It took a year and a half, but James Paxton finally got paid. The Mariners announced the signing of the 2010 fourth round pick and, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America, the deal is worth $942.5K (Twitter links)
The Blue Jays selected Paxton 37th overall in the first round of the 2009 draft, but didn't sign him. The left-hander turned down slot money (approximately $874K), according to Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun (on Twitter). Paxton spent the 2010 season with the Grand Prairie AirHogs of the independent American Association after the NCAA ruled that he wasn’t eligible to resume his college career at the University of Kentucky.
Though most draftees have to sign by the middle of August, the deadline doesn’t apply to college seniors or players drafted out of independent leagues. ESPN.com's Keith Law first reported that the sides were close to a deal and Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times first reported the agreement.
What year was Paxton in?
Does “College juniors who don’t sign are available in the next draft” means that they can start their senior year under NCAA rules? But Paxton wasn’t eligible? What made him ineligible?
Scott Boras
his relationship with scott boras got him banned
So that quote includes “unless juniors are not contacted by agents?” But aren’t most of prospect college players have agents these days?
I believe most of them have “advisors.” Which is code for “agents.”
As a Canadian and a Blue Jays fan, is it wrong for me to want to see this kid fail?
yes, he was a kid and was influence by Boras in to making a mistake
doesnt mean hes a bad kid or that you should be happy if he fails
Plus Beeston….
I still AND WILL ALWAYS think that the Morrow for League/Chavez deal was related to the Cliff Lee deal. I very much believe that Morrow was intended to be part of the Lee deal but it may have delayed the talks (guessing) and Jack wanted the deal done quickly. Why else would the Morrow trade happen a week or two after the big Lee deal? AA and Jack had some verbal sidelines that promised Morrow to Toronto for some assembly of yet known players. Players who eventually turned out to be League and Johermyn Chavez.
Its very logical once you think about it. Jack Z KNEW he was getting an absolute STEAL with sending the garbage he did to Philly for Lee. He would obviously want to get that trade consummated ASAP to prevent other GMs from seeing the crap Seattle was offering for Lee and one-up them. It also makes sense that the Jays would get more that Drabek, d’Arnaud and Taylor for the best pitcher in baseball at the time. Throw Morrow in there and it again, makes sense that it was just supposed to be a bigger 3-team trade that was broken down into two separate deals.
Seattle gets:
Lee
League
Chavez
Philly gets:
Halladay
Aumont
Ramirez
Gillies
Toronto gets:
Morrow
Drabek
Taylor
d’Arnaud
So Seattle would then have dealt Morrow, Aumont, Ramirez, and Gillies for Lee, League and Chavez. Makes more sense, doesn’t it.
makes sense..
the morrow trade just looks one sided now only because chavez hasn’t hit the majors yet..
I’m not sure why there isn’t more hype about that kid…. 32 dingers and a .964 ops… the deal will look a lot more even once he hits the bigs
It’s called hitting in High Desert. Chavez does look good, but lets see if he can pump out 25 or jacks in Jackson this year, then I will jump on his bandwagon.
yikes. As an M’s fan there’s just no way Paxton’s upside is anything approaching Morrow’s. Paxton is maybe a #2 in an absolutely perfect world. Morrow’s a Cy Young winner in that world.
Now, i don’t think either of them will ever be anything approaching those levels, but that’s where the respective ceilings are.
BTW, I don’t want Morrow to fail. It’s not like he asked to be traded. I’m a big Z fan, but that was a terrible move.
Theres some risk with Paxton obviously sitting out but theres no way you can say Paxton doesn’t have Morrow ceiling why? Because Morrows fastball is flat it has no movement plus hes a walk machine. Id also like to add Morrow has Diabities who knows how badly this could affect him down the road (Im not sure if this will i just read it in an article.)
lol morrow’s fastball is flat?
u have no clue what you’re talking about.
when the guy is on, he’s un hittable
his fastball was flat, until the jays pitching coaches got a hold of him.
