The 2011 Rays And Carl Crawford
The Rays are willing to spend this season, but they're lowering payroll under $60MM for 2011. The upcoming payroll drop means next year's team will look much different than the one that's off to a 55-36 start this season. And as any Rays fan will tell you, prospective free agents Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena and Rafael Soriano could all be playing elsewhere a year from now.
The Rays can buy out the options for Dan Wheeler and Willy Aybar after the season to create some flexibility for 2011. They can let Grant Balfour and Randy Choate walk as free agents. And they can also non-tender or trade Jason Bartlett (who could earn $5-6MM in his final arbitration season) and Dioner Navarro (who could earn $3MM or so through arbitration). Even if all six of those players are on different teams in 2011, the Rays won't have much wiggle room unless owner Stuart Sternberg decides to spend more.
Now that Pat Burrell's gone, the Rays aren't stuck with any bad contracts, but GM Andrew Friedman won't likely have much spending power this offseason. B.J. Upton, Matt Garza, J.P. Howell, Lance Cormier and Andy Sonnanstine will get raises through arbitration. When you combine their salaries and the aforementioned buyouts with guarantees to Ben Zobrist ($4.6MM), James Shields ($4.25MM), Kelly Shoppach ($3MM), David Price ($2.2MM) and Evan Longoria ($2MM), you reach $32MM or so in a hurry.
That leaves the Rays with about $25MM to fill out their bullpen, add a first baseman and a DH and complete their roster with cheap players already in the organization like Wade Davis and Sean Rodriguez. When you consider that the Crawford-Pena-Soriano trio makes $27.5MM this year, $25MM doesn't seem like so much money.
It wouldn't be a surprise to see Crawford demand $17MM per season on the open market, as Matt Holliday did last winter. The list of potential suitors for the Rays' left fielder is a long one and it includes big spenders like the Yankees and Angels. It would take a lot of maneuvering for the Rays to pay Crawford market value and keep their payroll below $60MM.
Admittedly, this analysis tells us something we already knew (keeping Crawford will be tricky) and reminds us that there are still many unknowns. Anything could happen, since the offseason is months away. Crawford could stop playing like an MVP candidate and the team could trade B.J. Upton or decide to raise payroll. As painful as it would be, the Rays could even trade Crawford.
There are many variables, but we know this: as long as Crawford keeps playing excellent defense and hitting better than ever, his free agent value will be sky-high and it will be difficult for the Rays to keep their star left fielder in Tampa without leaving substantial holes on next year's team.
Odds & Ends: Inge, Reds, Parker, Brewers
Another round of links for Monday, as Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are finally in the Mets' starting lineup together…
- Brandon Inge will miss a month or more with a broken bone in his hand, according to the Tigers (via Twitter). Here are some third basemen the team could consider. Players who can play third and short like Miguel Tejada or Jhonny Peralta could appeal to the Tigers.
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman chatted with Chad Jennings of the Journal News and summed up the current trade market in these six words: "limited options and high price tags."
- Reds GM Walt Jocketty told MLB.com's Mark Sheldon something similar. Jocketty says the Reds are watching Jason Isringhausen partly because "there's not a lot available on the market."
- Troy Renck of the Denver Post talked to a Rockies official who says talks between the team and 2010 first rounder Kyle Parker are "pretty quiet" at this point (Twitter link).
- Corey Hart and Prince Fielder tell Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that they're doing their best to ignore trade rumors.
- Those two Brewers have something in common with Josh Willingham, who tells MLB.com's Bill Ladson that he doesn't worry about the rumors surrounding him.
- Ryan Theriot is aware of the rumors, but he told ESPNChicago that he doesn't want the Cubs to trade him.
Padres To Sign Wily Mo Pena
The Padres will sign Wily Mo Pena to a minor league deal and assign the former big leaguer to Triple A Portland, according to Mario Rojas of Candela Deportiva. The team has not confirmed the agreement, but Dan Hayes of the North County Times has (via Twitter).
