Blue Jays Close To Extension With Brandon Morrow

The Blue Jays are close to a three-year, $20MM contract extension with Brandon Morrow, reports Shi Davidi of Rogers Sportsnet (Twitter link).  The deal also contains a $10MM option for 2015 (with a $1MM buyout) and the contract could be announced as soon as tomorrow.

The extension would cover Morrow's remaining two arbitration years and at least his first year of free agency.  Morrow has a 4.62 ERA, a 10.5 K/9 rate and a 2.82 K/BB ratio in two seasons and 56 starts with Toronto, pitching a career-high 179 1/3 innings in 2011.  I examined Morrow as an extension candidate last August and my prediction (a three-year, $19MM deal with an $11MM option) came quite close to the actual numbers.


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75 Comments on "Blue Jays Close To Extension With Brandon Morrow"


3 years 6 months ago

!!

renegadeisback
3 years 6 months ago

Awesome considering he’s been worth 15$ million a year for the last 2 years according to fWAR. Pretty cool that MLBTR predicted back in August that he would sign a 3/19 extension with a $11 million option. DEAD ON!

FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
3 years 6 months ago

edits are your friend

pastlives
3 years 6 months ago

sure, why not

m4r1n3r
3 years 6 months ago

I like Morrow and I think he’s a good starter but that seems a little steep.

3 years 6 months ago

Get id done and get more of two years ago and less of last year!

Jon Melton
3 years 6 months ago

4.72 era doesnt seem that hard to find a starter capable of that

renegadeisback
3 years 6 months ago

Yeah that 10.5 K/9 and 3.50 FIP/X-FIP over last 2 years, you could find that anywhere.

Jon Melton
3 years 6 months ago

you can have youre 4.72 era starter and fouth place,  so enjoy

vincentjulian
3 years 6 months ago

I don’t think Jo Mel knows what K/9 and FIP means.

Jon Melton
3 years 6 months ago

Toronto fans do know what 4th place is right,  well  enjoy another year of that instead of referencing useless secondary stats.

vtadave
3 years 6 months ago

“Useless” eh? Do you have any idea how useless past ERA is in predicting future performance?

I suppose you’re more bullish on Jeff Karstens (3.38 ERA) for 2012 than Zack Greinke (3.83) and John Danks (4.33)?

Jon Melton
3 years 6 months ago

He has never had an ERA below 4 as a starter,  and hes not a young prospect.  He has a world of talent no doubt there.  But to think hes a world beater or even legit number 2 based on past performance is a joke.  A sold 3 or 4 maybe but thats it. 

pastlives
3 years 6 months ago

um he’s not being paid as if he’s better than a solid 3 anyway, so whats your problem?

Jon Melton
3 years 6 months ago

Yeah thats true,  when you look at the dollars its actually pretty solid deal

3 years 6 months ago

But his ERA!

lefty177
3 years 6 months ago

I thought the next stat he was gonna throw at you was his W/L last year

renegadeisback
3 years 6 months ago

Blue Jays = 2 more world series titles than Rangers. Deal with it.

diehardmets
3 years 6 months ago

ERA is a terrible stat, stop using it. 

Lunchbox45
3 years 6 months ago

you can have you are 4.72 era starter. lol 

me fail english, thats unpossible

Howard
3 years 6 months ago

a 10.5k rate for a starter isn’t always easy to find… esp in the american league. i would of went 3 years @ 16m tops. but eh he has proven himself to be healthy, to be an innings eater, and the strikeout is usually there. he needs to let less hits though that create run scoring chances. 

notsureifsrs
3 years 6 months ago

==commencing analysis==

*checking ERA*

==analysis complete==

Lunchbox45
3 years 6 months ago

this is amazing

renegadeisback
3 years 6 months ago

Davidi just corrected himself – it’s  $10m option or $1m buyout.

john12121212
3 years 6 months ago

Morrow=aj Burnett 2.1

renegadeisback
3 years 6 months ago

This coming from the guy that predicted a 5 year contract for Albert Pujols.

