Archives for October 2010

Odds & Ends: Rothschild, Listach, Wallach, Alderson

By Mike Axisa | October 10, 2010 at 9:22pm CDT

Some links to check out as the Reds try to extend their season…

Paul Sullivan of The Chicago Tribune reminds us that Cubs' pitching coach Larry Rothschild has until tomorrow to pick up his option for 2011. Rothschild has worked closely with Carlos Zambrano over the last several years, watching over him like a "substitute teacher," to use Sullivan's words.
Meanwhile, MLB.com's Bill Ladson reports that Nationals third base coach Pat Listach is no longer a candidate to manage the Cubs.
Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com reports that Tim Wallach will serve as either the Dodgers bench or third base coach next season unless another team hires him to be their manager.
Sandy Alderson asked and received permission from Bud Selig to interview with the Mets for the GM vacancy next Thursday or Friday, and The New York Post's Joel Sherman says that's an indication that Alderson wants the job badly.
Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain Dealer ranks everyone on the Indians 40-man roster based on what they did in 2010 and what they're expected to contribute in 2011.
In a mailbag piece, Hoynes says that insurance would cover some of the $28.75MM left on Travis Hafner's contract if he lands on the disabled list with a right shoulder issue. Pronk has been battling injuries to the shoulder since 2008.
John Tomase of The Boston Herald looks at all of the non-closer relievers who signed a multi-year deal worth at least $5MM over the last four seasons. In summary, it's not pretty. Not at all.

Amateur Signing Bonuses: Braves

By Mike Axisa | October 10, 2010 at 7:13pm CDT

Let's continue our look at each team's amateur spending with the Atlanta Braves. Here are the five largest signing bonuses they've paid out…

Mike Minor, $2.42MM (2009)
Jeff Francoeur, $2.2MM (2002)
Matt Belisle, $1.75MM (1998)
Jason Heyward, $1.7MM (2007)
Edward Salcedo, $1.6MM (2010)

The seventh overall pick in 2009, Minor shot through the minors this season and made eight starts (and one relief appearance) for the Braves. His 5.98 ERA in 40.2 innings was ugly but the peripherals were excellent: 9.5 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. He figures to get a much longer look next season.

Francoeur, the 23rd overall pick in 2002, burst onto the scene with a .300/.336/.549 effort in his 2005 rookie campaign, but struggled thereafter. He hit just .266/.308/.424 with the Braves before being traded to the Mets for Ryan Church a few weeks before the 2009 trade deadline. Belisle was the 52nd overall pick in 1998, but he never appeared in a game for Atlanta. He pitched well in the minor leagues before missing the entire 2001 season due to injury, and the Braves eventually shipped him to the Reds as a player to be named later in a 2003 deal for Kent Mercker.

Heyward somehow lasted until the 14th overall pick of the 2007, and he just wrapped up a tremendously successful rookie campaign: .277/.393/.456 in 623 plate appearances. He should receive plenty of Rookie of the Year votes, if not in the award outright. Salcedo turned pro just this summer, and hit .225/.307/.333 in 304 A-ball plate appearances. He is arguably the team's best position player prospect due to his talent level and physical gifts.

Kenshin Kawakami was a long-time veteran of the Japanese leagues, but if we relax our criteria a bit to include players with zero MLB experience, his $2MM signing bonus would slot in at number three.

MLBTR Originals: 10/3/2010 – 10/10/2010

By Mike Axisa | October 10, 2010 at 5:52pm CDT

There wasn't much in the way of rumors or transactions this week, but that's understandable. Everyone is focused on the postseason, including players, team executives, and agents. Here's a look at the original content we provided over the last seven days…

