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Minor Deal, Major Impact: Unheralded Moves Pay Off

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The Yankees probably wouldn't be in the ALCS if they hadn't spent big on Mark Teixeira and C.C. Sabathia. The Giants probably wouldn't be in the NLCS if they hadn't drafted Buster Posey and Tim Lincecum. But less celebrated moves also contributed to the success of the four teams in the LCS. Here's a closer look at four acquisitions that have shaped this year's pennant race:

  • As I wrote in September, the Giants' decision to sign Pat Burrell to a minor league deal changed the NL West from that point on. Not only did the Giants get 18 home runs and a .266/.364/.509 line from the slugger, they kept him away from the Padres and kept their division rivals out of the playoffs. This is about as impactful as a minor league deal gets.
  • When the Yankees signed Marcus Thames to a minor league deal, they probably weren't expecting him to hit .288/.350/.491, but that's exactly what he did. Brian Cashman deserves credit for adding Thames to Joe Girardi's bench.
  • Wilson Valdez, who signed a minor league deal with the Phillies last fall, didn't hit like Burrell or Thames, but he played second when Chase Utley was injured and short when Jimmy Rollins got hurt. He didn't hit badly, either, posting a .258/.306/.360 line.
  • None of the Rangers minor league deals (Alex Cora, Endy Chavez, Mark Prior and others) made a difference at the major league level this year, but a look back at GM Jon Daniels' first Rule 5 draft reveals a decision that's looking smart now: the Rangers plucked Alexi Ogando from the A's in the 2005 Rule 5 draft. The right-hander has yet to allow a run in two postseason appearances, after posting a 1.30 ERA in the regular season.

 

What They Were Saying: NL West GMs

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The NL West has a few of baseball's longest-tenured general managers and one of the game's newest. Here's what they were saying about the group back when they got their first GM jobs: 

Jed Hoyer

“Hoyer, 35, clearly is among the new generation of young general managers who put a great deal of stock in statistics and quantitative analysis, but he's also said to place an equal emphasis on scouting. Perhaps most importantly, he has experience as an assistant GM under baseball's true Boy Wonder, Red Sox ramrod Theo Epstein.” – Chris Jenkins, The San Diego Union-Tribune, October 25th, 2009 

Ned Colletti

“Colletti, 50, has a reputation of being an old-school executive, having learned the trade under hard-bitten Giant General Manager Brian Sabean. [Former Dodgers GM Paul] DePodesta, 32, represented the trend of young Ivy League-educated executives who are making their way into front offices.” – Steve Henson, The Los Angeles Times, November 16th, 2005

Dan O’Dowd

“O'Dowd, 41, oversaw the Indians' farm department from 1988 to 1992 and spent six years as the Indians director of baseball operations and assistant general manager. He renounced the final four years of a five-year, $1.5MM contract a year ago to pursue a general manager's job, initially interviewing but coming up short in Baltimore, the organization he worked in for five years before moving to Cleveland.” – Tracy Ringolsby, The Rocky Mountain News, September 21st, 1999

Brian Sabean

“Sabean emphatically said he will have the final say in all baseball matters, which will start this week with the expected changes in the coaching staff after a series of meetings with Manager Dusty Baker. Sabean was hired by [former GM Bob] Quinn as an assistant G.M. and director of scouting and player personnel and made such an impression in rebuilding the Giants' farm system that three teams sought permission to interview him as a G.M., [Managing General Partner Peter] Magowan said.” – Mark Gonzales, The San Jose Mercury News, October 1st, 1996

Kevin Towers

“Bright, personable and a Padre through and through – he was the organization's first-round draft choice in 1982 – Towers looks like a good hire. Any time you believe you have the right prospect in-house, it cuts down considerably on the education process. Kevin knows this organization – and what's needed – as well as anybody. And Towers is a former pitcher. You can talk all you want, but spotting good young arms is what makes a successful general manager.” Nick Canepa – The San Diego Union-Tribune, November 18th, 1995

 

El Duque Intends To Pitch In 2011

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Orlando Hernandez hasn't pitched in the majors for three years, but he intends to play in 2011, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson (on Twitter). The Cuban right-hander has tried to reach the majors in each of the past two seasons without making it higher than Triple-A. But even at 45 years old, the former playoff hero believes he has the stuff to pitch in the major leagues.

Hernandez's minor league numbers suggest he may have what it takes to pitch at the highest level. He has stuck out more than a batter per inning at each one of the four minor league stops he has made over the course of the past two seasons. His ERA has never been above 2.45 in that time, but he has logged just 26.2 innings, so the sample size is small.

The Rangers, who signed Hernandez last year, and the Nationals, who signed him this year, did not call him up despite his numbers. If anyone can match Jamie Moyer's late-career success, it could be El Duque, who has never relied on an overpowering fastball and has always had a deceptive delivery.

Darvish Intends To Stay In Japan

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Yu Darvish, the 24-year-old right-hander who has intrigued MLB teams for years, says he expects to play in Japan next year. He said on his personal blog that he's staying put according to Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times (via Twitter). Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker translates Darvish’s statement.

