Archives for August 2011

We're more than three months away from the non-tender deadline, but many teams are certainly pondering the status of their arbitration eligible players.  For example, it's possible that the Twins sent Delmon Young packing this week because they did not intend to tender him a contract in December.  Let's take a look at a few prominent non-tender candidates, while acknowledging that the season is far from over.

• Luke Scott, Orioles: Scott's season, cut short by July shoulder surgery, wouldn't necessitate a big raise.  But he'd probably get some kind of increase and he's already at $6.4MM, so it's likely he hits the free agent market. 
• James Loney, Dodgers: He's likely to become a free agent at age 27, as the Dodgers will not want to pay him $5MM after the season he's had.
• Casey McGehee, Brewers: He's had a nice August and could still finish the season on a high note.  My gut says he will be tendered a contract.  However, his career body of work could lead to a $3MM arbitration salary, so the Brewers have to decide whether he'll be worth it.
• Ian Stewart, Rockies: Stewart will be earning at least $1.8MM next year if he's tendered a contract and not cut in Spring Training.  His track record and work at Triple-A this year suggest some team would strike a deal for him and the Rockies won't have to non-tender him.
• Ryan Theriot, Cardinals: A non-tender candidate last offseason, Theriot received a $700K raise following a season pretty similar to this one.  The Cards might not want him at a salary above his current $3.3MM.
• Andres Torres, Giants: He's had a couple of DL stints and has not approached his offensive production from 2010.  He's operating from a $2.2MM salary and the Giants could let him go.
• Angel Pagan, Mets: Like Torres, Pagan has fallen off big-time this year.  His current salary is $3.5MM.
• Tom Gorzelanny, Nationals: His strikeout and walk numbers are solid but the Nationals booted him from the rotation.  With his $2.1MM salary on the rise they may not keep him around.
• Mike Pelfrey, Mets: His salary next year could be around $6MM, and the Mets have to decide whether that's good value for a back-end rotation type.
• Jonathan Sanchez, Giants: While it's hard to picture the Giants losing Sanchez for nothing, he took a step backward this year and would surely earn more than $6MM in 2012.  
• Kevin Slowey, Twins: I doubt Slowey is in the Twins organization next year, but at a mild raise from this year's $2.7MM they should be able to find a taker.
• Luke Hochevar, Royals: Is it time to pull the plug?  Hochevar is due a raise on this year's $1.76MM but has made little progress from last year.
• David Aardsma, Mariners: He had Tommy John surgery in July and would earn at least $3.6MM in arbitration, so he's probably headed for free agency.
• Tony Pena, White Sox: He appears headed for Tommy John and is a likely non-tender.

Teams want their star free agents to be classified as Type As.  For example, the Mets know there is no chance of Jose Reyes accepting an arbitration offer, nor will the loss of a draft pick have a big effect on his market.  So, they can definitely expect two draft picks of some kind if he leaves.  But for other, lesser free agents, Type A status is a problem for the team.  For these guys it's understood by both sides that the loss of a pick will hurt their market, making the player more likely to accept an arbitration offer from their old team.  If the team wants the picks but has no interest in retaining the player, offering arbitration is dangerous.

Looking at our latest Elias Rankings projections, the following non-star impending free agents are currently classified as Type A:

• Nick Swisher, Yankees: There's a pretty good chance the Yankees choose Swisher's $10.25MM option over his $1MM buyout.  But if they decline the option in the name of moving on, Swisher could potentially accept an arbitration offer.
• Vladimir Guerrero, Orioles: If Vlad is a Type B, the Orioles have the chance of working out a handshake agreement for him to decline an arbitration offer, getting them a draft pick without hurting anyone.  If he remains a Type A, the chance for a pick is gone.
• Josh Willingham, Athletics: If the A's offer arbitration, there's a good chance Willingham accepts.
• Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox: If the Red Sox decide to go in a different direction at closer, perhaps to save some money, will they get draft picks from Papelbon?  He'd probably prefer the security of a multiyear deal, but accepting arbitration and getting a raise from $12MM might have some appeal.
• Jose Valverde, Tigers: The Tigers will probably just pick up his $9MM option, but if not, they have to risk him accepting arbitration if they offer.
• Matt Capps, Twins: This situation resembles Vlad's.
• Darren Oliver, Rangers: Having Oliver around next year wouldn't be such a bad thing, so the Rangers could offer arbitration and be OK with either result.
• Ramon Hernandez, Reds: I think the Reds are safe here and Hernandez would decline an arbitration offer in search of multiyear security and a guaranteed deal.
• Brandon Phillips, Reds: If the Reds decide to decline Phillips' $12MM club option, snag some picks, and move on, they'd have to consider the possibility of Phillips accepting arbitration and actually getting more than $12MM.  I think the risk of the Phillies' Jimmy Rollins accepting arbitration is lower.
• Chris Carpenter, Cardinals: He's a quality pitcher, but if the Cardinals decline his $15MM club option, they won't necessarily get draft picks if he leaves.
• Heath Bell, Padres: Bell has publicly stated he'll accept arbitration if the Padres offer.  So much for the idea of hanging on to him at the trade deadline because the Padres preferred the value of two draft picks to the offers they received.  Owner Jeff Moorad said Bell accepting arbitration is preferable for the Padres in some ways, a statement that invites skepticism.
• Francisco Rodriguez, Brewers: The Brewers worked out a deal to eliminate K-Rod's vesting option.  But with his high salary an arbitration offer is not advised, so they probably won't get picks for him.
• Others who are not currently Type A but could get there include Jason Kubel, Marco Scutaro, Chris Snyder, Raul Ibanez, Lance Berkman, Kelly Johnson, Omar Infante, Francisco Cordero, Javier Lopez, and Octavio Dotel.