Brewers To Explore Extensions For Greinke, Marcum

The Brewers expect to discuss potential extensions with starters Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum this winter, tweets Danny Knobler of CBS Sports. In a second tweet, Knobler adds that the Brew Crew could also explore a long-term deal for closer John Axford, among others.

Greinke and Marcum, both acquired by the Brewers in trades last offseason, will be eligible for free agency a year from now. Greinke is entering the final season of a four-year, $38MM contract, while Marcum is eligible for arbitration for the last time this winter. Axford, meanwhile, is still a year away from being arbitration-eligible.

If no extensions are worked out before the 2012 campaign begins, Greinke will earn $13.5MM, while MLBTR projects Marcum to earn approximately $6.8MM.


82 Responses to Brewers To Explore Extensions For Greinke, Marcum Leave a Reply

  1. Scooter8080 4 years ago

    If the Brewers want to keep Greinke, now is the time.  If he hits free agency he’s as good as gone imo.

    • coolstorybro222 4 years ago

      Yeah the phillies are going to jump on him so fast, Bob Ucker won’t even have time to think of a funny quip.

      • jwsox 4 years ago

        With utley, Howard, hamels, lee, victorino, and a probable halladay resigning doubt they could afford him.

        • Colin Christopher 4 years ago

          Halladay is signed through 2013 with a 2014 option. Why would they need to re-sign him before signing Greinke after 2012?

        • Encarnacion's Parrot 4 years ago

          They could just replace Halladay, indirectly, with Greinke. Halladay will probably be done as a Philly after the 2014 vesting year, since he’d be 37 by then.

          • Lunchbox45 4 years ago

            back to the jays!

          • slider32 4 years ago

            What a mistake that was letting the best pitcher in baseball go in his prime. Instead of building with pitching around him they were so bad that he had to say goodbye.

          • Lunchbox45 4 years ago

            we had our shot to win with him, we had a GM who was incapable of acquiring prime talent that was still in its prime. it happens

        • YanksFanSince78 4 years ago

          Don’t follow your logic. Howard (2017 option), Lee (2016 option) and Halladay (2014 option) are signed for a while and when Halladay’s and Lee’s deals expire they will both be well into their late 30’s. 

          There is legit concern about how far they are willing to push the payroll though, assuming they bring back Rollins and want to retain Hamels, Victorino and Utley once there deals end in the next year or two.

  2. jwsox 4 years ago

    Greinke is looking at minimum 6 years 120mill would be my jumping off point and I think he proved he earned it. Marcum I wouldn’t go over 3/45.

    • coolstorybro222 4 years ago

      even with his struggles in the playoffs?

      • jwsox 4 years ago

        Greinke or marcum? Assuming greinke his agent can say this. ” he is young proven in both the nl and al, a cy young winner and he was one of the best home pitchers in the game last year” he could easily get 20 per. Marcum is iffy which is why I was saying 3/45 max.

        • ARodinyourPujols 4 years ago

          Pitchers to get 20+ million a year: Sabathia, Lee, Santana, Halladay. I don’t think I would put Greinke in that class. He would be in tough to get 20 a year and to say he could easily get it is way overblown. I would put him on the same type of contract Weaver just signed at 17 million a year.

          • jwsox 4 years ago

            It’s only a 7 mill raise. Not to crazy to think.

          • ARodinyourPujols 4 years ago

            It is crazy you look at comparable and that no one in their right mind would put him in the same company as those 4 guys. 

          • jwsox 4 years ago

            I’m not saying he is but a 7 mil raise for a guy as young as he is with his recent successful track record it’s not absurd to think some team
            Would offer him that.

        • Colin Christopher 4 years ago

          What makes Marcum “iffy,” in your opinion? He hasn’t had an ERA above 3.64 or a WHIP above 1.16 since 2007, and his record from 2007-11 is 47-28. The only season he’s ever been less than efective was his 78-inning rookie season in 2006. That’s “iffy?”

