The Blue Jays are close to a three-year, $20MM contract extension with Brandon Morrow, reports Shi Davidi of Rogers Sportsnet (Twitter link). The deal also contains a $10MM option for 2015 (with a $1MM buyout) and the contract could be announced as soon as tomorrow.
The extension would cover Morrow's remaining two arbitration years and at least his first year of free agency. Morrow has a 4.62 ERA, a 10.5 K/9 rate and a 2.82 K/BB ratio in two seasons and 56 starts with Toronto, pitching a career-high 179 1/3 innings in 2011. I examined Morrow as an extension candidate last August and my prediction (a three-year, $19MM deal with an $11MM option) came quite close to the actual numbers.
!!
Awesome considering he’s been worth 15$ million a year for the last 2 years according to fWAR. Pretty cool that MLBTR predicted back in August that he would sign a 3/19 extension with a $11 million option. DEAD ON!
edits are your friend
sure, why not
I like Morrow and I think he’s a good starter but that seems a little steep.
Get id done and get more of two years ago and less of last year!
4.72 era doesnt seem that hard to find a starter capable of that
Yeah that 10.5 K/9 and 3.50 FIP/X-FIP over last 2 years, you could find that anywhere.
you can have youre 4.72 era starter and fouth place, so enjoy
I don’t think Jo Mel knows what K/9 and FIP means.
Toronto fans do know what 4th place is right, well enjoy another year of that instead of referencing useless secondary stats.
“Useless” eh? Do you have any idea how useless past ERA is in predicting future performance?
I suppose you’re more bullish on Jeff Karstens (3.38 ERA) for 2012 than Zack Greinke (3.83) and John Danks (4.33)?
He has never had an ERA below 4 as a starter, and hes not a young prospect. He has a world of talent no doubt there. But to think hes a world beater or even legit number 2 based on past performance is a joke. A sold 3 or 4 maybe but thats it.
um he’s not being paid as if he’s better than a solid 3 anyway, so whats your problem?
Yeah thats true, when you look at the dollars its actually pretty solid deal
But his ERA!
I thought the next stat he was gonna throw at you was his W/L last year
Blue Jays = 2 more world series titles than Rangers. Deal with it.
ERA is a terrible stat, stop using it.
you can have you are 4.72 era starter. lol
me fail english, thats unpossible
a 10.5k rate for a starter isn’t always easy to find… esp in the american league. i would of went 3 years @ 16m tops. but eh he has proven himself to be healthy, to be an innings eater, and the strikeout is usually there. he needs to let less hits though that create run scoring chances.
==commencing analysis==
*checking ERA*
==analysis complete==
this is amazing
Davidi just corrected himself – it’s $10m option or $1m buyout.
Morrow=aj Burnett 2.1
This coming from the guy that predicted a 5 year contract for Albert Pujols.
john12121212=angry3.1
then he’ll be great for the jays
yea thats a pretty big misconception among jays fans i find. many think the jays got stiffed by the burnett deal, but in reality he was more than a fair investment and left just before he started sucking. he was frustrating to watch at times, but overall a good pitcher in his prime.
At the time, a lot of people we’re upset when burnette left if anything
yea, i think that was just the old toronto sports fan inferiority complex when it comes to big name players. made worse of course by the fact that he left for NY.
i didnt think he’d decline as fast as he has, but i’m not terribly surprised that the yanks arent getting their moneys worth. some of the raw stuff that made him effective earlier in his career has deserted him, and he never really had great command. plus after watching him pitch for 3 years, you kind of knew he wasnt the right pitcher to pitch in NY on a big contract.
I like this move. Romero and Morrow form a strong and under-appreciated 1-2 punch at the top of the Toronto rotation.
That’s a terrible 1-2. Probably bottom 5 in baseball.
Are you on drugs?
All is clear now: AA is the new JP.
Because locking up good players to team friendly extensions was something JP did, right? Stop posting.
Depends what you mean by good
are you suggesting romero, escobar, bautista, and morrow arent good??
with a top 3 farm system and no bad contracts.
A fantastic deal if true. Morrow’s peripherals are indications that this deal could well be a bargain considering that he’d likely ear $4m in arbitration this year! Even if he delivers what he gave the Jays last year, he’ll be equal or better in value than guys making way more money.
Now learn how to do something other than racking up strikeouts. I’d take him on my team in a split second though, his results are just baffling. If he learn to pitch out of the stretch, they’d probably be talking about him as one of the best young pitchers in the league.
