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Jon Niese Rumors
The latest on the Mets..
- Earlier today at the GM meetings, Sandy Alderson brought up the idea of possibly trading Jon Niese or Dillon Gee unprompted, according to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News (via Twitter). The Mets will listen on anyone but are more reluctant to move Niese than others.
- A Mets official told Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter) that the team probably won’t trade Daniel Murphy because of the void it would create at second base. Jordany Valdespin would be the alternative and he isn’t viewed highly enough in the organization to be moved up into that slot.
- The Mets announced that they have agreed to terms with catcher Mike Nickeas on a minor league deal that includes an invitation to Spring Training.
With less than one month remaining in the regular season it’s time for some teams to look ahead to the offseason. Here’s the latest on a pair of potential trade candidates…
- Justin Upton is aware that this could be his final month with the Diamondbacks, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. Upton said he’s comfortable in Arizona, but prepared for the possibility of a trade. "I'm in a good place right now," he told Piecoro. "I'm in a good place mentally about it.” The Diamondbacks considered trade offers for Upton this summer and haven’t publicly ruled out the possibility of a winter trade.
- Baseball officials wonder if the Mets would trade Jon Niese, Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger reports. Rival executives have noticed Niese’s production (3.55 ERA in 165 innings) and believe the left-hander could bring the Mets a quality return in a potential trade. One executive told McCullough the Mets could get two or three prospects for Niese and others compared him to Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill. Niese is under team control through 2018 after signing a five-year, $25.27MM extension this spring.
- Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog weighs in and explains why the Mets would likely target "an established, young, under-control position player" if they put Niese on the market. Cerrone wonders if the Mets could match up with the Diamondbacks on a possible deal involving Upton and explains why trading Niese for a legitimate outfield bat could appeal to GM Sandy Alderson.
The Mets have officially signed left-hander Jonathon Niese to a five-year extension with two club options, the team announced. The deal is worth $25.5MM, and the two options could push the total value to $46MM. Niese is an O'Connell Sports Management client.
The deal cover Niese's final pre-arbitration season, his three arbitration seasons and at least one season of free agency. He will earn $1.02MM this year, $3MM next year, $5MM in 2014, $7MM in 2015, and $9MM in 2016. The pair of club options offers the Mets the opportunity to keep Niese in New York for two additional free agent years.
Niese, 25, has a 4.39 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 370 2/3 career innings. He posted career-best strikeout (7.9 K/9) and walk (2.5 BB/9) rates during a promising 2011 campaign, but didn't pitch after enduring an intercostal strain on August 23rd.
This extension represents the biggest contract the Mets have agreed to under GM Sandy Alderson. It resembles deals signed by starters Derek Holland, Clay Buchholz and Trevor Cahill. However, Niese obtains less guaranteed money than Buchholzand Cahill, who had considerably lower career ERAs when they signed.
ESPN New York's Adam Rubin first reported that the two sides agree to the deal and later added details (on Twitter). Newday's David Lennon provided the annual breakdown (on Twitter). Ben Nicholson-Smith contributed to this post.
It’s been a big week for extensions, as Joey Votto and Matt Cain signed historic contracts on Monday. Here are some extension updates from around the league, starting with a couple additional notes on Votto’s deal.
- John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer has the annual breakdown of Votto's deal (Twitter links). He'll earn $12MM in 2014, $14MM in 2015, $20MM in 2016, $22MM in 2017, and $25MM during each of the final six years. The club option for 2024 is worth $20MM with a $7MM buyout.
- Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com has a breakdown of Jonathon Niese's new extension with the Mets (on Twitter). The southpaw gets a $250K signing bonus with annual salaries of $769.5K, $3MM, $5MM, $7MM, and $9MM. The two club options ($10MM and $11MM) can each be bought out for $500K.
- Reds president and CEO Bob Castellini was the one driving the Votto deal, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick tweets. Other ownership groups have some concern over the ten-year deal, Crasnick adds.
- The Rangers are discussing a long-term deal with Ian Kinsler, and while the sides are in agreement on the contract length — six years — they haven’t yet found common ground in terms of contract value, according to Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Kinsler doesn’t want to negotiate after the season begins on Friday.
- Casey Close, the agent for Zack Greinke, and Brewers GM Doug Melvin will speak tomorrow to “fill each other in on where discussions stand,” the GM told Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. Greinke had been representing himself, but his new agent will handle talks from here on.
Mike Axisa contributed to this post.
The Mets are nearing a five-year extension with left-hander Jonathon Niese that figures to be worth $28.5MM or so based on Derek Holland's recent deal. Here's the latest on talks between the Mets and Niese:
- The Mets' most recent offer to Niese was worth less than Holland's $28.5MM extension, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
- The negotiations are progressing, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports (Twitter links). One source says the sides are "getting closer," so it's possible they'll agree to terms by Opening Day. Martino hears Niese's agent was talking to Mets GM Sandy Alderson today.
