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Jays To Sign Thon For $1.5MM, Cenas For $700K

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The Blue Jays have agreed to sign fifth-round pick Dickie Thon for $1.5MM, according to ESPN.com's Keith Law. Now that the Blue Jays have pried Thon away from his commitment to Rice, they have agreed to sign six of their top ten selections, though top pick Deck McGuire remains unsigned.

The Blue Jays won’t likely announce their agreement with Thon until August 16th or so, the deadline for signing draft picks. Otherwise, other draftees would be able to use Thon’s above-slot bonus as leverage. A $1.5MM bonus is mid-first-round money; no fifth-round pick signed for more than $680K last year, according to Baseball America.

The Blue Jays also signed 16-year-old third baseman Gabriel Cenas today. Baseball America's Ben Badler reports that the Jays signed the Venezuelan for $700K. The Blue Jays obtained Cenas through free agency (not through the draft), but both moves show that the club is spending aggressively on young players under GM Alex Anthopoulos. The Blue Jays reportedly signed Venezuelan righty Adonis Cardona soon after the July signing period opened.

Be sure to check out our complete list of top draft picks to sign.

Jack Of All Trades: Gary Sheffield

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How does a player rack up 509 home runs, post a career OPS+ of 140 (better than Reggie Jackson, Chuck Klein and Al Kaline), make nine All-Star teams…and get traded five times?

Ask Gary Sheffield. His career has been a fantastic one, and if he is denied the Hall of Fame, it will likely be due to the perceived taint around his numbers. But Sheffield has also been part of the hot stove for as long as he's been a household name. Let's take a look at the blockbusters involving Sheff – a combined five trades totaling 25 players.

  • On March 29, 1992, a disgruntled Sheffield was traded by the Milwaukee Brewers with minor leaguer Geoff Kellogg (not MLB umpire Jeff Kellogg) to San Diego in exchange for Ricky Bones, Matt Mieske and Jose Valentin. While none of the three managed a career close to that of Sheffield, all three went on to be valuable. Bones became a mainstay in the Milwaukee rotation over the next four years, pitching to a 4.40 ERA. Mieske delivered 44 home runs over the next five seasons in Milwaukee as a power bat off the bench. And Valentin spent eight seasons in Milwaukee as an extremely underrated player due to his batting average. Valentin was a tremendous glove at shortstop, and delivered a respectable OPS+ of 89 over those eight seasons, posting double figures in home runs six times.
  • Sheffield, however, wore out his welcome in San Diego, despite winning the batting title in 1992 and posting a season line of .330/.385/.580. No, really. So on June 26, 1993, the Padres sent him to Florida along with Rich Rodriguez for Andres Berumen, Trevor Hoffman and Jose Martinez. Berumen and Martinez made no impact, while Hoffman, of course, became the all-time saves leader. Still, it is hard to say that San Diego got the equal of Sheffield's remaining career – not that Florida did, either.
  • The Marlins did get a 156 OPS+ over six seasons. But when the post-1997 firesale commenced, the Marlins traded Sheffield on May 14, 1998 with Manuel Barrios, Bobby Bonilla, Jim Eisenreich and Charles Johnson to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Mike Piazza and Todd Zeile. Florida then sent Piazza onto the Mets for prospects. And while it cost Los Angeles the best-hitting catcher in baseball history, Sheffield performed extremely well for them: a 160 OPS+ over four seasons, actually better than his performance for Florida.
  • Still, the Dodgers tired of Sheffield as well, and dealt the 33-year-old to Atlanta on January 15, 2002 in exchange for Andrew Brown, Brian Jordan and Odalis Perez. Brown, a top pitching prospect, never amounted to much, though Jordan gave the Dodgers a 116 OPS+ over two seasons, and Perez pitched to an ERA+ of 127 and made the All Star game in the first of five largely successful seasons with Los Angeles. Sheffield? All he did was post a 151 OPS+ in his two years with Atlanta, then signed with the New York Yankees before the 2004 season.
  • The haul New York got from the Tigers for Sheffield on November 10, 2006 shows that Sheffield was still a valuable bat late in his career. Though Sheffield was entering his age-38 season, Detroit traded Kevin Whelan, Anthony Claggett and Humberto Sanchez for Sheffield. Sanchez in particular was a highly-touted prospect, though injuries wrecked his career. But for the first time, a team dealing for Sheffield got less-than-superstar production. In two seasons with Detroit, Sheffield had an OPS+ of just 105. The Tigers released him, and even after an OPS+ of 118 with the Mets in 2009, no one wanted Sheffield in 2010.

