The End Of The Affair: When Top Picks Get Traded
Oh sure, it'll all be joy and Pirate jerseys when Pittsburgh uses its top pick tonight on, it appears, Gerrit Cole. There'll be projected arrivals, dreams of nights spent together, a limitless future.
Well, at the risk of sounding like your homely friend on Valentine's Day: good luck with that. It doesn't always happen that way. Sometimes, there's a parting of the ways. So as you see teams and draftees running into each other's arms, slow-motion, on a beach, consider these partings before you get that "Brien Taylor 4Ever" tattoo you'll live to regret.
Every pick since 2005 is still with the team that drafted them, but 2004's top pick, Matt Bush, is now on his third team. The San Diego Padres tried to get their shortstop of the future, but Bush's off-field problems, combined with an inability to hit, led the Padres to convert him to pitching, then deal him to Toronto for cash considerations. The Blue Jays released him, and Bush finds himself toiling in Double-A for Tampa Bay now. He's posted a 6.97 ERA as a reliever so far this season, with too many walks, an off-the-charts strikeout rate, and a relatively dim future.
2003's top pick, Delmon Young, is no longer with his first love either, though the Rays certainly aren't too unhappy with the way the future turned out. Young made his debut in 2006, and showed signs of becoming a strong everyday option on the outfield in 2007, posting a 91 OPS+ at age 21 while playing in all 162 games. The Rays then traded Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie to the Minnesota Twins for Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan. Garza became a star pitcher for Tampa Bay, Bartlett an everyday shortstop, while Young has struggled to build on his debut, 2010 excepted.
The Rays weren't finished, either, turning Garza into several pieces (the deal will probably be known as the Hak-Ju Lee deal in a few years), and Bartlett into four prospects as well. When people turn their first loves into younger models, they are generally castigated. When baseball teams do it, they are deservedly praised. Such is the fate of Delmon Young, The First Wives Club of recent picks. The same can be said of 2002's top pick, Bryan Bullington, who bounced around after Pittsburgh waived him in 2008. The Pirates, of course, didn't get anything for Bullington, let alone the bounty Tampa eventually pillaged for Young.
But there's a third story, the revenge served by number one picks. This is best illustrated by 1999's Josh Hamilton and 2000's Adrian Gonzalez. In each case, the drafting team gave up, in retrospect, far too quickly. Hamilton's story has a Matt Bush quality to it, of course, while Gonzalez's is just baffling.
Hamilton, following his 1999 selection, showed the ability to hit at every level- unlike Bush. However, he had persistent off-field issues, stemming from substance abuse. As a result, he didn't play in a minor league game in 2003, 2004 or 2005, and just 15 in 2006. Finally, the Rays allowed him to go unprotected into the 2006 Rule 5 Draft, and the Cubs drafted him. Cubbies win, right? Nope, Cubs sold him that same day to the Cincinnati Reds. He posted an OPS+ of 131 for the Reds in 2007, making the league minimum. Then Cincinnati traded him to Texas for Edinson Volquez and Danny Herrera, and he's been making pitchers (and guys who buy his batting practice jersey) look foolish ever since.
By contrast, the Marlins gave up on Gonzalez after just three years. The 2000 top pick posted strong numbers in 2000, 2001, and even 2002 as a 20-year-old at Double-A. And yet, fighting through an elbow injury in 2003 that curtailed his power, the Marlins decided to deal Gonzalez, Ryan Snare and Will Smith (not the Men in Black guy) to Texas for Ugueth Urbina. I guess flags fly forever, but wow, that's a lot for a rental. His power returned in 2004 and 2005, but Texas still didn't know what it had, and traded Gonzalez to the Padres, where he became one of the elite first basemen in baseball. He's now fulfilling that role for the Boston Red Sox.
But let's not assume that these top pick stories will all end in misery and missed opportunities. After all, just this weekend, 1990's top pick, Chipper Jones, hit a home run for his original team, the Atlanta Braves. Jones and the Braves are still together after all these years – sometimes love truly does conquer all.
Dodgers Designate Gibbons, Castro For Assignment
The Dodgers announced that they designated Jay Gibbons and Juan Castro for assignment (Twitter link). In related moves, the Dodgers optioned Ivan DeJesus and John Ely to the minors, activated Juan Uribe, Blake Hawksworth and Marcus Thames from the disabled list and called up top prospect Dee Gordon.