Now that the regular season is over, Eddie Bajek was able to finalize his reverse-engineered Elias rankings. Here's a list of all the Type-A and Type-B free agents, and also the 2011 draft order.
Tim Dierkes looked at Mike Napoli's arbitration case, and he listed some free agent groundballers and innings eaters. Scott Boras is well-positioned for the offseason.
Ben Nicholson-Smith dug up some third base options for the Indians, and we also looked at the free agent market for first basemen and the trade market for catchers.
The Arbitration Eligibles series continued with the Reds, the Cubs, the Nationals, the Phillies, and the Mets.
Ben looked back at what was being said when active GM's were hired, covering the AL East, AL Central, and AL West.
We examined the stock of several pending free agents, including A.J. Pierzynski of the White Sox, Gerald Laird of the Tigers, Ramon Hernandez of the Reds, Cliff Lee of the Rangers, and Aaron Harang of the Reds. We also looked at Brian Bannister's case for being non-tendered, and discussed Ryan Ludwick's future.
This week's polls featured questions about which player will improve his free agent stock the most during the postseason, which team will win the World Series, and also whether or not the Blue Jays will re-sign John Buck.
I kicked off a series looking at the largest bonuses each team has given to amateur players, starting with the Diamondbacks. I also rounded up the best links in this week's edition of Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
Howard Megdal's latest Jack Of All Trades pieces featured old-timer Bobby Bonds and the active Jose Guillen.
Ben's chat transcript can be found here.
Make sure you visit MLBTR's forums.

Week In Review: 10/3/10 – 10/9/10

By Steve Adams | October 10, 2010 at 4:42pm CDT

It's Sunday, which means it's time for a look back on the week that was here on MLBTR:

The offseason is beginning to take shape, as we heard that Cliff Lee may seek a C.C. Sabathia-type contract, but the Tigers won't be one of the teams pursuing him (or any other top starters for that matter).
Meanwhile, Angels owner Arte Moreno is prepared to spend big and targeting Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth. The Cubs are looking to spend too, except they're targeting the draft and scouting.
The Orioles will look to add power to their lineup, while Lance Berkman will seek out an everyday role somewhere as opposed to a platoon position.
It's unlikely to think about David Wright being traded, but Mets COO Jeff Wilpon's comments that they'd have to be open to anything has at least spurred speculation. For what it's worth, Wright wants to stay.
We saw lots of managerial decisions this week, as the Brewers declined their option on Ken Macha, the Reds signed Dusty Baker to a two-year extension, the Mets relieved Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel of their duties, and the Diamondbacks retained both manager Kirk Gibson, who received a two-year extension as well, and former GM Jerry Dipoto (now the senior vice president of scouting and player development).
Meanwhile, the Astros exercised Brad Mills' 2012 option and added another for 2013, but weren't done there. They made a decision on two player options, exercising Jason Michaels' $900K option while paying a $150K buyout on Geoff Blum's $1.65MM option.
The Rockies aren't sure on what do with their half of Miguel Olivo's option for 2011, as Victor Martinez is also on their radar, but they're likely discussing a deal to keep Jorge de la Rosa in Colorado.
A more noteworthy option we learned about was Bronson Arroyo's $11MM option for 2011, which will "definitely" be picked up, according to GM Walt Jocketty. The Reds have a $2MM buyout on the option, so Arroyo is essentially returning on a one-year, $9MM deal. Jocketty will try to extend the veteran workhorse this offseason.
Perhaps the biggest piece of option news this week relates to Albert Pujols though, whose $16MM option for 2011 was exercised by the Cardinals (not that there was ever any doubt). The Cardinals will be trying everything they can to get Pujols locked up beyond 2011, I'm sure. Side note on Pujols in case you weren't aware, both he and Rafael Furcal now have ten-and-five rights.
The Padres announced that they'll decline Chris Young's option for 2011 and GM Jed Hoyer will meet with Adrian Gonzalez's agent in the coming weeks. Later in the week we heard the Padres signing Gonzo long-term isn't "practical."
Cards GM John Mozeliak may have insisted that Colby Rasmus won't be traded, but that won't stop other teams from preparing to make a push for the 24-year-old. After his minor fallout with the Cardinals this season, you can bet all 29 teams have at least thought about making an offer.
Four Orioles minor leaguers elected free agency, while the Padres claimed Jarrett Hoffpauir from the Blue Jays, and the Rangers claimed Ryan Tucker from the Marlins, designating Rich Harden for assignment in order to do so.
The Red Sox removed Robert Manuel, Dusty Brown, and Kevin Cash from their 40-man roster; all three will be eligible for free agency following the World Series.
Daisuke Matsuzaka may have his ups and downs, but he's very much part of Boston's plans in 2011. They won't look to trade him.
Another Japanese pitcher, Hisashi Iwakuma, was posted by the Rakuten Golden Eagles this week. The 29-year-old posted strong numbers in Japan this past season.
Lastly, best wishes to Mike Redmond in his post-playing career in baseball. The veteran backstop retired this week, but is expected to find a managerial or coaching job elsewhere in the game. Redmond played 764 games over 13 seasons; not bad for a guy who wasn't drafted. Congratulations, Mike!

