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If The Twins Become Sellers

By Tim Dierkes [May 11, 2011 at 11:55am CST]

Baseball Prospectus' postseason odds report gives the Twins a 7.6% chance of making the playoffs. They're currently 11 games out in the AL Central; no team is further from first place. I'm not counting them out - Joe Mauer, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Delmon Young, and Jim Thome will come off the DL at some point, and I don't think the Twins truly have the worst rotation in the American League. Still, this is a club no one considered a possible seller before the season. What could they offer a few months from now?

Relievers Joe Nathan and Matt Capps make more than $20MM combined this year, so trading them at the deadline would save the Twins nearly $7MM. Problem is, Nathan has been used in mop-up situations lately and he'll need to string together a few good months to have trade value. Even then, most teams will not be able to take on his entire contract. It's been an odd year for Capps, who's allowing a lot of flyballs, no walks, few hits, and few strikeouts. Still, he's five for six in save opportunities and someone might overpay for him again.
The Twins exercised a pretty steep $10.5MM option on Michael Cuddyer in November, and so far the decision has not paid off. He will also need to build up trade value.
Carl Pavano's strikeout rate continued to slip this year, but maybe he can right the ship and pitch to a low 4.00s ERA from here on out. Plenty of teams would like to acquire an innings guy, but would the Twins prefer to keep Pavano at $8.5MM for 2012?
Outfielder/DH Jason Kubel won't keep hitting .347, but he's having a great year and is only earning $5.25MM. Maybe the Twins want to re-sign him, but he could fetch something nice on the trade market. Assuming his back is OK, plenty of teams will be interested in renting Jim Thome as well.
The no-hitter notwithstanding, trading Francisco Liriano anytime soon would be selling low. When he's right he's what every contender craves: a front-end starter who is more than a rental. A few months ago trading Liriano seemed crazy, and it's possible the Twins still consider him integral for 2012.
Kevin Slowey recently recovered from a shoulder strain, but he's still mired in long relief for the Twins after making 28 starts in 2010. He's more affordable than Pavano and is under team control through 2013.