MLBTR Originals: 1/16/11 – 1/23/11
As the sports world turns its attention to football for the evening, let's recap the original content we posted over the last week…
- Ben Nicholson-Smith gave us five facts about the Elias rankings while Tim Dierkes examined the contracts that the Beverly Hills Sports Council was able to find for their relief pitcher clients this winter.
- Ben also looked at Jeremy Guthrie's arbitration case, the Rays' 2011 draft, and listed the remaining free agent starters by innings pitched. He was on conference calls regarding Gil Meche's retirement and Armando Galarraga being designated for assignment, plus he gathered some thoughts about Joey Votto's new contract extension.
- I went back and listed all of the recent contract extensions signed on January 21st.
- This week's poll questions asked which free agent signing was the most surprising, and if you believe the Cardinals will work out an extension with Albert Pujols.
- The best of the blogosphere can be found in Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
- Here is this week's chat transcript.
- Remember to check out our team and transactions-only feeds, and don't forget our Arbitration Tracker.
Week In Review: 1/16/11 – 1/22/11
Another Sunday closer to Spring Training and Opening Day 2011. Let's recap the last week:
- In an astonishing move, Toronto was able to unload Vernon Wells and his entire contract in a trade with the Angels. Toronto will receive Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera in return for the 32-year-old Wells, who many had deemed one of the most untradeable players in the game. Here's some reactions and details on the trade.
- The Yankees may have missed Cliff Lee, but they managed to land a top free agent when they signed Rafael Soriano for three years and $35MM. Soriano's deal has two opt-out clauses, giving him tremendous leverage. New York also signed Andruw Jones for one year and $2MM.
- The reigning NL MVP agreed to a three-year extension with the Reds. Joey Votto will earn $38MM for his arbitration years, in a move that's drawn some criticism as it doesn't seem to save the Reds much money.
- The Reds also extended Johnny Cueto on a four-year, $27MM deal and are talking about a long-term deal for Edinson Volquez.
- Billy Butler signed an extension of his own with the Royals — for four years and $30MM.
- It's not often you see an injured player leave millions on the table, but Gil Meche walked away from $12MM when he retired a year before his contract ended. A classy move in my opinion. Best of luck in life after baseball, Gil.
- The Twins finally came to terms with Carl Pavano after weeks of being close. The veteran right-hander will earn $16.5MM over the next two seasons in Minneapolis.
- Busy week out in our nation's capital — the Nats acquired Tom Gorzelanny from the Cubs, signed Jerry Hairston Jr. for $2MM on a one-year deal, and inked Todd Coffey as well.
- The Athletics made some big moves to fortify their bullpen, hammering out a two-year deal worth $8.1MM for Grant Balfour and a two-year, $10MM deal with Brian Fuentes.
- Another significant bullpen signing saw Jon Rauch sign with the Blue Jays for one year and $3.5MM, with a $3.75MM club option ($250K buyout).
- The Rays signed both Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon to one-year deals, with Damon earning $5.25MM and Manny signing for a $2MM base.
- The Mets signed Chris Young to a one-year deal that guarantees the righty just $1.1MM, a nice bargain. Some more low-cost signings included Chad Qualls in San Diego ($2.55MM guaranteed), Marcus Thames with the Dodgers ($1MM), Nick Punto in St. Louis ($700K), and Aaron Heilman in Arizona ($2MM).
- Several two-year deals were ironed out to avoid arbitration: Jason Hammel with the Rockies, Stephen Drew in Arizona, Rajai Davis with the Jays, Sean Marshall with the Cubs, and Matt Lindstrom with the Rockies as well.
- Some more notable arbitration figures included Jonathan Papelbon signing for $12MM, Prince Fielder for $15.5MM, and Heath Bell for $7.5MM. For more arbitration news, be sure to keep up to date with our arb tracker.
- Some of the many minor league signings this week included Jeff Suppan with the Giants, Jody Gerut and Nate Robertson with the Mariners, and Joe Crede with the Rockies. Be sure to check out our Transactions section for all of the week's minor moves.
Jeremy Guthrie’s Arbitration Case
Jeremy Guthrie's representatives at CAA will have to convince a panel of arbitrators that their client is worth more than $5.75MM if the sides go to a hearing. The Orioles offered the arbitration eligible 31-year-old $5MM, while he asked for $6.5MM. The discussion figures to revolve around three similar pitchers in the same service time class – Chad Billingsley, Matt Garza and John Danks – and will likely come down to durability vs. dominance.