Manager & Coaching Rumors: Heyman’s Picks, Nats, Mets

By Steve Adams | October 10, 2010 at 3:07pm CDT

Not a lot of player news happening right now in the midst of the playoffs, but there's plenty of speculation going on about the guys who call the shots. We already heard about Ron Gardenhire's inevitable extension today, but let's take a look at some more links from the baseball universe:

In these two tweets, Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman makes his picks for some open managerial positions: Eric Wedge in Pittsburgh, Bob Melvin in Milwaukee, Bobby Valentine in Seattle, Mike Quade in Chicago, and Fredi Gonzalez in Atlanta.
We heard earlier this year that Jim Riggleman will manage the Nationals again next season. MLB.com's Bill Ladson tells us that the Nats' entire coaching staff will be returning for the 2011 season as well. The Nationals recorded 10 more wins in 2010 than in 2009 under the current regime.
Adam Rubin from ESPN New York gives us some insight into the Mets' managerial situation; potential general manager Sandy Alderson has believed it's misusing your resources to hire an expensive manager, while Mets owner Fred Wilpon would prefer a manager with previous ties to the Mets.

Gardenhire Will Manage Twins Beyond 2011

By Steve Adams | October 10, 2010 at 2:16pm CDT

2:16pm: Backing up what we've already heard, Kelsie Smith from the Saint Paul Pioneer Press spoke with Twins' GM Bill Smith, who says Gardenhire's postseason track record won't affect his job security at all (Twitter link). Gardenhire is just 6-21 in his postseason career.

1:49pm: The Twins saw their postseason hopes swept away by the Yankees yet again last night, but it appears Twins CEO Jim Pohlad hasn't lost faith in manager Ron Gardenhire as a result. The Minneapolis Star Tribune's La Velle E. Neal III and Joe Christensen write that Ron Gardenhire will receive an extension beyond his current contract, which runs through 2011.

''That's just such a nonissue,'' Pohlad said. ''We all know that's a no-brainer. We are going to get something done.''

Since becoming the Twins' manager, Gardenhire has racked up an impressive regular season record of 803-656, placing him 71st on the all-time wins list for managers. He's led the Twins to six AL Central Division titles and has seen his team notch 90 or more wins five times.

Gardenhire's Twins have only managed one postseason series win, however, back in 2002 against the Oakland A's. They wound up losing to the Angels in the ALCS that season, with the Angels going on to win the World Series. Following their 2010 sweep, the Twins have lost 12 consecutive postseason games, dating back to 2004.

Pohlad says Gardenhire has yet to bring up the issue and ask for a new contract, and according to the article, he's content to wait for the Twins to approach him about his extension:

''I have a contract next year… I'm happy about that part.''

For all of the praise he's received, Gardenhire has yet to win the American League Manager of the Year award, but he's considered to be a leading candidate for the honor in 2010.

Thome Leaning Towards Playing In 2011

By Mike Axisa | October 10, 2010 at 2:06pm CDT

2:06pm: Joe Christensen and La Velle E. Neal III from the Minneapolis Star Tribune also spoke to Thome about a potential return in 2011. Christensen and Neal remind us that Thome has repeatedly stated how much he enjoyed Minnesota, and provide this quote from the man with 589 home runs to his name:

"I love the game. I'd love to come back, I really would, and Minnesota was a great place, so we'll see how the winter goes. It would be great."

My own speculation, but Thome's potential return to Minnesota might depend on the Twins' decision on Jason Kubel's $5.25MM club option for 2011. Kubel, expected to be the regular DH in 2010, was forced into right field when Michael Cuddyer switched to first base following Justin Morneau's season-ending concussion. That lineup juggle opened the door for Thome's strong 2010. After posting such impressive numbers, he may be able to find more playing time with a different contender if Kubel returns.

