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Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

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The Indians face major decisions in center field and in the rotation this offseason. GM Chris Antonetti begins the winter with the expectation that payroll will rise following a promising 2011 season.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

  • Grady Sizemore, OF: $8.5MM club option with a $500K buyout (no Elias ranking)
  • Fausto Carmona, SP: $7MM club option (would be arbitration eligible if Indians decline option)

Free Agents

The Indians' offseason begins with a pair of difficult decisions for GM Chris Antonetti. Cleveland has options for Grady Sizemore and Fausto Carmona, two of the club's longest tenured players. Neither one is guaranteed to return in 2012 and the Indians' decisions regarding the pair will shape the rest of their offseason.

The Indians have a $7MM option for Carmona, who would be arbitration eligible if the team declines the option. MLBTR projects Carmona would earn about $7.8MM if the Indians declined his option and went to arbitration with him, so it's the option or nothing in 2012. 

Carmona doesn't strike many opponents out — Indians starters as a group placed 27th in MLB in strikeout rate — but there were some positives in 2011. He pitched 188 2/3 innings and though his 5.25 ERA wasn't pretty, his xFIP of 4.17 and SIERA of 4.18 suggest his ugly ERA may have been due to bad luck. Carmona had a 54.8% ground ball rate in 2011, so he could have trade value to teams in homer-friendly parks, like the Rockies, Rangers and Yankees, even if the Indians pick up his option and guarantee him a $7MM salary. I expect Cleveland to pick the option up and given how difficult it is to obtain starting pitching, that decision would be justifiable.

Regardless of how the Indians handle Carmona's option, they'll probably pursue starting pitching depth. Ubaldo Jimenez, Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin will lead the rotation, possibly with Carmona. David Huff, Zach McAllister and Jeanmar Gomez provide manager Manny Acta with internal alternatives and Antonetti will likely add an arm or two from outside of the organization.

Sizemore's knees have limited him to 104 total games in the past two seasons, so exercising his $9MM club option ($500K buyout) would be a bet on Sizemore's health. Why would a small-market team even consider such a gamble? From 2005-08, Sizemore combined power, speed and on-base skills as one of baseball's premier center fielders. When he's healthy, he's a force, but the Indians don't seem confortable paying him $9MM in 2012.

Sizemore offers more offensive upside than free agent alternatives such as Rick Ankiel, Cody Ross and former Indians center fielder Coco Crisp. The Indians already have 24-year-old Michael Brantley, who posted a .702 OPS in 114 games and spent considerable time in center field. Rookie Ezequiel Carrera played 55 games in center, but had an OPS of just .613. If the Indians decide to pursue experience and certainty in center field and are unimpressed by the available free agents, they could turn to trade targets such as Angel Pagan and B.J. Upton. 

The Indians may pursue corner outfielders, regardless of how they handle Sizemore's option. Right-handed hitting outfielders such as Josh Willingham and Michael Cuddyer could appeal to the team. Sizemore, Brantley, Carrera and Shin-Soo Choo all bat from the left side and the Indians lineup also includes three other left-handed hitting regulars, so they may pursue right-handed hitting outfielders if possible. One such player, Matt Murton, hit .311/.339/.423 in Japan in 2011 and could be available this offseason. He just turned 30 and boasts a .788 OPS as a Major Leaguer, so Antonetti may decide to offer an incentive-based deal should Murton become available.

Jim Thome intends to play in 2012 and though he made a triumphant return to Cleveland in 2011, a new deal seems unlikely, since the Indians already have a left-handed hitting designated hitter in Travis Hafner.

First base presents more uncertainty for the Indians. Carlos Santana is a regular contributor, but Matt LaPorta hasn't produced enough at the plate in two-plus seasons and Shelley Duncan probably isn't an everyday first baseman. The Indians could pursue free agents such as Casey Kotchman if they're losing confidence in LaPorta as their primary option at first.

Second baseman Jason Kipnis and third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall have the minor league pedigree LaPorta boasted a few seasons ago. They'll enter the 2012 season with a chance to build on the successes of their rookie seasons. Meanwhile, 24-year-old Cord Phelps is another homegrown option on the infield and the versatile Jack Hannahan is also under team control.

