The agent for Adam Dunn is telling teams that he expects the bidding for the free agent to start at four years and $60MM, according to Yahoo’s Jeff Passan. Dunn settled for a two-year, $20MM deal the last time he was a free agent, but two years and 76 homers later, Greg Genske is looking to triple his client's previous contract.
Dunn has been one of baseball’s most dangerous sluggers since breaking into the majors a decade ago. The 31-year-old, who has hit at least 38 homers in each of the past seven seasons, will likely decline the Nationals’ offer of arbitration later tonight. That will mean the team that signs him will have to surrender a top draft pick (assuming he leaves Washington).
Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports examined potential suitors for Dunn earlier today.
He doesn’t want to DH but can’t play in the field. 4/60 = Pass
Dunno, he still had a 3.6 WAR last year. If you listen to the $4M per win theory that is about what he deserves. I bet somebody gives it to him.
That’s based on his “best” defensive season in 6 years though. Granted, it was the first time he’d ever been at 1B full-time, but you really need more than a full year of UZR to get an accurate read, so who knows if he’s really that much better at 1B than the outfield or if it’s just a weird UZR blip.He might reconsider DHing when he sees the offers he gets.
EDIT: actually, can see you’re using BR’s WAR, which is based on total zone, I think. Same still stands, although the fact that the two stats agree might mean something.
I agree you need more than a year to make a real determination. Bottom line the guy is a butcher on defense no matter where you put him, but he nets wins with his crazy offensive numbers.
I agree you need more than a year to make a real determination. Bottom line the guy is a butcher on defense no matter where you put him, but he nets wins with his crazy offensive numbers.
I don’t buy into that theory. Ryan Raburn of the tigers had a 2.1 WAR last year so does that mean he deserves over 8 million a year? No.
No, it says that was his value.
If you believe in Fangraphs and use WAR as your argument here is what Dunn’s value has translated to over the past 5 years:
2006 – 1.9 WAR / $6.9m
2007 – 3.1 WAR / $12.8m
2008 – 1.1 WAR / $5.0m
2009 – 1.2 WAR / $5.5m
2010 – 3.9 WAR / $15.7m
Let’s say that he had signed that same 4/$60m deal 4 years ago. He would have generated a total of 9.3 WAR for approximately $39m.
Dunn’s issue has always been his glove. His bat is strong but his glove is awful. The two years where his value has been highest is attributable to UZR. And in this case, UZR is probably wrong on the individual year basis. Taken as a whole, Dunn is a butcher with the glove. When you factor in -15 or so for defense he drops down to a 2 WAR player.
Couple other factors. Those were his prime years. Scouts have repeatedly expressed concerns based off his size and style. Typically sluggers like Dunn don’t age well. Throw in the fact that the acquiring team will also need to kick over a top pick and this is working out to be a terrible signing.
You make good points. I will wager he still gets the 4/60 or real close to it, though.
Dunno, he still had a 3.6 WAR last year. If you listen to the $4M per win theory that is about what he deserves. I bet somebody gives it to him.
dunn strikes out to much hes average at best in the field and cant hit his own weight and hes not a kid cubs made this mistake with soriano and got stuck may be worth some risk if the bulk of the money is incentive based
The mistake that the Cubs made was giving Soriano an 8 year deal – to a player turning 31. If they had given him a 4 year deal, it would not have been as bad. Still wouldn’t have been good…
I’d take Dunn at 4/60 long before I’d take Jeter at 4/60
And even if he’s only a DH, I’d say $15 million a year for someone who puts up the numbers Dunn does would be worth it… but I’d balk at 4 years… I’d go with 2 years/$15mil, and I’d be open to negotiating an option for a 3rd.
But if I was forced to pick between the 2 guys looking for the same contract… I’d go with Dunn in a heartbeat.
Not. Gonna. Happen.
Pfffffffft.
For a guy who can’t field and won’t DH? Nah.
Dunn will end up being a Cub
Early Christmas present for Todd? 😀
Early Christmas present for Todd? 😀
Dear Orioles: GIVE IT TO HIM.
Thats my bet as well..
Dunn stated that he wants to remain in the National League. But I don’t see him turning down 60mm over 4 years to stay there. He would make a good addition to the O’s line-up and put in that heavy hitting bat they need. I would probably work on keeping him at 1st and rotating Pie/Scott for LF, unless they sign some more outfield help after they are done with filling the infield situation.
What’s his nickname again?
“Big Donkey”
What’s his nickname again?
