Poll: Derek Jeter’s Next Contract
Derek Jeter will presumably re-sign with the Yankees this winter and even though he's having a down-year by his lofty standards, the Yankees don't intend to "play hardball" when their shortstop hits free agency this winter, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Understandably, they'd prefer not to bicker with their captain and are prepared to pay him.
Jeter has a .264/.331/.372 line in 2010. It's acceptable for a durable shortstop, but he has never posted lower batting, on base, or slugging averages in a full season. The stats aren't there this year, but Jeter did have an excellent season at the plate in 2009. The 36-year-old is 103 hits away from reaching 3,000 for his career and provides the Yankees with value as an iconic, marketable player. Let's make some predictions:
How much guaranteed money will Derek Jeter sign for?
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Free Agent Stock Watch: Paul Konerko
Paul Konerko's season has him all over the American League leaderboard and on the fringes of the MVP conversation. The 34-year-old has already homered 33 times and he ranks fourth in the league in slugging percentage (.582) and sixth in the league in on base average (.397). Jose Bautista is the only American Leaguer with more home runs than Konerko, who is setting himself up for his next contract.
The Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays, White Sox and Nationals could all have some level of interest this winter, but those clubs will be able to turn to the likes of Carlos Pena, Adam LaRoche and Adam Dunn if they don't like Konerko's asking price.
Dunn has similar numbers to Konerko and is reportedly seeking a three or four-year deal. Two winters ago, when Dunn was negotiating his current contract, he had to lower his demands. He eventually signed for $20MM over two years, though he was coming off a season in which he hit 40 homers and posted an .898 OPS. Dunn's reputation as a poor defender hurt him then and will likely limit his value again this winter. UZR has generally ranked Konerko as an average defender, though the metric suggests his fielding has been poor in 2010.
Konerko's age (he turns 35 in Spring Training 2011) will likely make teams reluctant to commit to him for more than two seasons. Though Konerko has generally been healthy this season, he recently missed games with lower back stiffness. He can hit for power, but a number of similarly skilled DHs and first basemen will hit free agency along with Konerko this winter. If the first baseman is a Type A free agent after the season, as expected, and he turns down an offer of arbitration from the White Sox, teams would have to give up a draft pick to sign him, which could reduce interest.
Despite his age, Konerko is having his best season in years. Other players aren't as reliable as the 14-year veteran, who has hit fewer than 27 homers just two times in the last decade. That kind of consistency will allow Konerko to ask for a multi-year deal with a significant base salary. A two-year contract worth $20MM or so seems reasonable at this point.
Rosenthal On Jeter, Werth, Cardinals, Reds
Derek Jeter’s .264/.331/.372 batting line is remarkably similar to Marco Scutaro’s .271/.331/.372 line, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports points out. Scutaro’s a quality major league player, but the two-year $12.5MM deal he signed as a free agent last winter pales in comparison to the kind of contract Jeter seems likely to sign when he hits the open market after the season. Here’s Rosenthal’s Jeter update, plus other notes from around the majors:
- Yankees officials do not plan to “play hardball” with Jeter this winter. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes suggested in May that $30MM over three years could be reasonable, but the Yankees don’t want to lowball their captain.
- One GM who may have interest in signing Jayson Werth this offseason has doubts about the outfielder’s ability to hit in a less imposing lineup.
- Cardinals manager Tony La Russa told Rosenthal that St. Louis made multiple waiver claims on hitters last month, though they “went nowhere.”
- The Reds and Dusty Baker have exchanged ideas since the Reds offered Baker a one-year extension with no raise, according to Rosenthal.
Rangers Designate Alex Cora For Assignment
The Rangers designated infielder Alex Cora for assignment to create roster space for Esteban German. The Rangers signed Cora last month after the Mets released him, but the 34-year-old played in just four games for Texas, batting only seven times (he singled twice).
German, 32, has not yet appeared in the majors this season, though he is an eight-year major league veteran. He posted a .280/.371/.388 line at Triple A this year, spending most of his time at short, second and third. The utilityman also played left and center, though the Rangers presumably intend to use German on the infield.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Bronson Arroyo
If the Reds don't pick up Bronson Arroyo's option for 2011, he'll be in high demand. Only three pitchers have logged more innings than Arroyo over the course of the past five seasons and the 33-year-old has posted a 3.97 ERA with 6.2 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 over that span. Arroyo's 2010 season has been strong, as usual. He has a 3.84 ERA with 4.7 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 for the NL Central leaders this year.
