Keith Law On Epstein, Sizemore, Votto, Ricciardi

ESPN's Keith Law gave his thoughts on a number of prospects during a chat with readers today, and also expounded on a few Major League items.  The highlights…

  • Cubs fans should be excited about Theo Epstein's "ability to turn the Cubs' baseball ops department into a process-oriented, professionally run organization. You can't run a baseball team the way they were run 20 or 30 years ago. It's a business now, one where smart decisions based on sound processes are necessary and innovation is increasingly critical."
  • Law describes Brett Jackson (taken 31st overall by the Cubs in the 2009 amateur draft) as a "non-star prospect" and thinks he would be fair compensation for Epstein.
  • Law doesn't think Grady Sizemore can remain healthy as an everyday center fielder.  The Indians have a $9MM club option on Sizemore next season but will take their time in deciding on it, given that Sizemore just underwent knee surgery.
  • Between Joey Votto and Yonder Alonso, Law would deal Alonso and "look to win" in the remaining two years that Votto is under Reds' control.  Cincinnati GM Walt Jocketty recently shot down rumors that the Reds were listening to offers for the reigning NL MVP.
  • Law hears from his sources that J.P. Ricciardi isn't currently on the Orioles' short list of general manager candidates, as was reported on Tuesday by Law's ESPN colleague Buster Olney.  Law worked for the Blue Jays' front office from 2002-06 when Ricciardi was the team's general manager.
  • The Mariners "might have the best rotation in baseball by 2013 or so."
  • If given a choice of signing either Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols to a seven-year contract worth the same money, Law says he would choose the younger Fielder.  "Pujols is the better player right now, but even at his listed age I worry about his durability and potential decline," Law says.
  • Despite Alex Avila's breakout 2011 season, Law said he still prefers Matt Wieters as the better long-term player.


210 Responses to Keith Law On Epstein, Sizemore, Votto, Ricciardi Leave a Reply

  1. Rabbitov 4 years ago

    Riccardi off the short-list for the O’s.  Apparently the O’s read our posts on MLBTraderumors.

    Also nice to finnaaallly see someone give Wieters credit.  Dude was awesome this season. 

    • JohnnyC 4 years ago

      Ricciardi and Law are not bosom buddies so take it with a grain of salt.

    • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

      37% CS? must be nice

      • Rabbitov 4 years ago

        I can add it to my list of about 3 positives to take out of this season, but honestly 3 is even stretching it. 

        • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

          yea when i read that i was like wait what

          1 – wieters
          2 – knocking off the sox
          3 – …laughing at the sox?

          • MaineSox 4 years ago

            One of them has to be getting rid of McPhail, no?

          • Rabbitov 4 years ago

            He got rid of himself and his contract just ran out, so I don’t know its shaky whether it counts or not.  Its also bittersweet, he does wear a mean sweater-vest. 

          • MaineSox 4 years ago

            Aaah, the sweater vest.  I’m sure that’ll be hard to see go.

          • FamousGrouse 4 years ago

            I wear my sweater vest every Thanksgiving dinner.

          • chico65 4 years ago

            Is that you uncle Stu?

        • Hiring Dipoto.  #4.  PLEASE.

        • Hiring Dipoto.  #4.  PLEASE.

    • JohnnyC 4 years ago

      Ricciardi and Buck Showalter were both in the Yankees minor league system as coaches in the early to mid-eighties. And Buck will have a lot of input on who eventually is named GM.

      • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

        stop trying to kill his mood

      • Lunchbox45 4 years ago

        The only good thing about hiring jp, is that whoever the assistant gm is under him will master the art of gm’ing by learning to be anti jp…

        ‘if every instinct you have is wrong…then the opposite would have to be right’

    • 0bsessions 4 years ago

      There isn’t much not to like about Wierers’ performance this season. It sucks for him to be surrounded by so many non-entities because he really is a solid piece in an MLB catcher class that reaks of awful.

      If the Orioles’ new GM has any sense, his first order or business will be getting Wieters locked up and using him as a major building piece.

      And I hate to be that guy, but considering they won’t compete, taking a flyer on Varitek as a backup may be a good idea. Saltalamacchia took some major strides forward this season and he gives a lot of credit to Varitek for that. Wieters is around the bottom of the list of catchers who seem to actually need any help, but it couldn’t hurt at the minimal salary Varitek will likely command (Considering they’ll probably go for Lavarnway as backup, I don’t see the Sox even making an effort to keep him around).

      • Guest 4 years ago

        Eh…Wieters is fundamentally sound behind the plate.  Doesn’t allow pass balls, quick release, strong arm, and calls a good game.  He is a gold glove caliber catcher already making any Varitek signing pretty pointless.  Not to mention the Os are better off having an actual catcher as a backup so on Wiety off days they have an actual chance to win.

  2. soxfan0928 4 years ago

    “Law describes Brett Jackson (taken 31st overall by the Cubs in the 2009 amateur draft) as a “non-star prospect” and thinks he would be fair compensation to be sent to the Red Sox as compensation for Epstein.”

    Oh. My. God.
    Cubs fans are going to be irate. Just look at the “Theo Epstein Signs with Cubs” thread.

    • jayrig5 4 years ago

      In fairness, I think that question was more along the lines of if he had to take one or the other, he’d rather have Epstein for the next five years than Jackson.  I don’t think it means he thinks it’s what will or should happen.  At least that was my understanding of the context there.

      • soxfan0928 4 years ago

        Right, what I was saying was that everyone in the other thread thought it was an absolutely ridiculous and absurd price to even mention Jackson’s name in the discussion for compensation. And now Law comes out and says, if that is what indeed is traded, it would be fair.

        I do think it’s curious that Jackson is the only name that is brought up here. 

        • jayrig5 4 years ago

          Yeah.  I tweeted (shameless plug, except without my Twitter handle it’s meaningless!) just now that a combo of Steve Clevenger and Junior Lake would be a decent return…seems like they’re positions of relative depth for the Cubs and relative weakness for Boston.  But what do I know.

      • godzillacub 4 years ago

        I don’t know, Keith Law has always hated Brett Jackson. Never listing him on the top 100 (when BA and MLB did).