"Next year … I’ll be wearing a Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters uniform," Darvish wrote.

Earlier in the fall, some suggested that the Nippon Ham Fighters would post Darvish and make him available to MLB teams. That would likely have made Darvish one of the most highly coveted starters available, after Cliff Lee and possibly Zack Greinke. Darvish did not post an ERA above 2.00 his first four seasons in Japan and he struck out more than a batter per inning with an above-average walk rate (2.1 BB/9) during that period.

Odds & Ends: Greinke, Marlins, McGwire, Daniels

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As Cliff Lee continues his domination of the Yankees, here's some news from around baseball…

Bradley Open To Wedge’s Hiring

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One of the questions surrounding the Mariners' hire of Eric Wedge as their new manager was how (or if) Wedge could co-exist with Milton Bradley.  Larry Stone of the Seattle Times recaps their checkered history, stemming from a 2004 situation when Wedge pulled Bradley from a spring training game, Bradley got upset, and then was dealt to Los Angeles a few days later.

Wedge made it clear to Seattle management that he had moved past the incident, however, and it appears that Bradley also wants to move on.  Stone heard from a Mariners official who revealed two texts sent by Bradley praising the club's hire: "Whatever took place was six or seven years ago and I'm over it" and "[Wedge] was a disciplinarian and I felt our team lacked discipline last year. Hopefully, he instills some of that.''

As Stone pointed out in his original post, however, Bradley doesn't appear to have much of a choice.  His options are to either make up with Wedge and play out the season, or else get released.  Bradley would still get the $12MM he's owed for 2011, but the Mariners are committed to paying him anyway and Bradley would be burning bridges with yet another franchise.  Stone notes that Bradley is all-but-untradeable unless the M's agree to pay most of the contract or deal Bradley for another bad contract, a la their original Carlos Silva swap.

Stone brings up Pittsburgh as one potential trade partner for the Mariners, though surely one that would require the Mariners to cover Bradley's contract.  Neal Huntington is a long-time supporter of Bradley and might be one of the few GMs willing to add Bradley to the roster.  Bradley's injury history makes him a bad fit for the NL, however, since he wouldn't be able to handle playing the outfield.  A player with Bradley's baggage is also not the kind of veteran influence that the Pirates would want to bring to their young clubhouse.

Astros Notes: Crawford, Offseason Needs, Payroll

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The Rangers might be in the heat of the ALCS, but let's not forget about the Lone Star State's other pro baseball team.  Here are a few pieces of Astros news from the team's senior director of digital media, Alyson Footer…

  • While Carl Crawford is a Houston native and a childhood friend of Astros outfielder Michael Bourn, Footer says the odds are "slim to none" of the Astros pursuing the free agent this winter.  Crawford would absorb a quarter of Houston's payroll, and would cost the rebuilding team a draft pick (though not its 11th-overall first-round pick, which is protected).
  • The team may consider changes at second base and shortstop.  Jeff Keppinger is a safe bet to start at second next year, but neither Tommy Manzella or Angel Sanchez are settled at short.  Footer says the Astros will be looking for a utility infielder.
  • Other needs are a fifth starter and a left-handed hitting platoon partner for Jason Michaels in left field.
  • Footer says the payroll will be "somewhat lower than the $93 million it was when the season started, and higher than the $50-some million it was when the season ended."  According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, Houston has a bit more than $41MM committed to next year's payroll, but that's not counting arbitration raises for Bourn, Hunter Pence or Wandy Rodriguez, among others.  Given that Houston finally seems to be committed to a youth movement, it's hard to see next year's payroll topping $80MM at the most.

Discussion: Jimmy Rollins’ Next Contract

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Much has been written about what the Yankees will do with Derek Jeter’s pending free agency and how much the Yankee captain will earn even though he’s coming off a down year and may not be able to continue for much longer at the shortstop position.  The catch, however, is that nobody expects Jeter to play anywhere but in New York and even if the Yankees overpay him, they can afford it for a franchise icon.

This scenario could replay itself in the 2011-12 offseason, though with more dramatic consequences.  Jimmy Rollins will be a free agent after 2011 and while Rollins is almost as beloved in Philadelphia as Jeter is in the Big Apple, Rollins’ sharper decline may give the Phillies a tough choice to make next winter.

Rollins is coming off an injury-plagued 2010 campaign that saw him only hit .243/.320/.374 in 394 plate appearances.  While this season could be explained by his calf and hamstring problems, Rollins wasn’t much more effective in 2009 (.250/.296/.423) when he led the majors with 725 PAs.  Perhaps as a vote of confidence, the Phils picked up Rollins’ $8.5MM option for 2011 following that disappointing 2009 season, but the club have to be having second thoughts about that move given how Rollins played this season.  One bright side: Rollins had a 12.3 UZR/150 rating in 2010, the second-best mark of his career.

