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Discussion: George Sherrill

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Dodgers reliever George Sherrill, who earned $4.5MM in 2010, might not be offered arbitration this winter.  In other news, I might not receive consideration for the 2011 Pulitzer Prize.

With all due respect to Sherrill and his past accomplishments, which include a fantastic second half of 2009 in Los Angeles, his 2010 numbers indicate that he's not worth another year at a similar rate.  However, Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times offered up a defense of the left-hander earlier this week in which he pointed out that Joe Torre often used him in the wrong situations.  Sherrill, who shines against lefties, faced 85 left-handed batters and 95 right-handed batters.  His stat line for the year was a 6.69 ERA with 6.2 K/9 and 5.9 BB/9, though lefties batted just .192/.286/.288 against him.

Sherrill won't be offered arbitration but he could certainly be a solid value for the Dodgers or another club looking to take a small gamble on a strong left-handed specialist.  Dilbeck predicts a "serious pay cut" and perhaps even a minor league deal in the 33-year-old's near future.  When utilized properly, however, one has to think that Sherrill can deliver results worthy of a guaranteed deal.  The only question is, will the market force a team to offer one?

The Orioles’ Preparation For The Rule 5 Draft

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Baseball's annual Rule 5 Draft is an often forgotten source of talent. It's designed to help players that are stuck in the minor leagues, perhaps blocked by a superstar like Albert Pujols or Evan Longoria, reach the big leagues with a different organization. Make sure you check out our Rule 5 Draft primer if you're unsure of how it works or what makes a player eligible.

For the most part, teams look to acquire role players in the Rule 5 Draft (a bench piece, long reliever, etc.) rather than hit a home run and find a star. The Dan Ugglas and Joakim Sorias are few and far between. The Orioles did select a future All Star in the 2003 Rule 5 Draft, but unfortunately Jose Bautista's breakout didn't occur until six years later with the Blue Jays. Jay Gibbons hit .260/.314/.455 with 126 homers in parts of seven seasons with the O's after they grabbed him from Toronto in the 2000 Rule 5 Draft.

The Orioles have selected a player in major league portion of the Rule 5 Draft every year since 2005, most notably landing Alfredo Simon back in 2006. Steve Melewski of MASN Sports recently spoke to one of Baltimore's higher-ups about how they prepare for the event…

"Now you simply go through all your reports and most people don't realize that there are more than 10,000 reports on this year's (available) players in virtually every club's system," said John Stockstill, the Orioles director of player development. "In our case, (assistant director of player development) Tripp Norton we be involved, I'll be involved and Lee MacPhail (director, pro scouting) will head that with all our scouts … Lee will use all of our reports available and we'll eventually target several players that we'd like to acquire."

Baltimore is a team with a lot of young talent on their roster and the financial means to make a splash in free agency, but they're still looking to fill some holes by being creative. Stockstill said they rank the Rule 5 Draft eligible players on their radar in several different ways, including by position and by team need. This year they could be searching for a shortstop or backup catcher, and of course pitching.

It's not often that the Rule 5 Draft bears fruit, but considering the cost (just $50K to select a player), it's a great way for a rebuilding team to add some young pieces to the roster and see what sticks. 

Pedro Feliciano Considering Accepting Arbitration

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Melvin Roman, the agent for lefty reliever Pedro Feliciano, says his client is "seriously considering" accepting the Mets' offer of arbitration according to Newsday's Ken Davidoff (Twitter link). Players have until Tuesday to either accept or decline arbitration.

Feliciano, 34, is a Type-B free agent. He earned $2.9MM in 2010 and would likely see his salary climb north of $3.5MM through the arbitration process. The Yankees are one team known to have interest in Feliciano, but as a highly durable left-handed reliever with a good track record, the suitors are likely lining up behind-the-scenes.

I broke down Feliciano's free agent stock just two days ago.

Poll: Top Free Agent Catcher

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Assuming you consider Victor Martinez a part-time catcher, part-time first baseman, and part-time designated hitter, John Buck was the best free agent catcher available this offseason. He hit .281/.314/.489 with 20 homers for the Blue Jays last year, but he's since signed a hefty three-year deal with the Marlins. As always, the number of teams looking for a quality backstop far exceed the number that are actually available, but there's still a few out there.

Miguel Olivo is a lock for double-digit homers year in and year out, and the same can be said for Rod Barajas. Both have thrown out a high percentage of would-be base stealers historically. Yorvit Torrealba has a .346 OBP over the last two years, a mark just eight other catchers can top. Jason Varitek hit for a ton of power (.473 SLG) in limited action this year. Then there's A.J. Pierzynski. He's started no fewer than 124 games behind the plate in five of the last six years, and his .284 AVG since 2008 can be topped by only three other catchers.

The Dodgers, Rangers, and Padres are known to be seeking help behind the plate, and it's safe to assume that the Mariners and Red Sox will hunt for upgrades as well. It wouldn't be a surprise if the Yankees, Rockies, Mets, or Orioles tried to improve their backup catcher situation either.

