Projected Arbitration Salaries

As explained in these three posts, Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model for MLBTR to project arbitration salaries.  By my count there are 196 remaining arbitration eligible players.   Click here to download an Excel spreadsheet with our projected salaries, or click below to see everything.

Angels (6)

  • Howie Kendrick – $5.2MM
  • Erick Aybar – $4.7MM
  • Alberto Callaspo – $3.1MM
  • Kendrys Morales – $2.8MM
  • Jeff Mathis – $1.8MM
  • Jerome Williams – $1.3MM

Astros (2)

  • J.A. Happ – $2.3MM
  • Humberto Quintero – $1.2MM

Athletics (10)

  • Gio Gonzalez – $4.2MM
  • Andrew Bailey – $3.5MM
  • Dallas Braden – $3.3MM
  • Brandon McCarthy – $3.3MM
  • Craig Breslow – $1.8MM
  • Ryan Sweeney – $1.6MM
  • Daric Barton – $1.5MM
  • Joey Devine – $900K
  • Landon Powell – $700K
  • Adam Rosales – $600K

Blue Jays (7)

  • Brandon Morrow – $4.2MM
  • Colby Rasmus – $2.3MM
  • Carlos Villanueva – $1.9MM
  • Casey Janssen – $1.6MM
  • Jesse Litsch – $1.3MM
  • Dustin McGowan – $700K
  • Jesse Carlson – $700K

Braves (5)

  • Michael Bourn – $7.3MM
  • Jair Jurrjens – $5.1MM
  • Martin Prado – $4.4MM
  • Eric O'Flaherty – $2.6MM
  • Peter Moylan – $2MM

Brewers (7)

  • Shaun Marcum  - $6.8MM
  • Casey McGehee – $3.1MM
  • Kameron Loe – $2.8MM
  • Nyjer Morgan – $1.9MM
  • Carlos Gomez – $1.8MM
  • Manny Parra – $1.2MM
  • George Kottaras – $800K

Cardinals (4)

  • Ryan Theriot – $3.9MM
  • Skip Schumaker – $3.1MM
  • Kyle McClellan – $2.7MM
  • Jason Motte – $1.7MM

Cubs (6)

  • Matt Garza – $8.7MM
  • Geovany Soto – $4MM
  • Randy Wells – $2.2MM
  • Jeff Baker – $1.4MM
  • Blake DeWitt – $1.2MM
  • Koyie Hill – $900K

Diamondbacks (5)

  • Joe Saunders – $8.7MM
  • Miguel Montero – $5.3MM
  • Brad Ziegler – $1.8MM
  • Ryan Roberts – $1.7MM
  • Micah Owings – $1.3MM

Dodgers (6)

  • Matt Kemp – $16.3MM
  • Andre Ethier – $10.7MM
  • Clayton Kershaw – $8.4MM
  • James Loney – $6.5MM
  • Hong-Chih Kuo – $2.5MM
  • Tony Gwynn Jr. – $1.1MM

Giants (13)

  • Tim Lincecum – $19.2MM
  • Jonathan Sanchez – $5.2MM
  • Pablo Sandoval – $3.2MM
  • Jeff Keppinger – $2.7MM
  • Andres Torres – $2.5MM
  • Ryan Vogelsong – $2.5MM
  • Ramon Ramirez – $2.3MM
  • Santiago Casilla – $1.9MM
  • Sergio Romo – $1.3MM
  • Mike Fontenot – $1.3MM
  • Nate Schierholtz – $1.2MM
  • Eli Whiteside – $700K
  • Emmanuel Burriss – $600K

Indians (7)

  • Asdrubal Cabrera – $4.8MM
  • Shin-Soo Choo – $4.3MM
  • Chris Perez – $4.2MM
  • Justin Masterson – $3.6MM
  • Rafael Perez – $1.9MM
  • Joe Smith – $1.6MM
  • Jack Hannahan – $1.3MM

Mariners (4)

  • Jason Vargas – $4.8MM
  • Brandon League – $4.2MM
  • Shawn Kelley – $700K
  • Luis Rodriguez – $700K

Marlins (9)

  • Anibal Sanchez – $6MM
  • Juan Carlos Oviedo – $5.8MM
  • Chris Volstad – $2.6MM
  • Emilio Bonifacio -$2.1MM
  • Clay Hensley – $1.8MM
  • Edward Mujica – $1.6MM
  • Burke Badenhop – $1.1MM
  • John Baker – $800K
  • Donnie Murphy – $700K

Mets (5)

  • Mike Pelfrey – $5.8MM
  • Angel Pagan – $4.7MM
  • Ronny Paulino – $1.6MM
  • Taylor Buchholz – $1.2MM
  • Manny Acosta – $1.1MM

Nationals (7)