The Indians have just $17.7MM in guaranteed contracts for 2012, but that figure will rise to the $40MM range if the club retains all of its arbitration eligible players, as expected. If the Indians pick up the options for Sizemore and Carmona, payroll would be over $55MM before accounting for minimum salary players or potential acquisitions. Antonetti says he expects the Indians to exceed this year's $49MM payroll and accommodating both Sizemore and Carmona without a substantial increase would be difficult.

Joe Smith, Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp and Vinnie Pestano will return to a bullpen that will mostly remain intact. Closer Chris Perez struggled down the stretch after making his first All-Star team, so he'll look to pitch as effectively as he did in 2010. Nick Hagadone, the 25-year-old southpaw who came to Cleveland in the Victor Martinez deal, posted a 3.35 ERA with 9.9 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 at Triple-A before making nine appearances as a September callup. He could be ready for a season-long stint in the Indians' 2012 bullpen and while there's no guarantee he'll replicate his minor league success, he deserves a shot.

Once the option decisions have been finalized and free agency has slowed down, Antonetti could explore extensions for Santana and Asdrubal Cabrera. Cabrera is closer to free agency than Santana, so the Indians would likely prioritize an extension for their shortstop. It's unlikely agent Scott Boras would encourage an extension for Choo, whose bargaining power dipped after a frustrating season.

Antonetti's first offseason as the Indians' GM led to an extended playoff run. They'll enter the 2012 season with elevated expectations and, if the winter goes according to plan, depth in the rotation and answers in the outfield.

Near Misses For Super Two Status

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Some players with more than two and less than three years of service time go to arbitration, while others don't. Going to arbitration an extra time, the right earned by baseball's super two players, is a clear advantage; super twos earn more than others in their service class.

MLBTR's Tim Dierkes has learned that 19 players qualified for super two status this year. But what about the others, those who missed the cut by a couple of weeks or a couple of days? Here are the players who narrowly missed super two status in 2011 (I'm only counting those currently on the 40-man roster of an MLB team):

These players are now on track to go to arbitration three times and hit free agency after the 2015 season. However, many will be released and non-tendered over the course of the next four seasons.

Some players on this list bounced between the majors and the minors and just happen to have fallen short. Brian Burres, for example, has not been subject to service time manipulation. Others fell short for a reason. It's not a coincidence that McCutchen, Hanson and Beckham debuted within three days of one another in June, 2009. It's not a crime, either. Teams are operating within the collective bargaining agreement when they call players up strategically and service time is never the lone consideration for clubs.

Early in the 2009 season, before Wieters made his MLB debut, I explained why the Orioles might delay his callup until early June. "He won't accumulate more than 126 days service time. This would likely prevent him from becoming a Super Two and would likely save the Orioles millions of dollars in years ahead." As frustrating as it can be for fans to wait while MLB-ready prospects play in the minors, the Orioles weren't going to contend no matter what in 2009 and they are undoubtedly better off paying Wieters $500K than $3MM in 2012.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Red Sox, Headley, Clippard

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Nine years ago today, the Devil Rays signed Lou Piniella to a four-year contract and named him their manager. As compensation for hiring Piniella away from the Mariners, Tampa sent All-Star outfielder Randy Winn and minor leaguer Antonio Perez to Seattle. Another manager was traded just a few weeks ago, as the White Sox dealt Ozzie Guillen (and minor leaguer Ricardo Andres) to the Marlins for prospects Jhan Marinez and Osvaldo Martinez. At some point in the near future, the Cubs will officially send prospects to the Red Sox and Padres for front office executives Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, and Jason McLeod.

We're not going to require any compensation for these links; here's the best the baseball corner of the internet had to offer over the last week…

If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here. Only one email per week, please.

Tigers Exercise Jose Valverde’s 2012 Option

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The Tigers announced that they have exercised their 2012 club option for Jose Valverde. The 33-year-old will earn $9MM next year instead of becoming a free agent (his contract did not include a buyout).

Valverde posted a 2.24 ERA with 8.6 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a 42.9% ground ball rate in 72 1/3 innings in 2011. He converted all 49 of his save opportunities and led the American League in saves and appearances. His average fastball checked in at 93.9 mph, down from 95.2 mph in 2010. Valverde, who signed a two-year, $14MM contract with Detroit after the 2009 season, projected as a Type A free agent this offseason.

Dan Mennella examined the fantasy baseball implications of the move at CloserNews.com, your source for fantasy updates on MLB relievers.