I don’t think Morrow is a Cy Young candidate. He’s proven thus far that he cannot command his fastball, and his secondary stuff is highly inconsistent. IMO, he will never have the control to consistently pitch deep into games or string together 30 stellar starts.
But I sure wish Jack hadn’t traded him. Every time he pitched I expected something special. I think Paxton has that kind of potential.
Yup. A 3.16 FIP is definitely a number for a pitcher who is “highly inconsistant.”
Closed-minded Mariners fans need to get a clue.
Close-minded is using a single stat to support an argument, or name call in your case.
FIP is not an end-all-be-all stat. Any pitcher who throws gas can have a great FIP year– see: Loaiza, Esteban.
Brandon Morrow was never a low HR guy until last year. Lets see him keep that rate down in the 7% range again. And while we’re there, let’s see him keep the K’s up around 11%. And let’s see him average better than 5 2/3 IP/start. And not get injured.
Changing his arm slot angle has helped him become more of a pitcher than a thrower
It masks his slider better leading to more k’s, hitters are less sure of what they’re getting, leading to less opponent HR’s.
Also his arm strength and endurance issues could be a direct result of being mishandled previously in his career. Some stability should put an end to those issues.
For Brandon and Toronto’s sake, I hope you are right.
FIP is not an end-all-be-all stat.
No, it isn’t. But it’s a stat to be heavily considered for how good he actually was in his first full year as a starter. Keep in mind too he had an unlucky .342 BABIP.
Brandon Morrow was never a low HR guy until last year.
2007: 3.8% FB/HR ratio
I will inarguably concede that he needs to follow up 2010 with a similar, if not better year to prove that he’s actually for real, but it looks as if he may be. Also, never did I intend “closed-minded” as “name calling” (RE: laugh), but rather saying he was inconsistant after a solid 4.06 BB/9.
Inconsistent: Morrow, Brandon
1. Length of Starts: four or fewer IP- (5); five to six IP- (14); seven+ IP- (6).
2. Month by Month stats:
April: whip (1.46); avg. (.248);
May: whip (1.69); avg. (.279)
June: whip (1.09); avg. (.218)
July: whip (1.57); avg. (.297)
Aug: whip (1.02); avg. (.189)
3. # of pitches/game: under 90 (8); 90-100 (10); 100+ (8).
Most pitches thrown: 137 (114 2nd most)
Fewest pitches thrown: 67 (71 2nd most, 79 3rd most)
4. Inconsistency between starts:
April: shelled twice, followed by three solid starts
May: lousy, awful, solid, awful, meh, strong
June: Four solid to great starts
July: bombed, bombed, nice, nice
Aug: awful, spectacular, weak, solid, solid
Sep: bombed
Most every one of his percentages improved in 2010, no question. Hopefully he can keep it up.
But don’t tell me he’s anything resembling a consistent pitcher. We have no idea what to expect when he takes the mound. He is special one game, dreadful the next. He can bookend one of the greatest outings in recent memory with two pukey ones. I’ve watched him pitch plenty. I’ve seen the good Brandon Morrow and the evil Brandon Morrow. The evil one showed up less often in 2010, but he’s far from banished.
If he could consistently put the ball where he wanted his stats wouldn’t look the way they do. He’s gotten better, but he’s still a grab bag special.
You better hope he keeps runners off the bases, stays ahead in the count, and pitches all his games at home, or he SUCKS. Or at least he’s inconsistent.
Embarrassed?
Out of all Brandon Morrow’s starts, there were only 4 starts where he was truly horrific: April 9th, April 25th, May 10th [was probably his worst], and his last start [BABIP was well over .500]. There are too many variables that can inflate a pitchers ERA, or AVG that are out of his hands.