Guthrie can point to his own durability and argue that he's worth more than $5.75MM. He has logged 812 1/3 innings in his career, more than fellow-CAA clients Garza and Danks. Garza will earn $5.95MM next year, Danks will earn $6MM and Billingsley will earn $6.275MM.
Guthrie has made at least 26 starts and logged no fewer than 175 innings in each of the last four campaigns. The other three starters cannot match the Baltimore right-hander's durability, as CAA will likely point out. Only Garza has had to compete regularly in the AL East, where Guthrie regularly faces some of the game's most potent offenses.
The Orioles, however, can argue that Guthrie's durability is compromised by inconsistent results. He led the American League in losses a year ago and posted an ERA over 5.00. None of the three other pitchers have posted an ERA that high since their rookie seasons and all of them have more wins and fewer losses than Guthrie in their careers.
Baltimore can also argue that despite Guthrie's durability, he has been hittable. The 2002 first rounder has been tagged for more hits and homers than the others, both in total and on a per-inning basis. Guthrie, the Orioles could argue, is less dominant than the other pitchers and therefore not deserving of a salary above the $5.75MM midpoint.
They could support that argument by pointing to his 4.15 career ERA (none of the others have career marks above 4.00, a seemingly arbitrary cutoff that could sway a panel of arbitrators). Despite Guthrie's high innings total, Billingsley, Garza and Danks have all struck out more hitters in their careers.
But Guthrie's representatives can point out that he has walked fewer batters than the others, both in 2010 and on a career basis. Guthrie's 2.6 B/9 mark is far better than the others, who have all walked at least 3.1 batters per nine in their respective careers.
So can the Orioles convince a panel of arbitrators that Guthrie's worth less than $5.75MM next year despite his history of durability? That's the $1.5MM question and we'll know the answer to it within a few weeks at the latest.
Poll: Most Surprising Free Agent Signing
Most of the game's top free agents are off the board, and Spring Training is rapidly approaching. The 2010-11 offseason has provided some genuine shocks in terms of free agent signings. Let's take a look at some of the biggest ones:
- Cliff Lee, Phillies, five years and $120MM: For weeks leading up to the signing, we heard that it was a two-horse race between the Yankees and Rangers. Talks of a mystery team surfacing were taken with a grain of salt until the Phillies emerged to add Lee to one of the best rotations most of us will ever see.
- Jayson Werth, Nationals, seven years and $126MM: If you'd been told a few months ago that Werth would sign the then-third biggest deal for a free agent outfielder in history — with the Nationals of all teams — would you have believed it?
- Carl Crawford, Red Sox, seven years and $142MM: Not to be outdone, Crawford one-upped Werth's deal by securing an additional $16MM. The Angels were thought to be the clear favorite, but Theo Epstein and crew had other ideas.
- Adrian Beltre, Rangers, five years and $80MM: With their infield seemingly set, aside from possibly first base, the Rangers didn't seem a fit for the Boras client. But Beltre turned down offers from two of his newest (and former) rivals in the AL West — Oakland and Los Angeles — to play in Texas.
- Rafael Soriano, Yankees, three years and $35MM: Shortly after Brian Cashman publicly declared he wouldn't surrender the Yankees' first round pick, the Yankees signed Soriano, a Type A free agent, to a three-year deal that, incredibly, includes two opt-out clauses.
- Lance Berkman, Cardinals, one year and $8MM: Certainly not as high profile as the other candidates, but with Albert Pujols entrenched at first base, this seemed an impossibility. Berkman though, will serve as St. Louis' primary right fielder after being primarily a 1B/DH since 2005.
All of these moves came as a surprise to some extent, but let's open the issue up to everyone for discussion:
Which Free Agent Signing Was The Biggest Surprise?
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Cliff Lee to the Phillies 49% (9,111)
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Jayson Werth to the Nationals 27% (5,015)
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Carl Crawford to the Red Sox 9% (1,737)
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Lance Berkman to the Cardinals 7% (1,279)
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Rafael Soriano to the Yankees 5% (1,003)
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Adrian Beltre to the Rangers 2% (324)
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A different free agent signing 2% (306)
Total votes: 18,775
Quick Hits: Cashman, Mets, Blanton, Indians, DeRosa
One year ago, the Orioles officially signed Miguel Tejada, bringing him back for his second stint with the club. Unfortunately for the O's, the veteran infielder couldn't match the numbers he'd previously put up in Baltimore, posting a .670 OPS before a July trade sent him to the Padres. While we wait to see what January 23rd will bring this year, here are a few links to browse:
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman would prefer to run a small market team, opines Bill Madden of the New York Daily News, who is beginning to think Cashman may walk away from the Yankees when his contract expires following the 2011 season.