      • YanksFanSince78 4 years ago

        I disagree. He referred to Jackson as a “non-star” prospect (whatever that means). To me, he reminds me a lot of a Grady Sizemore type player. Power, speed, walks a lot and strikes out as well. To me, any player with 20/20 ability who can take a walk is star caliber.

        • Lunchbox45 4 years ago

           depends if he can stick at cf.. if he’s a corner outfielder 20/20 is meh i suppose.

          • godzillacub 4 years ago

            Ugh. Do research (unlike most of the professionals that MLBTR posts comments from). There is no doubt that Jackson “sticks” in center. The only “doubt” is if the Cubs have Jackson and Szczur since Jackson’s plus defense would get bumped to a corner spot for Szczur plus plus range.

          • YanksFanSince78 4 years ago

            You know how many OF’s had 20/20 seasons last year? 10…..out of what….90?

            They were Kemp, Ellsbury, Grandy, Braun, the Upton Bros, McCutchen, Young, Francoeur and Cargo. Is that a list of “mehs”?

          • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

            it’s the 20/20 thing that is overrated, not jackson. 20 stolen bases versus 10 or 15 is just not a very big deal

          • YanksFanSince78 4 years ago

            How is the combination of speed and power overrated? He has 4 out of 5 tools that scouts usually drool over? He has speed, power, defense and can draw a walk. He’s only had 2 1/2 seasons in the minors and albeit a small sample size, crushed the ball at age 22 in his first taste of AAA ball (.939 OPS in 215 PA). That’s a league with a lot of older pitchers in it and he more than held his own. If he were a Yankee or Sox player he would be a top 50 easy.

          • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

            he already is top 50

            “How is the combination of speed and power overrated?”

            this is like me saying 500 HRs is an arbitrary thresshold for greatness and you saying “how is power overrated”

            stolen bases are useful, but not extremely valuable. 20 isn’t a lot of them to begin with, and compared to 10 or 15 it really isn’t anything special. 20-20 is just a flashy figure

          • MikhelB 4 years ago

            And if its just a flashy figure, how come just 10 players achieved 20/20?

            Is it that they know it’s just a flashy figure and nobody will pay attention to it so just 10 dumb players had a 20/20 ’cause nobody told them it didn’t matter to position themselves in a better scoring position?

            The kid has power, and speed, so he could easily have a 30/30 season… overrated flashy figure? sure, ok, Ellsbury this year became the first bosox to have a 30/30 season.

          • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

            he already is top 50

            “How is the combination of speed and power overrated?”

            this is like me saying 500 HRs is an arbitrary thresshold for greatness and you saying “how is power overrated”

            stolen bases are useful, but not extremely valuable. 20 isn’t a lot of them to begin with, and compared to 10 or 15 it really isn’t anything special. 20-20 is just a flashy figure

          • godzillacub 4 years ago

            Jackson projects as a 3-4 WAR player, which is pretty dang good. I’m not a sold on the value of 20/20 guys, but that’s WAR’s a top 75 MLB position player.

          • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

            i don’t think jackson is overrated

          • MikhelB 4 years ago

            Thing is… if you try to argue with a bosox fan about a prospect the team they root for is trying to acquire, they will first ALWAYS say it is not a very good prospect, but once he’s in their team they will drool all over his stats and say how grandeur he is.

            That’s the way it is and has been since a lot of years ago… you’ll see how the primary bosox fanboy Gammons talks marvelous things about Jackson if the sox end up acquiring him.

          • 0bsessions 4 years ago

            Implying bias on notsureifsrs? Rookie mistake. You need to go back to MLBTR AAA and work on your post recognition if you want to make it here.

          • John DiRienzo 4 years ago

            completely agreed. Cubs fans have absolutely zero bias about the only decent prospect in their terrible farm system. Sox fans are hype machines. must be something in the dirty water.

          • MikhelB 4 years ago

            Thing is… if you try to argue with a bosox fan about a prospect the team they root for is trying to acquire, they will first ALWAYS say it is not a very good prospect, but once he’s in their team they will drool all over his stats and say how grandeur he is.

            That’s the way it is and has been since a lot of years ago… you’ll see how the primary bosox fanboy Gammons talks marvelous things about Jackson if the sox end up acquiring him.

          • godzillacub 4 years ago

            Jackson projects as a 3-4 WAR player, which is pretty dang good. I’m not a sold on the value of 20/20 guys, but that’s WAR’s a top 75 MLB position player.

          • 0bsessions 4 years ago

            For argument’s sake, if someone like Mike Scioscia was managing the Red Sox in 2010, Bill Hall would’ve had a shot at 20/20. As a utility player. He almost did it as a full time player for the Brewers in 2005 and probably could’ve if he played maybe ten more games. He has yet to make an ASG in his career.

            Mike Cameron did it five times in his career, just missing three times and he made exactly one All Star Game in his career and he had the added benefit of being one of the best defensive outfielders of the last decade or two (Top ten in outfielder UZR since 1995, top three in center field).

            20 home runs is pretty good power. 20 home runs combined with 20 steals is an arbitrary and coincidental figure that’s pretty effectively irrelevant.

            Do I think it’s neat that Ellsbury had a 30/30 season? Yeah. Do I think it makes him an All Star? No. The 30+ home runs combined with excellent defense combined with a high BA/OBP slash while playing a historically non-offense oriented position makes him an All Star, the 30+ steals is just gravy.
            20 home runs means a guy has got good, but not great, power. 20 steals means a guy has better than average, but not elite, baserunning skills. Combining the two doesn’t suddenly make a guy an All Star unless he’s putting up fantastic defense at a premium position and getting on base a ton.

            Jackson’s fully capable of being a future All Star IF he can make adjustments to the MLB. He’s probably starter material, but he’s not a sure thing for that role due to reported reported defensive inadequacies and that awful K rate.

          • Lunchbox45 4 years ago

            of course not, but all those players you listed gave a lot more than just 20/20..

            probably the best comparison for jackson is bj upton, and ya, bj upton is pretty meh..

            he’s not bad, but he’s certainly no justin.

          • godzillacub 4 years ago

            To be fair, BJ Upton hasn’t put up 20 (outside of this year) since 2007 and Jackson projects to get on base much better than Jackson’s career .324 OBP.

          • Lunchbox45 4 years ago

            agreed

          • godzillacub 4 years ago

            To be fair, BJ Upton hasn’t put up 20 (outside of this year) since 2007 and Jackson projects to get on base much better than Jackson’s career .324 OBP.