          • daveineg 4 years ago

            Colin, you must have missed the playoffs last year.  As for the the regular season, Marcum’s numbers look fine, but the Brewers had a losing record in his starts, and now they won’t have Fielder.

    • daveineg 4 years ago

      Seriously?  Greinke had one career year and that was 2009.  He got terrific run support last year but his ERA was nearly 4.  It will take the Brewers a decade to get over making that mistake.

  3. AmericanMovieFan 4 years ago

    I’m guessing they’re gonna offer Greinke 5 years/$90 million and he’ll be looking for 7 years/$161 million or so.

    I think a meeting in the middle of those, something like 6 years/$135MM should get it done.

  4. Ray Darr 4 years ago

    Marcum looks more like a candidate to be the next Jeff Suppan, rather than a contract extention.  The Brewers have a lot of SPs coming up in the minors.  They already have Gallardo and Narveson long term.  I can see them trying to extend Greinke, but not Marcum.  Especially after his September and October collapse.  I think that the marcum for Lawrie trade will end up as one the worst in Brewer history.
    I don’t Greinke getting anywhere close to what Jered Weaver got from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  He’s kind of a head case, and I think they would chew him up and spit him out in cities like NY, Boston, or Philly.

    • I don’t know how you could call it one of the worst trades in Brewers history.  Yeah, he sucked the last month of the season, but if it weren’t for how good he was the rest of the year, the Brewers don’t have home field in the playoffs and don’t win the first round series, and maybe even don’t make the playoffs.  Up until he hit the wall he was consistently pitching extremely well.

      • daveineg 4 years ago

        The Brewers were 16-17 in the games Marcum started.  They got to the playoffs because they had two superstars who had MVP caliber seasons, and the best bullpen in baseball after the All Star game.

        The rotation was slightly better than average.  Greinke was nowhere near the guy he was for the Royals in 2009.  Marcum’s meltdown started at Labor Day. 

        Greinke’s worth no more than $52-$56 million over 4 years.  Some of the numbers thrown out here would cripple the franchise for a decade.  They should just let Marcum walk after this year.  They’ve invested high picks in starters in recent seasons. 

        • vtadave 4 years ago

          So Greinke is worth $13-$14 million a year while C.J. Wilson is probably looking at $17 milion or more and CC Sabathia gets $25 million?

          Think that’s a bit low.  2009 is going to be his career year, but he’s still only 28 and has been worht 9.0 WAR over the past two years.

          I think if he hits the open market, Greinke is looking at 6/120.

    • CyYoungSuppan 4 years ago

      No offense, but this post reminds me a lot of what someone on ESPN would say.  As noted, Marcum was as solid as they come for most of the season.  I think he just ran out of gas at the end.  Worst trade in history?  That is a huge stretch imo.  If Marcum produces like he did last year for the rest of his duration in Mil, I will be ok with it.  As for the Zack comments, what you said is literally what the media has driven to into everyone’s heads for years.  Yes, he has had issues, but he has recovered quite well and has a bright future with the Brewers.  Who cares what the big cities would do to him, because us Milwaukee fans are glad to have him.

      • bobskube 4 years ago

        I think it’s possible, just possible, that we’re getting ahead of ourselves a little with Lawrie.  Yes, he was very impressive in a 1/2 season.  But don’t forget that he has a massive attitude, is a minus defender at 21, and any number of things could happen between now and whenever.  Marcum was a big part of the team making the playoffs.  Yes, he sucked in October, but they’re not there without him.

        I think I’ll reserve judgement for a while.  I think both teams are happy with the trade right now.  The Brewers have already gotten something tangible out of it.  I honestly hope the Jays do too.

        • daveineg 4 years ago

          Nice spin job bob.  Brewers got hosed on that deal.  They figured Lawrie was expendable because they had McGehee (whoops).  They were in an all in mode and Marcum certainly contributed in the regular season.  Who knows what they’ll get from him this year, with less offense and coming off one of the worst postseasons a pitcher could have. 

