Two years ago the Reds took a gamble on 39-year-old lefty Arthur Rhodes, signing him to a two-year, $4MM deal. Last we read, interest was mutual on a new contract. Still, let's examine Rhodes' free agent stock.
The Good
- Since returning to the National League at the 2008 trade deadline, Rhodes has a 2.22 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, and 0.52 HR/9 in 121 2/3 innings across 160 appearances. He's allowed only 86 hits in that time.
- Rhodes dominated lefties this year in 23 2/3 innings, and was solid against them the previous two seasons. His consistent ability to prevent them from getting hits is not credited in a stat like xFIP.
- Rhodes has been around since 1991, so he should offer the intangible of veteran wisdom.
The Bad
- Rhodes is a Type A free agent. We'll know late tomorrow whether the Reds offer arbitration. If Rhodes turns down such an offer, a new team would have to surrender a draft pick to sign him. This could hurt his market quite a bit.
- Rhodes turned 41 last month, which may give teams pause if he seeks a two-year deal.
- He doesn't get many groundballs. That hasn't stopped him from preventing home runs, but some clubs could be concerned. Also, Rhodes is ordinary against right-handed hitters.
- ESPN's Keith Law wasn't kind in his relievers buyer's guide, saying Rhodes' stuff was diminished toward the end of the year and he is "a bad month away from a forced retirement." Would he succeed back in the American League? In Rhodes' defense, he dealt with a sore foot for much of the season.
The Verdict
Rhodes' Type A designation could prevent him from getting another two-year deal. If the Reds offer arbitration, his best move might be to accept rather than try to score a contract elsewhere with the draft pick stigma attached. He'd still be in pretty good shape with a potential $4MM salary for 2011. If the Reds do not offer arbitration, I think Rhodes will get another two-year deal.
