Quick Hits: Prospects, Rogers, Tigers

Today we've heard that Rich Harden is out for the year and that Nelson Cruz agreed to a two-year deal with the Rangers. Here are some more notes from around MLB…

  • Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Matt Moore are the top prospects in baseball, Keith Law writes. Law unveiled his annual top 100 list at ESPN.com this morning and Manny Machado of the Orioles and Shelby Miller of the Cardinals round out the early portion of Law's list, and the entire piece is worth reading. 
  • ESPN.com's Buster Olney lists ten prospects who have a chance to make an impact from Opening Day on and names a handful of pitchers who could be traded during Spring Training.
  • Mark Rodgers, the agent who negotiated Mike Hampton's $121MM contract 11 years ago, told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that “not every player is equipped to handle the burden" of a nine-figure deal. Morosi hears from Dan O'Dowd, Dave Dombrowski, Jon Daniels, Scott Boras and Pat Gillick and puts together a piece that's well worth your time. Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes and Yu Darvish required $100MM commitments this offseason.
  • Esmil Rogers of the Rockies has attracted some mild trade interest, Troy Renck of the Denver Post tweets. The 26-year-old is out of options and has yet to put it together at the Major League level.
  • Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski acknowledges that defense is not his team's strength, but insists the Tigers can field a strong defensive lineup if necessary, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports.


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62 Comments on "Quick Hits: Prospects, Rogers, Tigers"


3 years 6 months ago

Keith Law’s list is terrible. Bauer at 21? He’s a definite top 10

3 years 6 months ago

I agree, Jonathan Mayo’s list was alot better than Law’s.

Redbirds16
3 years 6 months ago

I liked Mayo’s list, not for the at-large rankings necessarily (asking who is better between Teheran and Harper is apples and oranges in my opinion), but rather the format allowed for prospects at each position to be looked in an isolated manner, and rankings drawn from there.

johnsilver
3 years 6 months ago

It’s hard to make out what is what with these various lists.. Take BA/Sickels, Now Law and you have everyone just about ranked differently.

YanksFanSince78
3 years 6 months ago

I think you factor them all in. It’s not like there are cases where one guy is ranked #5 on one list and another has him at #75.

I think each list reflects the criteria that matters the most. One list may be all about upside and projection (like ranking a 2012 draftee inside the top 10 if they haven’t even played a game above HS/College) where others may go by the evaluation they’ve seen in the minors, especially at the higher levels (AA).

3 years 6 months ago

Law clearly stated that he gives upside the edge over certainty and closeness to the majors. He doesn’t see Bauer as an ace, so ranked him behind guys with more truly elite potential. You know 21 is really high right? 

YanksFanSince78
3 years 6 months ago

Wow….ummmm…..First off, please keep in mind that #21 is still a very HIG ranking. Considering the fact that there are only 30 teams in baseball that means he could be the #1 prospect on several mlb teams. Also, he’s thrown all of 25 uninspiring (yeah ssm) innings in professional baseball.

It amazes me how “hype” seems to apply to team A but people scream bloody murder when a draftee with little to no showing at the GCL league isn’t listed instantly as a top 10 prospect. I can see that thinking for a talent along the lines of a Harper or Strasburg or Griffey Jy but c’mon. He could be great but he isn’t a “generational” prospect.

3 years 6 months ago

Cannot believe Julio Teheran is so low. How did he fall that much from last year?

3 years 6 months ago

because law is not smart?

notsureifsrs
3 years 6 months ago

he’s not the only scout who has cooled slightly on teheran

3 years 6 months ago

This.  Watch out though, Braves fans will do terrible terrible things to you for saying this (note my deft avoidance of violating commenting policy)

YanksFanSince78
3 years 6 months ago

But he’s the next Maddux!!!!!!! Or at least Glavine.

I kid..I kid…

3 years 6 months ago

This is actually humorous because many Braves fans give random guys as comparables to Teheran that make no sense.  Teheran strikes me as a righty Randy Johnson…

except shorter, worse breaking ball, worse changeup, etc.

Clayton Wilson
3 years 6 months ago

 We get it, you don’t like Teheran and/or Braves fans that say he’s going to have any success in the bigs. No need to make up someone comparing him to Johnson…..

3 years 6 months ago

To be honest, my distaste for Braves fans stems from their ridiculous comments during the Adam Jones for JJ & Prado trade speculation.