Though he was a far better player, Sheffield's tale reminds one of Dave Kingman – a prodigious home run hitter who couldn't find a job after hitting 35 home runs in his final season. Kingman was also traded three times and sold once in his career. Overall, Sheffield's career, on some level, has to be considered a disappointment- an astounding thing to say about a player with so much production.

Phillies Discussing Werth Trades

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As they search for a proven starter, the Phillies are discussing Jayson Werth trades with “a lot of teams,” according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Twitter links). Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported yesterday that the Phillies would likely consider trading Werth if they fall from contention. The Phils are 43-40, three games out of a playoff spot, but it appears that they are open to trading Werth now.

Werth, 31, is about to hit free agency and his projected Type A ranking likely boosts his trade value. Werth's team will probably be able to obtain two top picks in next year's draft by offering arbitration. But Werth would have a big impact before next season. He is hitting .279/.365/.518 with 13 homers and plays solid defense in right field.

The Giants, Padres, Red Sox and Rays are among the teams that could be discussing a deal with the Phillies, though that is speculation on my part.

What The Elias Rankings Mean For Trade Candidates

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Many of this year's trade candidates share a distinguishing characteristic: they are about to become free agents. After the season, their teams will decide whether to offer arbitration and have a chance at top picks in next year's draft. A player's ranking can contribute to or detract from his trade value, so let's take a look at some of this year's trade candidates and see where they place under our reverse-engineered Elias rankings. 

We'll start with some trade candidates who project as Type A free agents. If these players decline arbitration offers to sign elsewhere, their former teams will receive two top picks in the 2011 draft. These players are sometimes more inclined to accept arbitration, since their Type A status can intimidate would-be suitors who don't want to surrender a pick (just ask Juan Cruz and Orlando Hudson).

It's important to note that teams don't necessarily give first rounders up to sign the players below. The first 15 picks are protected and sometimes teams sign more than one Type A player. Say the Red Sox sign Adam Dunn (75.8 ranking) and Scott Downs (74.6 ranking) and both were offered arb. The Nationals would get Boston's top pick and the Blue Jays would get their second-best pick because Dunn ranks higher than Downs. In that instance, Downs only costs the Red Sox a second rounder.

Once a team signs one Type A free agent, the cost of signing a second and a third drops, since the club is giving up lesser picks. Rafael Soriano (88.9), Vladimir Guerrero (88.6), Carl Crawford (85.5), Javier Vazquez (79.0) and Adrian Beltre (78.9) could all get arbitration offers this winter, so Type As, especially lower-ranked players, don't always cost a first rounder. With that in mind, here are some trade candidates who currently have Type A status:

  • Cliff Lee (91.8) – He is getting an arbitration offer and turning it down. Lee's Type A status boosts his trade value.
  • Jayson Werth (86.0) – Same goes for Werth.
  • David DeJesus (78.3)- Matt Klaassen of FanGraphs argued yesterday that the Royals shouldn't offer arbitration, since DeJesus would accept. It's entirely possible that the Royals can get more value for DeJesus in a trade, but I don't think DeJesus would necessarily accept arbitration. He will easily be a top-five outfielder if his team lets him hit free agency instead of picking up his $6MM option. And if he accepts? The team has an above-average outfielder on an affordable one-year deal.
  • Adam Dunn (75.8) – He will get an arbitration offer and will probably turn it down. Dunn's Type A status boosts his trade value.
  • Scott Downs (74.6) – Earlier this week, I suggested the Blue Jays could offer Downs arbitration and either collect the picks or pay him $5MM or so in 2011. There's a good chance that Downs accepts an offer of arbitration, but the chance at two top picks probably makes that a risk worth taking. 
  • Miguel Tejada (74.4) – It's hard to imagine teams forfeiting picks to sign Tejada. It seems unlikely that a team would offer arbitration. Tejada's Type A status doesn't affect his trade value (and he is only a couple points away from becoming a Type B).
  • Ted Lilly (74.3) – Lilly will be a top free agent starter after the season, so the Cubs will likely offer arbitration. Lilly's Type A status boosts his trade value.