The most measured post of the night. Kudos to you.
in 2010 his BABIP with runners on was near .400 despite having a better batted ball profile in those situations than out of them. his peripherals were strong across the board
in 2011 that BABIP figured was down to ~.330 with a similarly stable batted ball profile. walked a few more, but struck out just as many with men on base as without. the difference was that he gave up a ton of HRs
these are bad results, no doubt. but they aren’t the kind of things that make you worry about a guy going forward, or doubt his ability to pitch with runners on. by themselves, we call them flukes. two seasons in a row seems less flukey, but it was actually just two different flukes back to back
BABIP is an overated stat. If you have that high of a BABIP like morrow has that means you make a lot of mistakes over the plate and if your BABIP is low that means you have good command within the strikezone. If you have good control within the strikezone you will get them to make weak contact which reduces the chance of them getting a hit. If you make a lot of mistakes in the strikezone batters will hit the ball harder and the chances of them getting a hit is way higher.
if only we had a way to know the quality of the contact pitchers allow
we could keep track of each batted ball for every pitcher and batter, and put on their stat pages. they could call it…a batted ball profile
If you make a good pitch the batter will make weak contact unless it is vlad batting. By looking at morrows high BABIP it is obvious he doesnt throw quality strikes( pitches at the knees or on the corners) even though he might throw strikes in general. If you are making a lot of mistakes in the strikezone your BABIP willl be inflated, if you hit your spots consistanly your BABIP will be low its that simple
no, it isn’t. you’re quite confused and judging by that size of that wooooosh you just posted i doubt i can help you
Maybe you’re right. But there has to be a reason why morrow has such a high BABIP its not just coincidence. I just think the stat is overated. Usually a pitchers whip and their opponents batting average against tells me what kind of pitcher they are. So does strikeout to walk ratio. The eye test is also important to me too.
why can’t it be coincidence. 1, even two seasons, is not a very large sample size. It could be just coincidence (and an outfield not tracking down fly balls).
BABIP is an overated stat. If you have that high of a BABIP like morrow has that means you make a lot of mistakes over the plate and if your BABIP is low that means you have good command within the strikezone. If you have good control within the strikezone you will get them to make weak contact which reduces the chance of them getting a hit. If you make a lot of mistakes in the strikezone batters will hit the ball harder and the chances of them getting a hit is way higher.
That’d be a pretty solid deal.
good signing. looking forward to seeing morrow’s progression throughout his contract.
Wow great deal for the Jays, If they were not in the ALE I would be a fan of them.
Why does their division preclude your fandom?
Maybe b/c he’s a yankee/tb/sox/orioles fan? Can’t cheer for the enemy!
I’d could go for some calamari right now.
I think I will have an Alexander Keith’s Indian Pale “ALE”
Love his potential, but advance stats love him a bit more than they should.
His k/9 is impressive, but he always faces a lot of batters, so has more chances to rack up the k’s in less innings.
if he ever starts pitching to contact watch out. . I like the deal though, pretty safe if he stays healthy and could be a bargain if he breaks out.
his k% is just as impressive at 26.1% last yr and 28% in 2010. i.e. he is also efficient even though he faces more batters as you said
yup. second highest k/9 in 2011, third highest k%. over the last 2 seasons he’s tops in both by a full percent and a full k per 9
it’s his GB% thats holding him back IMO..
last year he didn’t have a double play turned behind him until the end of the year. He has the stuff to induce ground balls, its mind set for him..
I’m probably coming across too negative, I’m a huge fan of Morrow, I just know/hope/wish he’ll be better. If he hits his stride in terms of consistancy and consistantly going deeper in to games, he’s easily the ace of the staff.
nope…you are nailing it right…better outfield defence should help…but…I expect Farrell will get in Morrow’s kitchen to improve his makeup.
His GB% is hardly terrible. He’s just been incredibly unlucky with men on base
36% last year?
pitchers like Weaver, Vazquez, Lewis, Hellickson had worse GB%. Pineda had a 0.3% lead on Morrow.
Not terrible.
I’d imagine this has some club options on the back end, usually AA’s style
If I had any reading comprehension, I’d read the entire post first
How do they figure out a players WAR. I know its wins above replacement over a minor league callup and that a WAR of 2 means your a starer, 5 is all star caliber and if your over 7 you are an mvp canidate.
FIP and xfip confuse me too as I know it is a more accurate stat of how good a pitcher is then ERA but what does it mean?
FIP relies more on K/BB numbers, and excludes the defense. Because of this, it’s a better indication of how well the pitcher pitched, and what to expect the following season. xFIP is the same principle, but also adds park adjustments, and rounds off the HR/FB % at the league-average rate.
I was hoping for an extension though I wanted two club options instead of one. Nonetheless, I like the deal.
Morrow’s ERA is pretty bad but his peripherals are just too good for that ERA not to come down. The potential with this contract is pretty high if Morrow’s ERA starts matching his FIP.
Wait… you mean the 10 year @ 190m contract I signed him for in OOTP after 2013 isn’t realistic?
I think Bill James has Morrow’s ERA coming down to 3.67 this year. And yes, I know ERA is more of a result based glossy stat accrued from other more circumstance-detailed stats that have been discussed here. I only state the ERA prediction for fantasy fans. Btw, James’ prediction seems to make some sense with Morrow’s peripherals and his time as SP reaching a more ideal level.