That said, I’ve had this feelings about Teheran for quite some time.  I’d like to see him against MLB competition for a longer time period too.

Clayton Wilson
3 years 6 months ago

Yeah, his K’s dropped……as a 20-year-old. He was 6th last year, moved up a level, and excelled to the point of being named the league’s pitcher of the year and Law drops him to 18? His K numbers fell and his extremely short stint in the bigs wasn’t great. Plenty of high-ceiling prospects see their strike out numbers fluctuate in the minors, especially at that age.

I don’t particularly care about prospect rankings, but Vizcaino above Teheran seems a little crazy to me…..

3 years 6 months ago

Do me a favor.  List all the pitchers that really only throw FB and Breaking Ball in the majors that have succeeded.

Clayton Wilson
3 years 6 months ago

Who are you referring to here, exactly? Vizcaino? Teheran isn’t a FB-BB guy, that’s Vizcaino…..

Almost every evaluation I’ve seen on Teheran projects his change-up to be his best pitch.

I disagree with Law on Teheran here, it’s not a huge deal. I’m not upset about it, just don’t particularly ‘get it.’ Teheran could very well become a bust for all I know….

3 years 6 months ago

If you show me someone who thinks his change will be his best pitch I’d love to see it.

Everything I’ve ever read says:

FB = Plus
CB = League average to above average
CH = Below league average

Clayton Wilson
3 years 6 months ago

 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-15-prospects-atlanta-braves/

Clayton Wilson
3 years 6 months ago

 Just in case my link wasn’t approved, Hulet from Fangraphs posted the Braves top 15 prospects and listed Teheran at #1.

“Teheran leads the charge for Atlanta’s young arms. He attacks hitters
with an explosive repertoire that screams future No. 1 starter… if he
can polish one of his two breaking balls. His fastball, which can touch
96-97 mph, and changeup are both plus pitches at times and just need
more consistency. Teheran has both above-average control and
understanding of his craft for his age. He is a fly-ball pitcher but he
does a nice job of keeping the ball in the park after allowing just five
home runs in 144.2 innings at triple-A. Despite a strong changeup,
Teheran struggled against left-handed batters (at least in comparison to
right-handed hitters who hit .199) by allowing a .276
batting-average-against. He just recently turned 21 years old and
already has 20 innings of big league experience under his belt. Atlanta
has excellent pitching depth at the big league level so Teheran should
receive some more seasoning at the triple-A level to begin 2012.”

3 years 6 months ago

Fair enough.  I would also suggest you read Keith Law’s piece on Teheran in his top 100.

Keith mentions that his CH could be plus, but that there are other issues that cause (mild) concern for Teheran.

It’s a good read.

Clayton Wilson
3 years 6 months ago

And considering this, is it safe to say that you assume that Teheran won’t have any success at the big-league level?

3 years 6 months ago

And no.  I don’t think he won’t be successful at the MLB level at all.  I just don’t buy into the hype that he’s going to be a #1 guy and compete for Cy Young’s.

3 years 6 months ago

Is he also not smart for ranking Vizcaino higher than everyone else every year? Law had Vizcaino 22 slots higher than Mayo did, much greater than the difference between Law and anyone on Teheran. Braves fans have to pick their poison. 

3 years 6 months ago

Sad reading that list as a Cubs fan.

sox2727
3 years 6 months ago

it’s not better on the other side of town i can tell you that

3 years 6 months ago

Flipping Cashner for Rizzo was a nice start for a new administration that hasn’t had a draft or a July international free agent season yet.

johnsilver
3 years 6 months ago

Esmil Rodgers has done a little less than just fail to put it together thus far.. He has failed miserably thus far.

Any team that does attempt to figure out what is wrong is going to have to waste a roster spot while working on his mechanics at the same time.. This would just about have to be a 2nd tier team. I can’t see a top team try to fix him from the bottom up, which he is going to require.

He needs an Andrew Miller type overhaul.

CardsEagles1489
3 years 6 months ago

Keith Law’s list is so terrible because he has a hatred for certain teams, such as the Phillies, Cardinals and apparently the Braves. Some people rank Julio Teheran above Shelby Miller, and Teheran is always in the top 5 among the non-biased experts. Also, Mike Trout is not better than Miller or Teheran..

3 years 6 months ago

Sorry, but Trout is universally accepted as a top 2 prospect in baseball. Miller is generally regarded as 4-5. The big debate is Harper or Trout for number 1.