Kubel's .249/.323/.427 line doesn't look nearly as impressive as Thome's, but he gives the Twins the options of playing him in the outfield (though his career -18.9 UZR/150 in the outfield doesn't inspire confidence). He did hit .300/.369/.539 with 28 home runs in 2009, so he's capable of being a highly productive DH. The Twins hold a $350K buyout on Kubel's option.

9:14am: The Twins' season came to an abrupt and disappointing end last night, but it sounds like Jim Thome won't allow his career to suffer the same fate. Thome kept it short and sweet with Kelsie Smith and Brian Murphy of The St. Paul Pioneer Press after the game, saying "Yeah, I think I'm coming back [for 2011]." Last month he admitted that retirement would have been tempting if the Twins won it all.

The 40-year-old Thome became a folk hero in Minnesota this season, something that tends to happen when you hit .283/.412/.627 with 25 homers in 340 plate appearances. He absolutely annihilated righthanded pitching, hitting .302/.445/.698 with 19 homers off pitchers of the opposite hand. At .241/.298/.471, he wasn't all that terrible against lefties either. With 589 career homers to his credit, Thome should become the eighth member of the 600 home run club next summer.

Thome signed a one-year deal worth just $1.5MM last offseason (he did earn another $200K in bonuses tied to plate appearances), the bargain signing of the year. MLBTR's Mark Polishuk looked at Thome's free agent stock two weeks ago, and you have to figure it's pretty high right now.

MLBTR's Steve Adams also contributed to this post.

Amateur Signing Bonuses: Diamondbacks

By Mike Axisa | October 10, 2010 at 12:10pm CDT

Every year all 30 clubs will spend millions of dollars to procure amateur talent, but that still pales in comparison to the amount they spend on their big league roster. As young players have become more prominent in baseball and teams shifted their focus to the draft and international market, the amount of money spent on amateur players has skyrocketed.

In this series we'll look at the largest bonuses each club has given to amateur players, and see what kind of return they got on the investment. Let's start off with the Diamondbacks…

Travis Lee, $10MM (1996)
Justin Upton, $6.1MM (2005)
John Patterson, $6MM (1996)
Stephen Drew, $4MM (2004)
Max Scherzer, $3MM (2006)

Lee and Patterson have interesting back stories. Both advised by Scott Boras at the time of the 1996 draft, they were declared free agents (along with Matt White and Bobby Seay) when Boras found a loophole in the signing process. The Twins selected Lee with the second overall pick, but they failed to tender him a contract within 15 days of the draft as required. Patterson, taken sixth overall by the Expos, did receive a contract offer within the 15 day window but it was not on official team letterhead.

The Diamondbacks were still two years away from their inaugural season and in the process of building their organization, so they dipped deep into their wallets to sign two premium talents. Lee went on to hit .252/.336/.401 in 338 games for Arizona before being traded to Philadelphia in July 2000 as part of the Curt Schilling deal. Patterson didn't debut in the big leagues until 2002, and he threw just 85.2 innings (5.04 ERA) for the D-Backs. They dealt him to the Expos in 2004 for Randy Choate. Both Lee and Patterson have been out of baseball for several years now.

Upton was the first overall pick in the 2005 draft and signed what was then the largest minor league contract in draft history. Still just 23, he's on the cusp of stardom (.272/.352/.471 career) although a shoulder injury sabotaged his 2010 season. Drew signed the largest contract of the 2004 draft as the 15th overall pick after a year long holdout (this was before the signing deadline was implemented), and through four-plus seasons as a big leaguer he's hit .272/.332/.448. Scherzer was the 11th overall pick in a 2006 class loaded with college pitching, and he went on to post a 3.86 ERA in 226.1 innings for Arizona before being included in last winter's Curtis Granderson–Edwin Jackson–Ian Kennedy blockbuster.

Cafardo’s Latest: Matsuzaka, Managers, Konerko

By Mike Axisa | October 10, 2010 at 10:28am CDT

Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe spoke to nearly a dozen scouts and executives and found that there would be substantial interest in Daisuke Matsuzaka if the Red Sox made the righthander available in a trade this offseason. Most of those polled believe Boston would have to kick in some money to offset the two-years and $20MM left on his deal, but it's unclear what they would want in return. As Cafardo reminds us, there's no such thing as too much pitching depth, so the Sox could simply hold onto him.

