Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Twins.
Major League Signings
- Carl Pavano, SP: one year, $7MM. Accepted arbitration.
- Orlando Hudson, 2B: one year, $5MM.
- Jim Thome, DH: one year, $1.5MM.
- Clay Condrey, RP: one year, $900K.
- Total spend: $14.4MM.
Notable Minor League Signings
Extensions
- Brendan Harris, IF: two years, $3.2MM.
Trades and Claims
- Acquired SS J.J. Hardy from Brewers for CF Carlos Gomez
- Acquired P Chris Province from Red Sox for P Boof Bonser
Notable Losses
- Boof Bonser, Brian Buscher, Mike Redmond, Ron Mahay, Joe Crede, Carlos Gomez, Armando Gabino, Orlando Cabrera, R.A. Dickey, Philip Humber, Steve Tolleson, Jason Pridie, Bobby Keppel
Summary
For about $20MM and Carlos Gomez, Twins GM Bill Smith revamped his middle infield, retained a mid-rotation starter, added an excellent bench bat, and signed a groundballing middle reliever. On paper, Smith improved his team at a reasonable cost.
In Hardy, Smith traded for two seasons of the offseason's best available shortstop. Hudson should easily earn his salary, and might be able to top last year's Twins second base offensive output (.209/.302/.267) batting blindfolded. Pavano's '09 peripherals suggest he deserved an ERA around 4.00 as opposed to his actual 5.10 mark. Thome should come in handy; he hit .262/.383/.498 against righties last year.
The Twins' rotation looks respectable, with Kevin Slowey and Francisco Liriano likely to provide much more than last year's 227.3 innings of 5.42 ball. Does the lineup pack enough punch? CHONE projections suggest the Twins will score 850 runs. That's optimistic, since injuries are inevitable for all teams. Still, it's all relative, and the Twins' offense projects as the best in the division. Thanks to Smith's fine winter, the Twins are my AL Central favorite.
Adding $20m to your payroll gives any GM the ability to make an offseason look productive…
Tell that to Dayton Moore or Jim Hendry.
I agree, in most cases it should, but not always.
Don’t forget Ed Wade and his $15 million relief pitchers.
Don’t forget Ed Wade and his $15 million relief pitchers.
Also you can’t forget Brian Sabean.
Also you can’t forget Brian Sabean.
I just said it gives them the “ability”. I didn’t say they always take advantage of it 😉
Touche sir, touche.
Touche sir, touche.
I just said it gives them the “ability”. I didn’t say they always take advantage of it 😉
Don’t forget the Orioles offseason.
The Orioles will be an improved team in 2010… it’s just that the $33MM they spent won’t improve them enough to make a difference.They added about $24MM for this season and won’t contend anyway.
Still, earlier in the offseason there was a lot about the Orioles wanting to improve the quality of the product to show future free agents that they’re serious about contending. MacPhail feels that by adding another handful of wins through free agent spending, it will show progress and lure in more free agents.
I personally don’t like the philosophy, but at least there’s a reasoning behind the logic. Plus, it never hurts to have an arm like Mike Gonzalez on a cheap two-year deal around the trade deadline when teams starved for relievers will overpay. Same principle could apply to Tejada, especially with Josh Bell waiting in the wings.
Millwood is an expensive piece but offers stability, experience to share with young arms, and should net two draft picks at season’s end if he can be reasonably effective. At the very least, he should be a Type B.
Garrett Atkins… well… sometimes GMs just make bad moves. 🙂
The Orioles will not be able to spend their way into contention. If they are ever to win something they need to go the way of the Devil Rays. I do emphasise if b/c I don’t feel we’ll see the Orioles win in our lifetimes.
Kind of like Tim, I really do dislike the way he went about it though. Why not spend that money on a star like Holliday instead of spare parts that won’t be part of your future? I know you have holes, but the more recognition the better right? Would Teixeira be more inclined to sign if Holliday was signed there long term?