Baseball’s Spookiest Transactions

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It is virtually impossible to think of two more closely-related things than baseball transactions and Halloween. After all, the holiday falls just as the baseball offseason dawns. The wrong moves can haunt an organization for years, even decades. Why, even "Trick or treat" is nothing more than a trade offer turned catchphrase.

Accordingly, it is no surprise that baseball's history of moves is littered with fear-inducing tales of horror. Why, teams have traded for Jerry "Casper the Friendly Ghost" Adair and Rick Helling. Even "Bloody" Jake Evans terrorized four seperate clubs. In recent years, the Cincinnati Reds have drafted both Benjamin Mummy and Michael Monster. But to find the truly frightening, it is necessary to take a closer look at transactions occuring on that dedicated day for mayhem: Halloween itself.

Permit me to tell you a tale of a pitcher, Sterling Hitchcock, the namesake of Hollywood's greatest master of suspense. After the Cardinals acquired him in a midseason swap, he started eight games — but by the end of each, had disappeared. Then, on Halloween 2003, Hitchcock was granted free agency. A fresh start, right? Sure. That's what Scottie thought he'd get in Vertigo, too. Hitchcock joined the San Diego Padres, but was instead haunted by memories of his former team. He would have them dress up in red uniforms, referred to Tony Gwynn as "Stan the Man", and made Fredbird uncomfortable by suggesting "he probably tastes like chicken".

Now dim the lights low and prepare to be unnerved by an even more disturbing Halloween transaction. This time, Halloween 1997 was the time. The trade? Mike Bell from the Texas Rangers to the California Angels for the lethal name of Matt Perisho. For the Rangers in 1998, Perisho was stalked by a devastating walks-per-nine ratio of 14.4 — toxic for any pitcher. As for Mike Bell, merely by virtue of being associated with baseball's second-scariest trade made him a pariah, playing for organization after organization — Diamondbacks, Mets, Reds, Rockies, White Sox, Cardinals, Indians — without ever finding a home.

But the most shriek-inducing baseball transaction of all time has to be the deal (I assume signed in blood) that sent Leo Nunez from the Royals to the Marlins for Mike Jacobs on Halloween 2008. At least, the Marlins thought they were getting Leo Nunez… until things went horribly wrong. In the midst of a season in which he'd save 36 games, Nunez suddenly, without any warning… disappeared. Was it… murder?!? As it turned out, it was identity theft… most foul. Leo Nunez is really Juan Carlos Oviedo. And where is Leo Nunez? Still, to this day… nobody knows.

And things were no better for Mike Jacobs. If my interpretation of this scouting report is correct, Jacobs lost both of his legs in a grisly wheat-threshing accident. (Editor's note: Megdal wildly misintrepreted a scout's comment that Jacobs "simply doesn't walk." MLBTR regrets the error.)

So as Halloween approaches, you may be missing baseball already. You may be impatient to see your favorite team sign or trade for solutions to the problems that plagued the roster in 2011. But if you want my advice: should your team try to tinker with its roster on Halloween itself, be afraid. Be very afraid.

Yankees Likely To Retain Swisher, Pass On Beltran

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The Yankees are likely to pick up Nick Swisher's $10.25MM option for 2012 and stay out of the bidding for free agent outfielder Carlos Beltran, according to Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News. Though it looks like they'll stick with Swisher, no decisions have been finalized, according to McCarron. Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com reported yesterday that the Yankees are considering Beltran as an option in right field.

Swisher, 30, posted a .260/.374/.449 line with 23 home runs in 2011, while Beltran posted a .300/.385/.525 line with 22 homers. Beltran cannot be offered arbitration, so he won't cost a draft pick despite his Type A free agent ranking. It doesn't sound as though the Yankees would pursue both switch-hitters, but if necessary they could flip Swisher for pitching after signing Beltran.

Quick Hits: Shields, Giambi, Sizemore, Beltran

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After one of the greatest, wildest, sloppiest and most exciting games in baseball history, we're going to see a Game Seven tomorrow night.  It will be the first seventh game in the Series since the Angels needed the maximum to beat the Giants in 2002.

As we prepare for the last game of 2011, here are some news items….