Hence, again, I reiterate that his FIP and BABIP suggest that he was a better pitcher than his ERA indicates, and his ERA was a result of both bad luck, and below league-average range on defense. Taken from FanGraphs:
Shut down due to an innings limit earlier this month, Morrow’s first full season as a big league starter has been a smashing success for the Blue Jays, even if his ERA doesn’t necessarily agree. His 10.95 K/9 was by far the best by a pitcher with at least 140 IP (Yovani Gallardo and Jon Lester tied for second at 9.71), and even though his 4.06 BB/9 is a tad high, it did improve as the summer went on. A .348 BABIP is a little up there for a guy that gets swings-and-missed 11.0% of the time, and the 69.0% LOB% is a bit on the low side. Either way, there’s every reason to expect Morrow to continue to improve with experience, and he could be primed for a take-off next season.
WHIP
• 1st half: 1.41
• 2nd half 1.30 (marginal improvement, but noteworthy)
FIP
• 1st half: 3.44
• 2nd half: 2.78 (independantly pitched over half a run better)
While these examples don’t argue your points of consistancy, they do show that he was consistantly improving.
Again, I don’t disagree that if he regresses back to his Mariners self that 2010 was most likely an outlier, and he definitely needs to improve on the road.
Don’t get me wrong here: I’ve still got my Brandon Morrow bobblehead on display.
As for 1st half vs. 2nd half, I don’t know where you’re getting your numbers. If it is pre-All Star vs. post-All Star then there is great improvement. If you include part of June then the #’s look even better. But post-A*S the guy only pitched 46 innings. Hardly substantial evidence. He’s capable of a good run. Most pitchers are.
Back to my original point: he’s not a CY candidate because he’s not consistent. I’m not saying it’s impossible; it would be unforetold IMO.
Correct hew not a Cy candidate. But the point was in a perfect world that’s his Ceiling, this is not a perfect world. Paxton perfect world would be lower then that. He went 37th overall to the Jays and they did not want to offer him for then slot. he went 4th round to Ms and they did not offer much more then the Jays. I know people hate morrow because he was picked higher then he should have been but on talent he was still a top 15 pick. That should end the debate on how scouts and teams fell about his ceilign
By the way im not wishing any ill well on Morrow as a Mariner fan i just don’t think hes that good. Time will tell and if im wrong i will admit.
An unusually bitter Mariners thread.
Oh well, it’s obvious Ken Spliffey Jr. is an ignorant fool.
Morrows ceiling with the mariners was collapsing. First a starter, than a closer, then starting again, then set up. He was going back and fourth and the M’s were too excited to have a talent like him. Really, we had no idea what we were doing with Morrow. He was gonna be dealt either way. So I actually like the trade. We get a good reliever and a power prospect. I thought it was fair.
Guys lol Morrow throws 1 walk per every 1.9 strikeouts in his career numbers. and with The Blue Jays he threw 1 walk per every 2.6 strikeouts which is why his career number went up lol. I dont call those numbers Cy Young Potential. Morrow never had a chance in seattle because he was so inconsistant so we continued to move him from the SP to RP. For all those that say the Ms Fans have no idea what they are talking about…Come back and apologize when Morrow goes out there this year and gets lit up. Morrow has some bright moments for us too sure he threw 17 strikeouts congrats…ok now lets see him do it again…. Morrow always starts out the season rocky and ends kinda decent but an era of 4.49 isnt stellar….and if thats stellar then what is leagues 3.42 era he had for the Ms he also posted 1 BB per 2 Stike Outs…The trade was pretty equal and the Ms got a decent hitter aswell, so technically the Ms won the trade.. AND if you think Im wrong provide me with some actually information instead of talking out the wrong part of your body 🙂
lol I guess with nothing to look forward to being a mariners fan, everyone has opted to hope ex players fail in order to feel good about themselves..
Newsflash, even if Morrow does fail, it won’t make your team any less pathetic..
(minus felix and ichiro, they rule)
Near the middle of the year was when Morrow started to come together. I forget what the actual stat was but it was something like for his last 15 games he has an era around 3.50. Also him home stats for the year was 8-1 with a 2.47 era and whip of 1.10 with a k/walk rate of more than 4. As well hes been working on a change up to add to his pitches this spring and so far the results are good.These are the numbers that make people believe he has the capabilities to be an ace.