The Orioles will be an improved team in 2010… it’s just that the $33MM they spent won’t improve them enough to make a difference.They added about $24MM for this season and won’t contend anyway.
Still, earlier in the offseason there was a lot about the Orioles wanting to improve the quality of the product to show future free agents that they’re serious about contending. MacPhail feels that by adding another handful of wins through free agent spending, it will show progress and lure in more free agents.
I personally don’t like the philosophy, but at least there’s a reasoning behind the logic. Plus, it never hurts to have an arm like Mike Gonzalez on a cheap two-year deal around the trade deadline when teams starved for relievers will overpay. Same principle could apply to Tejada, especially with Josh Bell waiting in the wings.
Millwood is an expensive piece but offers stability, experience to share with young arms, and should net two draft picks at season’s end if he can be reasonably effective. At the very least, he should be a Type B.
Garrett Atkins… well… sometimes GMs just make bad moves. 🙂
Don’t forget the Orioles offseason.
Tell that to Dayton Moore or Jim Hendry.
I agree, in most cases it should, but not always.
Adding $20m to your payroll gives any GM the ability to make an offseason look productive…
Denard Span is the best!!!!!!!!!!
I really like the Twins off-season. I think that it was a lot to give Carl Pavano 7MM though.
Kevin Slowey really needs to be back to his first half of 2009 form. As for Liriano, hopefully his winter league wasn’t a fluke. That rotation could really really be good!
Question, doesn’t J.J. Hardy have this season left on his contract?
Denard Span is the best!!!!!!!!!!
I really like the Twins off-season. I think that it was a lot to give Carl Pavano 7MM though.
Kevin Slowey really needs to be back to his first half of 2009 form. As for Liriano, hopefully his winter league wasn’t a fluke. That rotation could really really be good!
Question, doesn’t J.J. Hardy have this season left on his contract?
I believe Hardy’s last arbitration is next year and we agreed on 5.4 million this year
Hardy’s a Twin through 2011 (last arb. year). 5.1 million cotract for 2010.
thanks, that was more off the top of my head.
thanks, that was more off the top of my head.
I believe Hardy’s last arbitration is next year and we agreed on 5.4 million this year
I still think 7M is too much for Pavano. He had one good season in 5 years and he deserves that kind of money? He should be living off low base salary and high incentive contracts for the rest of his career.
And no matter how sparkling his FIP was it doesn’t hide the fact that he is a hittable pitcher and his ERA will never live up to his FIP.
It was an arbitration case. That’s a significantly different situation than just going out on the market and spending $7m on the guy. The Twins front office could not accurately know the pricetag in the event Pavano accepted arbitration – and they could have simply done it in the hopes of getting comp when he took a multi-year deal elsewhere.
I don’t think you know how arbitration works. Yes he accepted arbitration, but he didn’t go to an arbitration hearing. He accepted a $7 mil deal that the twins offered.
Yes. Twins gave him that because it was better than risking losing the hearing.
That still doesn’t mean 1) they wanted him to accept arbitration or 2) they wanted to pay him $7m (obviously a figure somewhere between what he and the club wanted).
Therefore, point remains: its not like they just went out and signed him for $7m. They pursued him on as a gambit that just happened to cost $7m. Maybe offering arb was a mistake, but saying $7m was a mistake isn’t a fair statement.
I don’t see why this is being made into such a big deal. There’s no indication the move prevented them from signing another pitcher so who cares what they paid him?
Yes. Twins gave him that because it was better than risking losing the hearing.
That still doesn’t mean 1) they wanted him to accept arbitration or 2) they wanted to pay him $7m (obviously a figure somewhere between what he and the club wanted).
Therefore, point remains: its not like they just went out and signed him for $7m. They pursued him on as a gambit that just happened to cost $7m. Maybe offering arb was a mistake, but saying $7m was a mistake isn’t a fair statement.
I don’t think you know how arbitration works. Yes he accepted arbitration, but he didn’t go to an arbitration hearing. He accepted a $7 mil deal that the twins offered.