- Extending Niese would be a step in the right direction for the Mets, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post wrote this morning.
- The Mets’ proposal to Niese includes two option years, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports (Twitter links). This is to be expected, since the deals for Derek Holland, Trevor Cahill and Clay Buchholz all included two team option years as well.
- A Mets official suggested the team may platoon Jason Bay in left field if he's struggling six or seven weeks into the season, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. Team executives aren't discussing the idea yet and say it's too early to worry seriously about Bay, who has $32MM remaining on his contract with the Mets.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post wonders how much speed the Mets will have without Jose Reyes and Angel Pagan.
5:08pm: Niese's contract extension would be for five years, a source confirmed to Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). The two sides are still discussing dollars and a deal could be reached "quickly".
4:10pm: While nothing is official yet, the contract has a chance to be completed before Opening Day, a source with "direct knowledge" of the talks tells Andy Martino of the New York Daily News (on Twitter).
3:48pm: Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal tweets that the paramaters for the contract are in place, but that it'd be wrong to suggest that it's a done deal. Costa does say that a deal is "likely," however. Rubin echoes the sentiment in a followup tweet.
Rubin writes that Niese's contract is believed to be similar to the five-year, $28.5MM extension that Derek Holland signed with the Rangers last month. As Rubin points out, the two have similar service time to date. Niese, like Holland, was already under team control for four more seasons.
Niese posted a 4.40 ERA in 157 1/3 innings of work last season with solid rate stats of 7.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and a 51.5% groundball rate. He was the victim of some bad luck, as evidenced by an above average .333 BABIP and an abnormally low 67% strand rate. Stats such as FIP (3.36) and SIERA (3.42) suggest that his ERA could have been up to a full run lower.
The deal would likely represent the largest contract extension of general manager Sandy Alderson's tenure, as MLBTR's Extension Tracker shows. Previously, Alderson has agreed on smaller extensions with both Tim Byrdak and R.A. Dickey.
The Mets have expressed interest in Eric Young Jr. of the Rockies, according to Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com. Rubin's source indicated that the Mets may be able to obtain Young by sending Justin Turner to Colorado and that the teams continue discussing Jon Niese. However, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets that Turner's name hasn't come up yet.
Young, 26, has a .246/.324/.295 line with 15 extra base hits in 479 career plate appearances in three stints at the Major League level as an outfielder and second baseman. The Rockies' plans at second remain unclear, but the outfield has become crowded with the recent additions of Tyler Colvin and Michael Cuddyer.
The Rockies nearly traded Young to the Mariners during the Winter Meetings, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post (on Twitter). All signs point to a trade involving Young before Spring Training, Renck reports.
Wade Davis signed a multiyear extension with the Rays last week, though he's just one season into his MLB career. The deal is not without risk for Davis, since he could pitch like Ubaldo Jimenez and become a bargain for Tampa Bay, or for the Rays since Davis could get hurt, depriving them of a pitcher they need.
Here's a list of pitchers who could sign deals like the four-year, $12.6MM contract Tampa Bay completed with Davis. Like the Rays righty, these pitchers are on track to hit arbitration after 2012 and free agency after 2015 unless otherwise noted (age in parentheses):
- Mat Latos, Padres (23) – Latos was flat-out phenomenal last year and would be positioned to ask for more than Davis obtained with his record deal. The skill is there, so if the Padres believe in his health (he's now on the DL) and maturity, Latos would be an extension candidate.
- Wade LeBlanc, Padres (26) – LeBlanc, now in the minor leagues, is older than Latos and without the same front-of-the-rotation potential. His numbers, though comparable to the ones Davis has, don't scream 'lock me up,' so a deal seems unlikely.
- Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies (23) – The Rockies were aggressive with extensions this offseason, locking up Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, and others. Chacin, who struck out a batter per inning in 2010, wouldn't cost nearly as much as his more experienced teammates.
- Mike Leake, Reds (23) – If one organization was as extension happy as the Rockies this offseason it was the Reds. Leake struggled down the stretch last year and just barely made Cincinnati's rotation. They'll likely let the 2009 first rounder prove himself before committing eight figures to him.
- Jon Niese, Mets (24) – Niese has comparable numbers to Davis, with slightly more strikeouts per inning (7.4 K/9) and a higher ERA (4.33).
- Brian Matusz, Orioles (24) – Matusz compares to Davis statistically, but he could establish himself as a front-of-the-rotation starter with a breakout 2011 season, so he may be reluctant to lock himself in to pre-set salaries.