And here are some players who currently project as Type B free agents. These players will bring their former teams a supplementary round pick if they decline arbitration to sign elsewhere. But teams don't have to give up their picks to sign Type Bs, which makes these players appealing as free agents.

  • John Buck – J. P. Arencibia is Toronto's catcher of the future, but it's easy to imagine the Blue Jays (or another team) offering Buck arbitration after the season. It worked last year, when the Jays got a supplemental rounder for losing Rod Barajas. Buck wouldn't make much through arbitration, so his Type B status boosts his trade value.
  • Jose Guillen – It's extremely hard to imagine the Royals offering arbitration. His Type B status does not affect his trade value.
  • Mike Lowell – Same goes for Lowell.
  • Kevin Millwood – And for Millwood.
  • Jason Frasor – Frasor makes only $2.65MM this year, so he wouldn't be making an overwhelming amount even if he accepted arbitration. Obtaining a pick for Frasor would be a plus, so his Type B status helps his trade value.
  • Derrek Lee – Given Lee's struggles and salary, it's hard to imagine his team offering arbitration.
  • Cristian Guzman – Guzman makes $8MM this year and though players aren't guaranteed raises via this kind of arbitration, Guzman isn't even worth his current salary on the open market. An arbitration offer seems unlikely, so his status doesn't affect his trade value.
  • Octavio Dotel –  Like Frasor, Dotel could see an offer of arbitration, depending on how he finishes the season, so his Type B status helps his trade value. The Pirates have a $4MM option for Dotel that becomes mutual if he is traded.
  • Aaron Heilman – It seems unlikely that the D'Backs would feel comfortable offering Heilman arbitration, given his inconsistent performance in 2010, so his status doesn't help his trade value.

Olney On Dunn, Blue Jays, Uggla, Hart, Cardinals

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As the rumors keep swirling around Adam Dunn, ESPN.com's Buster Olney says he believes the Nationals should consider locking the slugger up if they can do so for $44-48MM. That seems like a lot, but Dunn, who hit three homers last night, is as consistent as it gets and home run hitters are harder to find these days. Here are the rest of Olney's rumors:

  • Rival teams wouldn’t be surprised to see the Blue Jays become one of the more aggressive sellers this summer. They could offer relievers, like Kevin Gregg, Jason Frasor and Scott Downs, plus All-Star catcher John Buck and MLB home run leader Jose Bautista.
  • Olney’s sources say the Marlins and Rockies would match up well for a Dan Uggla deal if the Marlins fall from contention.
  • The Brewers and Giants started talking about a Corey Hart trade last week. The Brewers will likely demand a lot for Hart, but it appears that talks have already begun. 
  • Cardinals GM John Mozeliak says the team will explore starting pitching options, but could add a bat. "I just don't know if I can do both," Mozeliak said.

Poll: Best Free Agent Signing Of The Winter

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After voting on the best free agents deals for hitters and pitchers, it's time to combine the top vote getters from each poll and determine the best free agent signing of all. This week's results suggest Vladimir Guerrero and Andy Pettitte are the favorites, but let's see how the voting turns out.

Which free agent signing has worked out best in 2010?

Click here to take the survey and here to view the results.

Cardinals Sign Mike MacDougal

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The Cardinals, who have blown two consecutive late-inning leads, signed reliever Mike MacDougal, according to Brian Walton of FOXSportsMidwest.com. The Cardinals are MacDougal's third organization of the year. The Marlins signed him in February and released him a month later. He then signed with the Nationals and pitched in the minors before opting out of his deal last week.

In 22 minor league innings this year, the 33-year-old right-hander has allowed 26 hits and 13 walks, striking out 13 for a 5.32 ERA. MacDougal, who represented the Royals in the 2003 All-Star game, pitched for the White Sox and Nationals last year.

Cliff Lee Rumors: Wednesday

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The Cliff Lee trade talk started intensifying yesterday, as the Twins, Mets, Yankees, Rangers, Phillies and Tigers now have a new suitor to out-bid: the Rays. Not only are the Rays on the periphery of the Lee sweepstakes, they are ready to add payroll and appear willing to part with B.J. Upton. The Yankees are confident that they can jump in and pry Lee away from their divisional foes, but let's not rule out the Yanks' crosstown rivals. Here is the latest on Cliff Lee, with more rumors to come throughout the day:

  • MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan says that the Rangers are working hard to acquire Lee, but nothing is imminent. Texas has plenty of minor league talent to offer, but they don't appear to be willing to move Tanner Scheppers or Martin Perez according to Sullivan. Derek Holland, Blake Beavan, Chris Davis, Justin Smoak, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia could all be fair game.  Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram says the Mariners "inquired about the availability" of Davis and Saltalamacchia.  Righty Alexi Ogando is said to be on the Mariners radar, though "there is some resistance to include him in a deal" on the Rangers' side. 
  • Morosi expands on his earlier tweet, saying that the Reds and Mariners have exchanged names "in preliminary fashion," though the two sides have yet to exchange firm proposals. One GM called Cincinnati a "sleeper" in the Lee sweepstakes.
  • CSNNE.com's Sean McAdam checked on the status of Boston's interest in Lee earlier today, and heard that the asking price was too high (Twitter links). Seattle wants a "stud catcher" close to the bigs, which the Red Sox simply don't have.
  • Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune gets the impression that the Mariners aren't close to moving Lee, at least not to the Twins. He was also told that the two sides haven't exchanged official proposals, and that the Ramos-Hicks talk is "pure speculation."
  • The Mariners are seeking a “mammoth return” for Lee, according to Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. One executive interested in the left-hander said the Mariners made a “crazy ask,” demanding an even better package than Wilson Ramos and Aaron Hicks.
  • FOX reports that the Twins offered Ramos and Kevin Slowey for Lee. At the moment, the Twins, Mets, Yankees and Rangers are most actively engaged with the Mariners in trade talks.
  • The Mariners are calling teams back and telling them that it will take two blue-chip prospects plus a third young player to acquire Lee, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com.
  • Two scouts tell Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that third base prospect Juan Francisco would be the Reds' best trade chip, not Yonder Alonso (Twitter link).
  • ESPN.com’s Buster Olney hears that the Yankees are not engaged in trade talks for Lee now. They are confident they could acquire the left-hander, but do not intend to deal for him. Olney says the Twins are the favorites to acquire Lee, followed by the Reds, the Rays, the Mets, the Rangers and the field.
  • The Mets officials who have spoken to Joel Sherman of the New York Post don’t seem concerned that the Twins are the perceived frontrunners for Lee. The perception within the game is that the Mariners are leaning more toward scouting than number crunching, and the Mets believe that will work in their favor.

Elias Rankings Update

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After the season the Elias Sports Bureau will take all players over the 2009-10 period, divide them into five groups for each league, and rank them based on various statistics.  Then each player will be labeled a Type A, B, or none.  Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).

Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  Here's a look at how the players rank for the period beginning with the 2009 season running through July 6th, 2010.  The Google spreadsheet below has separate tabs for each position group.  The players have about three more months to change these rankings.  You can also go directly to the Google spreadsheet here and download the rankings in Excel here.

Odds & Ends: Padres, Young, Diamondbacks, Yankees

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Some links on the night Atlanta became the NL's first 50-win team…

  • Dan Hayes of The North County Times says (via Twitter) the international market has been slow for the Padres, and he doesn't expect any "major splashes." San Diego did sign Duanel Jones for $900K back in January.
  • Meanwhile, AOL FanHouse's Tom Krasovic sheds some light on the insurance on Chris Young's contract. The Padres' righty will earn $6.25MM this year, though he made just one start before a shoulder issue forced him to the disabled list.
  • MLB.com's Jason Beck and Alex DiFilippo report that the Tigers have signed their sixth through eight round draft picks. 
  • The Diamondbacks have signed 16-year-old Venezuelan center fielder Yorman Garcia to a six-figure bonus, reports Baseball America's Ben Badler.
  • ESPN's Buster Olney says that the Yankees are currently focusing on adding a veteran player who can play third base and provide some power (Twitter links). Alex Rodriguez has been dealing with an on-and-off hip issue all season.
  • Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com tweets that it is possible the Red Sox will pursue Chris Snyder after the season, though he doesn't think they'll go after him before the deadline.
  • MLB.com's Peter Gammons tells us what to watch out for in the second half of the season, specifically with regards to the trade deadline and August 16th draft signing deadline.
  • MASNSports.com's Ben Goessling reports that the Nationals have adjusted their plan to manage Stephen Strasburg's innings this season. The phenom will now remain on a regular schedule and be shut down when the time comes in September.
  • The Athletics have called up righthander Ross Wolf according to a team press release. Oakland acquired Ross from the Orioles in exchange for Jake Fox late last month.

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