          It might not be Broglio for Brock bad, but it wasn’t good long term.

          • bobskube 4 years ago

            What else you got in your crystal ball?

            Brewers don’t make the playoffs last year without it.  Is that worth sacrificing a little future?  It is to me.

        • bjfan 4 years ago

          As a Jays fan, I have to ask where this “massive attitude” is.  The only thing Jays fans saw was a guy who gave his all on defense, was always trying to get an extra base, and turned the dugout into a great place for his teammates to be.  You shouldn’t always believe the “stuff” fed to you by management. 

          Both teams got what they wanted, so that makes it a good trade for both.

          • Edward beer hands comes to mind – a young prospect with a penchant for public intoxication and not enough sense to avoid posting photos of his exploits to the internet qualifies as a make up concern.

          • bjfan 4 years ago

            Let me see.  The kid was 19  when these pix were taken.  They were posted by a “friend”.  He manned up and apologized and said this would NEVER happen again.  Either you have never been a kid, or you are still in Jr. High.

            This guy is going to be a star, and even the Milwaukee brass have admitted so.  Why does everything have to be negative these days.  The brewers got a pitcher that helped them get to the playoffs, when they were going all in.  They got exactly what they wanted.  If you are a fan, you should be happy.  But as far as Lawrie is concerned, you haven’t a clue.

        • vtadave 4 years ago

          Bob – Lawrie was actually a very good defender at 3B last year. You obviously didn’t watch too many Blue Jays’ games.  “Massive attitude”? Based on…?

          All he did in addition to the glove, was destroy AAA pitching at age 21 and then put up a .953 OPS in 171 at-bats for Toronto.

          All this and he’s under team control through 2017.

        • notsureifsrs 4 years ago

          lawrie’s stock has shot through the roof since the trade, which skews the perspectives here a bit. at the time of the trade, he was a fringe top 50 prospect with questionable defense who had a good but unspectacular season in AA

          after the trade, he hit 353/415/661 in AAA and made huge strides in defense at third before pummeling the ball in the show as well

          hindsight’s 20/20. he looks like the much better player now, but he didn’t at the time. despite the playoffs, marcum had a very good year and will probably have another good one in 2012

          anthopolous actually turned down the trade the first time it was offered by milwaukee, but called back and accepted a few days later. that tells you it wasn’t a steal at the time

        • Sniderlover 4 years ago

          Wrong, his defense was completely oustanding at 3rd, albeit in a small sample size. John Stickels also gave a good scouting report on him and his defense suggesting he could be a Braun type bat that could stick at 3rd.

          As for his attitude, I haven’t seen anything but intense and energetic. He could come across as cocky as he said “he was done playing in the minors” before the season started because he considered himself ready but you can also look at that as confident which he really is. The teammates love him, he is already best friends with Romero and JPA. And I’ve read he has a great work ethic.

          I think the attitude things comes from perception, some people may not like it and Lawrie is one of those guys that doesn’t care if you do or don’t but the fans, teammates and the management love him here.

          Brewer fans should be happy with Marcum and they made the playoffs so its a win-win IMO.

  5. I’ve been preaching this for months!! Extend ZACK GRIENKE!!!! With Gallardo & Grienke under contract we’ll be able to compete with the big boys for most of Braun’s contract. I love that Wisconsin teams are so good right now! GO BREWERS!!!

    • Y’all are going to have to find a way to replace Fielder’s production though. A team doesn’t lose that big of a producer in their line-up and be fine without solving the problem somehow.

      • braun weeks hart… still a killer 3 4 5… need a a guy to hit first… not even a reyes, maybe a furcal and lock up greinke…. would be just fine in my book as a crew fan

      • AisoRed 4 years ago

        Giants made it all the way in 2010 with a dismal lineup, I think the Brewers still have a chance.