- ESPN's Adam Rubin provides a breakdown of the Mets' 2011 payroll following Jeff Wilpon's statement that the team payroll will be in the $145MM-plus range.
- Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer makes a case for Joe Blanton's value, then says the Phillies need to sell that argument to just one other team. Brookover opines that shedding some money by dealing Blanton could give the Phils a little wiggle room to address other potential areas of need.
- Within a multi-sport mailbag, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer addresses the Indians' third base picture, which could include Jason Donald, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Jared Goedert.
- Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle takes a look at what the Giants can expect from Mark DeRosa this season. DeRosa is entering the second and final year of the $12MM deal he signed last winter.
- In their newest blog entries, the Baltimore Sun's Peter Schmuck and MASN's Roch Kubatko each discuss the most recent Orioles rumblings, with a focus on Vladimir Guerrero.
Darren O’Day, Rangers Agree To Terms
Darren O'Day and the Rangers have avoided arbitration by agreeing to terms on a one-year deal worth $1.251MM, tweets Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. O'Day had filed for $1.4MM, while the team filed for $1.05MM.
The right-hander, who posted a 2.03 ERA in 62 innings for the Rangers in 2010, was arbitration eligible for the first time, and was one of three remaining cases for Texas. As Grant points out, the club will still need to either reach an agreement or go to an arbitration hearing with Josh Hamilton, as well as Frank Francisco.
For a full rundown of the outstanding arbitration cases for the Rangers or any other team, check out our Arb Tracker.
Billy Butler Agrees To Extension With Royals
SUNDAY, 9:31am: Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star has the financial details of the deal (Twitter link). Butler will earn $3MM in 2011, and $8MM per year from 2012 to 2014. The contract also includes a $2MM signing bonus and a $12.5MM club option for 2015, with a $1MM buyout.
SATURDAY, 8:03pm: The Royals have confirmed the agreement in a press release. It's a four-year contract with a fifth year option for 2015.
10:11am: Billy Butler told MLB.com's Dick Kaegel that he and the Royals have agreed to a four-year, $30MM contract extension. The deal buys out all three of his arbitration-eligible years plus one year of free agency. Butler is represented by Greg Genske of Legacy Sports.
MLBTR's Arbitration Tracker shows that Butler filed for $4.3MM in arbitration earlier this week while the Royals countered with $3.4MM. Kansas City recently picked up an extra $12.4MM when Gil Meche unexpectedly retired.
Butler, 25 in April, has hit .309/.375/.480 with 36 homers over the last two seasons. Just 28 players boast an OPS that high during that time (min. 1,000 PA), but Evan Longoria, Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Zimmerman, Troy Tulowitzki, and Butler are the only ones to do so at age 25 or younger. Clearly, the Royals' first baseman has emerged as one of the game's most dangerous young hitters.
Kansas City owns the game's best farm system, and they've now ensured that their best position player at the Major League level will be around when some of those highly touted prospects start to arrive. MLBTR's readers discussed Butler's future with the Royals after the team traded Zack Greinke to the Brewers last month.
Cafardo On Loney, Papelbon, Pavano, Feliz
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe tackles the subject of arbitration hearings in his latest column, pointing out that teams are far more willing to settle on salaries with their players than they used to be. After speaking to Astros president Tal Smith, who says hearings don't involve as much "mud-slinging" as you'd think, Cafardo wonders why more clubs aren't inclined to fight to keep their payroll down. Here are the rest of his notes:
- James Loney won't be traded for now, but the Nationals made a "good push" for him earlier this winter, before they signed Adam LaRoche.
- According to one of Cafardo's Red Sox sources, Jonathan Papelbon will be available throughout the season, regardless of where the Sox are in the standings.
- Cafardo indicates that before Carl Pavano agreed to a two-year deal with the Twins, the Yankees offered the right-hander a one-year pact worth $7MM.
- Ron Washington offers the latest on the Rangers' plan for Neftali Feliz, who could get a chance to start this year after winning Rookie of the Year honors as a closer: "We’re going to bring [Feliz] into camp and give him an opportunity to stretch himself out. And if he shows us he’s better fitted with our ball club to start, then we’ll go in that direction. If not, we know he can close ballgames and we’re very happy with that."