Pawsdeep
3 years 6 months ago

I gotta agree. And I wouldn’t put Harper ahead of Trout; Harper will soon be devastating baseballs at a scary rate, but overall, Trout just seems to be a more rounded player. He seems to have a more versatile tool set that is close to being a finished product, while Harper has some raw power and tools that could become unmatched.

Either way, they belong at 1 and 2 wherever you put them.

jwsox
3 years 6 months ago

It’s hard in my opinion to say who is better between trout and Harper. Try both have good speed ( trout obviously more) the gloves seem like a match. I think trout will hit a better for a better average and Harper will obviously hit more power so it’s what you value more you know

3 years 6 months ago

So…Klaw hates the Braves because he had Shelby Miller ahead of Teheran (who he ranks low because of the weaker breaking ball), but also hates the Cardinals because Shelby Miller ranked 5th overall? 

I must say, I always get a good laugh at these “Klaw hates ________(insert name of commenter’s favourite team here)” comments.  I read them as “I have pre-conceived notions about my team’s players, and I will call anybody who disagrees in a negative fashion biased, when in fact it is clearly me who is biased.”

notsureifsrs
3 years 6 months ago

i disagree with him therefore he is biased

YanksFanSince78
3 years 6 months ago

So he’s biased because he doesn’t agree with your evaluation of ONE Braves’ prospect? gotcha.

Clayton Wilson
3 years 6 months ago

 Gotta love your ‘matter of fact’ approach to responding to Law’s rankings…..

I’m interested in hearing why you think Miller and Teheran are better prospects than Trout.

3 years 6 months ago

Wouldn’t this be interesting: Manny Machado for Shelby Miller straight up. O’s need young pitching and Cards need a top SS prospect for the future. (Not saying I do or don’t want this deal. Completely neutral. Just wanting some opinions).

BradyAnderson
3 years 6 months ago

 We have absolutely nothing lined up after JJ Hardy’s years are up. They are really hoping to bring in a very strong defensive infield all around the same time, with Machado heading that up. We already have fringe MLB pitchers with high upside (Matusz, Britton)…they just need to perform.
We’ll give up current known talent for those pitching prospects though, since yall are winning now anyways.

3 years 6 months ago

This is actually false.  If they traded Machado they could put Schoop back at SS (his natural position).

3 years 6 months ago

Schoop started at short. That doesn’t make it his natural position. I haven’t heard anyone credible say he could stick there. 

3 years 6 months ago

That would likely be because it’s a non-issue with Machado there.  His fielding % (which is a crappy stat, I know) is not much worse than Machado’s in over 800 chances at the position.

Just saying that acting like the O’s having “absolutely nothing” after Machado is false.

3 years 6 months ago

I kept hearing he was destined for a move before he and Machado were ever teammates. I like to imagine that if they really thought Schoop could be a big league shortstop, they’d keep them at different levels to maximize value. And when range is a guy’s biggest problem, fielding % is an especially bad stat. (Fully acknowledging that you know it’s a bad stat.)

Also, positional scarcity is a good reason not to trade Machado for Miller, but frankly, just having a good veteran shortstop puts them ahead of most teams. I think they should have traded Hardy last year, since he won’t be on the next good Orioles team. But a lot of teams don’t have a good shortstop in the majors OR minors.

3 years 6 months ago

True, but to be fair, the only guys that people say are locks to stay at SS are ones with ridiculous range.  That’s why Devin Marrero is a top 5 draft pick 4 months from now despite hitting like 3 HRs last season.

Hardy can (and likely will) be traded before his contract ends though.  If he plays this year like he did last year, his value will only go up.  You have to imagine teams being wary of last season, so proving it wasn’t a fluke will make him more attractive in trades.

Lunchbox45
3 years 6 months ago

 O’s lose that deal

they’re are far less Good SS than good SP.

3 years 6 months ago

I think if you consider positional scarcity then yeah.  But you also have to look at the O’s having 2 guys who can play SS in their top 3 prospects, so they’d probably benefit from having less SS and more SP

Lunchbox45
3 years 6 months ago

Thats fine, you sell your excess or blocked players.. but a top prospect SS is worth more than a top prospect pitcher. (few exceptions of course)
 

3 years 6 months ago

I completely agree with you.  Simply playing devil’s advocate

3 years 6 months ago

I’m actually a little surprised there was no love for Miller. This is a top notch guy that is a good bet to be an ace. Really excited about this guy.

