Non-Tender Candidate: Luke Scott
Luke Scott had the best full season of his career in 2010, ranking sixth in the American League with a .535 slugging percentage. As a late bloomer with lightly-regarded defense, Scott has been going year to year through arbitration and is an oft-cited comparable due to the healthy raises he's received. In his last time through, he beat the midpoint of his and the Orioles' submissions and received a $2.35MM increase, bringing his 2011 salary to $6.4MM. Scott's offseason, of course, was better known for a Winter Meetings interview with Yahoo's David Brown than his arbitration raise.
Scott, 33, had his projected position changed twice during the offseason. When Derrek Lee was signed to play first base Scott became the designated hitter, and then he became the left fielder upon the Vladimir Guerrero signing.
Scott's season started out with a whimper as he battled a groin strain in April, and then a shoulder issue became public in May. He decided to play through a torn labrum in his shoulder, using a combination of rehab and a June cortisone injection. But then Scott bruised his knee in late June, and he landed on the disabled list a week later. During that DL stint the pain in his shoulder worsened, and after another cortisone shot and a rehab assignment he was activated in late July. It only took one game for Scott to realize he had to have surgery on his shoulder. From what I've heard, Scott is a disciplined and devoted offseason worker, and is expected to be ready for Spring Training next year.
Scott didn't add much in the way of counting stats in 2011 – nine home runs, 22 RBI, and 24 runs. So, we project his salary to be in the $6.4MM range again. Is that a worthwhile gamble for the Orioles, who have gotten power production this year from J.J. Hardy, Mark Reynolds, Adam Jones, and Matt Wieters? Scott's recovery progress leading up to the December non-tender deadline will be a big factor, but I'm leaning toward the Orioles tendering him a contract. The O's will have a lot of payroll space, and the free agent market doesn't offer much in the way of alternatives who have Scott's power potential and will sign a one-year deal under $7MM. The x factor will be a potential new GM in Baltimore, who could certainly find reasons to cut Scott as part of a mini-shakeup.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Twins Designate Chuck James For Assignment
The Twins announced today on Twitter that they've designated lefty reliever Chuck James for assignment to create a 40-man roster spot for Australia native Liam Hendriks.
James, 29, posted a 2.30 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, and 0.6 HR/9 in 62 2/3 minor league innings, but was ineffective in 10 1/3 big league frames. James won 11 games in 119 innings for the '06 Braves, but he had rotator cuff surgery in September of '08 and was subsequently cut loose.
Option Predictions: Position Players
20 position players face contractual options; the deadline is typically three days after the World Series. About 14% of the regular season remains, but let's make some predictions.
- Ryan Doumit, Pirates: $7.25MM club option for 2012, $8.25MM club option for '13 with a $500K buyout. These options must be decided in tandem after this season, and despite Doumit's production when he's been healthy this year it's highly likely they'll be declined.
- Chris Snyder, Pirates: $6.75MM club option with a $750K buyout. Snyder has missed most of the season due to back surgery, so this will be declined.
- Yadier Molina, Cardinals: $7MM club option with a $750K buyout. This one is a lock to be exercised. Before the 2012 season begins, the Cardinals will have to discuss Molina's next contract.
- Kelly Shoppach, Rays: $3.2MM club option with a $300K buyout. Shoppach has had a rough year, and this is likely to be declined.
- Eric Hinske, Braves: $1.5MM club option with a $100K buyout. Hinske has performed about as expected, so I think this will be exercised.
- Willie Bloomquist, Diamondbacks: $1.1MM mutual option with a $150K buyout. Rarely do we see both sides of a mutual option exercised, so I'll go with declined here.
- Robinson Cano, Yankees: $14MM club option with a $2MM buyout. This will surely be exercised, and his $15MM option for 2013 is looking good too.
- Bill Hall, Giants: $4MM mutual option with a $250K buyout. Not only is this option mutual, but it's kind of an automatic decline since Hall was released by the Astros and later designated for assignment by the Giants.
- Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks: $8MM club option for 2012, $8MM club option for '13. I don't think Hill's hot hitting with Arizona is enough to keep these from being declined.