        • daveineg 4 years ago

          Giants had 4 better pitchers than Greinke that year.

    • daveineg 4 years ago

      Just the opposite Colin.  Trusting Greinke to be the guy he was once in his career and throwing a ridiculous amount at him will cripple the franchise.  He’s not a dominant pitcher.  He’s just not.  Gallardo is the ace of that staff and it’s not close.

      They aren’t winning anything this year.  They would be much better off in the long run trading Greinke either now or at the deadline in July.

      • That’s what everyone said before last season! When the Brewers were supposed to finish behind The Reds and the Cardinals. Grienke is 27 fields his position, can hit, and has absolute filthy stuff! A prime candidate for a Contract extension. Any real baseball fan doesn’t look at a 96 win season and a guy who wins 15 games with a 3.93 ERA with over 200 Stikeouts in less than 200 innings with less than 40 walks a bad season! That’s a TOP OF THE LINE STARTER that wants to be here! What are you talking about!!!!! Dave in Negative frame of mind! At least have a real argument….lol

        • SunsetStripper 4 years ago

          I’m all for extending Greinke if the price is right, but I kind of agree with daveineg.  He’s not the ace they thought they were going to get.  There is no way the Brewers can give him something in the neighborhood of 6/120.  If they can get him for 5/85 or 6/100 I would be all for it.

          As for Marcum, I would offer something in the range of 4/37.  He’ll probably get $7 million in arbitration this year, and then give him 10 per for the next 3 years.

  6. brewerfanx1 4 years ago

    Marcum’s problem if you know how to analyze pitching data is he was throwing his change-up a few miles per hour harder than he usually throws it 81 mph.  His cutter was also 3-4 mph faster than he was throwing it earlier in the season. Hitters took advantage obviously. I’m sure Marcum and the Brewers pitching coach are aware of this and will work on it in ST.

    • daveineg 4 years ago

      brewerfanx1,

      Be careful not to fool yourself into thinking Marcum’s problems are that easily fixable. The fact is his stuff isn’t very good and he needs pinpoint command to get away with it against good hitters.  It’s the same issues that Suppan had.  That’s why you don’t sign these guys to long term deals.  Command can go at any time.

      • brewerfanx1 4 years ago

        They are that fixable.  Marcum mixes his pitches more than any other pitcher in Baseball and has the best change-up in the Majors.  One thing is for certain: Shaun Marcum is no Jeff Suppan. Just because
        they both throw slow does not mean that they even deserve any comparison
        whatsoever: Marcum is a true junkballer — he is a change-up first
        pitcher, and he runs his entire arsenal around his change. Suppan was
        completely different: he was a moving fastball specialist that did not
        really have any other significant approach other than throwing as many
        different pitches as possible (he was one of those guys who threw three
        or four fastballs and a sinker, as well as his slider, change, and
        curve). That’s completely different than Marcum, and it shows: Marcum
        actually builds around an approach that yields strikeouts, whereas
        Suppan never could approach the game that way. Look through Suppan’s
        seasons for any year that he got close to 150 or 160 strikeouts. Never
        happened — he once struck out 120 batters in nearly 220 innings; Marcum
        can pick up 158 K in 200 IP.

        • daveineg 4 years ago

          Outs are outs.  I don’t care how you get them.  There is one difference though. Suppan actually has had success in the postseason.

          • brewerfanx1 4 years ago

            There are many more differences than you are willing to admit.  Marcum and Suppan are completely different pitchers.  btw.. I just love how fans are quick to focus on Marcum’s post season performance and forget what he actually did during the regular season to really help the Brewers get to the playoffs.  Wins and losses are not a good way to judge a pitchers performance.  Marcum was the Brewers best pitcher last season. 

  7. steveyea 4 years ago

    Zack should wait to see what the Brewers look like before he ties himself up for his next contract, whether their success would be sustainable for the ensuing 5-7 years.  He we very comfortable in KC, his only issue at the time was that they were not ready to compete, but they will be in 2013 with a great young team without any/many holes, a great young offense, defense, and bullpen, and many other starting pitcher questions answered by then, so perhaps needing only an ace.  