Please don’t tell me you’re comparing a starter’s ERA to a relievers. Are you going to argue that Matt Cain’s ERA at 3.14 is garbage because Joakim Soria had a 1.78 ERA?
Im simply showing the fact that a 4.49 is not great or cy young material
By…comparing it to League’s great/cy young 3.42 ERA? I still don’t see what you were trying to accomplish by doing that.
I didn’t think they allowed “fake tough guys” on this site…
What did I say that was tough?
the ellipsis after the word by looks pretty mean from here
It’s the RuPaul of big men!
haha one of my fave shaq quotes of all time!
LOL I dont hope morrow fails…Like alot of people are saying we really dont care, but you all are over here saying that he has Cy Young Potential after seeing 1 year of medicore pitching. We saw 3 years of Medicore pitching and guess what no Cy Young Winner. As for our team being pathetic…..Look at the pot calling the kettle black last time you did anything good was almost 20 years ago….Thats nothing to brag about 😉
@Lunchbox45
I’m not sure when the change in mechanics took place, but I know in the first half he averaged 5 IP/GS, and in the second half he was 7⅓ IP/GS. Most of that is due to his walks being cut down from 4.4 BB/9 to 3.52.
RE: Disqus sucks.
it took place at the beginning of the year but by all accounts he said it didn’t become comfortable until a month or 2 in to the season.
To me I think doubters look at Morrow and say well he’s 25 and had a mediocre year with some brilliant flashes..
If he was 22, people would doubt less. To me I think his development was set back because of the way he was handled, This is him finding himself and figuring it out… he projects more confidence in himself, he’s starting to believe how good he is.
I may be a homer for understanding the health of a pitchers arm, but you would think that any pitcher being swapped from SP to RP and back would put some unfamiliar stress on it.
Indestructible….I didnt start insisting that the Ms were better then the blue jays….I was simply just reply to the guy who said the Ms are pathetic and we have done just as much as the blue jays in the past 15yrs
Then apologies for misreading your comment.
I think this makes Paxton the third Air Hogs’ player signed this off-season. Watched all of them a lot this summer(living in G.P. and all). Kid can pitch, but he’ll be rusty adjusting to major league pitching.
Again one of the biggest Seattle fails and trust me, there are many, was drafting Morrow in the first place, Lincecum really wanted to be a Mariner, he was a huge Mariners fan as was his dad, and we won’t even get to the Randy Johnson fail, the Griffey fail, the A-Rod fail, the Slowecomb fail, I could go on, but recently, in my mind, Its the Morrow over Lincecum, that and winning one too many games and not having Stasburg in the rotation with Felix, can you imagine the M’s with Felix, Lincecum,Strasburg, and for the sake they actually tried to extend him after stealing him, Lee? just chew on that.
If they drafted lincecum they wouldn’t have been in last to draft strasburg
They had Felix and finished almost last, point is they draft like poo.
this story has been at the top of the homepage like fifteen times. i still haven’t read it or the thread and i feel like this is why
YOU CANNOT BREAK MY WILL, MISTER NICHOLSON. SMITH.
they just kept bringing it back to the top of the page until you acknowledged it
now that you have done that it can be pushed down in to obscurity.
Lmao dissing Canada…don’t be too quick to diss an organization that has two more world series titles than yours.
Don’t get me wrong Ken Spliffey Jr, I am a huge Mariners fan, I grew up in Seattle, but that organization has pissed me off so many times, I remember all too well the players they failed to keep and just gave away because I wasn’t rich enough to go to Mariners games I would go to the Tacoma Rainiers games, I remember all of the players especially A-Rod, and Veritek, I wish someone who actually knows about baseball would take them over.
I also dislike Ken Griffey Jr, he was a catalyst in the A-Rod fiasco.