  • John Lannan – $4.9MM
  • Michael Morse – $3.9MM
  • Tom Gorzelanny – $2.8MM
  • Jordan Zimmermann – $1.8MM
  • Tyler Clippard – $1.7MM
  • Doug Slaten -$900K
  • Jesus Flores – $800K

Orioles (7)

  • Jeremy Guthrie – $8.3MM
  • Luke Scott – $6MM
  • Adam Jones – $5.8MM
  • Jim Johnson – $2.5MM
  • Jo-Jo Reyes – $1.5MM
  • Brad Bergesen - $1.4MM  
  • Robert Andino – $1.2MM

Padres (11)

  • Chase Headley – $3MM
  • Tim Stauffer – $3MM
  • Clayton Richard – $2MM
  • Will Venable – $1.8MM
  • Dustin Moseley – $1.8MM
  • Nick Hundley – $1.6MM
  • Luke Gregerson – $1.3MM
  • Chris Denorfia – $1.2MM
  • Joe Thatcher – $800K
  • Alberto Gonzalez – $800K
  • Jeremy Hermida – $500K

Phillies (5)

  • Cole Hamels – $14MM
  • Hunter Pence – $11.1MM
  • Kyle Kendrick – $3.2MM
  • Ben Francisco – $1.5MM
  • Wilson Valdez – $900K

Pirates (9)

  • Joel Hanrahan – $4MM
  • Jeff Karstens – $2.8MM
  • Garrett Jones – $2.4MM
  • Ross Ohlendorf – $2.1MM
  • Charlie Morton – $2.1MM
  • Jose Veras – $2.5MM
  • Chris Resop – $1.1MM
  • Evan Meek- $900K
  • Jason Grilli – $800K

Rangers (9)

  • Mike Napoli – $9.2MM
  • Nelson Cruz – $5.7MM
  • Mike Adams – $4.5MM
  • David Murphy – $3.2MM
  • Elvis Andrus – $2.9MM
  • Matt Harrison – $2.9MM
  • Mark Lowe – $1.6MM
  • Darren O'Day – $1.3MM
  • Andres Blanco – $500K

Rays (6)

  • David Price – $7.8MM
  • B.J. Upton – $7.6MM
  • Jeff Niemann -$3.1MM
  • Joel Peralta – $2MM
  • J.P. Howell – $1.4MM
  • Andy Sonnanstine -$1.1MM

Red Sox (10)

  • Jacoby Ellsbury – $7.9MM
  • Alfredo Aceves -$1.7MM
  • Andrew Miller – $1.6MM
  • Daniel Bard – $1.6MM
  • Jarrod Saltalamacchia – $1.6MM
  • Mike Aviles – $1.5MM
  • Matt Albers – $1.3MM
  • Jed Lowrie – $1.2MM
  • Franklin Morales – $1MM
  • Rich Hill – $700K

Reds (6)

  • Nick Masset – $2.4MM
  • Edinson Volquez – $2.3MM
  • Homer Bailey – $1.8MM
  • Bill Bray – $1.4MM
  • Jose Arredondo – $1MM
  • Paul Janish – $800K

Rockies (4)

  • Seth Smith – $2.6MM
  • Ian Stewart – $2MM
  • Ryan Spilborghs – $2MM
  • Dexter Fowler – $2MM

Royals (8)

  • Alex Gordon – $4.4MM
  • Melky Cabrera – $4.4MM
  • Luke Hochevar – $3.9MM
  • Felipe Paulino – $1.7MM
  • Chris Getz – $1.2MM
  • Aaron Laffey – $1.2MM
  • Brayan Pena – $900K
  • Mitch Maier – $700K

Tigers (5)

  • Delmon Young – $6.3MM
  • Rick Porcello – $4.2MM
  • Max Scherzer – $3.9MM
  • Phil Coke – $1.3MM
  • Don Kelly – $800K

Twins (5)

  • Francisco Liriano – $5.2MM
  • Kevin Slowey – $2.7MM
  • Glen Perkins – $1.5MM
  • Alexi Casilla – $1.3MM
  • Jose Mijares – $1MM

White Sox (2)

  • John Danks – $7.6MM
  • Carlos Quentin – $6.6MM

Yankees (6)

  • Russell Martin – $6.7MM
  • Brett Gardner – $3.3MM
  • Phil Hughes  - $3MM
  • Joba Chamberlain – $1.7MM
  • Boone Logan – $1.6MM
  • David Robertson – $1.5MM


Leave a Reply

26 Comments on "Projected Arbitration Salaries"


Sam_Merten
3 years 9 months ago

Colby Lewis shouldn’t be on this list. He’s not arbitration-eligible. Texas just picked up his $3.25 million option.