  8. The_Porcupine 4 years ago

    I’ve always thought that a good solid rotation makes a team a contender regardless of the offensive production.  I say take the Fielder money and use it to extend both Marcum and Geinke.  By the time any pitching prospects are ready to take on a spot in the rotation, Wolf’s contract will be up.  Keep the core of your pitching staff locked up (Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum, Narveson, Axford). 

    The Brewers have enough offense with Braun, Weeks, and Hart, that signing/trading for a few complimentary players will be enough.  I wonder what the infield defense would be if Carlos Pena is manning 1b and picking up all the errant throws?  I also wonder if the Brewers have the prospects to trade to the Padres for Headley to play 3b?  Sign Furcal or Santiago for shortstop and I think you have a respectable lineup.

    • Personally.. i rather not go for Pena. I would like if they just move McGehee to 1b and possibly bring up M.Gamel to play 3b.

      • bobskube 4 years ago

        Oy ve.  That is the incorrect solution.

      • AisoRed 4 years ago

        Might as well keep McGehee at 3rd base and put Gamel at first.

        • bobskube 4 years ago

          If you’re going to rely on those 2, that’d be the way to do it.  I really hope Casey McGehee isn’t on my tv much next year.  He is not good.

          Gamel at first seems likely to happen.  Green/Hairston at 3rd would be fine with me.  I’d give Jerry some starts against some righties too, making it a 50/50 split roughly.  Hairston can find another 20 starts elseshwere.

          That leaves McGehee a starting job in Nashville. Or wherever.  Just go away.

  9. Greinke.. 5yr 82.5 mill & S.Marcum 4yr 40mill: Lock up your top starters; 26.5 for both starters the next 4 yrs!

    • daveineg 4 years ago

      This is Milwaukee, not New York.  The Brewers have their top starter locked up.  His name is Gallardo.  Marcum isn’t a top starter or even close.  Greinke was for one season and there is no guaranty he ever will be again.  Those guys are not good enough to overcome the loss of Fielder in the lineup.  It was only the 5th or 6th best rotation in the NL last year.  It’s not going to get better.

      • bobskube 4 years ago

        You’re failing to take into account how they’d be if the guys behind them could get to and catch the ball.  Hopefully that will change this year.

        Barmes/Furcal and a decent First and third basemen will make a huge difference.

        • daveineg 4 years ago

          Betancourt was his SS for half his starts in his Cy Young year.  That argument doesn’t hold water.  He’s not a groundball pitcher.

        • ^ THIS

  10. Greinke is good but the year he had was not good wins where fine but come on the run support saved him strike out where high but he got rock most of the time he wants 20 mil a year he better stay of the b ball court and find his great fastball when it counts the 3.83 era is not 20 mil a year.

  11. daveineg 4 years ago

    Want more evidence the true ace of the Brewer staff is Gallardo?

    Against teams with a winning record, Gallardo was 6-6 with a 3.44 ERA.  Greinke was 4-4 with a 4.21 ERA.  Marcum was 4-4 with a 4.15 ERA.

    Against teams with losing record, Marcum’s ERA was a full run lower at 3.08 and he was 9-3.  Greinke’s ERA was a half run better at 3.68 and he was 12-2.  Gallardo’s ERA was about the same at 3.57.

    Amazingly, Narveson was the best Brewer pitcher against winning teams with an ERA of 2.91 vs. a 5.07 ERA against losing teams.

    Marcum and Greinke feasted on the weak NL teams.

    • bobskube 4 years ago

      So………Narveson is the ace then?  Using your really weird choice of stats?

    • brewerfanx1 4 years ago

      You can try and marginalize their performances, but Marcum was still the Brewers best pitcher last season. 