Gibbons, 34, hit .255/.323/.345 with one home run in 62 plate appearances this year after signing a one-year, $650K deal with Los Angeles in the fall. In 2010 the nine-year veteran returned to the Major Leagues after a two-year absence and hit .280/.313/.507 in 80 plate appearances for the Dodgers.
Castro, 38, appeared in seven games for the Dodgers this year and collected four singles and a walk in his 15 plate appearances. The versatile infielder split the 2010 campaign between Los Angeles and Philadelphia, posting a .194/.237/.233 line in 140 plate appearances overall.
Quick Hits: Zambrano, Stewart, Reds, Hall
We at MLB Trade Rumors are delighted that our site has been selected as one of TIME Magazine's Best Blogs Of 2011. Thanks to TIME for the tip of the cap, and thanks to all of our readers for your support in making MLBTR one of the internet's top sports news sites.
Some news items from around the league….
- Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com and David Haugh of the Chicago Tribune both feel that Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs should part ways in the wake of Zambrano's recent tirade against the club, and that the right-hander would certainly waive his no-trade clause in order to leave town.
- Levine and Haugh each cite the Yankees as a potential trade partner, though it's hard to imagine the Yankees taking on a high-priced pitcher with such baggage. It's even harder to imagine New York parting with a significant player like Joba Chamberlain or Brett Gardner in exchange for Zambrano, as Levine suggests.
- Ian Stewart is "the best player to buy low on," a non-Rockies scout tells Troy Renck of the Denver Post. For that reason, Renck feels the Rockies will hold onto the struggling third baseman until he gets back in form or at least improves his trade value.
- The Reds have won just five of their last 18 games, which has B.J. Bethel of the Dayton Daily News and John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer both calling for a "shake-up." Bethel suggests the club should look for relief pitching, a veteran starter, or a solid bat for left field and/or at third base or shortstop. Fay suggests that a prospect like Yonder Alonso, Todd Frazier or Zack Cozart could help fill those holes in the lineup, and also thinks Cincinnati could deal one of its catchers (Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan).
- Bill Hall drew some attention from the Yankees last winter and the Bombers could sign Hall for the minimum salary now that the veteran utilityman has been released by the Astros, writes Mike Axisa of the River Avenue Blues blog. As Axisa notes, Hall doesn't offer much more than what the Yankees currently have in bench options, but for a minimum salary, Hall is a no-risk signing.
Draft Links: Rendon, Bauer, Cole, Mock Drafts
We've already learned that right-hander Gerrit Cole will be the Pirates' choice with the first overall pick in today's amateur draft, and it seems that the next two picks are also starting to crystalize. "Barring huge late surprises," tweets Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com, the top three look to be Cole, Anthony Rendon (to the Mariners) and Trevor Bauer (to the Diamondbacks). Here's the latest as we're just hours away from the 2011 draft…
- Cole, Rendon and Bauer are the first three picks for Baseball America's Jim Callis in his final mock draft. This represents a reversal for Callis, who said on Friday that "[Danny] Hultzen to Arizona was the biggest lock in the first six picks." Instead, Callis has Hultzen falling to the Nationals at No. 6.
- Francisco Lindor had a great workout with the Mariners and there were rumors Seattle could take the high school shortstop with the No. 2 pick, reports Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus. Still, Goldstein predicts Seattle to draft Rendon in his latest mock since Jack Zduriencik didn't see much of Lindor in game action and, if the M's did branch out to take a high school player, they might prefer Bubba Starling.
- Marc Hulet of Fangraphs and MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo also have Cole, Rendon and Bauer as the first three picks in their last mock drafts.
- Also from Mayo, he names the ten best draft picks in history according to their placement in the draft order. For instance, Alex Rodriguez is the best first overall pick ever, Reggie Jackson is the best second overall pick ever, etc.
- Now that it appears Cole will be Pittsburgh's pick at No. 1, the second-guessing has already begun. "I think history suggests that the Pirates may be making a mistake here," writes Dave Cameron of Fangraphs, who cites the surprisingly weak crop of pitchers taken with the first overall pick. (The jury is still out, of course, on David Price and Stephen Strasburg.)