          • YanksFanSince78 4 years ago

            So now we look at him as a finished product and not a near mlb ready player who was drafted in 2009 and already shows speed, power and the ability to draw a walk? Really? 

            And you look at the failures of Upton w/o acknowledging the tremendous potential he simply hasn’t filled yet? Even in an off season he was still a top 25 OF’er who had a 4.1 WAR despite just “ok” defense. 

          • Lunchbox45 4 years ago

            no ones treating him as a finished product, he could improve.

            however there are some things that suggest that he may not transition to mlb pitching well, including a 30% k rate and a really high babip..

            and who says bj upton hasn’t filled his potential yet? That’s a common misconsception that many people place on players who are “toolsy” . Realistically though, how many of these 4 or 5 tool guys actually pan out?  Upton consistently wiffs 25% of the time, and his breakout, 2007 season his BABip was .393 and has since regressed back down to the low .300’s… The reality is that despite being super athletic, bj upton might just be what he is.

            There’s absolutely NOTHING wrong with a 4.0 WAR CF, but that would be close to Jackson’s ceiling (unless he commands the strike zone better). Again not saying he’s a dud, but I agree with the ‘non-star’ tag that Klaw gave him.

          • FamousGrouse 4 years ago

            He had a 30% K rate for one season. The other 2 are 20-25% K rate seasons.

          • MaineSox 4 years ago

            Jackson doesn’t have the same potential as Upton though, Jackson pretty much projects as becoming what Upton has been (not what Upton could be).

          • YanksFanSince78 4 years ago

            So now we look at him as a finished product and not a near mlb ready player who was drafted in 2009 and already shows speed, power and the ability to draw a walk? Really? 

            And you look at the failures of Upton w/o acknowledging the tremendous potential he simply hasn’t filled yet? Even in an off season he was still a top 25 OF’er who had a 4.1 WAR despite just “ok” defense. 

        • MaineSox 4 years ago

          I don’t know about Law, but some scouting guys are projecting him as a LF.  Those numbers from a left fielder aren’t really star caliber (though they aren’t bad).

          • John Arguello 4 years ago

            Jackson will be a CF’er.  The only talk about putting him in LF is as a replacement if the Cubs dump Soriano and decide to keep Byrd in CF for his last year. The only other reason he may move from CF is if Matt Szczur supplants him.

          • MaineSox 4 years ago

            I don’t know how you can be so certain when there is disagreements about that even among professional scouts.  BA has been pretty much “meh” on him as a center fielder saying he can “get the job done,” but that he’s “not a pure center fielder,” and Marc Hulet said “Defensively, he can handle center field but may end up in left field. He’s still improving his reads and routes, and his arm strength is just average” while BP quoted an American League scout as saying “He’s a strong, sturdy kid with a chance to be an above-average center fielder in the big leagues, with a fall-back of being a solid corner or fourth outfielder,” and a National League scout as saying “It looks like he’s going to be able to stay in an up-the-middle position on the defensive spectrum.”

            So I don’t know if you know something that I don’t, but I’m not seeing the certainty that you are.

          • John Arguello 4 years ago

            I see what you mean but let me clarify…what I mean is this: he’s a CF unless someone chases him out of there. He won’t play LF because he’s not good enough to play CF. Those reports aren’t all that different.  He’s not going to be a defensive whiz out there, but even the most pessimistic reports say he can handle CF.  And if he can handle CF, then there’s no reason to move him from there unless the Cubs get someone better to play there — and the only person in the Cubs system with a chance to do that is Matt Szczur. 

          • MaineSox 4 years ago

            That sounds like pretty much the same thing people were saying about Kalish a couple years ago; he could handle CF, but would be better suited for LF (RF in Kalish’s case) if you have someone better.  So it still sounds non committal on whether he should be a center fielder or not.

          • MaineSox 4 years ago

            That sounds like pretty much the same thing people were saying about Kalish a couple years ago; he could handle CF, but would be better suited for LF (RF in Kalish’s case) if you have someone better.  So it still sounds non committal on whether he should be a center fielder or not.

          • MaineSox 4 years ago

            I don’t know how you can be so certain when there is disagreements about that even among professional scouts.  BA has been pretty much “meh” on him as a center fielder saying he can “get the job done,” but that he’s “not a pure center fielder,” and Marc Hulet said “Defensively, he can handle center field but may end up in left field. He’s still improving his reads and routes, and his arm strength is just average” while BP quoted an American League scout as saying “He’s a strong, sturdy kid with a chance to be an above-average center fielder in the big leagues, with a fall-back of being a solid corner or fourth outfielder,” and a National League scout as saying “It looks like he’s going to be able to stay in an up-the-middle position on the defensive spectrum.”

            So I don’t know if you know something that I don’t, but I’m not seeing the certainty that you are.

    • Jntg4 4 years ago

      Law didn’t even like Castro too much, he hates the Cubs… not as an excuse, but literally….

      • So he hates the Cardinals and the Cubs?  Fans of midwestern baseball teams, Keith Law is a very smart baseball mind.  If he says something about your team that you don’t like, maybe he’s wrong…or maybe you guys are just biased.

        • Jntg4 4 years ago

          He was sure wrong about Hak-Ju Lee before the Garza trade (turns out he did like Castro, I wasn’t remembering right).

        • godzillacub 4 years ago

          Or he is. Hak-Ju Lee jumped to his top 25 by being traded to the Rays. BEFORE the break-out season.

          • John Arguello 4 years ago

            I made the same observation and he got all upset about it.  I’ve never seen a prospect jump so high in the rankings simply by changing uniforms and not playing a single game.

          • Lunchbox45 4 years ago

            “if Friedman wanted him, he must be good”

          • 0bsessions 4 years ago

            This is a rationale I’m perfectly willing to accept.

          • FamousGrouse 4 years ago

            It could be just he has a closer path to MLB now.

    • FamousGrouse 4 years ago

      Red Sox take the money. When you have a great scouting department like the Sox do you take the money and sign a high school kid that “is going to college”. Or a high reward/risk international signing. 

  3. baseball52 4 years ago

    Ugh, if it’s not Szczur, Jackson, or McNutt I’ll be ok with it.

  4. JohnnyC 4 years ago

    Listed age? Keith knows something about that? Spill.