Pena, 28, has been playing for the Bridgeport Bluefish of the Atlantic League since late May and was in tonight's starting lineup, according to a Bluefish public relations official. Nothing is official now, but the Padres appear to be moving towards a deal with Pena.
In parts of seven major league seasons, Pena has a .253/.307/.447 line. He hasn't played in the majors since 2008, but he did hit 26 homers on the 2004 Reds. Padres outfielders have combined to hit 26 homers (one more than Jose Bautista) in 1007 at bats this season, so they may hope Pena can return to the majors and add pop to an unintimidating lineup.
Padres Interested In Tejada, Not Targeting Guthrie
The Padres have scored fewer runs than any winning team in the major leagues, so their need for offense is clear. Reports have connected the Padres to a number of outfielders, but they also have interest in Miguel Tejada, according to MLB.com's Corey Brock (via Twitter).
The former AL MVP has a .275/.314/.372 line, for his lowest OPS since 1998. That's still better than the marks middle infielders David Eckstein and Jerry Hairston Jr. have posted, but not by much. Perhaps the Padres believe Tejada can hit like he did a year ago, when he posted a .795 OPS and made the NL All-Star team, or perhaps they view him as a capable backup.
Tejada is playing third in Baltimore, though he spent more than a decade as an everyday shortstop before the 2010 season. The Phillies have been linked to Tejada on and off, though their need for an infielder is less acute now that Placido Polanco is healthy.
Meanwhile, the Padres are not targeting Tejada's teammate, Jeremy Guthrie, according to Brock. The Padres have discussed Guthrie and would like to add pitching depth, but Brock's report suggests the team would prefer to add other starters.
Rangers Interested In Lefty Reliever, Righty Bat
The Rangers have already acquired one of the most highly-coveted trade chips in baseball, but they may not have finished their summer shopping yet. Ed Price of AOL FanHouse reports that they would like to add a left-handed reliever and a right-handed bat.
Few effective left-handers appear to be available, but GM Jon Daniels could inquire on Scott Downs, Will Ohman or Bruce Chen. Downs is drawing interest from the Yankees and Red Sox, but Ohman, who makes $560K between now and the end of the season, could be a fit for Texas.
The Rangers have interest in Jorge Cantu, according to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. That report, plus the team’s continued interest in Mike Lowell, suggests the Rangers would like to add a veteran who can play each corner infield position, perhaps as insurance in case Chris Davis falters.
Tigers Inquired On Ted Lilly
The Tigers inquired about Ted Lilly, according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark. Buster Olney reports that the sides haven’t discussed a deal in over a week, though the left-hander would be a good fit for the Tigers.
The ESPN reporters say the Cubs are communicating with a number of teams about Lilly, who is “very available.” ESPN.com’s Bruce Levine reported yesterday that teams such as the Tigers were pursuing Lilly.
The 34-year-old has a 4.07 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 this season and projects as a Type A free agent. The Tigers could use that kind of arm, since they have had inconsistent production from starters other than Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman. At 48-42 the Tigers are tied for second in the AL Central, but like the White Sox and Twins, they could use depth in their rotation.
The Tigers, who would consider adding a shortstop, have had interest in Ryan Theriot before and could inquire about him as well. Last year, the Tigers added left-hander Jarrod Washburn for the stretch run, though he didn't pitch as well as they would have hoped (7.33 ERA in Detroit).
Odds & Ends: Guthrie, Ross, Ranaudo
A year ago today, the Brewers acquired Felipe Lopez from the Diamondbacks for prospects Roque Mercedes and Cole Gillespie. Lopez raked after the trade, but was not offered arbitration by the Brewers. Gillespie and Mercedes ranked among Arizona's top 30 prospects heading into the season according to Baseball America, with the former now playing for the big league club. On to today's links…
- The Mets scouted Jeremy Guthrie's last start, according to Ed Price of AOL FanHouse. Guthrie could make for an interesting project, as one scout told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, "He should be better than he is."
