Arbitration Eligibles: San Francisco Giants

The Giants are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Wilson represents a high-profile non-tender candidate for the World Champions.  The closer, 31 in March, had Tommy John surgery in April.  Though he missed most of the 2012 season, a salary decrease is unlikely, hence the $8.5MM figure.  It'd be a large commitment for a reliever coming off major elbow surgery, even if Wilson manages to beat the typical one-year recovery and be ready for Opening Day.  The Giants would still have Romo, Casilla, and Javier Lopez in next year's bullpen, though if they cut Wilson and lose Jeremy Affeldt via free agency they might feel compelled to make an addition. 

Casilla, and especially Romo, make for a formidable pair at the back end of the bullpen.  The Giants also have arbitration eligible relievers in Mijares and Hensley.  Mijares was solid following the Giants' August waiver claim, while Hensley is a non-tender candidate.

The Giants have a few utility types up for arbitration in Blanco, Arias, and Burriss.  Blanco and Arias seem safe, while Burriss was on and off the team's 40-man roster in 2012 and will be let go.

In Pence, the Giants have the most expensive arbitration eligible player in all of baseball.  A former Super Two, the right fielder took a larger-than-usual salary leap by winning his 2011 arbitration case.  For some reason, the Astros and Phillies never hammered out an extension with Pence and he's continued going year-to-year.  He was a trade deadline acquisition for the Giants, and unlike his Phillies' post-deadline stint in '11, Pence struggled.  The Giants don't seem to be considering non-tendering him; instead they'll hope for a return to career levels in 2013. 

Posey was the NL's Comeback Player of the Year after missing most of 2011 due to a major ankle injury.  He's also an MVP candidate, an award that would further boost his arbitration salary.  We don't project Posey to sniff Ryan Howard's first-time arbitration record of $10MM, but the Super Two backstop will set a first-time record for catchers and would get expensive in a hurry going year-to-year.  Carlos Gonzalez signed the biggest extension for a player with less than three years service, a seven-year, $80MM deal.  Since he's a Super Two player, Posey would deserve about that much on a six-year contract.  However, Posey's agents at CAA Sports could have a $100MM+ deal in their sights, assuming an extension is on the table for both parties.

Assuming the Giants tender contracts to only Posey, Casilla, Romo, Mijares, Blanco, and Arias, they're looking at an estimated $18.6MM for six arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.


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27 Comments on "Arbitration Eligibles: San Francisco Giants"


Member
bonds2425
2 years 8 months ago

I don’t think the giants can let pagan or affeldt walk away. They can obviously afford them and it would be pretty disappointing to see them leave.

Member
chicothekid
2 years 8 months ago

I like what Pagan and Affeldt have done for the team, but this is one case where Pagan needs to show some loyalty. He’s been nothing but a scrub and extra OF for the majority of his career and he suddenly hit lightning in a bottle. To do the team dirty where everything came together for you would be shameful. If he wants to stay at a reduced price, they should keep him. It’s a good fit for both sides.

If he wants to milk it for every dollar he can get though, let him leave. He won’t be worth it, he’ll probably regress to old form and sabotage his new team, teach them a lesson for overpaying, and the Giants do have a knack for finding hidden gems. They’ll just have to do it again.

Member
Sam
2 years 8 months ago

They should lock up Posey on a Cain-like contract. Pay the man!

Member
bonds2425
2 years 8 months ago

I see posey getting an extension this winter. I’m sure he’ll get over 100mm but for how many years?

Member
seth
2 years 8 months ago

I think they should wait on Posey. He is going to be expensive no matter what. And he is going to be a Giant no matter what. This team has his back, this manager has his back and everybody knows it.
Financially i dont think it makes sense to pay him at one of his highest points in value or stock. He had a breakout year. He still isnt running 100%. I would want to see another year and also want to see if he decides to stay at catcher, as i have heard rumblings about moving him, although i think those will be canned now that we won the WS AGAIN! But i think it makes sense to pay him arb this year and then see how he does next year, when he is healthier. His stock literally could not be higher than it is right now, i dont understand paying that much money right now when he has ankle problems and there has been talk about changing positions. Lets face it catchers get paid more. Not trying to underplay what he means. I just think we should wait one more year. Dude is going to get paid, he deserves it, but financially it makes sense to me to wait.

Member
55saveslives
2 years 8 months ago

Not a Cain contract yet, but Braun/Longoria definitely.

Member
2 years 8 months ago

I’m surprised that Pence ended up going year to year. To me, I’d want him back, but not at $13.8M; I’d let him go and re-sign him if his price falls below $10M. However, then you have to retain Pagan. Brian Wilson, with Sergio Romo now the closer, will have to look for a deal elsewhere.

As for Posey, I agree that it may be time to talk at least a 4-year contract to get him through all of his arbitration-eligible years if Posey is a Super-2.

Member
chicothekid
2 years 8 months ago

Pence is paid way too much. WS or no, there is no way I’m paying him that much. If he wants to come back at 10M, sure. Otherwise, let him walk and find another replacement. Ross, Swisher, Bourne, Hamilton, Victorino, or Ludwick come to mind.

Member
2 years 8 months ago

Ross had his chance; Bourne will want a long-term contract; Hamilton will cost 2x as much & want a long-term contract; Swisher will want a long-term contract…. Point is, take your chance on Pence for 1 year without committing to another albatross contract

Member
seth
2 years 8 months ago

I agree with both points. Pence is WAYY overpaid. He does not in any way deserve 13 mil. But he will be entering a contract year. He is athletic and has potential. Instead of signing somebody long term, ride it out with Pence and pay for the one year and hope he has monster contract year. I have no idea how he hit almost 300 while with Houston. I dont see it.

Member
2 years 8 months ago

Yup, let him earn a 3yr deal like Pagan did (even if not with the Giants). The better Pence plays, the better the Giants play

Member
rxbrgr
2 years 8 months ago

I’m surprised by Casilla’s big jump. His salary was only $2.2m last year, and after one year of closing, he gets over a $3m raise. Any ideas why??

Member
seth
2 years 8 months ago

I dont understand this either. That is way too high of a jump in salary. Also Mijares definetely needs to get arbitration.

Member
Tony DiQuattro
2 years 8 months ago

Maybe because he was the closer for most of the season or got the most saves for the team? Closers tend to get overvalued in arbitration as well as free agency.

Member
Huff's dog
2 years 8 months ago

Wilson won’t be non-tendered. Clearly the right decision is to let him go, but Sabean will do what he does and keep his popular players. Keeping him is a complete joke, IMO. Sabean really should be fired after he tenders Wilson a huge contract.

Member
2 years 8 months ago

You want Sabean fired for something he hasn’t done?? 2 World Series in 3 years & $1.25 gets you a bag of potato chips I guess

Member
bonds2425
2 years 8 months ago

It pays to have Wilson on the team. He’s such a marketable player taking the chance for one year at 8.5mm is absolutely worth it.

Member
rainyperez
2 years 8 months ago

At 8.5 million? No.

But a non-tender and value contract? Yes.

Member
Tony DiQuattro
2 years 8 months ago

They could just pay him and see how the season goes, but you could ask him yourself and he would say he doesn’t deserve it.

If he has any real loyalty to this team (he should, they already gave him a 2 year deal that was more than fair), they should be able to non tender him and bring him back with a $3M base value contract with incentives to bring it to $8.5 or more.