3 years 9 months ago

Yeah him and a couple more I have to take out of the spreadsheet.

stl_cards16
3 years 9 months ago

It’s like Christmas everyday around here.

Lunchbox45
3 years 9 months ago

they really have be doing a great job lately.

stl_cards16
3 years 9 months ago

It’s awesme to see how far this place has come.   I was looking at the writing team the other day. Quite the impressive staff Tim has put together here. 

johnsmith4
3 years 9 months ago

yep…definitely helped me get re-engaged with baseball…I still remember having 1972 Who’s Who in Baseball (Cards Joe Torre on cover) and 1973 Street & Smith’s Baseball Yearbook (Reds Johnny Bench on cover) when I first started following baseball.

daveineg
3 years 9 months ago

Of the Brewers listed, Kameron Loe should be considered a non-tender candidate much like Todd Coffey was last year.  Loe had his moments but he wasn’t reliable as a late inning guy.  If the Brewers do a major FA signing, particularly at SS or 3B, I would rule out McGehee being non-tendered if he’s not traded.  In that scenario, the payroll would be stretched and McGehee’s $3 million is one place they could save.

toddboss
3 years 9 months ago

Question about the Nats: we have some Nats bloggers/beat reporters reporting that Roger Bernadina hit the super-2 arbitration cut-off on the nose with exactly 2 years, 146 days of service.  Making him an 8th arbitration candidate for us.

Any thoughts?  Has anyone looked into this?

3 years 9 months ago

Far as I can tell he fell short, based on the Super Two list he received and also trying to add up his service time.

OCAngels
3 years 9 months ago

Jeff Mathis’s salary should go DOWN in arb.!

cookmeister
3 years 9 months ago

should just be non tendered… if he wants to come back he has to accept league min.

IHateJoeBuck
3 years 9 months ago

According to Cots, the Tigers have a $1.34MM club option on Rick Porcello for the 2012 season, but I haven’t seen any reference to that on this site over the last few days?  If the Tigers declined that option (which I doubt), then he would be arb eligible, correct?

3 years 9 months ago

There USED to be a comment on Cots to the effect that, if Kid Rick was eligible for arbitration, he could go that route rather than the club picking up his option.  I don’t know why that was removed, but it seems to be the case that he can (opt for arbitration).

IHateJoeBuck
3 years 9 months ago

Just checked Cots today and it’s still listed on there.

3 years 9 months ago

Arb always supersedes those types of options, from Major League draft deals.

3 years 9 months ago

Tim Lincecum $19.2MM. Wow.

3 years 7 months ago

That actually works out relative to his $13M in 2011.  At the 40%/60%/80% thresholds that are commonly used in arbitration cases, his $13M translate to a free market salary of $32.5M.  The $19.2M translate to $32.0M, a slight reduction.

3 years 7 months ago

That actually works out relative to his $13M in 2011.  At the 40%/60%/80% thresholds that are commonly used in arbitration cases, his $13M translate to a free market salary of $32.5M.  The $19.2M translate to $32.0M, a slight reduction.

3 years 9 months ago

Any projections coming for the ranked free agents that clubs have to make decisions on offering arbitration or not?   D Day for those decisions is Nov 23rd.  Of course, the comps would be different as they’re free agents and would be compared to other free agents. 

lefty177
3 years 9 months ago

I agree with all those figures except for 2:
Matt Kemp shouldn’t be getting anything less than $12 million per year & Ellsbury should be getting more than $7.9 million per year, that’s just my opinion though

3 years 9 months ago

I came here looking for Roy Oswalt’s arbitration projection, which is missing. Any change of adding it?

FacelessGeneralManager
3 years 9 months ago

lol

gimpcom187
3 years 9 months ago

Im surprised Price is at that type of figure.  That’s pretty close to Lincecum numbers after 2 straight cy youngs (Lincecum obviously signed a 2 year contract, but his expected figure was low 8 as I recall).  I would have expected more like 5-6 range for him.  People have been expecting shields to get traded, but Price may be too expensive for the Rays after 2013 and  would likely bring back a significant haul if he puts up 2 years equivalent to the past 2.

chee1rs
3 years 8 months ago

excellent list

3 years 7 months ago

@B_frm_SoJersey :  Any player with more than 3 years service time that hasn’t accepted arbitration at this point (Dec 31st) will NOT be subject to arbitration. Nov 23 was the deadline for teams to offer arb, and Dec 7 was the deadline for players to accept arb (this year). Dec 12th was the non-tender deadline (date for teams to offer contracts or cut players w/out a contract). So at this point, any player that hasn’t been offered a contract or arbitration that is a free agent can’t get arbitration – it’s too late. They can only sign contracts at this point (either major league or minor league contracts).

JB3
3 years 7 months ago

Still missing the David Ortiz projection.