APRIL 22: Padres manager Andy Green told reporters, including MLB.com’s A.J. Cassavell, that the MRI results reached him in the middle of last night’s game. Ross will not require surgery on the shoulder, but he still won’t throw for another couple of weeks. Ross will be re-evaluated in two weeks, per Green. While the fact that he’ll avoid surgery is obviously a positive for the Padres, that timeline seemingly suggests that Ross could be out until at least mid-May. One has to imagine that he’ll require a minor league rehab assignment before returning, so even in an ideal scenario it’d be fair to tack another week or two on top of the two week point of re-evaluation.
Green did note that the injury to Spangenberg appears to be mild in nature, adding that there’s “some optimism that at the end of 15 days, he could be back with us.”
APRIL 20: Padres right-hander Tyson Ross will undergo an MRI on his ailing right shoulder, per multiple reporters, including Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). Yesterday, Lin tweeted that Ross was beginning to play catch for the first time since being placed on the disabled list with right shoulder inflammation on April 5.
While it’s not yet clear that Ross is facing a serious shoulder injury, he’s unquestionably facing a longer absence than he and the club had hoped when he originally hit the disabled list. Ross was initially optimistic that he’d be able to return after missing the minimum amount of time, but it’s already been 15 days since he was placed on the disabled list and a rehab assignment doesn’t appear to be in his immediate future.
The 28-year-old was San Diego’s best starter last season and has in fact quietly been one of the NL’s better starters across the past three seasons. Dating back to 2013, Ross has given the Padres 516 2/3 innings of 3.07 ERA ball, averaging 9.2 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings to go along with a 58.2 percent ground-ball rate. However, Ross also easily leads all Major League starters in slider usage over that three-year span; thirty-nine percent of Ross’ offerings from 2013-15 were sliders (via Fangraphs), and that’s a full four percent higher than Ervin Santana, who rated second on that list. Some in the past have questioned Ross’ delivery, as well, wondering about his ability to remain healthy.
Ross is earning $9.625MM this year after his second trip through the arbitration process this past winter. He reportedly drew significant trade interest both last summer and in the offseason, but the Padres elected not to move him, instead counting on him to help front the 2016 iteration of their starting rotation alongside James Shields and Andrew Cashner. While moving Ross this summer, when he would have a year and a half of club control left, seemed like a plausible fallback option, a significant injury would of course cast a shadow of doubt on that possibility.
Ross’ troubling news isn’t the only bit of bad luck for the Padres on the health front; the club placed infielder Cory Spangenberg on the disabled list today with a strained left quad. Spangenberg, a former first-round pick, has quietly delivered solid production for the Padres since his big league debut in 2014, batting a combined .269/.327/.402 (106 OPS+, 105 wRC+). The club added Jemile Weeks to its 40-man roster to take Spangenberg’s place.
Weeks had a great spring and lost out on the final roster spot at the end of spring training. He is still young enough to be interesting. Hoping fit the best.
I know we were not expected to compete this year but the loss of Ross, Solarte, and now Spangenberg is disappointing. Hopefully we will see some of those guys back soon. It does not appear we have any viable prospect options for those positions and if we do decide to use Ross as a trade chip this injury and high slider rate (supposedly increase risk for TJ) may diminish his trade value. I was hoping for a haul similar to what we received for Kimbrel or maybe approaching what the Dbacks gave up for Shelby Miller. Although realistically the Dbacks overpaid on Miller and some would value him higher than Ross.
The Diamondbacks grossly overpaid for Miller and that extra year of control that he has compared to Ross is a big point in his favor.
But there was really no excuse for not trading Ross in the offseason. At least with Cashner you could make an argument that, after a really bad 2o15 season, his trade value might be higher at the deadline. And now Preller is facing the consequences.
It’s going to be early June before he returns. Doesn’t look like a max value trade will be possible. I know you can’t predict injuries, but you can predict that his value would never be higher than it was in the offseason. Since the Padres cannot compete now and knew going into the season that they cannot compete, Preller should have traded him.
Jon Roegele among others have shown conclusively that increased usage of the slider does not contribute to a higher injury rate among pitchers.
If I could put links I would, but instead, google Baseball Pitching Biomechanics in Relation to Injury Risk and Performance on the NIH website.
Here is a quote from another article:
“In 2006, Dr. Glenn Fleisig, the preeminent biomechanist in baseball from the American Sports Medicine Institute (ASMI), led a study that was a kinetic comparison between pitch types. He used collegiate pitchers, which is not unusual for these types of studies, as MLB teams are loath to risk their own valuable investment for science.
What Fleisig found is that the joint loads for the fastball, slider and curveball were very similar, while the changeup had less of a load on the joint. This and later studies suggest that velocity is more important than pitch type, exploding the myth of “pitch cost,” or that one type of pitch was harder on the arm than another.”.
Later trade value
Ross should have been traded in the off season. He is hands down a superior pitcher to Shelby Miller. Granted, the haul the Braves got was a once in a decade fleecing but as soon as that trade was completed Preller should have been on the phone talking to teams like the Cubs, Yankees and Red Sox plus a few more. The Cubs especially have a very deep farm with several blocked prospects. The addition of Ross would have made the Cubs rotation match their lineup. Imagine pitchers with the talent of Lester and Lackey as #3 and #4 starters. I wonder if he even bothered to check in with Stewart when the Miller rumors first started circulating. Imo Blair and Swanson would still be a slight overpay even for Ross but at least the D-Backs would have held onto Inciarte. Yeah hindsight being 20-20 and all. I bet you all have figured out I am drinking and posting again. Lol I need a breathalyzer on my laptop. I will stop now.
