You may remember Matt Swartz from such MLBTR projects as the 2012 arbitration projections. Matt's model was very accurate the first time through, and he's made it even better for the 2013 projections. I asked Matt for a sneak peek at 2013 projected salaries for some arbitration eligible trade candidates. He used Dan Szymborski's rest-of-season ZiPS projections to account for the remainder of the 2012 season.
- Hunter Pence: $14.3MM
- Jason Vargas: $8.1MM
- Shin-Soo Choo: $7.6MM
- Chase Headley: $6.1MM
- Geovany Soto: $4.6MM
I can’t see any way Soto is tendered a contract. $4.6M for basically a 2nd catcher is way too much.
You don’t think 4.6MM is totally worth is for a .195 average?
If Theo & Co. are smart, they’ll unload Soto before the deadline for anything north of a bag of balls, since they will definitely not tender him at $4.6.
Soto is having the worst season of his career. He has been injured a lot. If he could stay healthy maybe split a work load I could see him making a big bounce back in 2013. Soto is still the starting catcher.
For a nonelite RF, Hunter Pence is expensive.
It’ll be interesting to see what kind of deal he can get after next year, might be a case where his salary drops after arbitration….
Come on, no one wants 5 tool Justin Upton?
How is this even remotely relevant to the article?
No longer a trade candidate at the break, so not applicable to this article.
Tim — nice “Troy McClure” reference!
“You might remember me from such films as…” This comment just made my day, if i could thumbs up it twice i would have.
Phillies paying Pence around $14 million for next season is probably not ideal for their payroll.
I think his AAV will probably go DOWN the next year when he gets a new contract in free agency.
What is the projection for Jacoby Ellsbury?
How about Chris Perez? I’m wondering is his projection isn’t north of the $7.6MM Choo is projected to get. Might make more sense to move Perez since he can be more readily replaced with pieces already on Tribes roster.