- Meanwhile, Tom Krasovic of West Coast Bias asks five scouts and an executive who they would rather draft between Cole and Bauer. Cole won the informal poll, but only by a 4-2 margin.
- Nationals owner Mark Lerner says his team won't hesitate to spend to get the draft picks they want, reports James Wagner of the Washington Post (via the Post's Adam Kilgore). "Last year we had great luck in going after kids with signability issues like A.J. Cole and Robbie Ray, and hopefully we’ll have the same opportunity again this year if the opportunity presents itself," Lerner said.
- The Rockies are looking at Hawaii second baseman Kolten Wong or UNC shortstop Levi Michael with the 20th overall pick in the first round, tweets ESPN's Keith Law. Colorado apparently won't be selecting Utah first baseman C.J. Cron.
- The Tigers have had success finding Major League players in the late rounds of recent drafts, reports MLive.com's Matt Sussman. Detroit won't have a pick until the 76th overall selection after losing its first round pick to Boston as compensation for signing Victor Martinez.
- MLBTR's Dan Mennella already posted a set of draft links earlier today, so click here for even more draft news on this busy day in baseball.
Rosenthal On Rangers, Upton, Marlins, Indians
With only five teams more than seven games out of first place, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports thinks this year's trade market could play out differently than your usual scenario of struggling teams selling to contenders. An unnamed general manager tells Rosenthal “It might be more of a reallocation of pieces than classic buying or selling…Parity also means that teams that aren’t close are saying, ‘Next year, it can be us.’ Maybe they buy a two- to three-year asset that they wouldn’t otherwise.”
Here's the latest from Rosenthal on a number of teams looking to fill needs as the pennant races begin to heat up…
- The Rangers are looking for right-handed relievers and have a number of trade chips to offer other teams. Rosenthal speculates Texas could offer Taylor Teagarden to the Giants for a righty arm, or possibly Chris Davis to the Padres or another team that is looking for offensive help.
- Todd Coffey is drawing interest from the Rangers, and Rosenthal thinks Coffey could be part of a package for Julio Borbon since the Nationals need a center fielder/leadoff hitter type.
- Of course, Washington is also looking at B.J. Upton to fill that hole in center. Rosenthal thinks it's unlikely the Rays move Upton, though they could change their minds if the Nats offer Tyler Clippard and a young positional prospect.
- The Marlins are interested in acquiring veteran bullpen help in exchange for one of their minor league relievers. Right-handers Jose Ceda, Jhan Marinez and Sandy Rosario have all attracted some attention from other clubs.
- While "the Indians’ most obvious need remains a quality starting pitcher," Rosenthal also thinks the Tribe could be in the market for right-handed hitting help. One of Rosenthal's Twitter followers asked if Cleveland could make a move for Hunter Pence, but Rosenthal doesn't think Houston will move Pence and the Indians already have Shin-Soo Choo in right field.
- The Brewers "would love to add another power arm to their 'pen," as Milwaukee relievers rank 13th in the league in K/9.
- The Diamondbacks had an interest in David Purcey before the A's dealt the left-hander to the Tigers on May 27.
- Bruce Bochy thinks rookie shortstop Brandon Crawford can be a productive Major League hitter, which would seem to lessen the Giants' chances of acquiring Jose Reyes before the deadline or trying to sign Reyes this winter in free agency.
- Rosenthal "can't see" Jim Hendry returning as the Cubs' general manager given the team's current state. "Forget about signing a free agent such as the Cardinals' Albert Pujols or the Brewers' Prince Fielder," Rosenthal writes. "The Cubs are so far gone, they are much more than one player away." Carlos Pena, John Grabow, Kosuke Fukudome, Kerry Wood and Jeff Baker are all trade candidates this summer; MLBTR's Tim Dierkes recently looked at the values of these players and others on the struggling Cubbies.
Mets Notes: Draft, DePodesta, Wright
Despite all the drama, ownership issues, trade rumors and injuries at Citi Field this year, the Mets have a 28-31 record and sit just five games out of the NL wild card. Newsday's David Lennon wonders if "can [Sandy] Alderson afford to deal away the likes of [Jose] Reyes and [Carlos] Beltran if the Mets are still showing a pulse, however faint, for a playoff spot?" In my opinion, the Mets shouldn't fool themselves into thinking they're true contenders. Putting off a rebuild for a longshot chance at the postseason is the kind of short-term thinking that has put the Mets in this tough situation in the first place.