A’s need to sign him. We deal with Cust in the OF, I think we can handle Dunn out there.
I was thinking the same thing. I wish we had a few more million to spend tho. It would be nice to get Beltre, Dunn, and Berkman. But one of Dunn or Berkman would have to DH. I don’t see us getting all 3 but if we did we could trade Barton for some bullpen help.
Watching Dunn and Custin the same outfield would be like watching an electric football game….players going all over the field until they jam into a wall.
With Dunn and Cust in the outfield I would tear up the grass and plant oats and sell tickets to watch them graze.
Last summer I watched Cust play the outfield at Comiskey. Reminded me of “Saving Private Ryan”…..he was running all over the outfield like he was dodging Nazi bullets on Omaha Beach.
A’s need to sign him. We deal with Cust in the OF, I think we can handle Dunn out there.
Would be sweet if the Giants signed him and stuck him in left. Still short an SS, though.
Dunn can play shortstop! Just give him a chance.
Would be sweet if the Giants signed him and stuck him in left. Still short an SS, though.
3 years/40m…
3 years/40m…
Dear Someone Who Isn’t the White Sox – pay the man, please, please, keep him away from 1st at USCF!!!*snort* Seriously, 4 years, 60 million?
Yep…the Sox have options for a lefty power bat that won’t cost this much.
Oney Guillen is hinting strongly on twitter that the White Sox have acquired Dunn. I really, really hope this is a joke. 🙁
Well..we’ll see. Maybe Konerko has taken the Orioles offer.
Yep…the Sox have options for a lefty power bat that won’t cost this much.
Konerko, who’s 3.5 years older isn’t looking for much less, and arguably he’s just as bad defensively.
I’d prefer Pena over Dunn, since he’ll cost much less.
Konerko, who’s 3.5 years older isn’t looking for much less, and arguably he’s just as bad defensively.
I’d prefer Pena over Dunn, since he’ll cost much less.
Dear Someone Who Isn’t the White Sox – pay the man, please, please, keep him away from 1st at USCF!!!*snort* Seriously, 4 years, 60 million?
When do winter meetings officially start?
When do winter meetings officially start?
VMart got four years 50mil to be a DH. Someone is gonna give Dunn the extra 10mil. He is a much better hitter than Victor
you mean he hits more home runs and walks more, while vmart hits 300 and walks as much as he strikes out opposed to dunns 175 strike outs.
Make that Dunn’s 199 strikeouts to V-Mart’s 52!Whew!!
Make that Dunn’s 199 strikeouts to V-Mart’s 52!Whew!!
Dunn had an OBP of .356 to V-Mart’s .351 last year. Career Dunn is .381 to V-Mart’s .369. Average matters not at all.
Career OPS: Dunn is .902 and V-Mart is .838.
Average matters a lot. It still means what it has always meant. Dunn’s OBP is inflated because he’s a liability on the base paths, so he’s more likely than most to be passed with runners on. Walking Dunn with a runner on second is pretty much a no-brainer call for any manager.
…what?
Average does not matter a lot. SLG matters a bit. OBP matters more. wOBA renders them all irrelevant. Dunn is the better hitter without question, but probably will get less than V-Mart because he doesn’t even present the option of being an almost-tolerable catcher (or anything else). Finally, being a threat at the plate translates into walks/pitching around a lot more than being a liability on the bases does.
Ah, the One Stat to Rule them All. I hadn’t reckoned with that.
Ah, the One Stat to Rule them All. I hadn’t reckoned with that.
With all due respect, I disagree. Average matters way less than OBP. And I also disagree that Dunn is a liability on the base paths. He is not a slow man for his size (and he’s a smart base runner, which is more important than speed), and he’s averaged 97 runs per 162 games in his career… that clearly is not a liability.
runs matter even less than average because they’re so reliant on context, and they certainly aren’t a good way to measure speed. for instance Ichiro had only 74 runs last year, not through any fault of his own (and certainly not because he’s slow), but because the hitters behind him were terrible.
Dunn’s not slow for his size but he’s a big guy, so he’s certainly slow in general. I agree he’s a smart baserunner, and his speed scores with the Reds weren’t too bad, in the 3.5-4 range.
I wasn’t saying he scores runs therefore he is fast, I was simply using runs scored as evidence that Dunn isn’t a liability on the base paths.
That would depend on who’s coming up next for the teams batting order……
Victor also will be able to catch for at least 2 years.