- Brandon Phillips, Reds: $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout. It sounds like this option will be exercised if an extension can't be worked out, which Phillips would consider a "slap in my face." Yes, a $12MM slap in the face.
- Yuniesky Betancourt, Brewers: $6MM club option with a $2MM buyout. This one is certain to be declined.
- Ronny Cedeno, Pirates: $3MM club option with a $200K buyout. I expect Cedeno's option to be declined, as the Pirates aim to upgrade at shortstop.
- Rafael Furcal, Cardinals: $12MM club option with a $1.3MM buyout. This is an easy choice to decline, though both sides have mutual interest in a new deal.
- Marco Scutaro, Red Sox: $6MM club option/$3MM player option with a $1.5MM buyout. This is a tough one. I think the Red Sox will decline their side of it, and it's possible Scutaro can do a little better and will decline as well.
- Casey Blake, Dodgers: $6MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout. This will certainly be declined.
- Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays: $3.5MM club option with a $500K buyout. I agree with MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith; this will be exercised.
- Aramis Ramirez, Cubs: $16MM mutual option. If club declines, Ramirez receives a $2MM buyout. If club exercises and Ramirez declines, he does not receive a buyout. Ramirez has had a strong year, and there's a case for the Cubs to exercise their side since it keeps him on a one-year deal, the team has some money to spend, and the free agent market offers nothing else. I think if the Cubs exercise at that slightly inflated price, Ramirez will not void, despite his desire for a multiyear deal. Ultimately I think in November the club will decline though, and then the two sides will discuss a possible new contract.
- Nate McLouth, Braves: $10.65MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout. Certain to be declined.
- Grady Sizemore, Indians: $8.5MM club option with a $500K buyout. Sizemore's final month should be a big factor here, but I think this will be exercised.
- Nick Swisher, Yankees: $10.25MM club option with a $1MM buyout. This one is an easy choice to exercise.
- I've got 13 position players option being declined, with seven being exercised.
Barajas Hopes To Finish Career With Dodgers
Rod Barajas hopes to play the rest of his career with the Dodgers, the catcher told Steve Dilbeck of the L.A. Times. However, Dilbeck says the Dodgers are considering going cheap behind the plate next year with a tandem of Tim Federowicz and A.J. Ellis.
Federowicz will be a 24-year-old rookie next year, while Ellis will be a 31-year-old with less than a hundred games in the Majors. Typically teams prefer someone more seasoned as the backup, although Ellis did catch 515 games across nine minor league seasons.
Barajas, 36, has played to expectations after signing for $3.25MM in December. His standard good power/low on-base line comes to .236/.289/.445 in 289 plate appearances this year. Barajas noted that his comfort level is playing four or five times a week, which probably leaves more than 60 starts for the other catcher. Barajas has earned approximately $12.5MM in his career, and one way to increase his chances of staying with the Dodgers would be to drop his asking price by a few million dollars.
As Dilbeck notes, letting Barajas leave could be a way for the Dodgers to save $3MM this offseason. The Icon Sports Group client projects as a Type B free agent, but I wouldn't expect the Dodgers to offer unless they want Barajas around next year.
Furcal, Cardinals Have Mutual Interest
TUESDAY: Furcal told Strauss, "I'd want to play for St. Louis," adding that he still needs to sit down with his agent Paul Kinzer and talk business.
MONDAY: The Cardinals hope to explore a new contract with shortstop Rafael Furcal by month's end, GM John Mozeliak told Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Mozeliak acknowledged that making it work financially is a challenge, but a Furcal contract is on his to-do list for September. A shorter term is preferable for the team, and that's expected for Furcal since he's missed so much time due to injuries over the last few years.
Furcal, 34 in October, is hitting .228/.278/.390 in 134 plate appearances since the Cardinals acquired him at the trade deadline. Mozeliak has bigger fish to fry in potential free agents Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, and Chris Carpenter, so signing Furcal quickly and affordably makes sense. Technically Furcal faces a $12MM club option with a $1.3MM buyout. That'll be declined, but a one-year deal for $4MM plus incentives seems reasonable.
