Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Mets are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows that.
- Daniel Murphy (4.109): $5.8MM
- Ike Davis (3.155): $3.5MM
- Dillon Gee (3.028): $3.4MM
- Bobby Parnell (4.132): $3.2MM
- Eric Young, Jr. (3.123): $1.9MM
- Lucas Duda (2.132, Super Two): $1.8MM
- Scott Atchison (4.168): $1.3MM
- Ruben Tejada (2.151, Super Two): $1MM
- Omar Quintanilla (4.122): $900K
- Justin Turner (3.045): $800K
- Mike Baxter (2.129, Super Two): $500K
Much has been written about Davis, who projects for a modest $375K raise after a lost season. Earlier this month, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com wrote that the team is giving no consideration to non-tendering Davis, though a trade is possible. Davis, 27 in March, hit 32 home runs in 2012 and would appeal to many teams as a buy-low candidate given a weak free agent market for first basemen. Rubin has also written about the possibility of the Mets keeping Davis and trading or optioning Duda.
Murphy, Gee, and Parnell had fine seasons for the Mets, and will be bargains at their arbitration salaries. After leading the NL in stolen bases, Young's roster spot is safe.
Tejada, Quintanilla, and Turner picked up the bulk of the starts at shortstop this year, with Turner backing up at other spots as well. Tejada, whose season ended with a broken leg, has frustrated the Mets with his attitude and work ethic, as outlined in this article from Jim Baumbach of Newsday. It does not seem the Mets want to give up on him with a non-tender, but a trade seems possible if they find a better option to start at shortstop. Given their small salaries, it's possible Quintanilla and Turner both return in backup roles.
Atchison and Baxter failed to impress this year, and there's a good chance they're non-tendered in December.
Trades could thin this group, but if the Mets tender contracts to Murphy, Davis, Gee, Parnell, Young, Duda, Tejada, Quintanilla, and Turner, they're looking at an estimated $22.3MM for nine arbitration eligible players.