    • stl_cards16 4 years ago

      Or he’s just another uninformed opinion from a “professional” that hasn’t researched the circumstances in which Albert came to the states.  It would have made no sense for him to lie about his age.

      • MaineSox 4 years ago

        or he recognizes that there are people out there who doubt it is true and was allowing for that opinion as well.

        • stl_cards16 4 years ago

          Doubted what was true?  That he moved to the states and attended high school?  There are plenty of documents that prove that to be true.  He did not move over here for baseball, he didn’t sign a contract to come straight over and play.  All that he would of achieved by lying would have been to delay the amount of time until he got paid.  Now does that sound anything like a good reason for someone to lie coming from a poor comunity trying for a better his life?

          • MaineSox 4 years ago

            Doubt that his listed age is true.  I don’t doubt it, and I don’t think Law doubts it, but there are people who do doubt it and I think he was recognizing that.

  5. Wooly2010 4 years ago

    Giving up one prospect for a GM that will likely produce many more like him (or better than him) is completely fine in my books.  As a Cubs fan, what else could I want?

    • Jntg4 4 years ago

      A lower more reasonable price and a scenario where we can trade Byrd this off-season?

  6. Jackson is a 20-20 player. I don’t know if that star.  Thats definitely solid.

  7. My bet is that the Tribe don’t want to pick up Grady’s option, but don’t want to let him walk for nothing, either, so they’ll try to trade him.   Maybe Carmona as well.

  8. Brett Jackson is Tyler Colvin part 2

    • Jntg4 4 years ago

      The only similarity they have is both being Cubs…

      • You will see the similarities when he reaches the majors.He is nothing special and the Cubs should give him up to the Sox

        • godzillacub 4 years ago

          Oh, the old “he sucks . . . please give him to us” trick.

    • YanksFanSince78 4 years ago

      Yeah except that Jackson has more speed and a MUCH, MUCH higher walk rate compared to what Colvin showed in the minors. Except for those two very big differences you are right…..they are like twins…by twins I mean like how Devito and Schwarzenegger were in the movie “Twins”. 

  9. twenty1thirteen 4 years ago

    Keith Law is the Michele Bachmann of baseball writers. 

    • timmytwoshoezzz 4 years ago

      ouch, isn’t that selling Michele Bachmann a little short?

      • start_wearing_purple 4 years ago

        Not if you’ve listened to her speak.

        • timmytwoshoezzz 4 years ago

          I have, and it ain’t pretty.  My comment was a little slap at KLaw more than an affirmation of Bachmann’s stage presence.  I’m not trying to turn this into a political blog…

        • 0bsessions 4 years ago

          I had the benefit of seeing her in quote form first, so I’ve made a succesful effort to avoid ever actually hearing her speak.

          I imagine it’s probably along the lines of the difference between seeing pictures of World War II and fighting in World War II. The pictures are often gruesome and unsettling, but it probably won’t give you PTSD.

  10. Bob George 4 years ago

    Brett Jackson is Adam Dunn with half the power, but can play defense and run. That makes him an average major league starting OF but nothing to get excited about. If the Red Sox want him for Theo, by all means, give him up.

    • Jntg4 4 years ago

      He hits for a pretty high average though, and is a lead-off hitter, not sure I like that comparison.

    • imachainsaw 4 years ago

      so in other words, he’s not adam dunn at all?

    • dodgers33dodgers 4 years ago

      Brett Jackson is Adam Dunn…but nothing like…lol thats basically what you just said!

      • Bob George 4 years ago

        No, he’s similar to Dunn in that he’s a low contact hitter who draws a lot of walks. Nobody is projecting Jackson to be a .280 hitter at the majors. The one advantage he has over Dunn is he can play defense and isn’t a DH, but he doesn’t have consistent power. He also strikes out a ton, like Dunn.

        Bottom line, Jackson might, MIGHT, develop into a solid starting outfielder. But you have to give up something to get something, as always, and a top GM is far more valuable than an average, at best, starting position player.

        • dodgers33dodgers 4 years ago

          i agree with wanting epstein over jackson…just not the comparison of a guy with speed and plays defense with not as much power, to a guy whos slow cant play defense and has power…besides this year lol…but i agree that its a better deal for the cubs!

        • imachainsaw 4 years ago

          What basis do you have for that assumption? When an owner has already stressed the importance of building through the farm, he’s not going to allow his biggest piece to leave. Maybe if he weren’t a baseball fan.

          If he weren’t more valuable than law and gammons think, why are there sox fans like you militantly pushing it? Obviously, he’s thought of as more than just “MIGHT, develop into a solid starting outfielder”

        • NomarGarciaparra 4 years ago

          So then a better comparison would’ve been Jack Cust. Jack Cust = Adam Dunn with less power. All their other attributes are the same, so essentially at least Jackson would be more similar to Cust in the power department.

        • YanksFanSince78 4 years ago

          A low contact hitter? Despite the .292 career batting average, huh? 

          Exactly what is someone’s idea of a “solid mlb OF”? How many OF’er project to hit 20 hrs and have 20 SB while patrolling CF?

          • Lunchbox45 4 years ago

            k rates close to 30%, BABip close to .375

            I’m just looking at the other side of it, he can very well turn in to a star, but I see the reason for the skepticism.

            You don’t want to get in to Alex Rios comparisons

          • YanksFanSince78 4 years ago

            We’re talking prospects here and I just find it interesting that ppl are harping on the one “true” negative (strikeouts) and not the other positives (speed, power, defense and ability to draw a walk). How many times has anyone harped on the fact that Sizemore struck out ove4 130 times the 4 seasons he posted a 5.0 WAR or better? 

            I’m not saying he’ll be the next Sizemore but I see a young player that has speed, can draw a walk and has recently discovered his power who’s playing at AAA during his age 22 season.

          • Lunchbox45 4 years ago

             I don’t think we’re disagreeing on anything really.

    • vtadave 4 years ago

      James Loney is Albert Pujols with a third of the power.

      • dodgers33dodgers 4 years ago

        lol loney isnt even a third of the player Pujols is…lol i wish he was!!

