money MLB teams are making ?

  32. cjmsd 5 years ago

    I don’t recall why salaries are published. I believe it became public because of some disagreement with the players and owners but I may be wrong.

    I any event, just because their salaries of the players are public, doesn’t mean you have a right to look at the teams income statement. It is still a private business bottom line. It shouldn’t matter to you how much they make off concessions, spend in scouting or pay their trainers.

  33. Just_MLB 5 years ago

    really ?
    so its ok to take public funds to help create a stadium…but not ok to show the tax-payers how much money u really make ?

  34. Just_MLB 5 years ago

    so does ” in any event” really mean, who cares about the double-standard…just because a person’s salary is made public, doesn’t mean a companies income statements should be made public. a company’s income statement should be treated with more respect and privacy than an individual’s.

    smh…

  35. cjmsd 5 years ago

    That is a completely different train of thought. I am completely against public financing of any sports stadiums.

  36. johnsilver 5 years ago

    That is mostly the point we are discussing here though isn’t it? Forcing teams to have a bare minimum salary floor. The only thing in question is what that would be and how far the league would go to enforce it.

  37. cjmsd 5 years ago

    I think it should be kept private. It’s none of my business how much these players make.

  38. Just_MLB 5 years ago

    but its not the case…and hasnt been the case since the days of Babe Ruth ( and probably further back )

    there is a huge double-standard in both instances. and most people are faithfully defending economic dogmas and ignore these double-standards. at the end of the day, they are supporting a concept in the hope that when/if u own that company, it will benefit u too. in general, it’s extremely self-centered in nature and only helps to foster the exploitation of PEOPLE. in layman’s terms. defend the corporations that exploit u cuz one day u may get to be in their shoes.

  39. cjmsd 5 years ago

    I know that its not the case, I never said it was. I simply stated that I don’t believe any of it should be public just like in any other private company. I am not trying to support a double standard or foster the exploitation of people. You are going waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay off topic and reading way to much in to a very short comment. Calm down buddy.

  40. Stadiums shouldn’t receive public funding, but as long as they are, then the teams should be opening their books.

  41. Stadiums shouldn’t receive public funding, but as long as they are, then the teams should be opening their books.

  42. Just_MLB 5 years ago

    u mean they dont work for yankee fans.
    salary caps are in place for nfl/nhl/nba.
    they seem to be working out ok for them.

  43. Just_MLB 5 years ago

    yeah but revenue sharing is sorta like welfare. ur not even encouraged to make money on ur own, ur always relying on the rich to feed u.

  44. Just_MLB 5 years ago

    w/o doing so is like applying for public assistance ( welfare ) without putting down how much money u make.

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