I’d still rather the tigers got Dunn and a defensive catcher, but I can’t complain. VMart was cheaper too.
just imagine if we sign werth/crawford or trade for someone, thats a pretty nice 1-4 we have.
if he catches, teams will run wild on him
Victor also will be able to catch for at least 2 years.
VMart got four years 50mil to be a DH. Someone is gonna give Dunn the extra 10mil. He is a much better hitter than Victor
15 mill a season isnt that bad for someone who will hit 35+ homeruns year after year i agree his defense isnt great but neither is carlos pena’s from what i understand
i just dont get people who say pena is better than dunn
the guy batted below the mendozah line last year he maybe slightly better defensivley but his average is awful
i realize no ones mentioned pena in particuler but i just wanted 2 throw this out there cause im sure we are going 2 get some comparisions
i wouldt mind seeing pena in a nats uniform over dunn but he would have to sign for alot less than i think he’s shooting for
pena is one of the best defensive first basemen in basball
Pena’s career UZR/150 at 1B: -2.7
Last two years: -3.7 and -6.1
Ouch!
UZR can’t properly depict a first baseman fielding ability!!
I developed a cavernous malformation trying to read this post. Speak English, please.
I developed a cavernous malformation trying to read this post. Speak English, please.
Carlos Pena won a gold glove two years ago…
Carlos Pena is a good fielding 1b no doubt BUT you shouldnt use GG’s to make a point
See: Jeter, Derek
Carlos Pena is a good fielding 1b no doubt BUT you shouldnt use GG’s to make a point
See: Jeter, Derek
meh so what gold gloves are a joke and have always been largely a popularity contest
just ask any shortstop in the american league this year about derek jeter
Carlos Pena won a gold glove two years ago…
Dunn would be the best defensive DH in the American League. Let him ride the pine when he’s not batting. You know he’s safe…because on a foul drive into the dugout there’s no chance he gets within 10 feet of it.
You don’t understand Carlos Pena’s value defensively then.
I wouldn’t take Pena over Dunn right now. However, Pena has put up some big years, both offensively and defensively. From 2007 to 2009 Pena racked up 13 WAR. During that same time Dunn was at 5.4 WAR.
Pena won’t cost a draft pick. Pena won’t require 4 years (most likely will settle on a 1 year). Pena won’t require $15m (my guess is a 1/$8 type deal will get it done).
They really aren’t comparable players at all.
thats why i said i dont mind pena in a nats uniforn however pena will have to settle for alot less than he’s shooting for
pena’s uzr has been atrocious the past two years not that dunn’s hasnt but dunn has been much more consistent offensively the past few years
i’d honestly be fine either dunn at 60 mill or pena on a 1 year deal at about 6 to 7 mill but if pena starts getting greedy i take dunn all the way
and i agree they arent rly comparable which is why i get annoyed when the media nats FO ect ect tries to compare the 2
oh 1 other thing i would like to mention is the nats last year had a very young shortstop in desmond and alot of people were griping that he committed alot of errors but later improved towards the end of the season
i would be hesitate to bring a new 1st basemen and be even more hesitate if it were just for 1 year given how inexperienced the nats will be at shortstop and 2nd base. the 1 thing about dunn last year is he did improve defensivly and is a very tall presence at 1st maybe im just dunn homer idk i just dont see anyone who can come in and fit our scheme better than dunn at this point. i also dont want to get into a cycle where the nats are changing 1st basemen every offseason if all this makes me a dunn homer so be it i guess im a homer 🙂
oh 1 other thing i would like to mention is the nats last year had a very young shortstop in desmond and alot of people were griping that he committed alot of errors but later improved towards the end of the season
i would be hesitate to bring a new 1st basemen and be even more hesitate if it were just for 1 year given how inexperienced the nats will be at shortstop and 2nd base. the 1 thing about dunn last year is he did improve defensivly and is a very tall presence at 1st maybe im just dunn homer idk i just dont see anyone who can come in and fit our scheme better than dunn at this point. i also dont want to get into a cycle where the nats are changing 1st basemen every offseason if all this makes me a dunn homer so be it i guess im a homer 🙂
thats a steep price for a one dimensional player…has a great bat but thats all he brings to the table
has a great bat but thats all he brings to the table
That’s “all” he brings to the table? Defense has become so important that it now seems overrated, especially at a position like first base. How many guys are a lock to hit 35+ home runs each year? That list includes Pujols and Dunn. Though he obviously strikes out a lot, he draws walks and has matured to the point where it looks like he can hit for a pretty respectable average now. He’s a legit #4 hitter and could easily get 110-120 rbis in a good line-up. 4-60 seems completely reasonable for Dunn.