        • vtadave 4 years ago

          Heh well, he did have a third the HRs Pujols had…

    • NomarGarciaparra 4 years ago

      LMAO wtf kind of comparison is that?
      Dunn = power, can’t run, can’t play D
      If Jackson = 1/2 power, run, play D…then he’s not Dunn at all!

      that’s like saying Brett Gardner is like David Ortiz with a fraction of the power, but can play defense and run…good comparison..

    • NomarGarciaparra 4 years ago

      To make an even better comparison, I’m like Albert Pujol with no power, no defense, and no speed. Did I mention I also can’t hit, nor would I ever walk? But nevertheless, I’m like Pujols…with those differences only.

    • Lunchbox45 4 years ago

      Brett Jackson is more like frank Thomas, but with less power…and can play defense and run…

      • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

        i can see that. he reminds me a lot more of gredd maddux though, only with everything different

        • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

          gredd maddux everybody

          • Lunchbox45 4 years ago

            lol i love that instead of editing your post you call yourself out on the typo

          • Ben_Cherington 4 years ago

            never heard of him

  11. Steven St Croix 4 years ago

    KLaw is terrible. I can’t believe he still has a job in baseball

  12. When is it fair to say that Wieters is a bust, or at least not “mauer with power” when he was in the minors, the projections were like 25+ home runs, .300 average, and more. Same thing for matusz and tillman.

    • tomymogo 4 years ago

      When he doesn’t show signs of improvement with a 778 OPS with great defense at age 25.

      Mauer’s second season in mlb had a 783 OPS

    • Lunchbox45 4 years ago

      Wieters was unfairly over hyped… He’s still a good player and defensively he’s really coming in to his own

    • gradylittle 4 years ago

      .262 with 22 homers in 500 at bats, sounds like a great catcher to me, how many everyday catchers are doing that?

      • YanksFanSince78 4 years ago

        He’s “Bench-lite”. And he’s still only 25. 

    • YanksFanSince78 4 years ago

      I’m just really shocked at some of the posts I’m reading today, especially from ppl I respect. Since when is a 25 yo C who hits 22 hrs (doubled his 2011 total), with the highest UZR (+5) and who is second in WAR among C a bust? 

    • 0bsessions 4 years ago

      Dude, what? I would sell my own grandmother to have a guy like Wieters on my roster.

  13. Brett Jackson is like the decent looking girl in Wisconsin.  The locals think she’s hot because they are surrounded by filth in comparison.

    • Lunchbox45 4 years ago

      I lol’d

    • imachainsaw 4 years ago

      you can literally make that joke for every organization’s top prospect.

      • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

        yeah, matt moore only looks awesome because tampa’s farm system has no good pitching in it

        • imachainsaw 4 years ago

          no, every organization is going to highly tout their top prospect because of the fact that they are the top prospect. who’s gonna say otherwise?

          • Lunchbox45 4 years ago

            Ummmm scouts??

            U think a team just names a top organizational prospect and everyone just trusts them??

          • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

            you did not understand the joke you replied to

        • vtadave 4 years ago

          …and Bryce Harper only looks good because the rest of the Nats’ hitting prospects aren’t as good.

        • Lunchbox45 4 years ago

          Truth

    • John Arguello 4 years ago

      Not exactly an objective observation here. He’d look pretty good in Boston too.  It’s not exactly a system teeming with prospects.  When Anthony Ranaudo ranks as your top midseason prospect, that decent looking girl in Wisconsin looks pretty damn good.  BA, a much better source for prospect info than Law, had the Cubs system ranked ahead of Bostons this year.

      • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

        what boston does have is OF prospects stacked like firewood though. kalish, reddick, brentz, lin, hassan, hazelbaker

        jackson would rate a bit more highly than kalish, but he definitely looks much better in the cubs system

        • John Arguello 4 years ago

          If they’re all so great, why make the push for Jackson?  Shouldn’t they pursue a position of greater need?

          It’s not going to happen anyway.  Ricketts has already turned over a prospect list to his baseball people (presumably compiled by Boston) to see which would be acceptable in a trade.  If Jackson is so head and shoulders every other Cubs prospects list, why bother making a list?  Why even give them the opportunity to pick someone else?

          It’s going to wind up being a pretty decent prospect or two, but I don’t expect them to get any of the top tier of Cubs prospects.

          • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

            your first sentence suggests that you didn’t read my comment, so i didn’t read the rest of yours

          • John Arguello 4 years ago

            It’s too bad, you would have realized that the Red Sox have no shot at Jackson. Zero. But my guess is that you did read it and have no response. So it’s a nice cop out.

          • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

            yea, and that’s what you and i were talking about right? guess you don’t read any of the comments you reply to

          • Lunchbox45 4 years ago

            yah, but I think that they are better off trading ellsbury for pitching than going the fa route..

            wait what were we talking about again?

          • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

            THE CUBS ARE THE GREATEST YOU FOOL

          • John Arguello 4 years ago

            And who exactly is saying that?  Try to be a little consistent.  And why bring up Jackson if it’s not about compensation?  That’s what this thread is about, no?  It’s all about Law’s assessment that Jackson is a non-star prospect and is fair compensation.  I’m saying it isn’t.

            You’re all caps statement is the one that’s completely off the track.

          • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

            consistency? i was mocking you for failing to follow along (having to explain this to you is almost too funny)

          • John Arguello 4 years ago

            I’m following the topic of the post and the comment, both of which are about Jackson and whether he is a “decent” prospect and therefore fair compensation.  Follow?

            On the other hand, NOBODY said that “the Cubs are the greatest”…got it now?

          • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

            no, you have to get srser

            brosef up top made a joke about the cubs farm and jackson’s place in it. and den you replied with stuffs about boston’s farm. and den i replied about BOS’s OF depth. and den you pretended i said “they’re all so good” despite my just having said jackson would rate highest

            and den and den and den i called you out for not following along, you replied with a non sequitur about boston never getting jackson, lols about you not following along filled the hall

            welcome aboard. no one here is out to get your favorite team. congrats on epstein, have a laugh

          • chico65 4 years ago

            I love how you said it in a way he would understand.  Seems to have worked.

          • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

            no, you have to get srser

            brosef up top made a joke about the cubs farm and jackson’s place in it. and den you replied with stuffs about boston’s farm. and den i replied about BOS’s OF depth. and den you pretended i said “they’re all so good” despite my just having said jackson would rate highest

            and den and den and den i called you out for not following along, you replied with a non sequitur about boston never getting jackson, lols about you not following along filled the hall

            welcome aboard. no one here is out to get your favorite team. congrats on epstein, have a laugh

          • Lunchbox45 4 years ago

            That’s true but Marcum will have a very short leash in game 6 regardless of the game 5 outcome, it really looks like he’s burnt out.

          • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

            um, not exactly. the astros are moving to the AL

          • John Arguello 4 years ago

            Thanks for reminding me of the maturity level of some of the people who frequently comment on this site.  If you do not see the relevance of discussing Brett Jackson as compensation, than you’re simply not half as bright as you seem to think you are.

          • Lunchbox45 4 years ago

            I didnt realize buzz killington frequented mlbtr.

          • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

            listen you guys, i have a blog ok? it’s on the internet

          • Lunchbox45 4 years ago

             they have the internet on computers now?

          • tapehead4 4 years ago

            Tiny boxes

          • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

            listen you guys, i have a blog ok? it’s on the internet

          • Lunchbox45 4 years ago

            I didnt realize buzz killington frequented mlbtr.

          • GoAwayNow 4 years ago

            “If you do not see the relevance of discussing Brett Jackson as compensation, than you’re simply not half as bright as you seem to think you are.”

            If you aren’t as smarts as me than shuts up.

            fyi the word is then. try to get it right when you call someone dumb.

          • John DiRienzo 4 years ago

            nice try, but the NBA season is indefinitely suspended

          • GoAwayNow 4 years ago

            “If you do not see the relevance of discussing Brett Jackson as compensation, than you’re simply not half as bright as you seem to think you are.”

            If you aren’t as smarts as me than shuts up.

            fyi the word is then. try to get it right when you call someone dumb.

          • John Arguello 4 years ago

            Thanks for reminding me of the maturity level of some of the people who frequently comment on this site.  If you do not see the relevance of discussing Brett Jackson as compensation, than you’re simply not half as bright as you seem to think you are.

        • johnsilver 4 years ago

          “jackson would rate a bit more highly than kalish, but he definitely looks much better in the cubs system”

          Don’t understand this, or just purely from looking at statistics. This guy is not hitting for much even in the PCL. I take it his K rate is expected to drop, his power go up and he plays good defense?

          • John Arguello 4 years ago

            Are you talking about Kalish or Jackson. If it’s Jackson, I’d say 1 HR every 21 PAs., .551 slugging percentage and an ISO of .254 is pretty good power.  How much more do you want him to develop?  Especially for a guy who’s calling card is his all around skill.

          • You clearly don’t understand that offensive numbers are heavily inflated by playing in the PCL.  Jackson’s stats, relative to the rest of the league, aren’t as impressive as they seem.  If you put his stats in context to the top performers in the PCL, his power production isn’t all that special and his batting average would have been lower in a neutral offensive environment.  Jackson has the potential to be a solid everyday player, not a star.

          • You clearly don’t understand that offensive numbers are heavily inflated by playing in the PCL.  Jackson’s stats, relative to the rest of the league, aren’t as impressive as they seem.  If you put his stats in context to the top performers in the PCL, his power production isn’t all that special and his batting average would have been lower in a neutral offensive environment.  Jackson has the potential to be a solid everyday player, not a star.

          • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

            if for no other reason it’s because kalish missed so much time in 2011 and needs to prove he can get back on track after the injury

            speaking of which – has westmoreland faced live pitching yet? think he was supposed to last month

          • johnsilver 4 years ago

            Good question. I keep checking Sox prospects for info, but probably like you, they are keeping his health/progress kind of quiet. he was at the Fort as you know am sure working out.

            Wouldn’t it truly be sweet the Sox get him back, as well as a one in a million miracle pre health issues abilities. Mike Greenwell with Power?

          • MaineSox 4 years ago

            Yes he did, sooner than they anticipated even (middle of August), but I never heard how it went.

      • MaineSox 4 years ago

        How do you figure BA is a better source for prospect info than Law?  Did you just decide that because it makes your point easier to make?  What about BP, where do they rank in there?  Because they don’t agree with BA either.

        • John Arguello 4 years ago

          Much broader spectrum of scouts at their disposal than Law has, or Goldstein for that matter.  In fact, those two seem to mirror each other in a lot of things.

          • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

            have to count out hulet of FG too. that’s 3 sources pushed aside for the one that validates your bias. getting harder and harder to justify it, but keep up the good fight!

          • John Arguello 4 years ago

            That’s pretty funny that Hulet’s your trump card. And the 3 is greater than one argument is ridiculous.

            At any rate, Law doesn’t have the Red Sox much higher than the Cubs anyway.  And he has made it clear that no fan of the Cubs system. 

            Just remember when the deal is all said and done that you won’t have Brett Jackson.

          • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

            you are the only person that is talking about that

          • John Arguello 4 years ago

            Well…just me and the author of this post. Case in point,

            “Law describes Brett Jackson (taken 31st overall by the Cubs in the 2009 amateur draft) as a “non-star prospect” and thinks he would be fair compensation to be sent to the Red Sox as compensation for Epstein.”

          • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

            “everyone in a thread must be talking specifically about one part of the post it’s a part of. this is a rule of life and therefore i don’t need to read the posts i reply to, i’ll just say things”

            for crying out sakes, guy, the dude made a joke. do you always get this bent when people don’t talk about the things you want to talk about?

          • GoAwayNow 4 years ago

            I don’t always talk about things I want to talk about, but when I do I talk about them.

          • GoAwayNow 4 years ago

            I don’t always talk about things I want to talk about, but when I do I talk about them.

          • MaineSox 4 years ago

            Law is a scout, and neither of them personally scout every player that they write up; they rely on scouting connections, and probably a lot of the same ones.

          • MaineSox 4 years ago

            Not to beat a dead horse here, but Jim Callis from BA reiterated (twice) on twitter today Law’s comment that Jackson is a “non-star prospect.”

    • FamousGrouse 4 years ago

      Gonna challenge you on that-Ive seen some fine women in the stands at the Brewers games (but I just watched it on tv).