- The relief trade market is "absolutely terrible," one talent evaluator told ESPN's Buster Olney (Twitter link).
- The Padres are not a fit for Marlins outfielder Cody Ross, according to Tom Krasovic of AOL FanHouse. The Padres prefer David DeJesus instead, tweets Dan Hayes of the North County Times.
- Astros owner Drayton McLane "seems paralyzed by indecision," writes Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle.
- SI's Jon Heyman ranks the 24 best available position players, starting with Prince Fielder.
- Red Sox draft pick Anthony Ranaudo is done pitching in the Cape Cod League, reported Brian Foley of The College Baseball Blog yesterday. The consensus among prospect gurus is that Ranaudo had nothing left to prove. An elbow injury and representation by Scott Boras caused Ranaudo to drop to the Sox at #39 in the June draft.
- The Mariners should aim to be competitive in 2012, writes Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner.
- Former Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi offered a few stories of near-deals on WEEI's The Big Show on Friday.
Red Sox, Yankees Interested In Scott Downs
The Red Sox and Yankees have "big-time" interest in Blue Jays reliever Scott Downs, according to Ed Price of AOL FanHouse. Downs, a free agent after the season, has a 2.56 ERA, 7.0 K/9, and 1.9 BB/9 in 38.6 innings this year.
Neither team's interest comes as a surprise. The Red Sox have been linked to Downs since this July 6th report from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The Yankees are known to be seeking relief help. The Phillies are also said to be interested in Downs. Last week on WEEI's The Big Show, former Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi praised Downs as a potential Red Sox acquisition but had harsh words for Jason Frasor and Kevin Gregg.
ESPN's Buster Olney had an interesting series of tweets today on Downs, where he explained that the lefty might be hurt by Type A designation if he is offered and turns down arbitration after the season. Perhaps Downs' agent at CAA will advise the pitcher to accept if offered. A look at our latest Elias Rankings projections shows that Matt Guerrier, Frank Francisco, Dan Wheeler, Arthur Rhodes, and Pedro Feliciano might be in the same boat as Type As, though I imagine many will not be offered arbitration.
Rosenthal On Iannetta, Athletics, Bautista
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports kicks off his latest column with a look at Alex Rodriguez's $30MM worth of home run incentives. The chase isn't generating the buzz the Yankees anticipated when they re-signed A-Rod. On to Rosenthal's rumors…
- Talks are on again between the Red Sox and Rockies regarding catcher Chris Iannetta. The Rockies would want to improve their big league club with an in-season deal, so perhaps we'll hear heightened Iannetta buzz during the offseason if Miguel Olivo is retained.
- The Nationals do not seem to have chosen a course with Adam Dunn in terms of trading or extending him now.
- The Athletics have no intention of trading Coco Crisp or Mark Ellis, as both players have club options for 2011.
- Yankees catcher Francisco Cervelli is "a frequent trade target of rival clubs," but the team likes having depth at the catcher position.
- As part of the Yunel Escobar–Alex Gonzalez talks, the Braves and Blue Jays discussed Jose Bautista. For now, the Braves still have time to evaluate Nate McLouth's recovery from a concussion. MLB.com's Mark Bowman wrote today that the Braves have considered David DeJesus, Cody Ross, Corey Hart, and Josh Willingham as potential trade targets.
Rays Sign Baldelli To Minor League Contract
12:46pm: Baldelli has officially been signed to a minor league deal, according to a Rays press release.
12:09pm: Rocco Baldelli is expected to sign a minor league contract with the Rays this afternoon, according to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times. Topkin says Baldelli is set to DH tonight for the team's High A club, the Charlotte Stone Crabs. The Crabs boast familiar names such as Tim Beckham, Matt Moore, and Matt Bush. Baldelli is transitioning from a special assistant role and trying to come back from a shoulder injury. He hit .253/.311/.433 in 164 plate appearances for the Red Sox last year.