Some more Amazin' items…
- The Mets have traditionally stuck close to MLB's slotting recommendations, but this year are prepared to pay above slot if necessary, reports Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal. Costa notes that Alderson was one of the MLB executives involved in creating the original slotting system in 2000.
- As noted in Costa's piece, only the White Sox have spent less on the draft than the Mets have in the last five years. The Mets spent $3.9MM to sign their picks from the first 10 rounds of the 2010 draft, which was roughly 4% above slot, mostly due to Matt Harvey's $2.5MM bonus.
- Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger profiles Paul DePodesta, the Mets' VP of scouting and player development and the man in charge of running the club's draft operations.
- The Mets "owe it" to David Wright to trade him, writes Bill Madden of the New York Daily News. Madden compares Wright's situation to that of Hubie Brooks, another popular Mets third baseman who didn't want to leave New York when the team dealt him to Montreal in December 1984. The Mets received Gary Carter back in that trade, however, "and you have to believe Alderson has been entertaining the same thoughts about a Wright deal being potentially similarly transforming," Madden writes.
Keith Law’s Final Mock Draft
Keith Law of ESPN.com has written up his final projections for tonight's draft. Here are some of the latest highlights (Insider subscription needed):
- The D'Backs select UCLA righty Trevor Bauer with the No. 3 pick, meaning two of the first three picks will be Bruins after the Pirates take Gerrit Cole at No. 1 overall.
- The Orioles, turned off by Virginia lefty Danny Hultzen's hefty contract demands, take prep righty Archie Bradley out of Oklahoma at No. 4. Dylan Bundy then falls to the Royals at No. 5, which Law says would be a steal, and Hultzen slides back to the D'Backs at No. 7, a "dream scenario" for Arizona. That could lead to tricky negotiations considering Hultzen's demands and the fact that the pick is unprotected after Barret Loux didn't sign last year, but Bauer and Hultzen would represent quite a boon to the D'Backs' rotation in the near future.
- The Mets meet their organizational mandate to take a pitcher at No. 13, selecting UConn righty Matt Barnes.
- The Brewers, with an unprotected pick at No. 15, need to take a signable player, and may be looking at Vanderbilt righty Sonny Gray or Oregon lefty Tyler Anderson.
- The Red Sox probably won't spend too wildly at No. 19 and could focus on a high-probability player like Alex Meyer of Kentucky as they did a year ago with Kolbrin Vitek.
Draft Links: Cole, Orioles, Phillies, Cardinals
The day of the First-Year Player Draft is finally upon us. Here's the latest news and rumors as tonight's event draws nearer …
- The Pirates, as has been speculated for several days, will take UCLA righty Gerrit Cole with the No. 1 overall pick, according to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com.
- The Orioles have long been linked to prep pitcher Dylan Bundy out of Oklahoma with the No. 4 pick, but they may be shifting focus to Archie Bradley, another prep pitcher, writes Steve Melewski of MASNSports.com.
- Ed Barkowitz of Philly.com identifies TCU lefty Matt Purke as a possibility for the Phillies with their first pick, No. 39. Purke, who was a first-round pick of the Rangers in 2009 but didn't sign, has seen his stock tumble as a result of shoulder troubles.
- Because the Cardinals have only one pick on Day 1 of the draft and only two in the top 100, they're less likely to take risky players, writes Nathan Hart of the St. Louis Post Dispatch. The Redbirds are tentatively planning to take a position player, though that is not definite.
- The Rangers are looking at Massachusetts prep righty Tyler Beede, writes Jamey Newberg of the Newberg Report, noting how difficult it can be to accurately predict draft picks.
- The Rockies are still on Utah first baseman C.J. Cron at No. 20, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post (via Twitter).
- It's never too late to draft a superstar, writes Jeff Passan of Yahoo!, who runs down some of the best steals in draft history.
- The Dodgers worked out Trevor Gretzky, Wayne's son, and Ryan Garvey, Steve's son, on Sunday, writes Ken Gurnick of MLB.com, though both players have committed to college.