Arroyo hasn't started fewer than 28 games in a season since joining Boston's rotation in 2004. That kind of consistency has value on the open market, even if Arroyo doesn't have overpowering stuff. The Mariners, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Indians, Rockies, Brewers, Nationals and Diamondbacks are some of the teams that could have interest in adding an innings eater this winter. There are other options of course – Kevin Millwood, Ted Lilly, Javier Vazquez and Dave Bush will be available – but Arroyo would have no trouble finding a job if the Reds decline his option.
It would cost Cincinnati $2MM to decline Arroyo's option and either $11MM or $13MM to pick it up (the cost depends on how many innings the right-hander pitches). The Reds have many pitchers to consider for their 2011 rotation, but none of them are as predictable as Arroyo. It would not be surprising at all to see the Reds pick up Arroyo's option.
If GM Walt Jocketty decides to turn down the option, the Reds will have to decide whether to offer arbitration to Arroyo, who currently projects as a Type A free agent. They could obtain compensatory picks if Arroyo declined an offer of arbitration to sign elsewhere, but he could always accept their offer.
Jason Marquis, another durable early thirties right-hander, signed a two-year deal worth $15MM last offseason despite similarly low strikeout rates. If Arroyo hits the open market this winter, it would not be surprising to see him sign a two-year deal worth $20MM or so.
Potential Trade Destinations For Colby Rasmus
Most teams fortunate enough to have cheap, productive players don’t have a whole lot of interest in trading them. The Cardinals, however, may consider offers for Colby Rasmus this winter. Cardinals manager Tony La Russa told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that his 24-year-old center fielder asked for a trade, and GM John Mozeliak must now decide whether to make one.
Rasmus denies that he asked for a trade, but has undeniably drawn the ire of La Russa and Albert Pujols. La Russa is a free agent after the season, so the Cardinals could simply hire another manager this winter to avoid clubhouse tension. But Pujols isn’t going anywhere and he says the Cards should trade Rasmus if he doesn’t want to play in St. Louis. Of course Pujols isn’t the one making this decision. Mozeliak would likely have serious reservations about dealing a cornerstone player, regardless of Pujols’ feelings and Rasmus’ reported demand.
After all, Rasmus doesn’t hit free agency until after the 2014 season. He has an .849 OPS this year and plays a premium defensive position for the MLB minimum salary. It is extremely difficult to replace that kind of asset, which is precisely why other teams would have interest in Rasmus if the Cardinals decide to trade their center fielder. Here’s a list of potential suitors for Rasmus, but do keep in mind that Cardinals executives have given no public indication that they are seriously considering a trade:
- The Braves have a pair of disappointing center fielders (Melky Cabrera and Nate McLouth) and a thing for Georgia natives, so they would presumably have interest in Rasmus.
- The Padres have Tony Gwynn, Ryan Ludwick, Kyle Blanks and others under team control in 2011, so they’d have to get creative.
- The Brewers would likely have trouble prying Rasmus away from the Cards, since they play in the same division, but an outfield of Ryan Braun, Rasmus and Corey Hart wouldn’t look bad.
- The A’s traded away a promising center fielder (Carlos Gonzalez) two offseasons ago; maybe they’d seize the chance to acquire an equally promising young player.
- The Red Sox have a pair of options under contract for 2011, but injuries to Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury diminished the team’s center field depth.
- The Nationals, who are now dealing with their own center fielder’s issues, would likely have interest in Rasmus if the Cards make him available.
- The Royals don't have a long-term option in center field.
- The Blue Jays would presumably inquire, as they did when Yunel Escobar fell out of favor in Atlanta.
Other teams would likely have interest, too, since players like Rasmus aren’t often available via trade. Again, the Cardinals will likely make every effort to keep Rasmus in St. Louis before putting him on the market. But if they do decide to trade him this winter, a variety of rival teams should show interest.
Varitek Intends To Play In 2011
Jason Varitek told Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal that he intends to play in 2011. The catcher, who hits free agency after the season, missed July and August with a broken foot, but he says he wants to continue his career, partly because he feels fresher than usual.
The Marlins, Tigers and Dodgers are among the teams that could have interest in adding a free agent catcher this offseason, so Varitek should draw interest, even if the Red Sox don’t re-sign him. Varitek started the 2010 season on an offensive tear, so it seemed that agent Scott Boras could demand a two-year deal for the 38-year-old. But the .342/.419/.868 line Varitek had on May 13th soon faded; he has batted just .211/.258/.333 since. The sample size is tiny, because of Varitek’s injury and status as a bench player, but a two-year deal seems less likely now than it did after Varitek's hot start and before his injury.
Odds & Ends: Choo, Larish, Fox, Maya, Orioles
Links for Sunday evening as the Dodgers and Giants battle it out in Los Angeles..
- Shin-Soo Choo is reminding his former team, the Mariners, of how talented he is, writes Doug Miller of MLB.com. Seattle sent Choo to Cleveland in a deal for Ben Broussard in 2006.