Who is the best catcher still available on the free agent market?

Click here to vote, and here to see the results. Thanks in advance.

Marlins Closing In On Javier Vazquez

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The Marlins and Javier Vazquez are close to agreeing to terms on a contract, a baseball source tells MLB.com's Bill Ladson.

On Tuesday, we heard that Vazquez was seeking a one-year deal and that talks with the Marlins were heating up. Florida's geographical proximity to the right-hander's native Puerto Rico is one factor in Vazquez's interest in the team.

The Nationals were rumored to be preparing an offer for Vazquez at one point, but according to Ladson, they are out of the running for the 34-year-old's services due to the serious nature of Vazquez's discussions with the Marlins.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Mariano Rivera

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It's not often that a free agent class offers not just one, but two first-ballot Hall of Fame relievers, yet that's exactly the situation we're in this offseason. Let's review the stock of the great Mariano Rivera…

The Good

  • Rivera remains the master at limiting base runners, holding opponents to a .181/.211/.266 batting line with just 25 unintentional walks over the last three seasons. His WHIP during that time is a microscopic 0.797.
  • His postseason track record is unmatched in terms of both quantity and quality. His 139.2 playoff innings feature a 0.71 ERA and 0.766 WHIP, and it's been ten years since someone took him deep in the postseason.
  • Although he's a Type-A free agent, the Yankees did not offer Rivera arbitration, so it would not cost a draft pick to sign him. 

The Bad

  • Rivera will turn 41 years old on Monday, and just three men in baseball history (Dennis Eckersley, Hoyt Wilhelm, and Trevor Hoffman) have recorded a 20-save season at that age or older.
  • He's two years removed from offseason shoulder surgery and has dealt with a nagging side injury since the 2009 playoffs.
  • The velocity of his legendary cutter is gradually declining, and his 6.8 K/9 in 2010 is his second lowest strikeout rate since 1998.

The Verdict

Rivera is a free agent in name only, as just about everyone expects him to re-sign with the Yankees at some point. Even so, he's reportedly seeking a two-year deal worth $18MM a season, a price very few teams can match. The Yanks understandably want to limit a contract to one season, but there's no reason to expect Mo to wear anything but Yankee pinstripes in 2011. 

Odds & Ends: Johnson, Webb, Bedard, Ellsbury

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Links for Friday, as the Yankees and Derek Jeter continue negotiating …

  • If you're curious to see which draft picks are changing hands as free agent compensation, check out the constantly updated 2011 Draft Order page at River Ave. Blues.
  • Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports explains that the large number of Type-A and B free agents (35 total) could impact how willing teams are to forfeit draft picks to sign free agents.
  • Bob Dutton of The Kansas City Star tweets that the Royals have re-signed right-hander Blake Johnson to a minor league deal. The 25-year-old owns a 4.42 minor league ERA, and he originally joined the Royals in a 2006 trade that sent Odalis Perez to KC and Elmer Dessens to the Dodgers.
  • Brandon Webb, Erik Bedard, Jeff Francis, Chris Young and Jeremy Bonderman are intriguing cost-effective pitching options on the free-agent market, writes Chris Toman of the Sports Network (via the Miami Herald). Each pitcher has seen his career derailed by injury to his pitching arm and will likely be seeking short-term, incentive-laden contracts, but there's a steep drop-off in the market from Cliff Lee to the second-tier starters.
  • Jacoby Ellsbury's reportedly strained relationship with the Red Sox and his attractiveness to potential suitors make him a strong trade candidate this offseason, according to Paul White of USA Today. Boston GM Theo Epstein has hinted that the Red Sox roster is in need of a "restocking," according to White, and Ellsbury could be a good fit for the Padres, Diamondbacks, Angels, Braves, Mets and Cubs.
  • Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports contrasts Paul Konerko's relatively quiet contract negotiations with those of Derek Jeter. Konerko, is coming off a fine season (.312/.393/.584), and he could accept salary arbitration and earn a raise on the $12MM he earned in 2010, but Morosi writes a three-year deal could be mutually beneficial for both parties. White Sox GM Ken Williams has been quiet about Konerko, who is known to have a good relationship with owner Jerry Reinsdorf.

Jeter & Yankees Are Far Apart

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7:39pm: Michael S. Schmidt of The New York Times reports that Jeter is seeking a four- or five-year deal worth $23-24MM annually according to "a person in baseball who had been briefed on the matter."

3:24pm: Close tells Yahoo's Tim Brown that the Daily News report is off base (Twitter link). "The recently rumored terms of our contract extension are simply inaccurate," Close said.

10:12am: Jeter is asking for less than $150MM over six years, according to Jim Baumbach of Newsday (on Twitter).

8:06am: Derek Jeter’s representatives are asking for at least $80MM more than the Yankees are willing to offer in negotiations for the free agent shortstop, according to Bill Madden of the New York Daily News. The starting point for Jeter and agent Casey Close was six years and $150MM, according to Madden, who reports that the Jeter camp is not budging from demands for a $25MM annual salary. Alex Rodriguez’s contract “is at the crux of Jeter’s and Close’s stance,” according to Madden.