- Mitch Talbot, Indians (27) - Talbot has poor walk (4.3 BB/9) and strikeout (5.0 K/9) numbers so far in his career, so he doesn't seem like a likely extension candidate. The Indians did extend Fausto Carmona, who doesn't get many strikeouts, but they may prefer to let Talbot prove himself further before committing to him.
- Brett Cecil, Blue Jays (24) and Madison Bumgarner, Giants (21) both impressed in 2010. They're possible super two players, which means they may go to arbitration four times, once more than the starters above. If either Cecil or Bumgarner signed an extension, it wouldn't be completely parallel to the Davis deal.
It's possible that none of these pitchers will sign extensions, since long-term contracts for starters with fewer than two years of service time are uncommon. Some players don't mind going year to year in anticipation of big arbitration paydays and many teams prefer not to commit eight-figure deals to relatively unproven pitchers.
But some small market clubs, like the Athletics, Indians and Rays, have successfully completed a number of multiyear contracts for emerging pitchers. Teams looking to spend now and save later could take note and approach their best sophomore arms about long-term deals.
It seems like an odd thing to say about a team currently sitting at 67-71, but next year's version of the New York Mets may not have room at the inn for additional acquisitions.
Currently starting for the Mets are four pitchers who have certainly performed well enough to be relied upon in 2011, while a fifth, currently auditioning, has the best stuff of any of them. Furthermore, all five are under team control for next year.
Let's break the staff down:
Next year's Opening Day starter is likely to be Johan Santana, who has weathered an alarming early-season slide to become the Santana the Mets expected when they signed him to a six-year, $137.5MM contract after trading for him in in February 2008. Through the end of June, Santana pitched to a respectable 3.55 ERA, but that masked a strikeout rate on the season of just 5.7 K/9, down more than two per nine from his 2008-2009 levels.
Since July 1, however, Santana has a 2.37 ERA, with a far stronger 7.4 K/9. It appears that temporary dip may have been Santana recovering from elbow surgery – Santana appears to believe that's the case. It is certainly a relief to the Mets, who owe Santana $22.5MM in 2011, $24MM in 2012 and $25MM in 2013.
Meanwhile, the best ERA among the starters belongs not to Santana, but to R.A. Dickey, who actually began the year in Triple-A. And while it is tempting to believe a 2.91 ERA from a 35-year-old pitcher who entered the season with a career 5.43 ERA is a fluke, there are plenty of reasons to believe otherwise in this case.
For one thing, Dickey has only been relying on his knuckleball for five years and his minor league performance has improved steadily since. For another, his peripherals are quite good, particularly his 2.2 walks per nine innings, despite throwing a huge majority of knucklers, a notoriously hard pitch to control.
With his limited time in the major leagues, Dickey has yet to accrue enough service time for free agency, so the Mets control him merely by offering arbitration. The smart money here is on the two sides agreeing to a multi-year deal that avoids arbitration and provides Dickey with some security. Remember: Phil Niekro had 12 200-plus inning seasons after age 35. The clock is different with knuckleball pitchers.
Another mainstay for 2011 is Jon Niese, who has impressed all year long and now has a 3.85 ERA with 3.0 walks and 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings. His numbers are actually skewed by three recent poor starts; the Mets have left Niese in games until he looked fatigued, rather than managing his workload more cautiously.
The fourth horseman for the Mets is Mike Pelfrey, who seems to constantly be disappointing people who are waiting for him to be something other than a reliable innings-eater. Pelfrey's fluctuating ERA- 3.72 in 2008, 5.03 in 2009, 3.96 in 2010- is almost entirely a function of luck and defense, with peripherals staying ludicrously consistent in all three seasons. Even during his 10-2, 2.93 ERA start in 2010, his strikeout rate never reached six per nine innings. Pelfrey will almost certainly be offered arbitration and remain in the rotation in 2011.
That leaves the fifth spot, and Jenrry Mejia, the 20-year-old with the blazing fastball and intermittent command of his secondary pitches, aims to fill the role. He made his first major league start last Saturday, after his lone Triple-A start.
It is nearly impossible to know exactly what Mejia can give the Mets in 2011. His upside is certainly high, with terrific movement on his curveball and changeup to go along with a major league fastball that sits in the mid-nineties. But he is also an inexperienced pitcher with no track record of starting success, aside from a combined 17 starts above Single-A.
Still, with plenty of other holes and signals from the team that very little money will be spent this offseason, Mejia will likely get the opportunity to learn on the job.
One can imagine the only opportunities New York will have for starters in 2011 will be in the area of organizational depth. If Mejia falters, or one of the other four pitchers gets injured, the only Plan Bs available right now are the underwhelming Dillon Gee (who starts tonight) and Tobi Stoner, or the much-maligned Oliver Perez, who will head to the Mexican League after the season and try to find his fastball.