Career .900 OPS and averaging 40 HR/100 RBI. I guess you could turn your nose up at that as “one dimensional” if you really wanted to.
sorry i dont think hes worth 15 million a year. i dont think any dh is worth 15 million no matter who u are. he cant play defense and his 13 errors at first base last year will prove that. shortstops and 3rd basemen dont even make that many errors in a season. if he was a good fielder then yea maybe he would be worth it.
See I think it’s about net wins. Like a net operating income, you subtract the expenses from the profit. In baseball terms you subtract the losses a player costs you from the wins he gives you. Dunn nets you 4 wins a year even kicking the ball all over the field as he is prone to do.
The other issues is what it would cost to DH him and pay another player to play his defensive position. It’s going to be $15/mil plus whatever an American League team would want to spend on a player to take over at 1B or LF
sorry i dont think hes worth 15 million a year. i dont think any dh is worth 15 million no matter who u are. he cant play defense and his 13 errors at first base last year will prove that. shortstops and 3rd basemen dont even make that many errors in a season. if he was a good fielder then yea maybe he would be worth it.
Anyone read the B-R article on what player has struck out the most times in his first 10 seasons? Adam Dunn!
Don’t worry Adam, I expect you only hold it for about 6 more years when Mark Reynolds becomes a 10 year vet.
Seriously though, a guy with a career OBP of .381 is allowed to strike out. What that says to me is he swings hard at strikes but doesn’t chase stuff out of the strike zone. So your result: HR, K, or BB. The guy gets on base and mashes when he hits. There is value in that (about $15M/yr, I imagine).
Oh I’m not saying he isn’t a great player, I just found that interesting.
Oh I’m not saying he isn’t a great player, I just found that interesting.
Within a few years Mark Reynolds will be nothing but a bat off the bench.
LOL why? R U just a hyperbole monster?
Within a few years Mark Reynolds will be nothing but a bat off the bench.
Blue jays get on this
Do you know the guy doesn’t really like baseball that much? Do you know the guy doesn’t have a passion to play the game that much? How much do you know about the player?
We’ve done our homework on guys like Adam Dunn and there’s a reason why we don’t want Adam Dunn. I don’t want to get into specifics.
Tongue firmly in cheek. Most prople won’t get that, you know.
only us jays fans that had the misfortune of looking at ricciardi’s face for 7 years
only us jays fans that had the misfortune of looking at ricciardi’s face for 7 years
simmer down JP
Blue jays get on this
its only 4 years 15 mill a season
if thats all he asking for i say wheres the pen so this guy can sign on the dotted line lol
not bad at all when you consider the rockies just paid troy todd helton type money
Troy also plays a premium position and plays it at a high caliber AND is 26… bad comparison
Troy is the best shortstop in baseball, but they had him under control for a few yrs. and 10 years is a long time.
its only 4 years 15 mill a season
if thats all he asking for i say wheres the pen so this guy can sign on the dotted line lol
not bad at all when you consider the rockies just paid troy todd helton type money
Last year his glove wasn’t near as bad as normal and a lot of that can be attributed to the fact that they finally stuck with him at one position. If he could find an AL home that favors lefties, where he can DH part time with a right handed defensive replacement, then it would be maximizing his value. Not too many teams come to mind…
Last year his glove wasn’t near as bad as normal and a lot of that can be attributed to the fact that they finally stuck with him at one position. If he could find an AL home that favors lefties, where he can DH part time with a right handed defensive replacement, then it would be maximizing his value. Not too many teams come to mind…
he is going to be with cubs nex year
Don’t think the Cubs have the payroll flexibility
He will be with the Cubs if they move Fukudome. Otherwise, Colvin plays 1b next year
he is going to be with cubs nex year
Isn’t it weird how certain statistical milestones have set the bar for HOF status? Adam Dunn doesn’t scream HOFer to me (at least not at this point), but is there really much doubt he gets at least 500 homers? He’s at 354 at age 31. Crazy how some things add up for some players without really noticing it.
I have said it before and I will say it again. He is relatively you g and has proved his consistency. If anybody deserves their big career contract it is Dunn. Pay the man what he deserves!