    • SunsetStripper 4 years ago

      “Marcum and Greinke feasted on the weak NL teams.”

      Isn’t that what they are supposed to do?

  12. slider32 4 years ago

    The Brewers are doing what all the up in coming teams are doing, they are holding on to their good young pitchers. Teams are seeing organizations like the Angels and Rays building their team around pitching, thats how you get to be the manager of the year!

  13. johnsilver 4 years ago

    You mean a Lackey/Burnett type deal?

    His agent would laugh at you.

    Not saying he will get Sabathia $$, but he probably will settle in the 17-20m range and 5-7 years.

  14. start_wearing_purple
    start_wearing_purple 4 years ago

    Greinke has had 1 great year and the rest have been average. No way should he get $17M-$20M a year.

  15. bobskube 4 years ago

    5/$85=your range.

    Just sayin’

  16. Lunchbox45 4 years ago

    grienke has had 1 insane year and the rest have mostly been really good, not average 

  17. InLeylandWeTrust 4 years ago

    ’08: 202 IP, 3.56 FIP, 3.71 xFIP, 3.93 SIERA

    ’09: 229 IP, 2.33 FIP, 3.09 xFIP, 3.04 SIERA

    ’10: 220 IP, 3.34 FIP, 3.60 xFIP, 3.67 SIERA

    ’11: 172 IP, 2.98 FIP, 2.56 XFIP, 2.66 SIERA

    Greinke=Good

  18. vtadave 4 years ago

    A 5.1 WAR is “average”?

  19. Casor_Greener 4 years ago

    A lot of people think xFIP is BS too

  20. daveineg 4 years ago

    Greinke gets a lot of his outs via strikeouts and flyballs.  Marginal improvement in the infield defense won’t significantly help him.  Betancourt was the SS for half his CY Young year and that didn’t seem to affect him. 

    His problem is he gives up a ton of extra base hits.  Opponents slugged .412 off him last year.  That was worse than the .409 slugging off of Chris Narveson.  In 2009, they slugged .338 of Greinke.  He never approached that before or since.  The career slugging percentage off him is .411.  Pitchers that are worth $15 million per year and up don’t allow teams to slug over .400 against them.  The highest slugging percentage against Sabathia in the last 5 season was .361.  Cliff Lee allowed just a SP of .339.

  21. daveineg 4 years ago

    Slugging percentage against vs. Greinke:

    2007:  .427                AL League average:   .423

    2008:  .406                AL League average:   .420

    2009:  .336                AL League average:   .428

    2010:  .388                AL League average:   .407

    2011:  .412                NL League average:   .391

    His one great year, 2009 stands out like a sore thumb.  Every other year, he’s been a little better or a little worse than league average.  LAst year his SP against was worse than the Brewers #5 starter.

    Bottom line is, which year was the outlier?  Throw out 2009, and he’s an average pitcher with a high K rate.  That’s not worth more than $13-14 million per year in my book.

  22. notsureifsrs 4 years ago

    “ah, but if you ignore all of the advanced statistics and pay attention only to this completely primitive one, you’ll see he doesn’t look quite so good!”

  23. notsureifsrs 4 years ago

    his batting average against on groundballs last year was 21% higher than the rest of the league. on flyballs, it was 61% higher

    in 2009, those figures were 6% higher and 31% lower

    but that’s definitely all on greinke

  24. bobskube 4 years ago

    xfip may not be the be-all end-all, but it beats the heck out of ERA.  As a Brewer fan, it is painfully obvious why ERA is a horrible stat.  Watch Betancourt and McGehee on the left side of the infield.  Yeah, they don’t make a lot of errors.  Because they’re statues.

  25. bobskube 4 years ago

    This is pissing in the wind.  He has no clue.

  26. Sniderlover 4 years ago

    “He will never be an average fielder”

    Have you even see him play? At 2nd base, yeah that would be the case but at 3rd base, he was outstanding. He’s got fantastic range with a strong arm.

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