It was an arbitration case. That’s a significantly different situation than just going out on the market and spending $7m on the guy. The Twins front office could not accurately know the pricetag in the event Pavano accepted arbitration – and they could have simply done it in the hopes of getting comp when he took a multi-year deal elsewhere.
I still think 7M is too much for Pavano. He had one good season in 5 years and he deserves that kind of money? He should be living off low base salary and high incentive contracts for the rest of his career.
And no matter how sparkling his FIP was it doesn’t hide the fact that he is a hittable pitcher and his ERA will never live up to his FIP.
as a whitesox fan i would like to think they are the favorites in the central. but i respect the twins and they have potential to be a very good team, as do the white sox. the whitesox have the pitching and the wins have the offence, if only we could combine the team, ha. I do think this is a 2 team race, with the 3rd being more of hte indians and less of the tigers. But my questions is this..Tim do you think if the whitesox get adrian, hopefully without giving up beckham, that they would be the hands down favorites…with a potential line up of
Pierre(cf)
Gordon(2nd)
Adrian(1st)
Carlos(RF)
Konerko(DH)
AJ(C)
Rios(CF)
Teahan(3rd)
Alexi(ss)
as a whitesox fan i would like to think they are the favorites in the central. but i respect the twins and they have potential to be a very good team, as do the white sox. the whitesox have the pitching and the wins have the offence, if only we could combine the team, ha. I do think this is a 2 team race, with the 3rd being more of hte indians and less of the tigers. But my questions is this..Tim do you think if the whitesox get adrian, hopefully without giving up beckham, that they would be the hands down favorites…with a potential line up of
Pierre(cf)
Gordon(2nd)
Adrian(1st)
Carlos(RF)
Konerko(DH)
AJ(C)
Rios(CF)
Teahan(3rd)
Alexi(ss)
The biggest thing that makes this offseason stand out is that they lost virtually NOTHING from the 2009 Twins. Yes Gomez but he was riding the pine for the entire 2nd half of the year. So they added 5 players for 2010 to help out on the major league level without losing anyone already there contributing, ….that….is….good!
Says more about the quality of players they replaced.
Says more about the quality of players they replaced.
There is a reason they were able to give up “nothing” to get Hardy, and it isn’t Alcides Escobar.
There is a reason they were able to give up “nothing” to get Hardy, and it isn’t Alcides Escobar.
The biggest thing that makes this offseason stand out is that they lost virtually NOTHING from the 2009 Twins. Yes Gomez but he was riding the pine for the entire 2nd half of the year. So they added 5 players for 2010 to help out on the major league level without losing anyone already there contributing, ….that….is….good!
They didn’t really address that 3rd base issue – although Hudson puts both Punto and Harris over there (and Harris I think could handle the job with decent effect)…
They didn’t really address that 3rd base issue – although Hudson puts both Punto and Harris over there (and Harris I think could handle the job with decent effect)…
I think a trade for Mike Lowell makes sense. That lefty-heavy lineup could use a decent right handed slugger.
I think a trade for Mike Lowell makes sense. That lefty-heavy lineup could use a decent right handed slugger.
If anyone on this staff emerges as the ace, the Twins will take the division. The offense looks potent, and the bullpen is solid, but the rotation has question marks.
If anyone on this staff emerges as the ace, the Twins will take the division. The offense looks potent, and the bullpen is solid, but the rotation has question marks.
Twins quietly had one of the best off-seasons in baseball. I really like everything they did outside of Pavano. Should have let him walk. That said, it was only a slight overpay. Thome and Hudson will both prove out to be great signings. Hardy will revert back to his pre-2009 form.
Just a good all around off-season. Just because the people they signed weren’t the big names, folks have written them off while gushing about teams like the Mariners.
Twins quietly had one of the best off-seasons in baseball. I really like everything they did outside of Pavano. Should have let him walk. That said, it was only a slight overpay. Thome and Hudson will both prove out to be great signings. Hardy will revert back to his pre-2009 form.