  14. The sox want B. Jax just to flip him to the tigers with Conor Jackson for Porcello. That way the tiger will have A jax, B jax, and C jax and youkilious will get his old buddy Porcello

  15. Stuartsmith1988 4 years ago

    Pineda Seager and 1 low b scrub for Votto, get it down mariners

    • Bob9988 4 years ago

      The Reds wouldn’t do that, besides, 5yrs of Pineda for 2 of Votto.  No way.

    • nkyredsfan 4 years ago

      Also we really don’t need a 3rd baseman we got Fransisco and Frazier, we need a left fielder, maybe Carp and Pineda for Votto and then you can start talking. Votto already has proved himself as NL MVP. Needs huge offering for Reds to think about moving him, although I think Alonso would be great at 1st base now.

    • nkyredsfan 4 years ago

      Also we really don’t need a 3rd baseman we got Fransisco and Frazier, we need a left fielder, maybe Carp and Pineda for Votto and then you can start talking. Votto already has proved himself as NL MVP. Needs huge offering for Reds to think about moving him, although I think Alonso would be great at 1st base now.

      • Bob9988 4 years ago

        Actually Seager is a 2nd baseman.  He should profile as an above average one at that.  Not that he will be like Brandon Phillips, but above average when compared to most second basemen.  He is blocked in Seattle by Dustin Ackley.  We were so desperate for a 3rd baseman that he was being used there at the end of last year.  He also played a passable shortstop.

      • Bob9988 4 years ago

        Actually Seager is a 2nd baseman.  He should profile as an above average one at that.  Not that he will be like Brandon Phillips, but above average when compared to most second basemen.  He is blocked in Seattle by Dustin Ackley.  We were so desperate for a 3rd baseman that he was being used there at the end of last year.  He also played a passable shortstop.

  16. YanksFanSince78 4 years ago

    SB may not be the end all, but Jackson is not limited to just that. Sort of my point.
    He has power, speed, defense and can draw a walk. He has multiple talents and is playing AAA at a relatively young age. I see him as being more than a “non-star” prospect. Not saying he is w/o flaws but I like what I see.

    In this case we can agree to disagree. Or we can agree that you’re talking out your behind. Whichever works for you. Joking…sort of.

    Good night folks. 

    • MaineSox 4 years ago

      I don’t think people are overlooking the fact that he has power, speed, and defense, it’s just that he only has decent power, decent speed, and decent defense.  20 HRs is good-not great, 20 steals is good-not great, and people are wishy-washy about whether he’ll stick in center or not.  If he does stick in center then yeah, he’ll definitely be above average for his position, but if he ends up in left those numbers start looking more “meh.”

  17. bmoneyy20 4 years ago

    i dont think the hold-up  is about brett jackson or players. i think it is about who theo can bring with him. brett jackson will have the opportunity to be the next jerome walton for the cubs.

  18. YanksFanSince78 4 years ago

    Imagine a mix of Crawford, Jackson, Ellsbury and Reddick patrolling the OF….wow.

    Seriously, I know I’m being repetitive here, but what am I missing.

    2010 @ age 21- 14 tripls, 12 hrs, 30 Sb, 74 walks, .395 OBP and a .868 OPS

    2011 at age 22- 20 hrs, 21 SB, 73 walks, .379 OBP and a .869 OPS at  AA/AAA

    As a freakin’ CF……. Are ppl tripin’ about the strike outs?

    Please look at Grady Sizemore’s minor career numbers.

  19. godzillacub 4 years ago

    2 points away from BJ Upton is considered a “burner” in many many circles. You used two of the fastest players in baseball to say a person who ranks just below them isn’t that fast?

    He is ranked as an average defensive CF with a great first step, which is better than 1/2 of the current starting centerfielders in baseball (based on fielding WAR). I think that means he sticks in center, and definitely doesn’t make him a 4th outfielder (unless you project your 4th outfielder as a 20/20 guy).

  20. Ken Roucka 4 years ago

    If Jackson can bring his minor league slash line to MLB then he is a star center fielder. If he moves that slash line to a corner spot he’d be better than at least 2/3 of the starting corner outfielders in MLB. Can he bring that slash line to MLB? I don’t know. No one knows.

  21. Lunchbox45 4 years ago

    all solid points.. but again, there has been concerns, I simply addressed them, no need to attack me on research just because you don’t like whats been said.

    You need to acknowledge that there is atleast a chance that his 30% k rate and possible defensive restrictions might not result in an everyday job..

    Just like I acknowledge that if he cuts his k rate and sticks in CF he might be a pretty darn good player 

  22. godzillacub 4 years ago

    “If he cuts his k rate and sticks in CF” presumes that K rates matter (which they don’t when you’re getting on base at a .370 clip) and that him sticking in CF is the oddity (which for Jackson isn’t). Could he fail? Yep. Would the majority of baseball scouts and commentators not named Keith Law bet on him to fail? Nope.

    I do apologize for my crassness with the research comment, just tired of uninformed professional baseball people tossing out names they have no idea about (e.g. Gammons thinking Jackson hit right-handed and played RF; Heyman being utterly wrong throughout; Keith Law’s terrible anti-Cub bias; etc.)

  23. godzillacub 4 years ago

    “If he cuts his k rate and sticks in CF” presumes that K rates matter (which they don’t when you’re getting on base at a .370 clip) and that him sticking in CF is the oddity (which for Jackson isn’t). Could he fail? Yep. Would the majority of baseball scouts and commentators not named Keith Law bet on him to fail? Nope.

    I do apologize for my crassness with the research comment, just tired of uninformed professional baseball people tossing out names they have no idea about (e.g. Gammons thinking Jackson hit right-handed and played RF; Heyman being utterly wrong throughout; Keith Law’s terrible anti-Cub bias; etc.)

  24. Getting on base at a .370 clip in the minors doesn’t necessarily equate to getting on base at a .370 clip in the majors.  That high K rate of his is indicative of flaws in his approach, plate discipline, pitch recognition (and potentially his swing as well) all that will likely be exploited by better pitching resulting in an even lower OBP.

  25. Getting on base at a .370 clip in the minors doesn’t necessarily equate to getting on base at a .370 clip in the majors.  That high K rate of his is indicative of flaws in his approach, plate discipline, pitch recognition (and potentially his swing as well) all that will likely be exploited by better pitching resulting in an even lower OBP.