- Joaquin Benoit discussed former teammates Carl Crawford and Rafael Soriano with Cafardo, opining that Red Sox pitchers will love having Crawford behind them, and expressing some surprise that Soriano won't be closing in 2011. He also told Cafardo that he was "getting a lot of phone calls" this winter from fellow relievers who felt Benoit helped them by signing early to his three-year deal.
Quick Hits: Vlad, White Sox, Rockies, Reds
Links for Saturday…
- SI.com's Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter) that the Orioles and Vladimir Guerrero haven't talked in two weeks. Team president Andy MacPhail shot down a report indicating that the two sides were close to a deal earlier today.
- White Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf told Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago that it was a tough decision to add payroll this offseason. "Last year we weren't as good as we thought we could be," said Reinsdorf. "Our attendance was down … I just decided two days before the Adam Dunn signing, 'Let's go for it.' If we spend the money, the attendance will pick up."
- Steve Foster of Inside the Rockies notes that the Rockies now have four of their five starting pitchers under contract for 2012 following Jason Hammel's two-year pact, so he looks at possible candidates for that fifth spot.
- The Cincinnati Enquirer lists the ten most lopsided trades in Reds' history with a little twist: it's the trades that did not work out for Cincy.
- SI.com's Melissa Segura tweets that the Astros have signed Jose Carlos Thompson for approximately $250K. The second baseman hit .440/.484/.729 at Western Oklahoma State, and is said to be a close friend of Aroldis Chapman's. I'm not sure if that last part has any tangible benefit though.
- Steve Dilbeck of The Los Angeles Times estimates that the Dodgers are on the hook for almost $94.5MM in payroll next season, plus another $16.3MM in deferred payments.
- Alex Speier of WEEI.com explains why the Vernon Wells' trade makes the Carl Crawford signing look even better for the Red Sox.
- Josh Shea of The San Francisco Chronicle says the moves the Athletics' made this offseason make them a serious contender for the AL West crown.
- The AP (via The Boston Herald) provides a comprehensive list of each team's free agent signings this winter. Of course, you could always use our Transaction Tracker for that and a whole lot more.
January 21st: Contract Extension Day
Two multiyear contracts were given out today (to Billy Butler and Jason Hammel), but they came a day late compared to recent history. Yesterday was the first time in five years that at least one long-term contract extension was not agreed to or finalized on January 21st, and we're not talking about a bunch of two-year deals either. Let's recap the last four years' worth of action…
- 2010: Felix Hernandez officially signed his five-year, $78MM deal. King Felix took home the AL Cy Young Award last season after posting a 2.27 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in a league leading 249 2/3 innings.
- 2010: Josh Johnson officially signed his four-year, $38MM contract as well. He contended for the NL Cy Young Award, pitching to a 2.30 ERA with 9.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 183 2/3 innings.
- 2010: Joe Blanton agreed to a three-year, $24MM deal. He pitched to a 4.82 ERA with 6.9 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 175 2/3 innings last season while battling an oblique strain. The Phillies are rumored to be looking to move Blanton and his salary, though GM Ruben Amaro Jr. recently said otherwise.
- 2009: Nick Markakis passed his physical, making his six-year, $66MM deal official. After a .306/.406/.491 season in 2008, Markakis has slipped down to .295/.358/.445 in the two years since.
- 2009: Jayson Werth agreed to a two-year, $10MM deal with the Phillies. The deal bought out his last two years of arbitration-eligibility, and he hit .282/.380/.519 with 63 homers over the life of the contract. Werth landed a much more handsome payday this offseason.
- 2008: Yadier Molina agreed to a four-year, $15.5MM deal with a fifth year option. He's hit .286/.348/.372 in the three years since signing the contract, throwing out 42% of attempted base stealers and winning three Gold Gloves as well.
- 2007: Chase Utley agreed to a seven-year, $85MM deal. The second baseman has lived up to his end of the bargain, hitting .296/.393/.518 with 102 homers and the highest UZR among players at his position in the four years since. The Phillies have won a World Series and been to another in that time, so there's no complaints from that end either.
There have been a total of 19 contract extensions handed out this winter, as MLBTR's Transaction Tracker shows. The most notable recipients include Butler, Dan Uggla, Joey Votto, Carlos Gonzalez, Ricky Nolasco, Jay Bruce, and Troy Tulowitzki. Players like Josh Hamilton, Jose Bautista, Edinson Volquez, and Carlos Marmol could be in line to receive one between now and the start of the season as well.