  • In an interview with 620-WDAE radio (reported on by Joe Smith of the St. Petersburg Times), James Shields says he thinks the Rays will pick up his $7MM option for 2012 and he will pitch for the team next season.  The Rays are a near-lock to pick up Shields' option but they could shop the right-hander for a trade this winter.  
  • Smith also notes that Shields' option could be worth as much as $8MM depending on an innings-pitched incentive clause and how Shields fares in AL Cy Young voting.
  • Jason Giambi is considering declining his side of his $1MM mutual option for 2012, writes Troy Renck of the Denver Post.  We heard last month that the Rockies were going to pick up their side of the option, so the decision appears to be up to Giambi.
  • If Grady Sizemore had played his exact career with another team and the Indians had a chance to sign him, the Tribe wouldn't even consider the move, argues Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  That's how Pluto frames the Indians' decision about Sizemore's $9MM option for 2012.
  • The Red Sox and Giants will both be contenders for Carlos Beltran this winter, reports Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated (Twitter link).
  • The Angels should rehire former scouting director Eddie Bane, opines Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles.  Bane was fired by then-GM Tony Reagins last year but still has a good relationship with owner Arte Moreno and team president John Carpino.
  • The week's minor league transactions are recapped by Matt Eddy of Baseball America.
  • After getting burned on the Michael Gonzalez and Kevin Gregg signings, "it’s unlikely that the Orioles will spend big money on a closer" this winter, says Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com.

Padres Notes: Byrnes, Aristy, Roster Moves

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Happy 48th birthday to Bip Roberts, who joined the Padres via the Rule 5 draft and went on to play seven seasons in San Diego.  Some news from the modern-day Friars…

  • Josh Byrnes' rise from low-paid Indians intern to the Padres' new general manager is profiled by MLB.com's Corey Brock.
  • Prospect Alvaro Aristy, who signed with the Padres in July 2008 for a $1MM bonus, has been discovered to have lied about his age and name, reports Ben Badler of Baseball America.  Aristy's real name is Jorge Leandro Guzman and he is about two and a half years older than his claimed age (16) when he signed with the Padres.  Guzman is now 22 and still a prospect in the club's system.  The Padres were able to recoup about $900K of their bonus from an insurance claim.
  • Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune discusses such topics as the Padres' front office shakeup, how Byrnes has learned from his previous stint as a GM in Arizona and who the Padres might retain on their 40-man roster during his weekly live chat with fans.

David Price Among Those Reaching Super Two Status

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Players with two years and 146 days of Major League service time will qualify for Super Two status, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes has learned.  This was the same cutoff point that was predicted by CAA in April, and as MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith wrote six months ago, it is "a decidedly late cutoff."  In 2010, the cutoff date was two years and 122 days of service, while the 2009 cutoff was two years and 139 days.

Click here to refresh yourself on the details of the Super Two process, but to summarize, Super Two players will earn a fourth year of salary arbitration (as opposed to the usual three) before reaching free agency.  So, all players with less than three years of service time but at least 2.146 (two years, 146 days) of service time quality as Super Twos.

This year's crop of Super Twos includes some of the top young arms in the game — David Price, Rick Porcello, Daniel Bard, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann and Tyler Clippard.  Ryan Roberts is also a Super Two, so he could be in line for an extra payday in the wake of his breakout 2011 season.

Draft/Int’l Spending Cap Discussed In CBA Talks

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A hard slotting system for the amateur draft is no longer the main issue holding up a new collective bargaining agreement, a source tells Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus (Twitter link).  Still being discussed, however, are caps on both overall draft spending and for international signings.

Negotiations over the slotting system were thought to be the last obstacle to a new deal between Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association.  Bud Selig has been vocal about limiting draft bonuses as a way of ensuring that richer teams don't have an advantage in selecting amateur players, while the MLBPA has been equally adamant about retaining amateur players' ability to negotiate the best possible contracts.  It has been reported by Buster Olney that MLB could yield on this issue since the league doesn't want to enter protracted labor negotiations.

A "draft cap" would have to be quite high for the MLBPA to consider anything that would limit player salaries.  A compromise could be an adjustable cap based on draft order, which Goldstein reports is also being discussed.  Teams with poor records and high first-round choices would have more money to sign their picks, whereas successful teams picking near the bottom of the first round would have a smaller draft cap under which to operate.

SI.com's Melissa Segura reported earlier today that an international signing cap could be in the range of $2-$2.5MM, though it wasn't certain if this total was for all international signings or just for those from the Dominican Republic. 

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