3 years 6 months ago

john12121212=angry3.1

notsureifsrs
3 years 6 months ago

then he’ll be great for the jays

3 years 6 months ago

yea thats a pretty big misconception among jays fans i find. many think the jays got stiffed by the burnett deal, but in reality he was more than a fair investment and left just before he started sucking. he was frustrating to watch at times, but overall a good pitcher in his prime.

Lunchbox45
3 years 6 months ago

At the time, a lot of people we’re upset when burnette left if anything

3 years 6 months ago

yea, i think that was just the old toronto sports fan inferiority complex when it comes to big name players. made worse of course by the fact that he left for NY.

i didnt think he’d decline as fast as he has, but i’m not terribly surprised that the yanks arent getting their moneys worth. some of the raw stuff that made him effective earlier in his career has deserted him, and he never really had great command. plus after watching him pitch for 3 years, you kind of knew he wasnt the right pitcher to pitch in NY on a big contract.

MetsMagic
3 years 6 months ago

I like this move. Romero and Morrow form a strong and under-appreciated 1-2 punch at the top of the Toronto rotation. 

nm344
3 years 6 months ago

That’s a terrible 1-2. Probably bottom 5 in baseball.

Runtime
3 years 6 months ago

Are you on drugs?

safari_punch
3 years 6 months ago

All is clear now: AA is the new JP.

renegadeisback
3 years 6 months ago

Because locking up good players to team friendly extensions was something JP did, right? Stop posting.

nm344
3 years 6 months ago

Depends what you mean by good

3 years 6 months ago

are you suggesting romero, escobar, bautista, and morrow arent good??

Lunchbox45
3 years 6 months ago

with a top 3 farm system and no bad contracts.

Paul_Zuvella
3 years 6 months ago

A fantastic deal if true. Morrow’s peripherals are indications that this deal could well be a bargain considering that he’d likely ear $4m in arbitration this year! Even if he delivers what he gave the Jays last year, he’ll be equal or better in value than guys making way more money.

bigpat
3 years 6 months ago

Now learn how to do something other than racking up strikeouts. I’d take him on my team in a split second though, his results are just baffling.  If he learn to pitch out of the stretch, they’d probably be talking about him as one of the best young pitchers in the league.

johnsmith4
3 years 6 months ago

The most measured post of the night.  Kudos to you.

notsureifsrs
3 years 6 months ago

in 2010 his BABIP with runners on was near .400 despite having a better batted ball profile in those situations than out of them. his peripherals were strong across the board

in 2011 that BABIP figured was down to ~.330 with a similarly stable batted ball profile. walked a few more, but struck out just as many with men on base as without. the difference was that he gave up a ton of HRs

these are bad results, no doubt. but they aren’t the kind of things that make you worry about a guy going forward, or doubt his ability to pitch with runners on. by themselves, we call them flukes. two seasons in a row seems less flukey, but it was actually just two different flukes back to back

Disgustedfan
3 years 6 months ago

BABIP is an overated stat. If you have that high of a BABIP like morrow has that means you make a lot of mistakes over the plate and if your BABIP is low that means you have good command within the strikezone. If you have good control within the strikezone you will get them to make weak contact which reduces the chance of them getting a hit. If you make a lot of mistakes in the strikezone batters will hit the ball harder and the chances of them getting a hit is way higher.

notsureifsrs
3 years 6 months ago

if only we had a way to know the quality of the contact pitchers allow

we could keep track of each batted ball for every pitcher and batter, and put on their stat pages. they could call it…a batted ball profile

Disgustedfan
3 years 6 months ago

If you make a good pitch the batter will make weak contact unless it is vlad batting. By looking at morrows high BABIP it is obvious he doesnt throw quality strikes( pitches at the knees or on the corners) even though he might throw strikes in general. If you are making a lot of mistakes in the strikezone your BABIP willl be inflated, if you hit your spots consistanly your BABIP will be low its that simple

notsureifsrs
3 years 6 months ago

no, it isn’t. you’re quite confused and judging by that size of that wooooosh you just posted i doubt i can help you

Disgustedfan
3 years 6 months ago

Maybe you’re right. But there has to be a reason why morrow has such a high BABIP its not just coincidence. I just think the stat is overated. Usually a pitchers whip and their opponents batting average against tells me what kind of pitcher they are. So does strikeout to walk ratio. The eye test is also important to me too.