Just a good all around off-season. Just because the people they signed weren’t the big names, folks have written them off while gushing about teams like the Mariners.
I really hate how people say Mauer’s season is unrepeatable…
The man had back surgery in the off-season, missed ST and the first month, had to bat in the 2 hole or behind a man in the 2 hole who just wasn’t adequate.
Alright, he’s moving outside, I’ll give you that. BUT, the kid played outside all his life before now, and only struck out once in high school.
So, please don’t say unrepeatable. Not likely, okay. But, it just bothers me when people say unrepeatable.
PS: The whitesox pitching is many times better than the twins. (Establish stability takes the cake every time.) Pavano, Baker, Slowey, Liriano have all been injured and come back from injury worse.
Twins will win the World Series though.
One key point that hasn’t been mentioned here is the Twins move from the dome into the outdoors. That cannot be discounted as the dome gave a decided edge over their opponents for various reasons, not least of which being their primary competition – the White Sox.
What kind of difference do you see that making? 0.8 games maybe?
Tough to say & only time will tell really. The Twins have crushed the Sox in HHH’s house & I’m certain that if the coin flip a couple years ago went the other way the Twins would have been in the playoffs & not the Sox.
There were always guys from other teams not familiar w/ the place who would lose a ball in the garbage bag & the ability for the Twins to chop the ball off the concrete & utilise that quickness & small ball style. Now a lot of that changes.
The roof/baggy (RF) were overrated by the media. In all honesty, in watching every home game since 2001, I’ve only seen either of them come into play all of about 15 times.
And 6 of them were to the Twins disadvantage. It’s probably effected the final result of 1-2 games in the past decade. Anecdotally of course, but it’s probably not much different than the various unique dimensions of any other field and the frequency they lead to a misplayed ball.
The chop-hitting-factor of the concrete will certainly make Punto worse… but like twins33 points out below, there’s not anyone else in the current lineup who has the statistics to back up the notion that an outdoor field will be a big detriment.
Yep, roof thing was definitely overrated. I only remember two opposing players being messed up by the roof last year. One was a Pirate and the other was a Tiger. The Pirates don’t play here much so that was understandable and I think the Tiger guy was a rookie or fairly new to the league. If Delmon Young was telling the truth, he said he had problems with the roof every day. So it was just as much of a disadvantage for us too. Young is a terrible fielder, hopefully part of that can be explained by him not being able to see the ball off the bat.
And I agree about the chop. Punto is likely the only one to suffer, maybe Casilla, but he’s not going to be a starter. Since the new turf came in, I can safely say that the Twins only did the chop thing a lot one year out of six. The main guy to do it was Luis Castillo.
Right. The “Piran-yas” of 2006 may have utilized bunting and chop hitting, thereby giving the team a reputation for it, but there’s simply not any of those on the starting roster anymore outside Punto.
Heck, and it’s not even a sure thing Punto is a starter this year, he may be relegated to his rightful utility role again.
And even if the small ball factor was at play… isn’t grass more conducive to bunting, since it slows the balls and keeps it from getting to the pitcher or CI too quickly?
I would assume so, yes. And Punto couldn’t really even bunt last year. That 2006 team made it look like that’s what the Twins did all the time to win, but they really don’t and haven’t. The new turf didn’t bounce at all like the old turf did. Not even close, but that’s the how people portray the Twins. “They only win because of the Dome.” Which, for the hitters at least, really isn’t true. We’ll see for the pitchers, hopefully they are just more comfortable playing at home, which is probably true for most pitchers/players.
The Twins should win this division based on a consistent team defense and steady offense with a very solid pen, the starting pitching will be fine if it avoids injury. The primary competition of the the White Sox may have a strong starting staff but has nothing in the pen other than Thornton, Jenks is in rapid decline and Putz is a joke. The real problem is the lineup has no one that will take a walk or looks at many pitches, giving apposing starters extra innings against them. And no team in the majors is worse defensively, starting with Pierre and Quentin (Herman Munster on roids) in the outfield, they may kill a very good (defensively) Rios in center and moving to the worst infield in the majors, Teahen, AJ, Ramirez and Gordon is as bad as it gets.