Back in April, in the wake of Ryan Howard’s massive extension, MLBTR’s Luke Adams looked at how Rollins’ future in Philadelphia might be impacted by Howard’s deal.  Adams concluded that the Phillies would probably extend Rollins, but “If Rollins does receive a multi-year, big-money extension though, the Phillies’ financial flexibility will take yet another hit.”  MLBTR’s Howard Megdal agreed, painting a rather dire picture of Philadelphia’s payroll in 2012 and beyond.

Looking at the situation now, Raul Ibanez and Brad Lidge’s contracts almost surely be off the books after 2011; Ibanez is a free agent, Lidge has a $1.5MM buyout option.  Jayson Werth is at best a 50-50 proposition to be re-signed, since the Phillies have Domonic Brown waiting in the wings. 

Added to the equation, however, is Roy Oswalt’s $16MM team option for 2012.  Though Oswalt will turn 35 in 2012, the right-hander has showed no signs of slowing down.  Given the choice between having Oswalt or a 33-year-old shortstop with a sub-.700 OPS, I think both the Phillies and their fans would prefer to see Oswalt back in the fold over Rollins if a choice had to be made.  Philadelphia isn’t a small market by any means, but they certainly don’t have a Yankee-esque payroll that allows them to throw big money at everyone.

That said, Rollins’ decline in production could actually increase his chances of retiring as a Phillie if it lowers his asking price.  Rather than a big-money contract, Rollins and the team could agree to an incentive-filled deal that stretches over three seasons and pays him around $9MM a year in guaranteed money.  It gives the Phillies some flexibility, Rollins the chance to still earn extra cash if he reaches his incentives and both sides a PR win — the club for doing right by a Phillie hero and Rollins for not seeking an unrealistically big contract if he continues to decline.  

Is $9MM a season still too much for a shortstop that had a lower OPS than Ian Desmond, Marco Scutaro or (by 16 points) even Derek Jeter this season?  Probably, but as Yankees fans can tell you, there’s something to be said for overpaying a home-grown, World Series-winning star.  

Reds Likely To Decline Orlando Cabrera’s Option

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"All indications are that" Cincinnati will decline its end of the $4MM mutual option on Orlando Cabrera for 2011, according to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com.  The move isn't exactly a surprise (over 80 percent of MLBTR readers polled last week thought Cabrera's option would be declined), but the Reds are interested in re-signing Cabrera at a lower price.  Earlier this week, Reds GM Jocketty told WKRC Local 12 Sports Director Brad Johansen that Cabrera's option is "probably more than we want to exercise, we'll try to find a happy medium..if not, [Paul] Janish would be our SS." (Twitter link)

Cabrera could be amenable to staying since it appears as though he'd be given at least a share of the starting shortstop job and his lackluster 2010 season — a .263/.303/.354 slash line in 537 plate appearances — will make it hard to find a larger offer or regular playing time elsewhere.  If the Reds pass on the option, they owe Cabrera a $1MM buyout.

Jocketty also told Sheldon that the club also has interest in Ramon Hernandez and Jonny Gomes.  Hernandez is a free agent, while Cincinnati has a $1.75MM team option on Gomes.  MLBTR's Luke Adams recently examined Hernandez's value on the free agent market, while MLBTR's Steve Adams did the same with Gomes yesterday.

Blue Jays Notes: Alomar Jr. Wallach, Marcum, Crawford

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It was on this day in 1992 that the Blue Jays won their first World Series game, a 5-4 result over Atlanta in Game 2 of the 1992 World Series.  Here are a few notes about the Jays and their quest to find a manager that can get them back to the postseason…

  • Sandy Alomar Jr. is going to have his third interview with the Blue Jays and is "among [the] finalists" for Toronto's managerial job, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com, though Rosenthal isn't sure how many names are on the Jays' list of finalists.  Alomar Jr. is one of the least experienced of the many names on Toronto's list, with just the past season as Cleveland's first base coach and two years as a Mets minor league catching instructor on his coaching resume.  Rosenthal also notes that Boston bench coach DeMarlo Hale "is in [the] mix," which ties into yesterday's item about Hale being asked back for a second interview.
  • Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com has more details on why Dodgers coach Tim Wallach didn't interview for the Toronto job.  It appears as though Wallach will be the L.A. third base coach in 2011 unless he's hired as the new Milwaukee manager.  The Globe And Mail's Robert Macleod also looks at the situation and thinks that the Dodgers want to keep Wallach in the fold in case Don Mattingly struggles as the club's manager.
  • In a mailbag for MLB.com, Jordan Bastian thinks Toronto will discuss a contract extension with right-hander Shaun Marcum this winter.  Since Marcum still has two years of arbitration left, however, Bastian notes that "keeping him under control as an arbitration-eligible player could increase his value on the trade market." 
  • From that same mailbag, Bastian doubts the Jays will make a play for Carl Crawford.  While the Jays have said that they can afford high-priced free agents, Bastian thinks the club won't do so until it gets to "the stage where it sits a piece or two away from World Series contention."

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