As far as teams that could have potential interest in Dice-K, Cafardo names the Mariners, Mets, Dodgers, Brewers, Rangers, and Tigers. Here are the rest of his rumors…

There's talk that the Red Sox might go after Yu Darvish if he's posted this winter, and there is a little bit of a New England connection there: Darvish's father attended school in the area.
Doug Melvin said he will go outside the organization to replace departed manager Ken Macha, which rules out Dale Sveum and Willie Randolph.
Jim Hendry and Cubs ownership likes what interim manager Mike Quade got out of his players down the stretch, so the sentiment to retain him is growing.
Fredi Gonzalez turned down a chance to interview with the Cubbies, and it's looking more and more likely that he will take over for the retiring Bobby Cox in Atlanta.
Alex Anthopoulos is looking at third base/bench coaches for his next manager, while Neal Huntington might dip into his Indians' roots to fill the Pirates' managerial vacancy.
Paul Konerko indicated that contract length won't be much of a factor when he hits free agency this winter because he isn't sure how much longer he wants to play. Kenny Williams indicated that there might not be enough room in the budget for the White Sox to bring back their captain, especially if they seeks out a lefty bat as expected.
Jason Varitek wants to return to the Red Sox but the team is thinking bigger picture with Jarrod Saltalamacchia on board. Cafardo suggests the Marlins as a potential landing spot for Varitek, where he would work with the team's young pitchers.
Meanwhile, the Sox could sign John Buck as a stopgap while they wait for Salty to establish himself.
Teams in need of a second baseman are very interested in Jed Lowrie, though at least one scout thinks he can stick at shortstop. The 26-year-old hit .287/.381/.526 in 197 plate appearances this year.
Despite a strong finish (1.41 ERA in his last ten starts), the Cubs would still like to move Carlos Zambrano. Of course, they're going to have to eat some of the $55MM left of his contract to do so.
Cafardo thinks that Carl Pavano could command a three-year deal worth $30MM as a free agent this winter, but he'd have to give a bit of a discount to return to Minnesota. The Twins have shown a willingness to spend in the last year, so this will be an interesting negotiation for them.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Gerald Laird

By Mike Axisa | October 9, 2010 at 9:11pm CDT

Steve Adams already looked at the stock of one impending free agent in A.J. Pierzynski earlier today, now let's turn our attention to another AL Central catcher. The Tigers informed Gerald Laird that they will not attempt to re-sign him after the season just a week ago, so the soon-to-be 31-year-old backstop will hit the open market for the first time in his career.

Let's see what his stock looks like heading into the winter…

The Good

Laird is arguably the best in baseball when it comes to shutting down the opponent's running game. His 34% caught stealing rate was second base among AL catchers this year with at least 650 innings caught this season, and over the last five years he's thrown out a studly 37.6% of base runners.
He's extremely durable for a catcher, hitting the disabled list just once since 2004. Like all other catchers though, he'll occasionally miss a day or two with bumps and bruises. It comes with the territory.
As a Type-B free agent, a team will not have to surrender a draft pick to sign Laird. It's unlikely that the Tigers would offer him arbitration anyway.

The Bad

Laird isn't much of a hitter these days, bottoming out at just .207/.263/.304 in 299 plate appearances this year. Over the last three seasons he's put together a .238/.303/.342 batting line.
Laird's a Scott Boras client, so negotiations don't figure to be easy.

The Verdict

The offensive bar for catchers is pretty low right now, with backstops around the league hitting just .249/.319/.381 in 2010. Given the lack of offense found at the position, teams are focusing more on defense behind the plate, so Laird's cannon arm has definite value.

Jose Molina, a similar no-hit/all-throw catcher, was only able to find a one-year deal worth $400K guaranteed (plus incentives and an club option) last offseason, and even then he had to wait until mid-February. Laird is likely facing a similar situation; a one-year, low base salary contract with some performance bonuses to be a backup somewhere. Catchers are always getting hurt, so even if he settles for a minor league deal he'll probably get an opportunity at some point next summer.

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