The Yankees have offered Jeter multiple deals, including one that would pay the 36-year-old $45MM over the course of the next three seasons. Close suggested that the Yankees' tactics are "baffling," so Yankees GM Brian Cashman encouraged Jeter and his agent to test the free agent market in search of a more generous deal.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post proposes that the Yankees could sign Jeter to a six-year $75MM deal that could become more lucrative if Jeter reaches incentives based on plate appearances. The suggested deal would pay Jeter $20MM per season from 2011-13 and shield the Yankees from the luxury tax.

What’s Next For The Dodgers?

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The bulk of the moves made by the Dodgers this offseason have focused on shoring up the team's rotation, unsurprising after their starters threw the sixth fewest innings in the National League this season. Both Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda were re-signed, and the rebuild was capped off today with the Jon Garland signing. Add in the incumbent Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, and all of a sudden Ned Colletti's team boasts a deep starting staff.

Once the Garland deal was announced, Colletti told reporters that the rest of his offseason goals involve adding a bat, adding a reliever, and sorting out the team's catching situation (team Twitter link). A few weeks ago we learned that the Dodgers were likely to increase payroll next season despite the uncertainty surrounding the McCourts' divorce, and they could free up even more cash by non-tendering Russell Martin, George Sherrill, and/or Ryan Theriot. The $5.19MM they paid to former players Nomar Garciaparra, Orlando Hudson, and Jason Schmidt in 2010 disappears as well.

Colletti reportedly made a serious push for Aubrey Huff, but he's not expected to bid on Adam Dunn even though he's arguably the most dominant offensive force on the market. Colletti is likely do his shopping in the next tier of free agents, and has interest in bringing both Rod Barajas and Scott Podsednik back. Johnny Damon, Rick Ankiel, or Austin Kearns could slot into left field at a reasonable price, but that is nothing more than speculation on my part.

The late game bullpen will return next season in the form of Jonathan Broxton, Hong-Chih Kuo, and the upstart Kenley Jansen, but Colletti will presumably look for an upgrade over Ronald Belisario (5.04 ERA) and Ramon Troncoso (4.33) for the middle innings. So far they've added a few guys on minor league contracts (most notably Dana Eveland and Oscar Villarreal), but the safe bet has them adding someone more established this winter.

Matt Klaassen of FanGraphs explained that despite his performance drop-off, Martin is still a fine option behind the plate if healthy. A.J. Ellis and Hector Gimenez would be the only backstops on the 40-man roster if he's non-tendered, and those two have just 143 plate appearances worth of big league experience combined. Barajas performed well for the Dodgers late last season, but Miguel Olivo and Yorvit Torrealba are available on the free agent market as well.

Colletti's done a great job of getting the most difficult part of his offseason out of the way early by locking up the three starting pitchers, but there's still plenty of work to be done. Luckily for him, the winter is still young.

David Aardsma’s Trade Value

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The offseason is less than a month old, but the perception is that Joaquin Benoit's three-year, $16.5MM deal with the Tigers has busted the free agent reliever market. It's possible that the most cost effective bullpen pieces can now be found in trades, and Geoff Baker of The Seattle Times believes that David Aardsma's trade value has gone up without throwing a pitch since the end of the regular season.

Aardsma, 29 next month, emerged as Seattle's closer in 2009, and has pitched to a 2.90 ERA with 9.6 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 121 innings with the Mariners. He's 69 for 78 in save opportunities in that time, numbers that are likely to push his salary north of $4MM in his second time through the arbitration process this offseason. Aardsma earned $2.75MM in 2010.

The Mariners, who finished with the game's second worst record in 2010, have a number of holes to fill. They have a replacement closer in waiting in Brandon League, and could shop Aardsma for an upgrade at basically any position not occupied by Chone Figgins, Ichiro Suzuki, or Franklin Gutierrez. As we've seen in recent years, hard-throwing relievers can fetch all kinds of returns.

Matt Lindstrom brought back three non-top prospect minor leaguers in a trade. Kerry Wood returned two low level minor leaguers and salary relief. Leo Nunez brought Mike Jacobs. Chris Perez and another player landed Mark DeRosa. Joel Hanrahan and Sean Burnett were essentially traded for each other. Jose Valverde, Rafael Soriano, Chad Qualls, Ramon Ramirez, Octavio Dotel … the list goes on and on.

The number of teams that could use a guy like Aardsma is 30, for all intents and purposes, but his expected salary will likely limit his market to teams with sizable wallets. Baker speculates about a fit with the Rays, but acknowledges their payroll crunch. The Red Sox are seeking bullpen help and are familiar with Aardsma after his 2008 stint with the team, then of course you have the usual suspects like the Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals, Cubs, Tigers, Phillies, etc. All of this is one reason why Aardsma will almost certainly not be with the Mariners come Spring Training, as Baker puts it.

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