3 years 6 months ago

why can’t it be coincidence. 1, even two seasons, is not a very large sample size. It could be just coincidence (and an outfield not tracking down fly balls).

Disgustedfan
3 years 6 months ago

BABIP is an overated stat. If you have that high of a BABIP like morrow has that means you make a lot of mistakes over the plate and if your BABIP is low that means you have good command within the strikezone. If you have good control within the strikezone you will get them to make weak contact which reduces the chance of them getting a hit. If you make a lot of mistakes in the strikezone batters will hit the ball harder and the chances of them getting a hit is way higher.

mauerfan
3 years 6 months ago

That’d be a pretty solid deal.

tdot32
3 years 6 months ago

good signing. looking forward to seeing morrow’s progression throughout his contract.

3 years 6 months ago

Wow great deal for the Jays, If they were not in the ALE I would be a fan of them.

3 years 6 months ago

Why does their division preclude your fandom?

FriedCalamari
3 years 6 months ago

Maybe b/c he’s a yankee/tb/sox/orioles fan? Can’t cheer for the enemy!

mike292929
3 years 6 months ago

I’d could go for some calamari right now.

johnsmith4
3 years 6 months ago

I think I will have an Alexander Keith’s Indian Pale “ALE”

Lunchbox45
3 years 6 months ago

Love his potential, but advance stats love him a bit more than they should.

His k/9 is impressive, but he always faces a lot of batters, so has more chances to rack up the k’s in less innings.

if he ever starts pitching to contact watch out. . I like the deal though, pretty safe if he stays healthy and could be a bargain if he breaks out.

3 years 6 months ago

his k% is just as impressive at 26.1% last yr and 28% in 2010. i.e. he is also efficient even though he faces more batters as you said

notsureifsrs
3 years 6 months ago

yup. second highest k/9 in 2011, third highest k%. over the last 2 seasons he’s tops in both by a full percent and a full k per 9

Lunchbox45
3 years 6 months ago

it’s his GB% thats holding him back IMO..

last year he didn’t have a double play turned behind him until the end of the year.  He has the stuff to induce ground balls, its mind set for him..

I’m probably coming across too negative, I’m a huge fan of Morrow, I just know/hope/wish he’ll be better. If he hits his stride in terms of consistancy and consistantly going deeper in to games, he’s easily the ace of the staff.

johnsmith4
3 years 6 months ago

nope…you are nailing it right…better outfield defence should help…but…I expect Farrell will get in Morrow’s kitchen to improve his makeup.

FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
3 years 6 months ago

His GB% is hardly terrible. He’s just been incredibly unlucky with men on base

Lunchbox45
3 years 6 months ago

36% last year?

FrankTheFunkasaurusRex
3 years 6 months ago

pitchers like Weaver, Vazquez, Lewis, Hellickson had worse GB%. Pineda had a 0.3% lead on Morrow.

Not terrible.

j6takish
3 years 6 months ago

I’d imagine this has some club options on the back end, usually AA’s style

j6takish
3 years 6 months ago

If I had any reading comprehension, I’d read the entire post first

Disgustedfan
3 years 6 months ago

How do they figure out a players WAR. I know its wins above replacement over a minor league callup and that a WAR of 2 means your a starer, 5 is all star caliber and if your over 7 you are an mvp canidate.

FIP and xfip confuse me too as I know it is a more accurate stat of how good a pitcher is then ERA but what does it mean?

Encarnacion's Parrot
3 years 6 months ago

FIP relies more on K/BB numbers, and excludes the defense. Because of this, it’s a better indication of how well the pitcher pitched, and what to expect the following season. xFIP is the same principle, but also adds park adjustments, and rounds off the HR/FB % at the league-average rate.

Sniderlover
3 years 6 months ago

I was hoping for an extension though I wanted two club options instead of one. Nonetheless, I like the deal.

Morrow’s ERA is pretty bad but his peripherals are just too good for that ERA not to come down. The potential with this contract is pretty high if Morrow’s ERA starts matching his FIP.

Runtime
3 years 6 months ago

Wait… you mean the 10 year @ 190m contract I signed him for in OOTP after 2013 isn’t realistic?