  26. Lunchbox45 4 years ago

    of course k rates matter…

    Its not the k rate itself, but his skill set in controlling the zone, and swinging at good pitches.. Once the pitchers get better that k rate could be the death of him (a la alexi rios)

    on top of that his BABip is close to .375 in the minors, which isn’t completely out of wack for a fast kid, playing in not so great conditions against not so great defenders.. but that will all change as well once he gets up to the bigs.

  27. Lunchbox45 4 years ago

    of course k rates matter…

    Its not the k rate itself, but his skill set in controlling the zone, and swinging at good pitches.. Once the pitchers get better that k rate could be the death of him (a la alexi rios)

    on top of that his BABip is close to .375 in the minors, which isn’t completely out of wack for a fast kid, playing in not so great conditions against not so great defenders.. but that will all change as well once he gets up to the bigs.

  28. MaineSox 4 years ago

    Law isn’t the only one questioning his ability to stick in CF (in fact, is Law questioning it because I couldn’t find his opinion on it anywhere?)

  29. 0bsessions 4 years ago

    “”If he cuts his k rate and sticks in CF” presumes that K rates matter (which they don’t when you’re getting on base at a .370 clip)”

    As has been noted, K rates absolutely matter for two big reasons:

    A strikeout is the base definition of an unproductive out, especially in the NL where the small ball approach is so highly valued. If you’ve got a man on third and one out, which do you want at the plate: a guy with a .370 career OBP and a 30% K rate or a guy with a .315 OBP, but a 10% K rate? A walk’s great and all and I do think that, overall, OBP is one of the most valuable stats out there, but if the guy is odds on to either walk or strikeout he’s not going to be pushing that runner across.

    Secondly, as people have touched on, you can coast by in the minors with a high K rate. Pitchers are either still developing or are stuck there because they’re not major league quality pitchers. Once you hit the majors, a high K rate is going to get exploited and it’s impossible to keep an OBP up that high when pitchers start getting tape on you and know where to exploit your K tendencies. He has to learn to make adjustments and get that K rate to a manageable level if he wants to be an MLB hitter.

  30. godzillacub 4 years ago

    He isn’t. No one is. He’s not going to win a gold glove, but he’ll give average to above average defense in center. No one is questioning this.

  31. MaineSox 4 years ago

    Yes. Yes they are.

    BA has been pretty much “meh” on him as a center fielder saying he can
    “get the job done,” but that he’s “not a pure center fielder,” and Marc
    Hulet said “Defensively, he can handle center field but may end up in
    left field. He’s still improving his reads and routes, and his arm
    strength is just average”

    Neither of them have said that he wont stick in CF, but both are pretty non committal.

  32. Lunchbox45 4 years ago

     those don’t count because they contradict his opinion.

  33. John Arguello 4 years ago

    The K rate is the biggest concern for me.

  34. John Arguello 4 years ago

    The K rate is the biggest concern for me.

  35. godzillacub 4 years ago

    In that situation, you take the person who is less likely to get out . . . every single time.

  36. 0bsessions 4 years ago

    Bottom of the twelfth, runner on third, one out. Who do you want at the plate: Jack Cust circa 2008 (.375 OBP, but a K rate north of 32%) or Carl Crawford circa 2008 (Only a .319 OBP, but a K rate of only 12%).

    While I wouldn’t say I agree with “every single time,” I did say I consider OBP one of the most valuable stats out there. That said, a 30+ K% is awful and is readily exploited by most MLB pitchers. Cust is actually a pretty good comparable. Entirely average defender, ghastly K rate, extremely high OBP, high power potential. On his career, never been an All Star, would start on a lot of teams, but probably a bench player on the upper echelon because of that awful K rate and defensive shortcomings.

    I’m not saying the potential isn’t there for Jackson, but unless he gets that K rate down he’s going to have to be elite defender at center fielder, not just potentially adequate, to be an MLB starter. He needs to do both to ever be an All Star.

  37. 0bsessions 4 years ago

    Oh, hey, here’s another one:

    Trayvon Robinson. High OBP, lots of strikeouts, 20/20 potential (More likely a 15/30 guy), capable of playing center field, though projects better as a corner option defensively. Red Sox landed him in exchange for a trio of retreads that were effectively Rule 5 fodder.

    So, tell me, who would you consider more valuable? Epstein or the combination of Federowicz, Fife and Juan Rodriguez Robinson was traded for?

  38. Carlos Pena… 162 PAs with RISP this year. Walked 40 times, K’d 39 times. Managed a .175 BA with a .377 OBP… As the team’s secondary focus for run production (i.e RBI) at the time of his signing, he drove in a whopping 45 Runs in these situations. For a team that was already struggling with RISP (and has since Rudy was brought in as hitting instructor) this doomed the team’s offense.

    So, not only do you want a guy that will get on base and not create an out… you want a guy that will actually step up and get the job done. What’s the job? Driving in the run.

    This said, Jackson’s young and there’s hope for him improving. However, his 1K/4.19 PA rate could easily translate into close to 175 K’s in the majors. That’s basically a bit over 1 K per game. (In fact, he has struck out 320 times in just 296 minor league games).

  39. godzillacub 4 years ago

    I take the .375 OBP for an entire season than a .319 with a lower K rate that is only specifically valuable in the rare situation you crafted. Every time. And I win more games. You may win THAT game, but I win many many more.

    Just because a sacrifice bunt nets a run, the odds are still stupid to bunt.

  40. godzillacub 4 years ago

    The job is not making an out first and foremost (you even say this). Anything above that is gravy, baby.

    I take the 444 (odd that it’s even like that) plate appearances when there isn’t a runner in scoring position with the more valuable player than I do for the statistically less probably situation where a flyball out/ground ball out is worth more than a strikeout.

  41. Not when the team is relying on you to drive in runs. Pena failed this season (as he has throughout his career) to pick up hits when they mattered. His OBP has rarely turned into additional runs. Roughly half of his Runs and RBI over the past 4 years have come from his own HR.

    Now, don’t get me wrong. I’m a huge supporter of Jackson. I think he should be the Cubs’ starting CF next year, but perhaps around June rather than April. I just hope he doesn’t turn out to be a high K-machine like Pena, who can’t come through when needed.

  42. wait_HOWmanyrings 4 years ago

    good point… except that the dodgers got SCREWED in that deal

  43. 0bsessions 4 years ago

    And how. I still don’t get that one. Still sets a precedent.

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