- Jeff Larish is enjoying his second stint with the A's, writes MLB.com's Alex Espinoza.
- Twins manager Rod Gardenhire told Kelly Thesier of MLB.com that designating Matt Fox for assignment was not an easy decision.
- Yuneski Maya is excited to make his major league debut, writes George Von Benko in piece for MLB.com.
- Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun spoke to Cal Ripken Jr. who has high hopes for Manny Machado.
MLBTR Originals
Here's a look back at some of the analysis and reporting MLBTR's writing team produced this week..
- This week we brought you up to speed on a pair of non-tender candidates: Dodgers second baseman Ryan Theriot and Mariners second baseman Jose Lopez.
- Brandon Webb's agent emailed MLBTR to make it known that his client is seeking an incentive-based contract with a significant base salary. The contracts of Brad Penny, Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, and Tim Hudson will be used as starting points, says Jonathan Maurer.
- This week we unfurled the "5 Surprises" series. The Dodgers, Rockies, and D'Backs were all chosen to kick off the new feature.
- After the season the Elias Sports Bureau will label free agents as Type A, B, or leave them without a label. MLBTR readers can keep track of how players will be designated thanks to Eddie Bajek's projected Elias rankings.
- We picked up our "Free Agent Stock Watch" series this week with examinations of Giants outfielder Pat Burrell and Orioles reliever Koji Uehara.
- Is your favorite team out of contention? Don't worry, we got you covered. Now you can track your team's bid for a higher draft pick on our reverse standings page.
- Tim Dierkes broke down the arbitration-eligible players for the White Sox, Indians, Tigers, Royals, and Twins.
- Oakland's Trevor Cahill could be in line to receive an extension, writes Luke Adams. Meanwhile, Ben Nicholson-Smith says that Jon Lester's deal will be a model for Clay Buchholz's extension, if Boston decides to go that route.
- On Wednesday Tim conducted his weekly chat.
- Our look at 2011 rotations rolled on with previews of the Twins, Cardinals, Mariners, Rays, White Sox, Red Sox, Orioles, and Blue Jays.
- If you're unclear on how September trades work, we have a post explaining everything you need to know.
- Howard Megdal wrote an entertaining recap of the 1982 trade deadline.
- MLBTR readers voted on a pair of phenoms, which late-season addition will perform better, the White Sox's acquisition of Ramirez, and discussed Adrian Beltre's next contract.
Rasmus Denies Making Trade Request
8:20pm: Rasmus denied making a trade request earlier this season, according to B.J. Rains of FoxSportsMidwest.com.
"I never did that,” said Rasmus following today's game. "I don’t know where that’s coming from. I just want to play baseball and have fun…I love being here. I love the fans. I’m moving forward and just trying to play hard and I’m happy we won today."
Tony La Russa also addressed the topic in today's post-game press conference. The manager insisted that he doesn't have an issue with Rasmus and that he will see significant playing time down the stretch.
2:04pm: Pujols had even more to say on the matter, writes Passan.
“If he doesn’t want to be here next year, we need to figure out a way to get him out of here and find somebody that wants to be here and play,” said the nine-time All-Star. “That’s a reality.
“That’ll show you right there a young player that doesn’t respect what he’s got,” Pujols added. “He needs to find out the talent and ability that he has and pretty much keep his mouth shut and play the game. Let the organization make those decisions, not himself.”
1:55pm: First baseman Albert Pujols has weighed in on the situation, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter).
"We need to figure out a way to get him out of here," said the nine-time All-Star.
1:26pm: Cardinals skipper Tony La Russa confirmed that center fielder Colby Rasmus has requested a trade, writes Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. However, La Russa declined to delve much deeper into the matter with reporters.
"What do you want me to say? Ask Colby. Just ask Colby," said the manager. "He can handle it however he wants to handle it. He's capable of explaining himself and what he was thinking at the time."
Despite La Russa's suggestion, Rasmus would not confirm his trade request before taking the field against the Reds this afternoon. He also declined to say whether he hoped to remain with the club next season. La Russa seems to think that the center fielder has had a change of heart.
"I think he's thinking probably the grass is not greener other places and that this is a good situation, a great organization, teammates, everything. That's what I think. You can ask him," said La Russa, who also said that the outfielder made a similar request in his rookie season.
Rasmus came to GM John Mozeliak with his request during the Cards' July 23-25 series against the Cubs at Wrigley Field, according to a source familiar with the situation. After the center fielder arrived late to the park, La Russa threatened to option him to Triple-A in a closed door meeting. However, when talking to Rasmus, Mozeliak assured him that he would be staying put.