- Red Sox outfielder Darnell McDonald has had a strange journey through the minors, which is why drafting two-sport stars is tricky, writes Mike Petraglia of WEEI.com. Ryan Hannable, also of WEEI.com, has tallied up the experts' projections for the Red Sox's draft picks.
- Owning the first overall pick in the draft does not guarantee future success, writes Rob Neyer of SBNation.com.
Ryan Vogelsong’s Remarkable Run
It's been almost exactly 13 years since Ryan Vogelsong signed his first contract. A fifth round selection by the Giants in 1998, Vogelsong signed on June 7 that year and began his professional career. After posting strong strikeout numbers throughout his first three minor league seasons, Vogelsong was included in a package that sent Jason Schmidt from Pittsburgh to San Francisco in 2001.
After making two appearances with the Pirates that season, Vogelsong required Tommy John surgery at age 24. Things went downhill from there, to say the least. He returned in 2003 and posted passable numbers in the minors, but struggled in the Majors that season and through his next three with the Pirates, posting a 5.87 ERA over 274 1/3 innings of work.
Following the 2006 season, Vogelsong, then 29, headed to Japan and spent three years there, pitching for the Hanshin Tigers and Orix Buffaloes with solid but unspectacular results. After coming back to the United States, he was released by both the Phillies and Angels last year after signing a pair of minor league deals.
Vogelsong didn't get his own post on MLBTR when he signed a minor league deal with the Giants this offseason. In fact, he didn't even have his own tag prior to this one. But what Vogelsong has done this year is a prime example of the value of minor league deals.
Over his last 39 1/3 innings of work, Vogelsong has allowed three earned runs, striking out 29 and walking only seven. In total, he's pitched 53 2/3 innings of 1.68 ERA ball. His 2.83 FIP and 3.64 xFIP entering play today suggest that while he hasn't been quite that good, he's still been very, very good. His fastball may not be overpowering (averaging 91.1mph), but he's mixed his pitches well enough to have struck out seven hitters per nine innings. The 42 strikeouts he's totaled are three times that of the 14 walks he's allowed.
Earlier today Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News wrote that manager Bruce Bochy said Vogelsong's rotation spot is secure, even when Barry Zito, for whom he's been filling in, returns. And, as Baggarly points out, it's not unreasonable to consider an All-Star bid for the journeyman.
Whether or not Vogelsong continues what's been a remarkable run at age 33, he should still serve as a reminder to all fans who cringe at seeing a perhaps washed-up name sign with their favorite team. Minor league deals and non-roster invites carry very little risk, but the potential for reward is sky-high. Just ask Ryan Vogelsong.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
MLBTR Originals – 5/29/11 – 6/4/11
Here's a look back at some of the original content from the MLBTR team this past week:
- Ben Nicholson-Smith examined Jose Valverde's $9MM club option for the 2012 season and tackled the implications of Jordan Lyles' big league debut for the Astros.
- Ben also took a look at what the declining production of designated hitters will mean for David Ortiz as he approaches free agency this offseason and gave an update on this year's Rule 5 Draft picks.
- Tim Dierkes' 2012 Contract Issue series came to a conclusion with this piece on the Twins. You can see the whole list (with brief summaries) here.
- Tim also listed some potentially available power bats and starting pitchers, and looked at what would happen it the D'Backs become buyers and/or the Cubs became sellers.
- For draft-related content, Ben interviewed Blue Jays' amateur scouting director Andrew Tinnish and also interviewed former general manager and current Rangers senior advisor/MLB Network analyst John Hart before taking a look at the Phillies' approach to the draft.
- Meanwhile, Tim introduced readers to the six college right-handers who are all in the Top 20 lists of ESPN's Keith Law, Baseball America, and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus.
- Mike Axisa rounded up the latest and greatest from the blogosphere in this week's edition of Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
- Dan Mennella checked in on Lance Berkman's free agent stock and predicted a deal similar to Aubrey Huff's latest contract for Big Puma if he stays healthy and productive.
- Here's the transcript of this week's chat, hosted by Tim.
- Nearly three quarters of MLBTR readers thought at least one of this season's surprise teams, the Indians and Diamondbacks, would remain in contention for the long haul in a poll conducted this week.