You’re forgetting the fact that Shelby Miller has one more year of control than Ross does and no team will ever agree to a fair trade with the Padres. They are the team that gets fleeced in every trade in everyone else’s minds.
Huh? You saying the Padres got fleeced trading Kimbrel to Boston?
That was a fluke. Preller has a reputation in baseball. Almost one is going to give him what his players are worth. Dombrowski was a new GM when he traded for Kimbrel and new GM’s are often lavish with inherited prospects.
Inform yourself before posting stupid comments. Dombrowski is not a gm and he also isn’t “new”, as he was the gm of the tigers before going to boston.
Idk what Dombrowski’s formal title is but he was the one who pulled the trigger on the Kimbrel trade and when I said “new” I meant “new within the Red Sox system.” It’s common for GM’s who just got hired to not show any loyalty to inherited prospects. I mean we saw it with Preller, Stewart, etc. Not saying it’s a good thing or a bad thing, but it’s definitely a thing.
“Preller has a reputation in baseball” as being very smart and the hardest working man in baseball. Organizational change takes time – people need to back off the Preller hate
That makes a lot more sense. I still don’t think you’re correct that preller has some reputation that means he wont get a fair trade, though.
No one wants to get taken by the Padres. In their eyes we are the ones who are supposed to get taken in trades. I mean we saw it with Turner, Rizzo, etc.
Giving shields all that $ was stupid. Firing buddy was stupid, embarrassing Dave Roberts and bringing in murphy was stupid. AJ is making bad decisions. I don’t care about his IQ. Smart but bad decisions doesn’t work for me. Works hard…that is activity…he is in a results business. Inexperienced for sure. Ever heard him in an interview? Not articulate at all. And he needs a hairbrush!
Exactly. Well said. I was a big proponent on the Padres trading Ross over the offseason. His value was never going to be higher. Now they are screwed. No team is going to give anything of value for him until he comes back and shows that he is healthy, which could be months from now.
Could be a Cliff Lee scenario. Younger though.
Ross’ trade value = all time low
Apparently this GM doesn’t have a plan.
No he does not. Terrible idea to hang onto Ross. And look at their lineup last night. Melvin Upton was batting cleanup. Melvin Upton!!!
The funny thing is that Upton has been one of the better hitters on the team so far.
But their lack of depth is really being exposed now with all these injuries occurring. The pitching has been bad enough as it is. Shields looked lost on the mound last night.
I have a question, who bats cleanup if Upton gets hurt? Myers is not cut out for cleanup. Kemp doesn’t want to do it and has made that clear. Norris? Is he hitting above the Mendoza line yet? Jay? Blash? The Padres will have more injuries, that is a given. So who are the fall back plans? I don’t think Preller has a plan.
Call up Renfroe? Throw Amarista in there for the heck of it? Maybe they’ll just keep throwing stuff at a wall to see what sticks.
It is all quite confusing.
Padres will probably take it slow with him, get him back in June so he can throw a few starts to audition for his future team as they will probably trade him by the deadline if healthy.
Well…the next to worse case scenario (obviously TJ or similar would be the worst)..now the Padres need Ross to get healthy, pitch well, AND then overcome the questions about his healthy/durability. A Miller-Lite (pun intended) deal would have still brought a lot of good talent back to SD. Young arms are King right now.
Wasn’t aware A.J. Green retired from the Bengals and became a big league manager. Good for him!
I”m really glad the cubs didn’t end up trading for him. On top of being a 2 pitch pitcher with control issues, injury concerns always worried me with him (much like they do with chris archer).
I’m not really what SD was doing last offseason, but I hope that they attempted to ship Ross to the dbacks instead of Miller. Without knowing what kind of offers they got, it’s hard to say they should have trade Ross, but this looks bad for them.
What injury concerns? What control issues?
It would absolutely suck for the Cubs to have 4 pitchers in the top 30 in baseball in their rotation with Lester and Lackey being #3 and #4. Why would any team want that?
Injury – he has a rather high effort delivery and less than ideal mechanics..
Control – he was second to last in bb/9 for qualified starters last year.
Lester > Ross.
baseballprospectus.com/p/58617
ctrl + f injury history and look.
TJS, numerous shoulder issues, surgery on his shoulder.
I notice you have no reply pads fan. Glad you realized you are just wrong.
Of the two, Ross has had the lower ERA in 2 of the last 3 seasons. And his ERA would have been a lot lower last year if the Padres’ defense didn’t suck.
Ross > Lester
Yes, era is the best stat to look at. Especially when one pitcher gets to pitch in petco and the other had 2 of the last 3 years in the AL.
I agree with others saying that they should have traded Ross in the offseason. This injury has now made his value take a major hit.
As for the team itself, the injuries are starting to pile up. Ross, Erlin, Spangenberg, solarte. Goodness knows who will be next. It will be interesting to see what they do with the rotation, since it was already pretty thin. Things could get really ugly, really fast.
Yeah, they have no pitching depth at all. This might be a scenario like a few years ago when the Padres were running guys like Kip Wells and Jeff Suppan and Jason Marquis out there. I mean, Aaron Harang is still available, right? Sigh.
Yes I remember those dark days. Edison Volquez and Clayton Richard also come to mind, and they were supposed to be the better pitchers of the rotation.
Maybe they’ll give Tim Lincecum another call if things get worse?