Arbitration Eligibles: Cleveland Indians
The Indians are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Justin Masterson, Jack Hannahan
- Second time: Shin-Soo Choo, Chris Perez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Joe Smith
- Third time: Fausto Carmona, Rafael Perez
Carmona would be arbitration eligible if the Indians decline his $7MM club option. He hasn't been great in terms of the categories that earn pitchers big bucks in arbitration, but he's done enough for the option to represent about $1MM in savings.
The Indians' group doesn't appear to have any non-tender candidates. Masterson projects to a healthy $4MM for his first time. Choo had been on the fast track to big arbitration earnings, but this year's dismal counting stats may keep him under $5MM for 2012. Perez's first 30+ save season should allow him to jump to $4.3MM. Cabrera's power surge should push him to $4.9MM or so. Hannahan, Smith, and Perez each project to fall in the $1.4-1.9MM salary range.
Assuming Carmona's option is exercised, these eight players should cost about $30MM in 2012. If the Indians pick up Grady Sizemore's option as well, they'll be around $56MM. That commitment is firmly in the middle of their last two Opening Day payrolls, though it doesn't account for minimum salary players.
Matt Swartz contributed to this post.
Blue Jays Release Brian Tallet
The Blue Jays have released left-hander Brian Tallet, according to their team transactions page. Toronto designated Tallet for assignment on Wednesday, less than 24 hours after surrendering a walk-off win to the Orioles.
That outing against the O's was Tallet's only appearance for the Blue Jays in 2011 after coming over from the Cardinals. The reliever was shelved with a broken left hand and then a right intercostal strain. In nine big league seasons, Tallet owns a 4.79 ERA with 6.6 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9.
Marlins Designate Alfredo Amezaga For Assignment
The Marlins have designated Alfredo Amezaga for assignment, according to Joe Capozzi of The Palm Beach Post (via Twitter). The 33-year-old had an OPS of just .345 in 20 games with the Marlins.
Florida acquired Amezaga from the Rockies roughly a month ago for minor league infielder Jesus Merchan. At the time, the veteran was excited to get another chance with his former club, but the reunion was short-lived. Amezaga played four seasons for the Marlins from 2006 through 2009.
NL Central Notes: Barmes, Cardinals, Cubs, Garza
Let's take a look at some news out of the NL Central, where the Brewers hold a comfortable 10.5 game lead over St. Louis..
- Astros shortstop Clint Barmes is facing free agency this offseason for the first time in his career and would like to return to the club, writes MLB.com's Brian McTaggart. General Manager Ed Wade thinks so highly of Barmes that he was not made available at the trade deadline.
- The Cardinals can't find room on the 40-man roster for Nick Stavinoha, who is headed for minor league free agency, writes Matthew Leach of MLB.com. It appears likely that the outfielder will wind up elsewhere given the lack of openings in the organization.
- Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com examines last winter's Matt Garza trade to see if the Cubs or Rays came out on top in the deal. The eight-player trade sent Garza, Fernando Perez, and Zach Rosscup to Chicago for Sam Fuld, Chris Archer, Brandon Guyer, Robinson Chirinos, and Hak-Ju Lee. Ultimately, Mooney thinks that the trade benefited both parties.
AL Central Notes: White Sox, Guillen, Tigers, Royals
Let's take a look at a few items out of the American League Central division..
- It's time for the White Sox to move on from Ozzie Guillen and work out a deal with the Marlins for him, writes Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Guillen has long been linked to the Fish and it's unlikely that octogenarian Jack McKeon will return next season.
- The Tigers appear to be the biggest trade deadline winners so far, writes Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com. Since joining the Tigs, right-hander Doug Fister has a 2.97 ERA with 5.7 K/9 and 0.5 BB/9 in six starts.
- In today's mailbag, a reader asks Baseball America's Jim Callis if the Royals will still have a top ten farm system in 2012 after several players made their major league debuts this season. Callis says that despite spending $14.1MM on the draft this year, Kansas City might not have more than four prospects in BA's top 100 next season, putting them outside of the top ten.