If the Twins stay healthy, it should be an easy division title in 2010.
I don’t really get when people say that the Twins will be way worse outdoors. I checked the career stats on all the hitters and most play the same inside vs. outside and some actually play better outdoors. Cuddyer and Punto are the only Twins hitters who play much worse outside. Span and Harris play slightly better indoors. Morneau and Young play better outside. The rest of the hitters play the same either way. If the pattern continues Morneau/Young should easily cancel out Cuddyer/Punto, probably even better than just cancelling them out.
I don’t think the hitters are going to be a concern at all in the switch. It’s the pitchers that are going to have to worry. The Twins pitchers play much better in the Dome. I guess we’ll find out if that becomes “they just play better at home Dome or not” which wouldn’t be surprising, but rather normal or if the indoor factor really helped them.
The only advantage the Twins really had was the roof sometimes, most teams weren’t affected by it. I’d say over the years, the Twins have been messed up by the roof just as often as the opposing team. It doesn’t happen very often either way. The new turf was still kind of hard but it wasn’t concrete like the old turf. It had more true hops, but I don’t see it being that big of an advantage. Old turf, yeah. And then the noise factor, but I don’t see that being as big of a deal in baseball. It energizes our team, but I don’t really see how it could hurt the other team. It’s not like they’re yelling plays to each other like football.
How about the Twins making a deal with Boston for Lowell to play 3rd. He says he feels great and the Red Sox would eat a good chunk of the contract. Minnesota would then have one of the best defensive infields in the A.L.
I’d make the deal if Punto was going to Boston to be their utility infielder.
I’ve heard this brought up before. I go back and forth with it. I’d certainly like his bat in the lineup and his defense has been good. I worry that he’ll be injured for another 50 games. Even if he isn’t, he’s slow. If he gets on base, he might be clogging them. The Twins need to get faster, not slower. This is already the slowest Twins team that I can think of as far as recent memory goes.
I see the biggest reason for the Twins not going after him is because he’s kind of a Crede type with the injuries. There is no guarantee that he’ll play more than 100-115 games. The reason they give for not wanting to re-sign Crede is because they think that will be like playing with a 24 man roster rather than a 25. There’s the nagging injuries that take you out 3-4 times a week because of age and then the injuries that take you out for awhile.
I don’t see the Twins wanting to do that since it already feels like they have a strapped bench. Thome/backup catcher/Punto or Harris/Casilla. At least that’s the way it looks right now. The Twins would have to send someone the other way. And it likely wouldn’t be the guys who should/could go. I really don’t want to get rid of Casilla, because of his age, though he’s greatly disappointed me nearly his entire time in the big leagues. I’m still hoping there’s something in him, probably being too optomistic though. And I don’t see Punto or Tolbert going. I don’t think the Sox will just give him away, they’ll pay most of his contract but I’m sure they don’t want crap in return.
I wouldn’t be opposed to it, but there are several concerns.
If your worried about the Twins team speed, wait for the first time you see Jim Thome chugging around second, digging for third.
You won’t know if you should laugh or cry.
I know, that’s one reason why getting Lowell would hurt. He’d just be another old, slow guy. I’m hoping Thome is faster than Frank Thomas. Thomas has to be the slowest guy I’ve ever seen. I have seen Thome run, but only in games against us. He was slow, but I don’t remember him being Thomas slow. Thomas always looked like he had two pianos strapped to his back.
I know, that’s one reason why getting Lowell would hurt. He’d just be another old, slow guy. I’m hoping Thome is faster than Frank Thomas. Thomas has to be the slowest guy I’ve ever seen. I have seen Thome run, but only in games against us. He was slow, but I don’t remember him being Thomas slow. Thomas always looked like he had two pianos strapped to his back.