3 years 6 months ago

I remember last year people were way higher on Martinez than Miller.  I always found Miller more interesting (perhaps because he’s more likely to reach his upside)

Clayton Wilson
3 years 6 months ago

Law had Freeman at 43 and didn’t rank Kimbrel last year, and they finished 1-2 in the Rookie of The Year voting. Calm down Braves fans, this is one guys opinion.

Vote4DougWilson
3 years 6 months ago

Reports of the Tigers defensive demise are greatly exaggerated:

#1) Strong up the middle- Avila and Ajax are potential GG’ers when all is said and done, and while Peralta and Santiago may be limited in range, they have sure hands that don’t make mistakes.

#2) Improved OF corners- Boesch is a huge upgrade from Magglio. Dirks, Raburn, Thomas, Kelly, whoever… ANYONE is better than Delmon Young. Let’s face it, Delmon and Miggy will almost never be on the left side together, and any defensive shortcomings of Cabby will be compensated by having a guy like Kelly in LF over Delmon and vice versa. This is not the crippling defensive decision people pretend.

#3) Is 3b REALLY worse?- This is a team that last season was so hurt for offense they let the defensive “wizard” Inge go to AAA to get Wilson Betemit in the lineup, a guy so bad defensively he’s now DHi’ing for a team that played MARK REYNOLDS at 3b last season! Can Cabrera TRULY be so much worse defensively than Reynolds/Betemit that he’s not worth the offense? Seriously?

Clayton Wilson
3 years 6 months ago

 Were the Tigers really ‘hurt’ for offense though? They finished the year 4th in the AL in runs, runs per game, OBP, and SLG while having the 3rd best AVG in the league.

Vote4DougWilson
3 years 6 months ago

That’s in large part BECAUSE they got Inge out of the lineup in favor of Betemit (now Cabrera with the same defense), added Young to LF (instead of no-1st-half Raburn), and swapped out (since demoted)Rhymes, (since traded)Sizemore, and (since injured)Guillen for Santiago and 2nd half (hey I can hit now guys!) Raburn at 2b.

I’m not saying they lacked for offense before, just saying that their current configuration is so offensively loaded that it more than makes up for the defensive limitations.

Clayton Wilson
3 years 6 months ago

 Wow, I guess my mind just couldn’t handle the thought of Young improving the Tigers. Had no idea he did so well in the power department….

Vote4DougWilson
3 years 6 months ago

Yeah, he really turned things around when he got to Detroit and went on a tear down the stretch and into the playoffs. We’ll see if he can maintain that for a whole season… he is in a contract year.

MichTrumbull
3 years 6 months ago

This is what I’m hoping for this year.  I’m not too concerned about Cabrera committing an error in the first to allow Ichiro to get to first if he can hit a 2-run double in the sixth.

Vote4DougWilson
3 years 6 months ago

Especially when your rotation is half strikeout pitchers and half ground ball/double play specialists.

Runtime
3 years 6 months ago

WOW. I never knew how big of a bust Hampton was…

Clayton Wilson
3 years 6 months ago

 Contract was apparently too much of a burden…..lol.

If Hampton goes 15-10 with the same ERA and peripherals in 1999, he doesn’t come close to that insane contract.

johnsilver
3 years 6 months ago

Nah.. Just several topics on the same post.. We all do that and it’s cool. :-)

I would like to see Rodgers reclaim his career, but he needs a complete makeover and have a hard time seeing even a 2nd tier team wasting a roster spot for an entire season with the patience working with him and then having to expose him to waivers if they attempt to send him to the minors..

One of those creative contracts like Miller signed could work.. Where an outrageous contract for 2013 kicks n if he is claimed/traded…

3 years 6 months ago

Completely agree.  While it always makes you feel better about your team and its prospects to see professionals speak highly of them, it really doesn’t mean “that” much.  Plenty of the prospects they love flop and plenty they never even mention turn out to be pretty solid players (sometimes even stars).  While they’re certainly more qualified to evaluate players than we are, their predictions are far from 100% accurate.  So what if a guy ranks your favorite prospect a couple spots lower than other people do?  It’s really not as big a deal as we sometimes like to act like it is and it has absolutely zero effect on how well the prospects actually perform once they reach the bigs.