I don’t think it’s ultra unreasonable but I also don’t think it’s that fair either. I mean if he’s going to play a tolerable lf or 1b sure, but lord knows that won’t happen. I’d say 3/45 is more reasonable even tho it’s the same annually.
Dunn’s fielding percentage was .990 last year in his first full season at 1B, he should only get better at first if he stays there, he insulates the lineup like Murray used to for Ripken, and it affects the whole lineup, plus he’s a left handed power threat that’s difficult to replace. He’ll help bring in fans ($$) to the park as an exciting player. Be nice to see him stay w/the Nats —
Dunn would be a good fit for the Orioles, they need some power.
He would be perfect in boston for what they have planned. They need a one year stopgap corner infielder until they get one of AGonz, Pujols, or Prince. Dunn plays first in year one and then moves to dh to replace Big Papi whos in his final year!
He would be perfect in boston for what they have planned. They need a one year stopgap corner infielder until they get one of AGonz, Pujols, or Prince. Dunn plays first in year one and then moves to dh to replace Big Papi whos in his final year!
5 yrs / $67.5 M would be nice for the Orioles. Adrian Gonzalez will be in a Red Sox uniform next year & Prince Fielder is your other Star option. Swisher could also be considered for 1B but the Yanks won’t let him go anywhere. I like Prince a lot, but his daddy Cecil
s numbers were great in his 20’s….then at the age 32 he fell off a cliff, statistically speaking & his career was over by 34. Probably a bad idea inking Prince to a long term deal given his similarities to poppa.
Dunn is just turning 31, & has just about 7 straight 40+ HR/100+ RBI seasons. His average HR distance this year was 411.1 ft. 11 of those were over 430 feet. The longest being a mammoth 479 ft shot. mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=12052009 The .902 OPS career average is hard to come by. OPACY gives Dunn 40-50+ HR & some smiling fans out in the flagcourt. The maximum amount of times he’s GiDP in a 1 season is 12. It’s not like he’s a terrible 1B, he had 2 GG’s (2008, 2009).
I’d like to see Eric Chavez(6 Gold Gloves, 35.8 WAR in 13 seasons) invited to Spring Training w/ the O’s this year. Plus Wiggy or Cantu signed cheap for infield support 3B/2B. Give big donkey the big paycheck for heavens sake or this franchise is onto consecutive losing season number 14.
I hope the Dodgers get Adam Dunn, and before everyone starts saying we cant afford him because of McCheap “your right” but with the way the Dodgers are spending money right now they should just make the push to get Adam Dunn.
We all know he has crappy defense in left field but we knew that about Manny and we didn’t care as long as he hit the ball. Adam Dunn is also a proven hitter a Dodger Stadium,”we now have two huge dent’s on our right field foul pole to prove it” even his foul balls turn into home runs at Dodger Stadium.
I would not mind a line up where the heart of our batting order would have Kemp, Ethier, Uribe, and Dunn.
With the NL West being so stacked with great pitching the team with the most offense I think will come out on top. We now have a five man rotation to get us playoffs and our offense has always been thing to keep us from a world series, so i think getting Adam Dunn would be a great pick up for the the boys in blue.
I watched Dunn from the 1st baseline all year and loved having him in the Nats. Then I watched 2 games from behind the plate on the 3rd base side looking right down the 1st base line. He is a STATUE on balls it near 1B. Also, as much as I love the towering HRs, I hate that he is OK with drawing a walk when the team needs him to get a hit with runners in scoring position and down a run or 2. Ryan Zim loves him and he does protect Zim, but I think that they have got to be able to trade or pick up someone else who can do that. I wonder if Pena could have a resurgence in the NL instead of AL pitching. I’d even like to see them pick up Konerko instead of Dunn.
I watched Dunn from the 1st baseline all year and loved having him in the Nats. Then I watched 2 games from behind the plate on the 3rd base side looking right down the 1st base line. He is a STATUE on balls it near 1B. Also, as much as I love the towering HRs, I hate that he is OK with drawing a walk when the team needs him to get a hit with runners in scoring position and down a run or 2. Ryan Zim loves him and he does protect Zim, but I think that they have got to be able to trade or pick up someone else who can do that. I wonder if Pena could have a resurgence in the NL instead of AL pitching. I’d even like to see them pick up Konerko instead of Dunn.
15 mil a year isn’t bad for Dunn. Sure, he’s a defensive liability, but his power is pretty much off the charts. He is basically a lock to hit 40 HRs a year, barring injury. With a decent lineup surrounding him, a 40 homer 110 RBI year is very possible….